13 resultados para probability indicator

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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Imposex is the development of male sexual characteristics, i.e., penis and/or vas deferens in females of dioecious gastropods. This phenomenon has been associated to the use of the organotin based marine antifouling paints and used worldwide as a bioindicator of pollution by the TBT (antifouling agent) as well as to evaluate the related ecological impact. This study reports imposex in Stramonita haemastoma at south coast of Rio de Janeiro State (Brazil), specifically at Sepetiba and Ilha Grande Bays. All the stations where snails were found have shown imposex. Ilha Grande Bay presented the highest values of imposex indices when compared to Sepetiba Bay. The results suggest that high concentration of shipping activities and coastal morphology are the principal causes at the most polluted sites.

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The scope of this paper was to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in Sao Paulo between 1996 and 2008, after monitoring the unemployment rate and the proportion of youths in the population. A time-series ecological study for 1996 and 2008 was conducted with Sao Paulo as the unit of analysis. Dependent variable: number of deaths by homicide per year. Main independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate, access to firearms, police activity. Data analysis was conducted using Stata. IC 10.0 software. Simple and multivariate negative binomial regression models were created. Deaths by homicide and arrest-incarceration, as well as police activity were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearms was not significantly associated to the reduction in the number of deaths by homicide (p>0,05). After adjustment, the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. In Sao Paulo the role of public security indicators are less important as explanatory factors for a reduction in homicide rates, after adjustment for unemployment rate and a reduction in the proportion of youths. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for a change in the public security scenario in Sao Paulo.

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This descriptive study addresses the job satisfaction of nurse managers and clinical nurses working at the Hematology and Hemotherapy Services of a public hospital in Sao Paulo. The study objectives were to identify the factors that caused job satisfaction among nurse managers and clinical nurses, and support the results in the development of indicators to evaluate the quality of nursing human resource management. The components of the study were: autonomy, interaction, professional status, job requirements, organizational norms and remuneration. Participants were 44 nurses. Data were collected using a Job Satisfaction Index (JSI) questionnaire. In conclusion, this study permitted the identification of the clinical nurse group, which was the most satisfied, with a JSI of 10.5; the managerial group scored 10.0. Regarding the satisfaction levels in regards to the current activity, 88.9% of the nurse managers reported feeling satisfied, as did 90.9% of clinical nurses. For both groups, autonomy was the component with the highest level of professional satisfaction.

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Long-haul drivers work in irregular schedules due to load delivery demands. In general, driving and sleeping occur at irregular times and, consequently, partial sleep deprivation and/or circadian misalignment may emerge and result in sleepiness at the wheel. In this way, the aim of this study was to verify changes in the postural control parameters of professional drivers after one-night working. Eight male truck drivers working at night - night drivers (ND) and nine day drivers (DD) volunteered to participate in this study. The night drivers' postural stability was assessed immediately before and after an approximately 430 km journey by two identical force platforms at departure and arrival sites. The DD group was measured before and after a day's work. An interaction effect of time of day and type of shift in both conditions: eyes open (p < 0.01) and eyes closed (p < 0.001) for amplitude of mediolateral movements was observed. Postural stability, measured by force platform, is affected by a night of work, suggesting that it could be an effect of circadian and homeostatic influences over postural control.

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the methodology to establish the hemolytic activity of alternative complement pathway as an indicator of the innate immunity in Brazilian fish pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus), in addition to verifying the influence of beta-glucan as an immunostimulant. Fish were fed with diets containing 0, 0.1 and 1% beta-glucan, during seven days, and then inoculated with Aeromonas hydrophila. Seven days after the challenge, they were bled for serum extraction. The methodology consisted of a kinetic assay that allows calculating the required time for serum proteins of the complement to promote 50% lysis of a rabbit red blood cell suspension. The method developed in mammals was successfully applied for pacu and determined that the hemolytic activity of the proteins of the complement system (alternative pathway) increased after the pathogen challenge, but was not influenced by the beta-glucan treatment.

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Forensic age estimation is an important element of anthropological research, as it produces one of the primary sources of data that researchers use to establish the identity of a person living or the identity of unknown bodily remains. The aim of this study was to determine if the chronology of third molar mineralization could be an accurate indicator of estimated age in a sample Brazilian population. If so, mineralization could determine the probability of an individual being 18 years or older. The study evaluated 407 panoramic radiographs of males and females from the past 5 years in order to assess the mineralization status of the mandibular third molars. The evaluation was carried out using an adaptation of Demirjian's system. The results indicated a strong correlation between chronological age and the mineralization of the mandibular third molars. The results indicated that modern Brazilian generation tends to demonstrate an earlier mandibular third molar mineralization than older Brazilian generation and people of other nationalities. Males reached developmental stages slightly earlier than females, but statistically significant differences between the sex were not found. The probability that an individual with third molar mineralization stage H had reached an age of 18 years or older was 96.8-98.6% for males and females, respectively. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper analyzes concepts of independence and assumptions of convexity in the theory of sets of probability distributions. The starting point is Kyburg and Pittarelli's discussion of "convex Bayesianism" (in particular their proposals concerning E-admissibility, independence, and convexity). The paper offers an organized review of the literature on independence for sets of probability distributions; new results on graphoid properties and on the justification of "strong independence" (using exchangeability) are presented. Finally, the connection between Kyburg and Pittarelli's results and recent developments on the axiomatization of non-binary preferences, and its impact on "complete" independence, are described.

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Objectives To evaluate the accuracy and probabilities of different fetal ultrasound parameters to predict neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods Between January 2004 and December 2010, we evaluated prospectively 108 fetuses with isolated CDH (82 left-sided and 26 right-sided). The following parameters were evaluated: gestational age at diagnosis, side of the diaphragmatic defect, presence of polyhydramnios, presence of liver herniated into the fetal thorax (liver-up), lung-to-head ratio (LHR) and observed/expected LHR (o/e-LHR), observed/expected contralateral and total fetal lung volume (o/e-ContFLV and o/e-TotFLV) ratios, ultrasonographic fetal lung volume/fetal weight ratio (US-FLW), observed/expected contralateral and main pulmonary artery diameter (o/e-ContPA and o/eMPA) ratios and the contralateral vascularization index (Cont-VI). The outcomes were neonatal death and severe postnatal pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Results Neonatal mortality was 64.8% (70/108). Severe PAH was diagnosed in 68 (63.0%) cases, of which 63 died neonatally (92.6%) (P < 0.001). Gestational age at diagnosis, side of the defect and polyhydramnios were not associated with poor outcome (P > 0.05). LHR, o/eLHR, liver-up, o/e-ContFLV, o/e-TotFLV, US-FLW, o/eContPA, o/e-MPA and Cont-VI were associated with both neonatal death and severe postnatal PAH (P < 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristics curves indicated that measuring total lung volumes (o/e-TotFLV and US-FLW) was more accurate than was considering only the contralateral lung sizes (LHR, o/e-LHR and o/e-ContFLV; P < 0.05), and Cont-VI was the most accurate ultrasound parameter to predict neonatal death and severe PAH (P < 0.001). Conclusions Evaluating total lung volumes is more accurate than is measuring only the contralateral lung size. Evaluating pulmonary vascularization (Cont-VI) is the most accurate predictor of neonatal outcome. Estimating the probability of survival and severe PAH allows classification of cases according to prognosis. Copyright (C) 2011 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Abstract Background Smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPTB) accounts for 30% of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) cases reported annually in developing nations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) may provide an alternative for the rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB); however little data are available regarding the clinical utility of PCR in SNPTB, in a setting with a high burden of TB/HIV co-infection. Methods To evaluate the performance of the PCR dot-blot in parallel with pretest probability (Clinical Suspicion) in patients suspected of having SNPTB, a prospective study of 213 individuals with clinical and radiological suspicion of SNPTB was carried out from May 2003 to May 2004, in a TB/HIV reference hospital. Respiratory specialists estimated the pretest probability of active disease into high, intermediate, low categories. Expectorated sputum was examined by direct microscopy (Ziehl-Neelsen staining), culture (Lowenstein Jensen) and PCR dot-blot. Gold standard was based on culture positivity combined with the clinical definition of PTB. Results In smear-negative and HIV subjects, active PTB was diagnosed in 28.4% (43/151) and 42.2% (19/45), respectively. In the high, intermediate and low pretest probability categories active PTB was diagnosed in 67.4% (31/46), 24% (6/25), 7.5% (6/80), respectively. PCR had sensitivity of 65% (CI 95%: 50%–78%) and specificity of 83% (CI 95%: 75%–89%). There was no difference in the sensitivity of PCR in relation to HIV status. PCR sensitivity and specificity among non-previously TB treated and those treated in the past were, respectively: 69%, 43%, 85% and 80%. The high pretest probability, when used as a diagnostic test, had sensitivity of 72% (CI 95%:57%–84%) and specificity of 86% (CI 95%:78%–92%). Using the PCR dot-blot in parallel with high pretest probability as a diagnostic test, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were: 90%, 71%, 75%, and 88%, respectively. Among non-previously TB treated and HIV subjects, this approach had sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 91%, 79%, 81%, 90%, and 90%, 65%, 72%, 88%, respectively. Conclusion PCR dot-blot associated with a high clinical suspicion may provide an important contribution to the diagnosis of SNPTB mainly in patients that have not been previously treated attended at a TB/HIV reference hospital.

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Background: Childhood obesity is a public health problem worldwide. Visceral obesity, particularly associated with cardio-metabolic risk, has been assessed by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, but both methods use sex-and age-specific percentile tables and are influenced by sexual maturity. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) is easier to obtain, does not involve tables and can be used to diagnose visceral obesity, even in normal-weight individuals. This study aims to compare the WHtR to the 2007 World Health Organization (WHO) reference for BMI in screening for the presence of cardio-metabolic and inflammatory risk factors in 6–10-year-old children. Methods: A cross-sectional study was undertaken with 175 subjects selected from the Reference Center for the Treatment of Children and Adolescents in Campos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The subjects were classified according to the 2007 WHO standard as normal-weight (BMI z score > −1 and < 1) or overweight/obese (BMI z score ≥ 1). Systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), fasting glycemia, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), triglyceride (TG), Homeostatic Model Assessment – Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR), leukocyte count and ultrasensitive C-reactive protein (CRP) were also analyzed. Results: There were significant correlations between WHtR and BMI z score (r = 0.88, p < 0.0001), SBP (r = 0.51, p < 0.0001), DBP (r = 0.49, p < 0.0001), LDL (r = 0.25, p < 0.0008, HDL (r = −0.28, p < 0.0002), TG (r = 0.26, p < 0.0006), HOMA-IR (r = 0.83, p < 0.0001) and CRP (r = 0.51, p < 0.0001). WHtR and BMI areas under the curve were similar for all the cardio-metabolic parameters. A WHtR cut-off value of > 0.47 was sensitive for screening insulin resistance and any one of the cardio-metabolic parameters. Conclusions: The WHtR was as sensitive as the 2007 WHO BMI in screening for metabolic risk factors in 6-10-year-old children. The public health message “keep your waist to less than half your height” can be effective in reducing cardio-metabolic risk because most of these risk factors are already present at a cut point of WHtR ≥ 0.5. However, as this is the first study to correlate the WHtR with inflammatory markers, we recommend further exploration of the use of WHtR in this age group and other population-based samples.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

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OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the frequencies of human platelet antigens in oncohematological patients with thrombocytopenia and to analyze the probability of their incompatibility with platelet transfusions. METHODS: Platelet antigen genotyping was performed by sequence-specific primer polymerase chain reaction (SSP-PCR) for the HPA-1a, HPA-1b, HPA-2a, HPA-2b, HPA-3a, HPA-3b, HPA-4a, HPA-4b, HPA-5a, HPA-5b; HPA-15a, HPA-15b alleles in 150 patients of the Hematology Service of the Hospital das Clínicas (FMUSP). RESULTS: The allele frequencies found were: HPA-1a: 0.837; HPA-1b: 0.163; HPA-2a: 0.830; HPA-2b: 0.170; HPA-3a: 0.700; HPA-3b: 0.300; HPA-4a: 1; HPA-4b: 0; HPA-5a: 0.887; HPA-5b: 0.113; HPA-15a: 0.457 and HPA-15b: 0.543. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the present study showed that the A allele is more common in the population than the B allele, except for HPA-15. This suggests that patients homozygous for the B allele are more predisposed to present alloimmunization and refractoriness to platelet transfusions by immune causes. Platelet genotyping could be of great value in the diagnosis of alloimmune thrombocytopenia and to provide compatible platelet concentrates for these patients.

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AIM: The purpose of the present study was to analyze the relationship between root formation of the first premolars and skeletal maturation stages identified in hand-wrist radiographs. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out involving the panoramic and hand-wrist radiographs obtained on the same date of 232 patients, 123 boys and 109 girls aged 4 years and 5 months to 17 years and 12 months. Root formation stages of the first premolars were related to the ossification stages of the sesamoid bone, epiphyseal stages of the phalanx of the thumb and epiphyseal stages of the radius. RESULTS: The studied variables demonstrated statistically significant correlations. CONCLUSION: Roots of the lower first premolars do not reach 2/3 of their complete length before adolescence.