Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdos-Renyi (ER), Barabasi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.

Evaluation of rhamnolipid and surfactin to reduce the adhesion and remove biofilms of individual and mixed cultures of food pathogenic bacteria

Biofilms represent a great concern for food industry, since they can be a source of persistent contamination leading to food spoilage and to the transmission of diseases. To avoid the adhesion of bacteria and the formation of biofilms, an alternative is the pre-conditioning of surfaces using biosurfactants, microbial compounds that can modify the physicochemical properties of surfaces changing bacterial interactions and consequently adhesion. Different concentrations of the biosurfactants, surfactin from Bacillus subtilis and rhamnolipids from Pseudomonas aeruginosa, were evaluated to reduce the adhesion and to disrupt biofilms of food-borne pathogenic bacteria. Individual cultures and mixed cultures of Staphylococcus aureus, Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella Enteritidis were studied using polystyrene as the model surface. The pre-conditioning with surfactin 0.25% reduced by 42.0% the adhesion of L monocytogenes and S. Enteritidis, whereas the treatment using rhamnolipids 1.0% reduced by 57.8% adhesion of L monocytogenes and by 67.8% adhesion of S. aureus to polystyrene.Biosurfactants were less effective to avoid adhesion of mixed cultures of the bacteria when compared with individual cultures. After 2 h contact with surfactin at 0.1% concentration, the pre-formed biofilms of S. aureus were reduced by 63.7%, L. monocytogenesby 95.9%, S. Enteritidis by 35.5% and the mixed culture biofilm by 58.5%. The rhamnolipids at 0.25% concentration removed 58.5% the biofilm of S. aureus, 26.5% of L monocytogenes, 23.0% of S. Enteritidis and 24.0% the mixed culture after 2 h contact. In general, the increase in concentration of biosurfactants and in the time of contact decreased biofilm removal percentage. These results suggest that surfactin and rhamnolipids can be explored to control the attachment and to disrupt biofilms of individual and mixed cultures of the food-borne pathogens. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contextual and individual inequalities in dental pain prevalence among Brazilian adults and elders

This study aimed to assess the prevalence of dental pain among adults and older people living in Brazil's State capitals. Information was gathered from the Telephone Survey Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases (VIGITEL) in 2009 (n = 54,367). Dental pain was the outcome. Geographic region, age, gender, race, schooling, private health coverage, smoking, and soft drink consumption were the explanatory variables. Multilevel Poisson regression models were performed. Prevalence of dental pain was 15.2%; Macapa and Sao Luis had prevalence rates greater than 20%; all capitals in the South and Southeast, plus Cuiaba, Campo Grande, Maceio, Recife, and Natal had prevalence rates less than 15%. Factors associated with increased prevalence of dental pain were the North and Northeast regions, female gender, black/brown skin color, lack of private health insurance, smoking, and soft drink consumption. Dental pain is a public health problem that should be monitored by health surveillance systems.

Structure and mechanism of diet specialisation: testing models of individual variation in resource use with sea otters

Studies of consumer-resource interactions suggest that individual diet specialisation is empirically widespread and theoretically important to the organisation and dynamics of populations and communities. We used weighted networks to analyze the resource use by sea otters, testing three alternative models for how individual diet specialisation may arise. As expected, individual specialisation was absent when otter density was low, but increased at high-otter density. A high-density emergence of nested resource-use networks was consistent with the model assuming individuals share preference ranks. However, a density-dependent emergence of a non-nested modular network for core resources was more consistent with the competitive refuge model. Individuals from different diet modules showed predictable variation in rank-order prey preferences and handling times of core resources, further supporting the competitive refuge model. Our findings support a hierarchical organisation of diet specialisation and suggest individual use of core and marginal resources may be driven by different selective pressures.

Analysis of plant LTR-retrotransposons at the fine-scale family level reveals individual molecular patterns

Background: Sugarcane is an important crop worldwide for sugar production and increasingly, as a renewable energy source. Modern cultivars have polyploid, large complex genomes, with highly unequal contributions from ancestral genomes. Long Terminal Repeat retrotransposons (LTR-RTs) are the single largest components of most plant genomes and can substantially impact the genome in many ways. It is therefore crucial to understand their contribution to the genome and transcriptome, however a detailed study of LTR-RTs in sugarcane has not been previously carried out. Results: Sixty complete LTR-RT elements were classified into 35 families within four Copia and three Gypsy lineages. Structurally, within lineages elements were similar, between lineages there were large size differences. FISH analysis resulted in the expected pattern of Gypsy/heterochromatin, Copia/euchromatin, but in two lineages there was localized clustering on some chromosomes. Analysis of related ESTs and RT-PCR showed transcriptional variation between tissues and families. Four distinct patterns were observed in sRNA mapping, the most unusual of which was that of Ale1, with very large numbers of 24nt sRNAs in the coding region. The results presented support the conclusion that distinct small RNA-regulated pathways in sugarcane target the lineages of LTR-RT elements. Conclusions: Individual LTR-RT sugarcane families have distinct structures, and transcriptional and regulatory signatures. Our results indicate that in sugarcane individual LTR-RT families have distinct behaviors and can potentially impact the genome in diverse ways. For instance, these transposable elements may affect nearby genes by generating a diverse set of small RNA's that trigger gene silencing mechanisms. There is also some evidence that ancestral genomes contribute significantly different element numbers from particular LTR-RT lineages to the modern sugarcane cultivar genome.

Thermal efficiency of fiber cement corrugated sheets applied to individual housing for calves exposed to sun and shade

This research presents a study of roof thermal efficiency in individual housing for calves exposed to sun and shade through infrared thermography, internal temperature and thermal comfort indexes. Four different individual housing for calves covered with asbestos-free fiber-cement corrugated sheets were evaluated. Three of them were directly exposed to the sun: (i) corrugated sheets painted white in the external surface, (ii) corrugated sheets without painting and (iii) with screen shade fabric installed 0.10m under de internal surface of the corrugated sheet. The fourth individual housing was installed in the shade area and covered with unpainted corrugated fiber-cement sheets. The analysis was taken for 21 days at 11h00min, 14h00min and 17h00min. The results indicate significant variations in the roofing surface temperature and thermal comfort indexes among the treatments exposed to the sun and shade, for all the evaluations during the day. The infrared thermography images were effective for better understanding the heat transfer processes from the roof to the internal environment of the housing.

TRANSLATION AND CULTURAL ADAPTATION OF THE GLOBAL APPRAISAL OF INDIVIDUAL NEEDS - INITIAL

The objective of this study was to perform the translation on and cultural adaptation of the Global Appraisal of Individual Needs - Initial instrument, and calculate its content validity index. This is a methodological study designed for the cultural adaptation of the instrument. The instrument was translated into Portuguese in two versions that originated the synthesis of the translations, which were then submitted to the evaluation of four judges, experts in the field of alcohol and other drugs. After the suggested changes were made, the instrument was back-translated and resubmitted to the judges and authors of the original instrument, resulting in the final version of the instrument, Avaliacao Global das Necessidades Individuais - Inicial. The content validity index of the instrument was 0.91, considered valid according to the literature. The instrument Avaliacao Global das Necessidades Individuais - Inicial was culturally adapted to the Portuguese language spoken in Brazil; however, it was not submitted to tests with the target population, which suggests further studies should be performed to test its reliability and validity.

In Vitro Macroscopic and Endoscopic Analysis of Three-Rooted Maxillary Premolars and Two-Rooted Mandibular Premolars in the Same Individual: a Case Report

The recent addition of endoscopy in dental practice has enabled clinicians to have an excellent view of the operative field, yielding highly successful visualization of anatomical structures that are difficult to access, both in oral surgery and endodontics. The purpose of this report is to provide an in vitro macroscopic, radiographic, and endoscopic description of the anatomic variation of the roots of maxillary and mandibular first premolars in the same patient. A 22-year-old patient was referred by an orthodontist for the extraction of all the first premolars. Once extracted, the premolars were examined macroscopically and then analyzed radiographically after trepanation and filled root canal systems. Subsequently, a diaphanization process was carried out and the samples were sectioned at the middle and apical third for observation by endoscope. It was found that both the maxillary first premolars had three roots, and mandibular first premolars had two roots, all with complete root formation. Apical deltas or accessory canals were not identified in the radiographic images; however, through endoscope at the middle third, it was possible to observe an accessory canal to the first maxillary and mandibular right premolars. Thus, it can be concluded that the view through the endoscope allows better identification of accessory canals than X-rays.

Is income area level associated with blood pressure in adults regardless of individual-level characteristics? A multilevel approach

This population-based health survey was carried out in Florianopolis, Brazil, to assess the association between adult systolic blood pressure (SBP) and contextual income level, after controlling for potential individual-level confounders. A statistically significant negative association between SBP levels and contextual income was identified after adjusting for individual-level characteristics. SBP levels in the highest and in the intermediate tertiles of contextual income were 5.78 and 2.82 mmHg lower, respectively, than that observed in the bottom tertile. The findings suggest an association between income area level and blood pressure, regardless of well-known individual-level hypertension risk factors. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-regional wage differentials with individual heterogeneity: evidence from Brazil

This paper uses administrative data to follow Brazilian workers over time and examine what happens to the inter-regional wage differentials after controlling for unmeasured workers' characteristics that are fixed over time. Since the data allow us to track the same workers over the years, we are in the unusual position of obtaining the individual wages before and after the migration process. As a significant share of workers changed States in the sample period, it is possible to examine to what extent the wage differentials reflect the concentration of high-skilled individuals in some States. The results show that the overall wage variability across States drops to almost one third of its original value and the ranking of the State effects is significantly altered after we take into account the workers' fixed effects. A great deal of the inter-regional differentials, therefore, reflects differences in the average ability of workers across States.

Differences between female and male adolescents regarding individual vulnerability to HIV

The objective of this study was to comparatively analyze male and female adolescents' vulnerability to HIV/AIDS, based on their knowledge, values and practices. This is an exploratory-descriptive study, performed using a quantitative approach. The students answered a questionnaire from which relevant questions were selected for the analysis. The participants were 207 adolescents, 43.5% male and 56.5% female. Most adolescents report having initiated sexual activities. It was observed that the participants have knowledge deficits regarding HIV transmission and safe sexual practices. Although they report knowing about condom use as a method of protection against HIV, they do not always use them. It was observed that there are values connected to the representations of gender, but it is noticed there is an evolution regarding the autonomy and power of the girls' negotiation regarding condom use.

Vaginal progesterone in women with an asymptomatic sonographic short cervix in the midtrimester decreases preterm delivery and neonatal morbidity: a systematic review and metaanalysis of individual patient data

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the use of vaginal progesterone in asymptomatic women with a sonographic short cervix (<= 25 mm) in the midtrimester reduces the risk of preterm birth and improves neonatal morbidity and mortality. STUDY DESIGN: Individual patient data metaanalysis of randomized controlled trials. RESULTS: Five trials of high quality were included with a total of 775 women and 827 infants. Treatment with vaginal progesterone was associated with a significant reduction in the rate of preterm birth <33 weeks (relative risk [RR], 0.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42-0.80), <35 weeks (RR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.55-0.88), and <28 weeks (RR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.30-0.81); respiratory distress syndrome (RR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.30-0.76); composite neonatal morbidity and mortality (RR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.40-0.81); birthweight <1500 g (RR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.38-0.80); admission to neonatal intensive care unit (RR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.59-0.94); and requirement for mechanical ventilation (RR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.44-0.98). There were no significant differences between the vaginal progesterone and placebo groups in the rate of adverse maternal events or congenital anomalies. CONCLUSION: Vaginal progesterone administration to asymptomatic women with a sonographic short cervix reduces the risk of preterm birth and neonatal morbidity and mortality.

Probing the cosmic distance-duality relation with the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect, X-ray observations and supernovae Ia

Context. The angular diameter distances toward galaxy clusters can be determined with measurements of Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect and X-ray surface brightness combined with the validity of the distance-duality relation, D-L(z)(1 + z)(2)/D-A(z) = 1, where D-L(z) and D-A(z) are, respectively, the luminosity and angular diameter distances. This combination enables us to probe galaxy cluster physics or even to test the validity of the distance-duality relation itself. Aims. We explore these possibilities based on two different, but complementary approaches. Firstly, in order to constrain the possible galaxy cluster morphologies, the validity of the distance-duality relation (DD relation) is assumed in the Lambda CDM framework (WMAP7). Secondly, by adopting a cosmological-model-independent test, we directly confront the angular diameters from galaxy clusters with two supernovae Ia (SNe Ia) subsamples (carefully chosen to coincide with the cluster positions). The influence of the different SNe Ia light-curve fitters in the previous analysis are also discussed. Methods. We assumed that eta is a function of the redshift parametrized by two different relations: eta(z) = 1 +eta(0)z, and eta(z) = 1 + eta(0)z/(1 + z), where eta(0) is a constant parameter quantifying the possible departure from the strict validity of the DD relation. In order to determine the probability density function (PDF) of eta(0), we considered the angular diameter distances from galaxy clusters recently studied by two different groups by assuming elliptical and spherical isothermal beta models and spherical non-isothermal beta model. The strict validity of the DD relation will occur only if the maximum value of eta(0) PDF is centered on eta(0) = 0. Results. For both approaches we find that the elliptical beta model agrees with the distance-duality relation, whereas the non-isothermal spherical description is, in the best scenario, only marginally compatible. We find that the two-light curve fitters (SALT2 and MLCS2K2) present a statistically significant conflict, and a joint analysis involving the different approaches suggests that clusters are endowed with an elliptical geometry as previously assumed. Conclusions. The statistical analysis presented here provides new evidence that the true geometry of clusters is elliptical. In principle, it is remarkable that a local property such as the geometry of galaxy clusters might be constrained by a global argument like the one provided by the cosmological distance-duality relation.

Constraining the dark energy and smoothness parameter with type Ia supernovae and gamma-ray bursts

The existence of inhomogeneities in the observed Universe modifies the distance-redshift relations thereby affecting the results of cosmological tests in comparison to the ones derived assuming spatially uniform models. By modeling the inhomogeneities through a Zeldovich-Kantowski-Dyer-Roeder approach which is phenomenologically characterized by a smoothness parameter alpha, we rediscuss the constraints on the cosmic parameters based on type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) data. The present analysis is restricted to a flat Lambda CDM model with the reasonable assumption that Lambda does not clump. A chi(2) analysis using 557 SNe Ia data from the Union2 compilation data (R. Amanullah et al., Astrophys. J. 716, 712 (2010).) constrains the pair of parameters (Omega(m), alpha) to Omega(m) = 0.27(-0.03)(+0.08) (2 sigma) and alpha >= 0.25. A similar analysis based only on 59 Hymnium GRBs (H. Wei, J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys. 08 (2010) 020.) constrains the matter density parameter to be Omega(m) = 0.35(-0.24)(+0.62) (2 sigma) while all values for the smoothness parameter are allowed. By performing a joint analysis, it is found that Omega(m) = 0.27(-0.06)(+0.06) and alpha >= 0.52. As a general result, although considering that current GRB data alone cannot constrain the smoothness alpha parameter, our analysis provides an interesting cosmological probe for dark energy even in the presence of inhomogeneities.

Contextual and individual assessment of dental pain period prevalence in adolescents: a multilevel approach

Abstract Background Despite evidence that health and disease occur in social contexts, the vast majority of studies addressing dental pain exclusively assessed information gathered at individual level. Objectives To assess the association between dental pain and contextual and individual characteristics in Brazilian adolescents. In addition, we aimed to test whether contextual Human Development Index is independently associated with dental pain after adjusting for individual level variables of socio-demographics and dental characteristics. Methods The study used data from an oral health survey carried out in São Paulo, Brazil, which included dental pain, dental exams, individual socioeconomic and demographic conditions, and Human Development Index at area level of 4,249 12-year-old and 1,566 15-year-old schoolchildren. The Poisson multilevel analysis was performed. Results Dental pain was found among 25.6% (95%CI = 24.5-26.7) of the adolescents and was 33% less prevalent among those living in more developed areas of the city than among those living in less developed areas. Girls, blacks, those whose parents earn low income and have low schooling, those studying at public schools, and those with dental treatment needs presented higher dental-pain prevalence than their counterparts. Area HDI remained associated with dental pain after adjusting for individual level variables of socio demographic and dental characteristics. Conclusions Girls, students whose parents have low schooling, those with low per capita income, those classified as having black skin color and those with dental treatment needs had higher dental pain prevalence than their counterparts. Students from areas with low Human Development Index had higher prevalence of dental pain than those from the more developed areas regardless of individual characteristics.