Complex Transition to Cooperative Behavior in a Structured Population Model

Cooperation plays an important role in the evolution of species and human societies. The understanding of the emergence and persistence of cooperation in those systems is a fascinating and fundamental question. Many mechanisms were extensively studied and proposed as supporting cooperation. The current work addresses the role of migration for the maintenance of cooperation in structured populations. This problem is investigated in an evolutionary perspective through the prisoner's dilemma game paradigm. It is found that migration and structure play an essential role in the evolution of the cooperative behavior. The possible outcomes of the model are extinction of the entire population, dominance of the cooperative strategy and coexistence between cooperators and defectors. The coexistence phase is obtained in the range of large migration rates. It is also verified the existence of a critical level of structuring beyond that cooperation is always likely. In resume, we conclude that the increase in the number of demes as well as in the migration rate favor the fixation of the cooperative behavior.

Precision of Usual Food Intake Estimates According to the Percentage of Individuals with a Second Dietary Measurement

Background Statistical methods for estimating usual intake require at least two short-term dietary measurements in a subsample of the target population. However, the percentage of individuals with a second dietary measurement (replication rate) may influence the precision of estimates, such as percentiles and proportions of individuals below cut-offs of intake. Objective To investigate the precision of the usual food intake estimates using different replication rates and different sample sizes. Participants/setting Adolescents participating in the continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2008 (n=1,304) who completed two 24-hour recalls. Statistical analyses performed The National Cancer Institute method was used to estimate the usual intake of dark green vegetables in the original sample comprising 1,304 adolescents with a replication rate of 100%. A bootstrap with 100 replications was performed to estimate CIs for percentiles and proportions of individuals below cut-offs of intake. Using the same bootstrap replications, four sets of data sets were sampled with different replication rates (80%, 60%, 40%, and 20%). For each data set created, the National Cancer Institute method was performed and percentiles, Cl, and proportions of individuals below cut-offs were calculated. Precision estimates were checked by comparing each Cl obtained from data sets with different replication rates with the Cl obtained from original data set. Further, we sampled 1,000, 750, 500, and 250 individuals from the original data set, and performed the same analytical procedures. Results Percentiles of intake and percentage of individuals below the cut-off points were similar throughout the replication rates and sample sizes, but the Cl increased as the replication rate decreased. Wider CIs were observed at 40% and 20% of replication rate. Conclusions The precision of the usual intake estimates decreased when low replication rates were used. However, even with different sample sizes, replication rates >40% may not lead to an important loss of precision. J Acad Nutr Diet. 2012;112:1015-1020.

Effective carrying capacity and analytical solution of a particular case of the Richards-like two-species population dynamics model

We consider a generalized two-species population dynamic model and analytically solve it for the amensalism and commensalism ecological interactions. These two-species models can be simplified to a one-species model with a time dependent extrinsic growth factor. With a one-species model with an effective carrying capacity one is able to retrieve the steady state solutions of the previous one-species model. The equivalence obtained between the effective carrying capacity and the extrinsic growth factor is complete only for a particular case, the Gompertz model. Here we unveil important aspects of sigmoid growth curves, which are relevant to growth processes and population dynamics. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian analysis of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson cure rate model

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the right-censored survival data when immune or cured individuals may be present in the population from which the data is taken. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which generalizes the Poisson distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a real data set are considered.

A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

Diverse levels of an inwardly rectifying potassium conductance generate heterogeneous neuronal behavior in a population of dorsal cochlear nucleus pyramidal neurons

Leao RM, Li S, Doiron B, Tzounopoulos T. Diverse levels of an inwardly rectifying potassium conductance generate heterogeneous neuronal behavior in a population of dorsal cochlear nucleus pyramidal neurons. J Neurophysiol 107: 3008-3019, 2012. First published February 29, 2012; doi:10.1152/jn.00660.2011.-Homeostatic mechanisms maintain homogeneous neuronal behavior among neurons that exhibit substantial variability in the expression levels of their ionic conductances. In contrast, the mechanisms, which generate heterogeneous neuronal behavior across a neuronal population, remain poorly understood. We addressed this problem in the dorsal cochlear nucleus, where principal neurons exist in two qualitatively distinct states: spontaneously active or not spontaneously active. Our studies reveal that distinct activity states are generated by the differential levels of a Ba2+-sensitive, inwardly rectifying potassium conductance (K-ir). Variability in K-ir maximal conductance causes variations in the resting membrane potential (RMP). Low K-ir conductance depolarizes RMP to voltages above the threshold for activating subthreshold-persistent sodium channels (Na-p). Once Na-p channels are activated, the RMP becomes unstable, and spontaneous firing is triggered. Our results provide a biophysical mechanism for generating neural heterogeneity, which may play a role in the encoding of sensory information.

Longitudinal follow-up of cavum septum pellucidum and adhesio interthalamica alterations in first-episode psychosis: a population-based MRI study

Background. Neurodevelopmental alterations have been described inconsistently in psychosis probably because of lack of standardization among studies. The aim of this study was to conduct the first longitudinal and population-based magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) evaluation of the presence and size of the cavum septum pellucidum (CSP) and adhesio interthalamica (AI) in a large sample of patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP). Method. FEP patients (n=122) were subdivided into schizophrenia (n=62), mood disorders (n=46) and other psychosis (n=14) groups and compared to 94 healthy next-door neighbour controls. After 13 months, 80 FEP patients and 52 controls underwent a second MRI examination. Results. We found significant reductions in the AI length in schizophrenia FEP in comparison with the mood disorders and control subgroups (longer length) at the baseline assessment, and no differences in any measure of the CSP. By contrast, there was a diagnosis x time interaction for the CSP length, with a more prominent increase for this measure in the psychosis group. There was an involution of the AI length over time for all groups but no diagnosis x time interaction. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the CSP per se may not be linked to the neurobiology of emerging psychotic disorders, although it might be related to the progression of the disease. However, the fact that the AI length was shown to be shorter at the onset of the disorder supports the neurodevelopmental model of schizophrenia and indicates that an alteration in this grey matter junction may be a risk factor for developing psychosis.

Association of polymorphisms of endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) gene with the risk of primary open angle glaucoma in a Brazilian population

The present study aimed to investigate the association of endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) gene polymorphisms with primary open angle glaucoma (POAG). We conducted a case-control study that included 90 patients with POAG and 127 healthy controls whose blood samples were genotyped for the functional polymorphisms T-786C and Glu298Asp of the eNOS gene by Taqman fluorescent allelic discrimination assay. The T-786C polymorphism was significantly associated as a risk factor for POAG among women (OR: 228; 95% CI: 1.11 to 4.70, p = 0.024) and marginally associated to the risk of POAG in the patients >= 52 years of age at diagnosis (OR: 2.11; 95% CI: 0.98 to 4.55, p = 0,055). However, these results was not confirmed after adjustments for gender, age, self-declared skin color, tobacco smoking and eNOS genotypes by multivariate logistic regression model (OR: 2.08; 95% CI: 0.87 to 5.01, p = 0.101 and OR: 2.20; 95% CI: 0.95 to 5.12, p = 0.067, respectively). The haplotype CG of T-786C and Glu298Asp showed a borderline association with risk of POAG in the overall analysis (OR: 1.76; 95% CI: 0.98 to 3.14, p = 0.055) and among women (OR: 2.02; 95% CI: 0.98 to 4.16, p = 0.052). Furthermore, the CG haplotype was significantly associated with the development of POAG for the age at diagnosis group >= 52 years (OR: 3.48; 95% CI: 1.54 to 7.84, p = 0.002). We suggested that haplotypes of the polymorphisms T-786C and Glu298Asp of eNOS may interact with gender and age in modulating the risk of POAG. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Men's health: a population-based study on social inequalities

This study evaluates social inequalities in health according to level of schooling in the male population. This was a cross-sectional, population-based study with a sample of 449 men ranging from 20 to 59 years of age and living in Campinas, Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The chi-square test was used to verify associations, and a Poisson regression model was used to estimate crude and adjusted prevalence ratios. Men with less schooling showed higher rates of alcohol consumption and dependence, smoking, sedentary lifestyle during leisure time, and less healthy eating habits, in addition to higher prevalence of bad or very bad self-rated health, at least one chronic disease, hypertension, and other health problems. No differences were detected between the two schooling strata in terms of use of health services, except for dental services. The findings point to social inequality in health-related behaviors and in some health status indicators. However, possible equity was observed in the use of nearly all types of health services.

Viral contamination during sequential phacoemulsification surgeries in an experimental model

Purpose: To determine the incidence of Piry virus contamination among surgical instruments used with disposable accessories for phacoemulsification during sequential surgeries. Methods: An experimental model was created with 4 pigs' eyes that were contaminated with Piry virus and 4 pigs' eyes that were not contaminated. Phacoemulsification was performed on the eyes, alternating between the contaminated and non-contaminated eyes. From one surgery to another, the operating fields, gloves, scalpel, tweezers, needles, syringes, tips and bag collector from the phacoemulsification machine were exchanged; only the hand piece and the irrigation and aspiration systems were maintained. Results: In the collector bag, three samples from the contaminated eyes (3/4) were positive, and two samples from the non-contaminated (2/4) eyes were also positive; at the tip, one sample from the contaminated eyes (1/4) and two samples of the noncontaminated eyes (2/4) yielded positive results. In the irrigation system, one sample from a non-contaminated eye (1/4) was positive, and in the aspiration system, two samples from contaminated eyes (2/4) and two samples from non-contaminated eyes (2/4) were positive. In the gloves, the samples were positive in two samples from the non-contaminated eyes (2/4) and in two samples from the contaminated eyes (2/4). In the scalpel samples, three contaminated eyes (3/4) and none of the non-contaminated eyes (0/4) were positive; finally, two samples from the anterior chambers of the non-contaminated eyes gathered after surgery were positive. Conclusions: In two non-contaminated eyes, the presence of genetic material was detected after phacoemulsification surgery, demonstrating that the transmission of the genetic material of the Piry virus occurred at some point during the surgery on these non-contaminated eyes when the hand piece and irrigation and aspiration systems were reused between surgeries.

Evaluation of the prevalence and nutritional and social determinants of overweight in a population of schoolchildren: a cross-sectional analysis of 5,037 children

Objective: To evaluate the prevalence and nutritional and social determinants of overweight in a population of schoolchildren in Southern Brazil. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of 5,037 children of both genders, between 6 and 10.9 years of age, from public and private schools of Maringa, Parana, Brazil. Evaluation of factors associated with excess weight (overweight and obesity) included gender, age, school type, socioeconomic level, education of the head of the family, eating habits, and means of commuting to school. After univariate analysis (Fisher's exact test), we adjusted a logistic regression model and used Wald's test for decision-making (p < 0.05). Results: The mean age was 8.7 +/- 1.3 years, with 52.8% females; 79.1% of the students attended public school and 54.6% had families of socioeconomic class A or B. Regarding nutritional status, 24% of children were overweight (7% obesity, 17% overweight). Being male, attending a private school, and having a head of the family with over four years of education were significantly associated with excess weight. In relation to food, inadequate intake of,carbohydrates was associated with a 48% greater chance of overweight/obesity (p < 0.001; OR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.25-1.76), Conclusion: The prevalence of overweight found in this study is approximate to that reported in national studies. Its association with gender and inadequate food intake indicates that these factors should be considered in initiatives aimed at preventive measures in childhood.

IRF6 is a Risk Factor for Nonsyndromic Cleft Lip in the Brazilian Population

Nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCL/P) is a complex disorder with a worldwide incidence estimated at 1:700. Among the putative susceptibility loci, the IRF6 gene and a region at 8q24.21 have been corroborated in different populations. To test the role of IRF6 in NSCL/P predisposition in the Brazilian population, we conducted a structured association study with the SNPs rs642961 and rs590223, respectively, located at 5' and 3' of the IRF6 gene and not in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD), in patients from five different Brazilian locations. We also evaluated the effect of these SNPs in IRF6 expression in mesenchymal stem cells (MSC). We observed association between rs642961 and cleft lip only (CLO) (P = 0.009; odds ratio (OR) for AA genotype = 1.83 [95% Confidence interval (CI), 0.64-5.31]; OR for AG genotype = 1.72 [95% CI, 1.03-2.84]). This association seems to be driven by the affected patients from Barbalha, a location which presents the highest heritability estimate (H-2 = 0.85), and the A allele at rs642961 is acting through a dominant model. No association was detected for the SNP rs590223. We did not find any correlation between expression levels and genotypes of the two loci, and it is possible that these SNPs have a functional role in some specific period of embryogenesis. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A General Latent Class Model for Performance Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard: An Application to Chagas Disease

We propose a new general Bayesian latent class model for evaluation of the performance of multiple diagnostic tests in situations in which no gold standard test exists based on a computationally intensive approach. The modeling represents an interesting and suitable alternative to models with complex structures that involve the general case of several conditionally independent diagnostic tests, covariates, and strata with different disease prevalences. The technique of stratifying the population according to different disease prevalence rates does not add further marked complexity to the modeling, but it makes the model more flexible and interpretable. To illustrate the general model proposed, we evaluate the performance of six diagnostic screening tests for Chagas disease considering some epidemiological variables. Serology at the time of donation (negative, positive, inconclusive) was considered as a factor of stratification in the model. The general model with stratification of the population performed better in comparison with its concurrents without stratification. The group formed by the testing laboratory Biomanguinhos FIOCRUZ-kit (c-ELISA and rec-ELISA) is the best option in the confirmation process by presenting false-negative rate of 0.0002% from the serial scheme. We are 100% sure that the donor is healthy when these two tests have negative results and he is chagasic when they have positive results.

On the Mechanisms of Triplet Excited State Population in 8-Azaadenine

The photophysics of 8-azaadenine (8-AA) has been studied with the CASPT2//CASSCF protocol and ANO-L double-zeta basis sets. Stationary equilibrium structures, surface crossings, minimum energy paths, and linear interpolations have been used to study possible mechanisms to populate the lowest triplet state, T-1 (3)(pi pi*), capable of sensitizing molecular oxygen. Our results show that two main mechanisms can occur after photoexcitation to the S-2 (1)(pi pi*) state. The first one is through the S-2/S-1 conical intersection (((1)pi pi*/(1)n pi*)(Cl)), leading to the S-1 ((1)n pi*) state minimum, (S-1 ((1)n pi*))(min), where a singlet-triplet crossing, ((1)n pi*/(3)pi pi*)(STC), is accessible. The second one starts with the ((1)pi pi*/(3)n pi*)(STC) at the (S-2((1)pi pi*))(min), from which the system can evolve to the (T-2 ((3)n pi*))(min), with subsequent population of the T-1 excited electronic state, due to the ((3)n pi*/(3)pi pi*)(Cl) conical intersection.

The negative binomial-beta Weibull regression model to predict the cure of prostate cancer

In this article, for the first time, we propose the negative binomial-beta Weibull (BW) regression model for studying the recurrence of prostate cancer and to predict the cure fraction for patients with clinically localized prostate cancer treated by open radical prostatectomy. The cure model considers that a fraction of the survivors are cured of the disease. The survival function for the population of patients can be modeled by a cure parametric model using the BW distribution. We derive an explicit expansion for the moments of the recurrence time distribution for the uncured individuals. The proposed distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, unimodal and bathtub shaped. Another advantage is that the proposed model includes as special sub-models some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. We analyze a real data set for localized prostate cancer patients after open radical prostatectomy.