Oral lesions as predictors of highly active antiretroviral therapy failure in Brazilian HIV-infected children

OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the accuracy of HIV-related oral lesions to predict immune and virologic failure on HIV-infected children in use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). STUDY DESIGN: Data for this cross-sectional analysis come from a longitudinal study being conducted through the HIV-AIDS Outpatient Unit, ENT Division, Hospital das Clinicas, Sao Paulo University Medical School. The study began in January 1990 and is still ongoing. The cut-off point for analyses purposes was December 2004. Subjects were 471 HIV-infected consecutive children attending the outpatient unit during this period, who enrolled regardless of medical or immunological status. The children have undertaken oral cavity examination, serum CD4(+) T-lymphocyte count, and, 271 of them, viral load measurement. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and relative risk were calculated. RESULTS: Oral lesions had moderate sensitivity, high specificity and positive predictive value to predict immune failure. It had low sensitivity and positive predictive value, and high specificity to predict virologic failure. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Oral manifestations of HIV can be important markers for immune suppression and for virologic failure, in Brazilian children undergoing HAART.

Clinical Predictors Associated With Duration of Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Treatment for Remission in Bipolar Depression A Naturalistic Study

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) has been widely tested and shown to be effective for unipolar depression. Although it has also been investigated for bipolar depression (BD), there are only few rTMS studies with BD. Here, we investigated 56 patients with BD who received rTMS treatment until remission (defined as Hamilton Depression Rating Scores <= 7). We used simple and multiple logistic regressions to identify clinical and demographic predictors associated with duration of treatment (defined as <15 vs. >15 rTMS sessions). Age, refractoriness, number of prior depressive episodes, and severe depression at baseline were associated with a longer rTMS treatment. In the multivariate analysis, refractoriness (likelihood ratio (LR) = 4.33; p < 0.01) and baseline severity (LR = 0.18, p < 0.01) remained significant predictors. Our preliminary study showed that, in remitted patients, refractoriness and severity of index episode are associated with the need of a longer rTMS treatment; providing preliminary evidence of important factors associated with rTMS parameters adjustment.

Prevalence and Predictors of Potential Drug-Drug Interactions in the Elderly: A Cross-Sectional Study in the Brazilian Primary Public Health System

Purpose. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of clinically important potential drug-drug interactions (DDIs) in elderly patients attending the public primary health care system in Brazil. The secondary objective was to investigate possible predictors of potential DDIs. Methods. A cross-sectional study was carried out in 5 Brazilian cities located in the Ourinhos Micro-region, Sao Paulo State, between November 2010 and April 2011. The selected sample was divided according to the presence (exposed) or absence (unexposed) of one or more potential DDIs (defined as the presence of a minimum 5-day overlap in supply of an interacting drug pair). Data were collected from medical prescriptions and patients' medical records. Potential DDIs (rated major or moderate) were identified using 4 DDI-checker programs. Logistic regression analysis was used to study potential DDI predictors. Results. The prevalence of clinically important potential DDIs found during the study period was 47.4%. Female sex (OR = 2.49 [95% CI 2.29-2.75]), diagnosis of = 3 diseases (OR = 6.43 [95% CI 3.25-12.44]), and diagnosis of hypertension (OR = 1.68 [95% CI 1.23-2.41]) were associated with potential DDIs. The adjusted OR increased from 0.90 [95% CI 0.82-1.03] in patients aged 60 - 64 years to 4.03 [95% CI 3.79 - 4.28] in those aged 75 years or older. Drug therapy regimens involving = 2 prescribers (OR = 1.39 [95% CI 1.17-1.67]), = 3 drugs (OR = 3.21 [95% CI 2.78-3.59]), = 2 ATC codes (OR = 1.19 [95% CI 1.12-1.29]), = 2 drugs acting on cytochrome P450 (OR = 2.24 [95% CI 2.07-2.46]), and ATC codes B (OR = 1.89 [95% CI 1.05-2.08]) and C (OR = 4.01 [95% CI 3.55-4.57]) were associated with potential DDIs. Conclusion. Special care should be taken with the prescription and therapeutic follow-up of patients who present characteristics identified as predictors. Knowledge of potential DDI predictors could aid in developing preventive practices and policies that allow public health services to better manage this situation.

Urinary MCP-1 and RBP: Independent predictors of renal outcome in macroalbuminuric diabetic nephropathy

Background: Albuminuria has been considered a sine qua non condition for the diagnosis of diabetic nephropathy (DN) and has been widely used as a surrogate outcome of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, recent data suggest that albuminuria may fail as a biomarker in a subset of patients, and the search for novel markers is intense. Methods: We analyzed the role of urinary RBP and of serum and urinary cytokines (TGF-beta, MCP-1 and VEGF) as predictors of the risk of dialysis. doubling of serum creatinine or death (primary outcome. PO) in 56 type 2 diabetic patients with macroalbuminuric DN. Results: Mean follow-up time was 30.7 +/- 10 months. Urinary RBP and MCP-1 were significantly higher in patients presenting the PO, whereas no difference was shown for TGF-beta or VEGF. In the Cox regression, urinary RBP. MCP-1 and VEGF were positively associated and serum VEGF was inversely related to the risk of the PO. However, after adjustments for creatinine clearance, proteinuria, and blood pressure only urinary RBP (OR 11.6; 95% CI 2.7-49.2, p = 0.001 for log RBP) and urinary MCP-1 (OR 11.0; 95% CI 1.6-76.4, p = 0.02 for log MCP-1) remained as significant independent predictors of the PO. Conclusion: Urinary RBP and MCP-1 are independently related to the risk of CKD progression in patients with macroalbuminuric DN. Whether these biomarkers have a role in the setting of normoalbuminuria and microalbuminuria in DN should be further investigated. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of the risk of falls among elderly with chronic atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVES: Though elderly persons with chronic atrial fibrillation have more comorbidities that could limit indications for the chronic use of anticoagulants, few studies have focused on the risk of falls within this particular group. To evaluate the predictors of the risk of falls among elderly with chronic atrial fibrillation, a cross-sectional, observational study was performed. METHODS: From 295 consecutive patients aged 60 years or older with a history of atrial fibrillation who were enrolled within the last 2 years in the cardiogeriatrics outpatient clinic of the Instituto do Coracao do Hospital das Clinicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Sao Paulo, 107 took part in this study. Their age was 77.9 +/- 6.4 years, and 62 were female. They were divided into two groups: a) no history of falls in the previous year and b) a history of one or more falls in the previous year. Data regarding the history of falls and social, demographic, anthropometric, and clinical information were collected. Multidimensional assessment instruments and questionnaires were applied. RESULTS: At least one fall was reported in 55 patients (51.4%). Among them, 27 (49.1%) presented recurrent falls, with body lesions in 90.4% and fractures in 9.1% of the cases. Multivariate logistic regression showed that self-reported difficulty maintaining balance, use of amiodarone, and diabetes were independent variables associated with the risk of falls, with a sensitivity of 92.9% and a specificity of 44.9%. CONCLUSION: In a group of elderly patients with chronic atrial fibrillation who were relatively independent and able to attend an outpatient clinic, the occurrence of falls with recurrence and clinical consequences was high. Difficulty maintaining balance, the use of amiodarone and a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus were independent predictors of the risk for falls. Thus, simple clinical data predicted falls better than objective functional tests.

Incidence and Predictors of Adverse Drug Reactions Caused by Drug-Drug Interactions in Elderly Outpatients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the incidence of drug-drug interactions (DDIs) related to adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in elderly outpatients who attended public primary healthcare units in a southeastern region of Brazil. The secondary objective was to investigate the possible predictors of DDI-related ADRs. Methods. A prospective cohort study was conducted between November 1, 2010, and November 31, 2011, in the primary public healthcare system in the Ourinhos micro-region in Brazil. Patients who were at least 60 years old, with at least one potential DDI, were eligible for inclusion in the study. Eligible patients were assessed by clinical pharmacists for DDI-related ADRs for 4 months. The causality of DDI-related ADRs was assessed independently by four clinicians using three decisional algorithms. The incidence of DDI-related ADRs during the study period was calculated. Logistic regression analysis was used to study DDI-related ADR predictors. Results. A total of 433 patients completed the study. The incidence of DDI-related ADRs was 6.5%. A multivariate analysis indicated that the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) rose from 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.75-1.12, p = 0.06) in patients aged 65-69 years to 4.40 (95% CI = 3.00-6.12, p < 0.01) in patients aged 80 years or older. Patients who presented two to three diagnosed diseases presented lower adjusted ORs (OR = 0.93 [95% CI = 0.68-1.18, p = 0.08]) than patients who presented six or more diseases (OR = 1.12 [95% CI = 1.02-2.01, p < 0.01]). Elderly patients who took five or more drugs had a significantly higher risk of DDI-related ADRs (OR = 2.72 [95% CI = 1.92-3.12, p < 0.01]) than patients who took three to four drugs (OR = 0.93 [95% CI = 0.74-1.11, p = 0.06]). No significant difference was found with regard to sex (OR = 1.08 [95% CI 0.48-2.02, p = 0.44]). Conclusion. The incidence of DDI-related ADRs in elderly outpatients was significant, and most of the events presented important clinical consequences. Because clinicians still have difficulty managing this problem, highlighting the factors that increase the risk of DDI-related ADRs is essential. Polypharmacy was found to be a significant predictor of DDI-related ADRs in our sample.

Clinical Predictors of Different Grades of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the comorbidities related to obesity. Liver biopsy has been used as the "gold standard" for the diagnosis, grading, and prognosis of obese patients. The objective of the present study was to evaluate clinical predictors of more advanced stages of NAFLD. In this retrospective study we assessed several physical and laboratorial factors, including some cytokines, in morbidly obese patients submitted to Roux-en-Y gastric bypass that could be related to the diagnosis and staging of NAFLD. Fragments of the livers were obtained from wedge biopsies during operation. The medical records of 259 patients were studied. The patients were divided into four groups: normal hepatic biopsy, steatosis, mild nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and moderate and severe NASH. There were no differences in cytokine levels among groups. The triglyceride levels were the only variable that could stratify the grades of NAFLD and also differentiate from normal livers in the female patients. Also in this group, the aminotransferases and GGT levels and fasting glucose were predictors of the more advanced stages of NASH, while BMI and weight were predictors of the more advanced stages of NASH in male patients. There are no available markers in clinical practice to detect the initial stages of NAFLD. It is very important to perform a liver biopsy in all patients submitted to bariatric surgery and in obese patients with no indication to be operated in the presence of elevated blood levels of aminotransferases, GGT, and fasting glucose.

Age of First Dental Visit and Predictors for Oral Healthcare Utilisation in Preschool Children

Purpose: To assess the age the of the first dental visit and the association of self-perceived oral health, socioeconomic and clinical indicators with healthcare utilisation in Brazilian preschool children. Materials and Methods: An epidemiological survey with 455 5- to 59-month-old children was conducted on National Children's Vaccination Day in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Data about age and reasons for the first dental visit, healthcare utilisation, socioeconomic status and self-perceived oral health were collected by means of a parental semi-structured questionnaire. Calibrated examiners evaluated the prevalence of dental caries (WHO) and dental trauma. The assessment of the association used Poisson regression models (prevalence ratio; 95% confidence interval [Cl]). Results: A total of 24.2% (95% Cl: 20.3% to 28.4%) of the study sample had already had a first dental visit. Older children, those with dental caries and dental trauma and whose mothers had a higher level of education were more likely to have gone to the dentist. Children of low socioeconomic status were more likely to have visited public than private healthcare services. The reasons for the first dental visit were associated with clinical indicators of the sample. The distribution of utilisation of the types of oral healthcare services (public or private) varied across the socioeconomic groups. Non-white children with dental caries and dental trauma tended to visit a dentist only for treatment reasons. Conclusion: Socioeconomic and clinical indicators are associated with the use of dental services, indicating the need for strategies to promote public health and reorientation of services that facilitate dental access for preschool children.

Psychosocial and clinical predictors of retention in outpatient alcoholism treatment

Objective: One of the factors associated with low rates of compliance in the treatment for alcoholism seems to be the intensity of craving for alcohol. This study aimed to evaluate the associations between alcohol craving and biopsychosocial addiction model-related variables and to verify whether these variables could predict treatment retention. Methods: The sample consisted of 257 male alcoholics who were enrolled in two different pharmacological trials conducted at the Universidade de Sao Paulo in Brazil. Based on four factors measured at baseline - biological (age, race, and family alcoholism), psychiatric (depression symptoms), social (financial and marital status), and addiction (craving intensity, severity of alcohol dependence, smoking status, drinking history, preferential beverage, daily intake of alcohol before treatment) - direct logistic regression was performed to analyze these factors' influence on treatment retention after controlling for medication groups and AA attendance. Results: Increasing age, participation in Alcoholics Anonymous groups, and beer preference among drinkers were independently associated with higher treatment retention. Conversely, higher scores for depression increased dropout rates. Conclusion: Health services should identify the treatment practices and therapists that improve retention. Information about patients' characteristics linked to dropouts should be studied to render treatment programs more responsive and attractive, combining pharmacological agents with more intensive and diversified psychosocial interventions.

BNP and Admission Glucose as In-Hospital Mortality Predictors in Non-ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Objectives. Admission hyperglycemia and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) are associated with mortality in acute coronary syndromes, but no study compares their prediction in-hospital death. Methods. Patients with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), in-hospital mortality and two-year mortality or readmission were compared for area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy (ACC) of glycemia and BNP. Results. Respectively, AUC, SEN, SPE, PPV, NPV, and ACC for prediction of in-hospital mortality were 0.815, 71.4%, 84.3%, 26.3%, 97.4%, and 83.3% for glycemia = 200 mg/dL and 0.748, 71.4%, 68.5%, 15.2%, 96.8% and 68.7% for BNP = 300 pg/mL. AUC of glycemia was similar to BNP (P = 0.411). In multivariate analysis we found glycemia >= 200mg/dL related to in-hospital death (P = 0.004). No difference was found in two-year mortality or readmission in BNP or hyperglycemic subgroups. Conclusion. Hyperglycemia was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in NSTEMI and had a good ROC curve level. Hyperglycemia and BNP, although poor in-hospital predictors of unfavorable events, were independent risk factors for death or length of stay >10 days. No relation was found between hyperglycemia or BNP and long-term events.

Lipid transfers to HDL are predictors of precocious clinical coronary heart disease

Background: High-density-lipoprotein (HDL) has several antiatherogenic properties and, although the concentration of HDL-cholesterol negatively correlates with incidence of coronary artery disease (CAD), this is not sufficient to evaluate the overall HDL protective role. The aim was to investigate whether precocious CAD patients show abnormalities in lipid transfers to HDL, a fundamental step in HDL metabolism and function. Methods: Thirty normocholesterolemic CAD patients aged <50 y and 30 controls paired for sex, age and B.M.I. were studied. Fasting blood samples were collected for the in vitro lipid transfer assay and plasma lipid determination. A donor nanoemulsion labeled with radioactive free-cholesterol. cholesteryl esters, phospholipids and triglycerides was incubated with whole plasma and after chemical precipitation of non-HDL fractions, supernatant was counted for radioactivity in HDL. Results: LDL and HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides were equal in both groups. Transfers of free-cholesterol (3.8 +/- 1.2%vs 7.0 +/- 33%,p<0.0001) and triglycerides (3.7 +/- 1.7%vs 4.9 +/- 1.9%, p = 0.0125) were diminished in CAD patients whereas cholesteryl ester transfer increased (6.5 +/- 1.9%vs 4.8 +/- 1.8%, p = 0.0008); phospholipid transfer was equal (17.8 +/- 3.5% vs19.5 +/- 3.9%). Conclusion: Alterations in the transfer of lipids to HDL may constitute a new marker for precocious CAD and relation of this metabolic alteration with HDL antiatherogenic function should be investigated in future studies. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Neuropsychological predictors of response to randomized treatment in obsessive-compulsive disorder

Objective: To identify neuropsychological predictors of treatment response to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) and fluoxetine in treatment-naive adults with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Method: Thirty-eight adult outpatients with OCD underwent neuropsychological assessment, including tasks of intellectual function, executive functioning and visual and verbal memory, before randomization to a 12-week clinical trial of either CBT or fluoxetine. Neuropsychological measures were used to identify predictors of treatment response in OCD. Results: Neuropsychological measures that predicted a better treatment response to either CBT or fluoxetine were higher verbal IQ (Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence) (p = 0.008); higher verbal memory on the California Verbal Learning Test (p = 0.710); shorter time to complete part D (Dots) (p<0.001), longer time to complete part W (Words) (p = 0.025) and less errors on part C (Colors) (p<0.001) in the Victoria Stroop Test (VST). Fewer perseverations on the California Verbal Learning Test, a measure of mental flexibility, predicted better response to CBT, but worse response to fluoxetine (p = 0.002). Conclusion: In general, OCD patients with better cognitive and executive abilities at baseline were more prone to respond to either CBT or fluoxetine. Our finding that neuropsychological measures of mental flexibility predicted response to treatment in opposite directions for CBT and fluoxetine suggests that OCD patients with different neuropsychological profiles may respond preferentially to one type of treatment versus the other. Further studies with larger samples of OCD patients are necessary to investigate the heuristic value of such findings in a clinical context. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology and predictors of a poor outcome in elderly patients with candidemia

Background: Candidemia affects patient populations from neonates to the elderly. Despite this, little information is available about the epidemiology of candidemia in elderly patients. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 987 episodes of candidemia in adults (>14 years of age) from the databases of three laboratory-based surveys of candidemia performed at 14 tertiary care hospitals. Patients aged >= 60 years were considered elderly (group 1, n = 455, 46%) and were compared to younger patients (group 2, n = 532, 54%) regarding demographics, underlying diseases, comorbidities, exposure to medical procedures, species, treatment, and outcome. Results: The median APACHE II score was significantly higher in the elderly patients (19 vs. 15, p = 0.03). Variables that were observed significantly more frequently in elderly patients included admission to an intensive care unit, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, cardiac disease, lung disease, receipt of antibiotics or H2 blockers, insertion of a central venous catheter, mechanical ventilation, and candidemia due to Candida tropicalis. The 30-day mortality of elderly patients was significantly higher than that of younger patients (70% vs. 45%, p < 0.001). Factors associated with higher mortality by multivariate analysis included APACHE II score and being in group 1 (elderly). Factors associated with mortality in elderly patients were lung disease and the receipt of mechanical ventilation. Conclusions: Elderly patients account for a substantial proportion of patients with candidemia and have a higher mortality compared to younger patients. (C) 2012 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Independent predictors and a prognostic model for surgical outcome in refractory frontal lobe epilepsy

Purpose: Refractory frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE) remains one of the most challenging surgically remediable epilepsy syndromes. Nevertheless, definition of independent predictors and predictive models of postsurgical seizure outcome remains poorly explored in FLE. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 70 consecutive patients with refractory FLE submitted to surgical treatment at our center from July 1994 to December 2006. Univariate results were submitted to logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards regression to identify isolated risk factors for poor surgical results and to construct predictive models for surgical outcome in FLE. Results: From 70 patients submitted to surgery, 45 patients (64%) had favorable outcome and 37 (47%) became seizure free. Isolated risk factors for poor surgical outcome are expressed in hazard ratio (H.R.) and were time of epilepsy (H.R.=4.2; 95% C.I.=.1.5-11.7; p=0.006), ictal EEG recruiting rhythm (H.R. = 2.9; 95% C.I. = 1.1-7.7; p=0.033); normal MRI (H.R. = 4.8; 95% C.I. = 1.4-16.6; p = 0.012), and MRI with lesion involving eloquent cortex (H.R. = 3.8; 95% C.I. = 1.2-12.0; p = 0.021). Based on these variables and using a logistic regression model we constructed a model that correctly predicted long-term surgical outcome in up to 80% of patients. Conclusion: Among independent risk factors for postsurgical seizure outcome, epilepsy duration is a potentially modifiable factor that could impact surgical outcome in FLE. Early diagnosis, presence of an MRI lesion not involving eloquent cortex, and ictal EEG without recruited rhythm independently predicted favorable outcome in this series. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Frequency and predictors of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after intravenous thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke in a Brazilian public hospital

OBJECTIVE: Scarce data are available on the occurrence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage related to intravenous thrombolysis for acute stroke in South America. We aimed to address the frequency and clinical predictors of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after stroke thrombolysis at our tertiary emergency unit in Brazil. METHOD: We reviewed the clinical and radiological data of 117 consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis in our hospital between May 2001 and April 2010. We compared our results with those of the Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke registry. Univariate and multiple regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with symptomatic intracranial transformation. RESULTS: In total, 113 cases from the initial sample were analyzed. The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 16 (interquartile range: 10-20). The median onset-to-treatment time was 188 minutes (interquartile range: 155-227). There were seven symptomatic intracranial hemorrhages (6.2%; Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke registry: 4.9%; p = 0.505). In the univariate analysis, current statin treatment and elevated National Institute of Health Stroke Scale scores were related to symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. After the multivariate analysis, current statin treatment was the only factor independently associated with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: In this series of Brazilian patients with severe strokes treated with intravenous thrombolysis in a public university hospital at a late treatment window, we found no increase in the rate of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. Additional studies are necessary to clarify the possible association between statins and the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after stroke thrombolysis.