Integration of spatial and temporal models to predict extreme water table depths

The objective of this work was to evaluate extreme water table depths in a watershed, using methods for geographical spatial data analysis. Groundwater spatio-temporal dynamics was evaluated in an outcrop of the Guarani Aquifer System. Water table depths were estimated from monitoring of water levels in 23 piezometers and time series modeling available from April 2004 to April 2011. For generation of spatial scenarios, geostatistical techniques were used, which incorporated into the prediction ancillary information related to the geomorphological patterns of the watershed, using a digital elevation model. This procedure improved estimates, due to the high correlation between water levels and elevation, and aggregated physical sense to predictions. The scenarios showed differences regarding the extreme levels - too deep or too shallow ones - and can subsidize water planning, efficient water use, and sustainable water management in the watershed.

Percolation transition in quantum Ising and rotor models with sub-Ohmic dissipation

We investigate the influence of sub-Ohmic dissipation on randomly diluted quantum Ising and rotor models. The dissipation causes the quantum dynamics of sufficiently large percolation clusters to freeze completely. As a result, the zero-temperature quantum phase transition across the lattice percolation threshold separates an unusual super-paramagnetic cluster phase from an inhomogeneous ferromagnetic phase. We determine the low-temperature thermodynamic behavior in both phases, which is dominated by large frozen and slowly fluctuating percolation clusters. We relate our results to the smeared transition scenario for disordered quantum phase transitions, and we compare the cases of sub-Ohmic, Ohmic, and super-Ohmic dissipation.

Testing phenomenological and theoretical models of dark matter density profiles with galaxy clusters

We use the stacked gravitational lensingmass profile of four high-mass (M 1015M ) galaxy clusters around z≈0.3 from Umetsu et al. to fit density profiles of phenomenological [Navarro– Frenk–White (NFW), Einasto, S´ersic, Stadel, Baltz–Marshall–Oguri (BMO) and Hernquist] and theoretical (non-singular Isothermal Sphere, DARKexp and Kang & He) models of the dark matter distribution. We account for large-scale structure effects, including a two-halo term in the analysis.We find that the BMO model provides the best fit to the data as measured by the reduced χ2. It is followed by the Stadel profile, the generalized NFW profile with a free inner slope and by the Einasto profile. The NFW model provides the best fit if we neglect the two-halo term, in agreement with results from Umetsu et al. Among the theoretical profiles, the DARKexp model with a single form parameter has the best performance, very close to that of the BMO profile. This may indicate a connection between this theoretical model and the phenomenology of dark matter haloes, shedding light on the dynamical basis of empirical profiles which emerge from numerical simulations.

Using occupancy models to investigate space partitioning between two sympatric large predators, the jaguar and puma in central Brazil

Coexistence of sympatric species is mediated by resource partitioning. Pumas occur sympatrically with jaguars throughout most of the jaguar's range but few studies have investigated space partitioning between both species. Here, camera trapping and occupancy models accounting for imperfect detection were employed in a Bayesian framework to investigate space partitioning between the jaguar and puma in Emas National Park (ENP), central Brazil. Jaguars were estimated to occupy 54.1% and pumas 39.3% of the sample sites. Jaguar occupancy was negatively correlated with distance to water and positively correlated with the amount of dense habitat surrounding the camera trap. Puma occupancy only showed a weak negative correlation with distance to water and with jaguar presence. Both species were less often present at the same site than expected under independent distributions. Jaguars had a significantly higher detection probability at cameras on roads than at off-road locations. For pumas, detection was similar on and off-road. Results indicate that both differences in habitat use and active avoidance shape space partitioning between jaguars and pumas in ENP. Considering its size, the jaguar is likely the competitively dominant of the two species. Owing to its habitat preferences, suitable jaguar habitat outside the park is probably sparse. Consequently, the jaguar population is likely largely confined to the park, while the puma population is known to extend into ENP's surroundings. (C) 2011 Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Saugetierkunde. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

A model of road effect using line integrals and a test of the performance of two new road indices using the distribution of small mammals in an Atlantic Forest landscape

Effects of roads on wildlife and its habitat have been measured using metrics, such as the nearest road distance, road density, and effective mesh size. In this work we introduce two new indices: (1) Integral Road Effect (IRE), which measured the sum effects of points in a road at a fixed point in the forest; and (2) Average Value of the Infinitesimal Road Effect (AVIRE), which measured the average of the effects of roads at this point. IRE is formally defined as the line integral of a special function (the infinitesimal road effect) along the curves that model the roads, whereas AVIRE is the quotient of IRE by the length of the roads. Combining tools of ArcGIS software with a numerical algorithm, we calculated these and other road and habitat cover indices in a sample of points in a human-modified landscape in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where data on the abundance of two groups of small mammals (forest specialists and habitat generalists) were collected in the field. We then compared through the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) a set of candidate regression models to explain the variation in small mammal abundance, including models with our two new road indices (AVIRE and IRE) or models with other road effect indices (nearest road distance, mesh size, and road density), and reference models (containing only habitat indices, or only the intercept without the effect of any variable). Compared to other road effect indices, AVIRE showed the best performance to explain abundance of forest specialist species, whereas the nearest road distance obtained the best performance to generalist species. AVIRE and habitat together were included in the best model for both small mammal groups, that is, higher abundance of specialist and generalist small mammals occurred where there is lower average road effect (less AVIRE) and more habitat. Moreover, AVIRE was not significantly correlated with habitat cover of specialists and generalists differing from the other road effect indices, except mesh size, which allows for separating the effect of roads from the effect of habitat on small mammal communities. We suggest that the proposed indices and GIS procedures could also be useful to describe other spatial ecological phenomena, such as edge effect in habitat fragments. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Covariates of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are distinct for incident CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 as disclosed by competing-risks regression models

Background: In addition to the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV), several cofactors are needed in cervical carcinogenesis, but whether the HPV covariates associated with incident i) CIN1 are different from those of incident ii) CIN2 and iii) CIN3 needs further assessment. Objectives: To gain further insights into the true biological differences between CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, we assessed HPV covariates associated with incident CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3. Study Design and Methods: HPV covariates associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 were analysed in the combined cohort of the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS study (n = 12,114), using competing-risks regression models (in panel data) for baseline HR-HPV-positive women (n = 1,105), who represent a sub-cohort of all 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in these two studies. Results: Altogether, 90 (4.8%), 39 (2.1%) and 14 (1.4%) cases progressed to CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3, respectively. Among these baseline HR-HPV-positive women, the risk profiles of incident GIN I, CIN2 and CIN3 were unique in that completely different HPV covariates were associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, irrespective which categories (non-progression, CIN1, CIN2, CIN3 or all) were used as competing-risks events in univariate and multivariate models. Conclusions: These data confirm our previous analysis based on multinomial regression models implicating that distinct covariates of HR-HPV are associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3. This emphasises true biological differences between the three grades of GIN, which revisits the concept of combining CIN2 with CIN3 or with CIN1 in histological classification or used as a common end-point, e.g., in HPV vaccine trials.

Exact correlation functions in particle-reaction models with immobile particles

Exact results on particle densities as well as correlators in two models of immobile particles, containing either a single species or else two distinct species, are derived. The models evolve following a descent dynamics through pair annihilation where each particle interacts once at most throughout its entire history. The resulting large number of stationary states leads to a non-vanishing configurational entropy. Our results are established for arbitrary initial conditions and are derived via a generating function method. The single-species model is the dual of the 1D zero-temperature kinetic Ising model with Kimball-Deker-Haake dynamics. In this way, both in finite and semi-infinite chains and also the Bethe lattice can be analysed. The relationship with the random sequential adsorption of dimers and weakly tapped granular materials is discussed.

Pion, Kaon, and Proton Production in Central Pb-Pb Collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV

In this Letter we report the first results on pi(+/-), K-+/-, p, and (p) over bar production at midrapidity (vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.5) in central Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV, measured by the ALICE experiment at the LHC. The p(T) distributions and yields are compared to previous results at root s(NN) = 200 GeV and expectations from hydrodynamic and thermal models. The spectral shapes indicate a strong increase of the radial flow velocity with root s(NN), which in hydrodynamic models is expected as a consequence of the increasing particle density. While the K/pi ratio is in line with predictions from the thermal model, the p/pi ratio is found to be lower by a factor of about 1.5. This deviation from thermal model expectations is still to be understood.

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.