Early detection of doxorubicin myocardial injury by ultrasonic tissue characterization in an experimental animal model

In the clinical setting, the early detection of myocardial injury induced by doxorubicin (DXR) is still considered a challenge. To assess whether ultrasonic tissue characterization (UTC) can identify early DXR-related myocardial lesions and their correlation with collagen myocardial percentages, we studied 60 rats at basal status and prospectively after 2mg/Kg/week DXR endovenous infusion. Echocardiographic examinations were conducted at baseline and at 8,10,12,14 and 16 mg/Kg DXR cumulative dose. The left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF), shortening fraction (SF), and the UTC indices: corrected coefficient of integrated backscatter (IBS) (tissue IBS intensity/phantom IBS intensity) (CC-IBS) and the cyclic variation magnitude of this intensity curve (MCV) were measured. The variation of each parameter of study through DXR dose was expressed by the average and standard error at specific DXR dosages and those at baseline. The collagen percent (%) was calculated in six control group animals and 24 DXR group animals. CC-IBS increased (1.29 +/- 0.27 x 1.1 +/- 0.26-basal; p=0.005) and MCV decreased (9.1 +/- 2.8 x 11.02 +/- 2.6-basal; p=0.006) from 8 mg/Kg to 16mg/Kg DXR. LVEF presented only a slight but significant decrease (80.4 +/- 6.9% x 85.3 +/- 6.9%-basal, p=0.005) from 8 mg/Kg to 16 mg/Kg DXR. CC-IBS was 72.2% sensitive and 83.3% specific to detect collagen deposition of 4.24%(AUC=0.76). LVEF was not accurate to detect initial collagen deposition (AUC=0.54). In conclusion: UTC was able to early identify the DXR myocardial lesion when compared to LVEF, showing good accuracy to detect the initial collagen deposition in this experimental animal model.

Influence Assessment in an Heteroscedastic Errors-in-Variables Model

The main goal of this article is to consider influence assessment in models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. The techniques enable to identify potential influential elements and also to quantify the effects of perturbations in these elements on some results of interest. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease.

Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Bayesian model accounting for within-class biological variability in Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE)

Abstract Background An important challenge for transcript counting methods such as Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE), "Digital Northern" or Massively Parallel Signature Sequencing (MPSS), is to carry out statistical analyses that account for the within-class variability, i.e., variability due to the intrinsic biological differences among sampled individuals of the same class, and not only variability due to technical sampling error. Results We introduce a Bayesian model that accounts for the within-class variability by means of mixture distribution. We show that the previously available approaches of aggregation in pools ("pseudo-libraries") and the Beta-Binomial model, are particular cases of the mixture model. We illustrate our method with a brain tumor vs. normal comparison using SAGE data from public databases. We show examples of tags regarded as differentially expressed with high significance if the within-class variability is ignored, but clearly not so significant if one accounts for it. Conclusion Using available information about biological replicates, one can transform a list of candidate transcripts showing differential expression to a more reliable one. Our method is freely available, under GPL/GNU copyleft, through a user friendly web-based on-line tool or as R language scripts at supplemental web-site.