8 resultados para structural models of credit risk

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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Background: In addition to the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV), several cofactors are needed in cervical carcinogenesis, but whether the HPV covariates associated with incident i) CIN1 are different from those of incident ii) CIN2 and iii) CIN3 needs further assessment. Objectives: To gain further insights into the true biological differences between CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, we assessed HPV covariates associated with incident CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3. Study Design and Methods: HPV covariates associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 were analysed in the combined cohort of the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS study (n = 12,114), using competing-risks regression models (in panel data) for baseline HR-HPV-positive women (n = 1,105), who represent a sub-cohort of all 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in these two studies. Results: Altogether, 90 (4.8%), 39 (2.1%) and 14 (1.4%) cases progressed to CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3, respectively. Among these baseline HR-HPV-positive women, the risk profiles of incident GIN I, CIN2 and CIN3 were unique in that completely different HPV covariates were associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, irrespective which categories (non-progression, CIN1, CIN2, CIN3 or all) were used as competing-risks events in univariate and multivariate models. Conclusions: These data confirm our previous analysis based on multinomial regression models implicating that distinct covariates of HR-HPV are associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3. This emphasises true biological differences between the three grades of GIN, which revisits the concept of combining CIN2 with CIN3 or with CIN1 in histological classification or used as a common end-point, e.g., in HPV vaccine trials.

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Background: The complex natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections following a single HPV test can be modeled as competing-risks events (i.e., no-, transient- or persistent infection) in a longitudinal setting. The covariates associated with these compet ng events have not been previously assessed using competing-risks regression models. Objectives: To gain further insights in the outcomes of cervical HPV infections, we used univariate- and multivariate competing-risks regression models to assess the covariaies associated with these competing events. Study Design and Methods: Covariates associated with three competing outcomes (no-, transient- or persistent HR-HPV infection) were analysed in a sub-cohort of 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS Study (n = 12,114). Results: In multivariate competing-risks models (with two other outcomes as competing events), permanently HR-HPV negative outcome was significantly predicted only by the clearance of ASCUS+Pap during FU, while three independent covariates predicted transient HR-HPV infections: i) number of recent (< 12 months) sexual partners (risk increased), ii) previous Pap screening history (protective), and history of previous CIN (increased risk). The two most powerful predictors of persistent HR-HPV infections were persistent ASCUS+Pap (risk increased), and previous Pap screening history (protective). In pair-wise comparisons, number of recent sexual partners and previous CIN history increase the probability of transient HR-HPV infection against the HR-HPV negative competing event, while previous Pap screening history is protective. Persistent ASCUS+Pap during FU and no previous Pap screening history are significantly associated with the persistent HR-HPV outcome (compared both with i) always negative, and ii) transient events), whereas multiparity is protective. Conclusions: Different covariates are associated with the three main outcomes of cervical HPV infections. The most significant covariates of each competing events are probably distinct enough to enable constructing of a risk-profile for each main outcome.

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Cognitive dissonance is the stress that comes from holding two conflicting thoughts simultaneously in the mind, usually arising when people are asked to choose between two detrimental or two beneficial options. In view of the well-established role of emotions in decision making, here we investigate whether the conventional structural models used to represent the relationships among basic emotions, such as the Circumplex model of affect, can describe the emotions of cognitive dissonance as well. We presented a questionnaire to 34 anonymous participants, where each question described a decision to be made among two conflicting motivations and asked the participants to rate analogically the pleasantness and the intensity of the experienced emotion. We found that the results were compatible with the predictions of the Circumplex model for basic emotions. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Empirical approaches and, more recently, physical approaches, have grounded the establishment of logical connections between radiometric variables derived from remote data and biophysical variables derived from vegetation cover. This study was aimed at evaluating correlations of dendrometric and density data from canopies of Eucalyptus spp., as collected in Capao Bonito forest unit, with radiometric data from imagery acquired by the TM/Landsat-5 sensor on two orbital passages over the study site (dates close to field data collection). Results indicate that stronger correlations were identified between crown dimensions and canopy height with near-infrared spectral band data (rho(s)4), irrespective of the satellite passage date. Estimates of spatial distribution of dendrometric data and canopy density (D) using spectral characterization were consistent with the spatial distribution of tree ages during the study period. Statistical tests were applied to evaluate performance disparities of empirical models depending on which date data were acquired. Results indicated a significant difference between models based on distinct data acquisition dates.

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Objective: To compare two models of pulmonary hypertension (monocrotaline and monocrotaline+pneumonectomy) regarding hemodynamic severity, structure of pulmonary arteries, inflammatory markers (IL-1 and PDGF), and 45-day survival. Methods: We used 80 Sprague-Dawley rats in two study protocols: structural analysis; and survival analysis. The rats were divided into four groups: control; monocrotaline (M), pneumonectomy (P), and monocrotaline+pneumonectomy (M+P). In the structural analysis protocol, 40 rats (10/group) were catheterized for the determination of hemodynamic variables, followed by euthanasia for the removal of heart and lung tissue. The right ventricle (RV) was dissected from the interventricular septum (IS), and the ratio between RV weight and the weight of the left ventricle (LV) plus IS (RV/LV+IS) was taken as the index of RV hypertrophy. In lung tissues, we performed histological analyses, as well as using ELISA to determine IL-1 and PDGF levels. In the survival protocol, 40 animals (10/group) were followed for 45 days. Results: The M and M+P rats developed pulmonary hypertension, whereas the control and P rats did not. The RV/LV+IS ratio was significantly higher in M+P rats than in M rats, as well as being significantly higher in M and M+P rats than in control and P rats. There were no significant differences between the M and M+P rats regarding the area of the medial layer of the pulmonary arteries; IL-1 and PDGF levels; or survival. Conclusions: On the basis of our results, we cannot conclude that the monocrotaline+pneumonectomy model is superior to the monocrotaline model.

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Background Longitudinal epidemiological studies involving child/adolescent mental health problems are scarce in developing countries, particularly in regions characterized by adverse living conditions. We examined the influence of psychosocial factors on the trajectory of child/adolescent mental health problems (CAMHP) over time. Methods A population-based sample of 6- to 13-year-olds with CAMHP was followed-up from 2002–2003 (Time 1/T1) to 2007–2008 (Time 2/T2), with 86 out of 124 eligible children/adolescents at T1 being reassessed at T2 (sample loss: 30.6%). Outcome: CAMHP at T2 according to the Child Behavior Checklist/CBCL’s total problem scale. Psychosocial factors: T1 variables (child/adolescent’s age, family socioeconomic status); trajectory of variables from T1 to T2 (child/adolescent exposure to severe physical punishment, mother exposure to severe physical marital violence, maternal anxiety/depression); and T2 variables (maternal education, child/adolescent’s social support and pro-social activities). Results Multivariate analysis identified two risk factors for child/adolescent MHP at T2: aggravation of child/adolescent physical punishment and aggravation of maternal anxiety/depression. Conclusions The current study shows the importance of considering child/adolescent physical punishment and maternal anxiety/depression in intervention models and mental health care policies.

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The enzyme chitinase from Moniliophthora perniciosa the causative agent of the witches' broom disease in Theobroma cacao, was partially purified with ammonium sulfate and filtration by Sephacryl S-200 using sodium phosphate as an extraction buffer. Response surface methodology (RSM) was used to determine the optimum pH and temperature conditions. Four different isoenzymes were obtained: ChitMp I, ChitMp II, ChitMp III and ChitMp IV. ChitMp I had an optimum temperature at 44-73ºC and an optimum pH at 7.0-8.4. ChitMp II had an optimum temperature at 45-73ºC and an optimum pH at 7.0-8.4. ChitMp III had an optimum temperature at 54-67ºC and an optimum pH at 7.3-8.8. ChitMp IV had an optimum temperature at 60ºC and an optimum pH at 7.0. For the computational biology, the primary sequence was determined in silico from the database of the Genome/Proteome Project of M. perniciosa, yielding a sequence with 564 bp and 188 amino acids that was used for the three-dimensional design in a comparative modeling methodology. The generated models were submitted to validation using Procheck 3.0 and ANOLEA. The model proposed for the chitinase was subjected to a dynamic analysis over a 1 ns interval, resulting in a model with 91.7% of the residues occupying favorable places on the Ramachandran plot and an RMS of 2.68.

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Catenary risers can present during installation a very low tension close to seabed, which combined with torsion moment can lead to a structural instability, resulting in a loop. This is undesirable once it is possible that the loop turns into a kink, creating damage. This work presents a numerical methodology to analyze the conditions of loop formation in catenary risers. Stability criteria were applied to finite element models, including geometric nonlinearities and contact constraint due to riser-seabed interaction. The classical Greenhill's formula was used to predict the phenomenon and parametric analysis shows a “universal plot” able to predict instability in catenaries using a simple equation that can be applied for typical risers installation conditions and, generically, for catenary lines under torsion.