Análise do erro de previsão de vazões mensais com diferentes horizontes de previsão

Este trabalho aborda o problema de previsão para séries de vazões médias mensais, no qual denomina-se de horizonte de previsão (h), o intervalo de tempo que separa a última observação usada no ajuste do modelo de previsão e o valor futuro a ser previsto. A análise do erro de previsão é feita em função deste horizonte de previsão. Estas séries possuem um comportamento periódico na média, na variância e na função de autocorrelação. Portanto, considera-se a abordagem amplamente usada para a modelagem destas séries que consiste inicialmente em remover a periodicidade na média e na variância das séries de vazões e em seguida calcular uma série padronizada para a qual são ajustados modelos estocásticos. Neste estudo considera-se para a série padronizada os modelos autorregressivos periódicos PAR (p m). As ordens p m dos modelos ajustados para cada mês são determinadas usando os seguintes critérios: a análise clássica da função de autocorrelação parcial periódica (FACPPe); usando-se o Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) proposto em (MecLeod, 1994); e com a análise da FACPPe proposta em (Stedinger, 2001). Os erros de previsão são calculados, na escala original da série de vazão, em função dos parâmetros dos modelos ajustados e avaliados para horizontes de previsão h variando de 1 a 12 meses. Estes erros são comparados com as estimativas das variâncias das vazões para o mês que está sendo previsto. Como resultado tem-se uma avaliação da capacidade de previsão, em meses, dos modelos ajustados para cada mês.

Chaos-based communication systems in non-ideal channels

Recently, many chaos-based communication systems have been proposed. They can present the many interesting properties of spread spectrum modulations. Besides, they can represent a low-cost increase in security. However, their major drawback is to have a Bit Error Rate (BER) general performance worse than their conventional counterparts. In this paper, we review some innovative techniques that can be used to make chaos-based communication systems attain lower levels of BER in non-ideal environments. In particular, we succinctly describe techniques to counter the effects of finite bandwidth, additive noise and delay in the communication channel. Although much research is necessary for chaos-based communication competing with conventional techniques, the presented results are auspicious. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal brain volumetric changes during one year in non-elderly healthy adults: a voxel-based morphometry study

Previous cross-sectional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies of healthy aging in young adults have indicated the presence of significant inverse correlations between age and gray matter volumes, although not homogeneously across all brain regions. However, such cross-sectional studies have important limitations and there is a scarcity of detailed longitudinal MRI studies with repeated measures obtained in the same individuals in order to investigate regional gray matter changes during short periods of time in non-elderly healthy adults. In the present study, 52 healthy young adults aged 18 to 50 years (27 males and 25 females) were followed with repeated MRI acquisitions over approximately 15 months. Gray matter volumes were compared between the two times using voxel-based morphometry, with the prediction that volume changes would be detectable in the frontal lobe, temporal neocortex and hippocampus. Voxel-wise analyses showed significant (P < 0.05, family-wise error corrected) relative volume reductions of gray matter in two small foci located in the right orbitofrontal cortex and left hippocampus. Separate comparisons for males and females showed bilateral gray matter relative reductions in the orbitofrontal cortex over time only in males. We conclude that, in non-elderly healthy adults, subtle gray matter volume alterations are detectable after short periods of time. This underscores the dynamic nature of gray matter changes in the brain during adult life, with regional volume reductions being detectable in brain regions that are relevant to cognitive and emotional processes.