INFERENCES FOR THE CHANGE-POINT OF THE EXPONENTIATED WEIBULL HAZARD FUNCTION

In many applications of lifetime data analysis, it is important to perform inferences about the change-point of the hazard function. The change-point could be a maximum for unimodal hazard functions or a minimum for bathtub forms of hazard functions and is usually of great interest in medical or industrial applications. For lifetime distributions where this change-point of the hazard function can be analytically calculated, its maximum likelihood estimator is easily obtained from the invariance properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. From the asymptotical normality of the maximum likelihood estimators, confidence intervals can also be obtained. Considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution for the lifetime data, we have different forms for the hazard function: constant, increasing, unimodal, decreasing or bathtub forms. This model gives great flexibility of fit, but we do not have analytic expressions for the change-point of the hazard function. In this way, we consider the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to get posterior summaries for the change-point of the hazard function considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution.

Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

This work assessed homogeneity of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG) weather station climate series, using various statistical techniques. The record from this target station is one of the longest in Brazil, having commenced in 1933 with observations of precipitation, and temperatures and other variables later in 1936. Thus, it is one of the few stations in Brazil with enough data for long-term climate variability and climate change studies. There is, however, a possibility that its data may have been contaminated by some artifacts over time. Admittedly, there was an intervention on the observations in 1958, with the replacement of instruments, for which the size of impact has not been yet evaluated. The station transformed in the course of time from rural to urban, and this may also have influenced homogeneity of the observations and makes the station less representative for climate studies over larger spatial scales. Homogeneity of the target station was assessed applying both absolute, or single station tests, and tests relatively to regional climate, in annual scale, regarding daily precipitation, relative humidity, maximum (TMax), minimum (TMin), and wet bulb temperatures. Among these quantities, only precipitation does not exhibit any inhomogeneity. A clear signal of change of instruments in 1958 was detected in the TMax and relative humidity data, the latter certainly because of its strong dependence on temperature. This signal is not very clear in TMin, but it presents non-climatic discontinuities around 1953 and around 1970. A significant homogeneity break is found around 1990 for TMax and wet bulb temperature. The discontinuities detected after 1958 may have been caused by urbanization, as the observed warming trend in the station is considerably greater than that corresponding to regional climate.

Bayesian Analysis for Errors in Variables with Changepoint Models

Changepoint regression models have originally been developed in connection with applications in quality control, where a change from the in-control to the out-of-control state has to be detected based on the avaliable random observations. Up to now various changepoint models have been suggested for differents applications like reliability, econometrics or medicine. In many practical situations the covariate cannot be measured precisely and an alternative model are the errors in variable regression models. In this paper we study the regression model with errors in variables with changepoint from a Bayesian approach. From the simulation study we found that the proposed procedure produces estimates suitable for the changepoint and all other model parameters.

Examination of the performance of different pointwise linear regression progression criteria to detect glaucomatous visual field change

Background: We aimed to investigate the performance of five different trend analysis criteria for the detection of glaucomatous progression and to determine the most frequently and rapidly progressing locations of the visual field. Design: Retrospective cohort. Participants or Samples: Treated glaucoma patients with =8 Swedish Interactive Thresholding Algorithm (SITA)-standard 24-2 visual field tests. Methods: Progression was determined using trend analysis. Five different criteria were used: (A) =1 significantly progressing point; (B) =2 significantly progressing points; (C) =2 progressing points located in the same hemifield; (D) at least two adjacent progressing points located in the same hemifield; (E) =2 progressing points in the same Garway-Heath map sector. Main Outcome Measures: Number of progressing eyes and false-positive results. Results: We included 587 patients. The number of eyes reaching a progression endpoint using each criterion was: A = 300 (51%); B = 212 (36%); C = 194 (33%); D = 170 (29%); and E = 186 (31%) (P = 0.03). The numbers of eyes with positive slopes were: A = 13 (4.3%); B = 3 (1.4%); C = 3 (1.5%); D = 2 (1.1%); and E = 3 (1.6%) (P = 0.06). The global slopes for progressing eyes were more negative in Groups B, C and D than in Group A (P = 0.004). The visual field locations that progressed more often were those in the nasal field adjacent to the horizontal midline. Conclusions: Pointwise linear regression criteria that take into account the retinal nerve fibre layer anatomy enhances the specificity of trend analysis for the detection glaucomatous visual field progression.

The Effects of High Pressure on the Point of No Return in Simulated Penalty Kicks

We investigated the effects of high pressure on the point of no return or the minimum time required for a kicker to respond to the goalkeeper's dive in a simulated penalty kick task. The goalkeeper moved to one side with different times available for the participants to direct the ball to the opposite side in low-pressure (acoustically isolated laboratory) and high-pressure situations (with a participative audience). One group of participants showed a significant lengthening of the point of no return under high pressure. With less time available, performance was at chance level. Unexpectedly, in a second group of participants, high pressure caused a qualitative change in which for short times available participants were inclined to aim in the direction of the goalkeeper's move. The distinct effects of high pressure are discussed within attentional control theory to reflect a decreasing efficiency of the goal-driven attentional system, slowing down performance, and a decreasing effectiveness in inhibiting stimulus-driven behavior.

Dasatinib Overrides Imatinib Resistance Mediated by the F359I Residue Mutation in Two Patients with Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

Despite the beneficial effects of imatinib mesylate, some patients may either not respond or respond suboptimally. Here, we report two chronic myelogenous leukemia patients; one had a suboptimal response according to European LeukemiaNet criteria (a major molecular response was not achieved after 18 months of standard-dose imatinib therapy) and the other had failure with a standard dose of imatinib. At the time of the suboptimal response in patient 1 and the failure in patient 2, we were able to detect the F359I mutation in the BCR-ABL tyrosine kinase domain using DNA sequencing in both patients. Therefore, it was decided to change the therapeutic regimen to dasatinib at a dose of 100 mg once daily in both patients. This change resulted in the achievement of complete cytogenetic remission in patient 1 after 4 months and a major molecular response within 2 and 3 months in both patients. Detection of the F359I mutation in our two cases likely explains the suboptimal response to imatinib in case 1 and the failure in case 2. This implies that in such cases dasatinib should be considered to effectively suppress the mutated clones. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

Serologic and molecular diagnostic and bioassay in mice for detection of Toxoplasma gondii in free ranges chickens from Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul

Holsback L., Pena H.F.J., Ragozo A., Lopes E. G., Gennari S. M. & Soares R. M. 2012. Serologic and molecular diagnostic and bioassay in mice for detection of Toxoplasma gondii in free range chickens from Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul. Pesquisa Veterinaria Brasileira 32(8): 721-726. Setor de Veterinaria e Producao Animal, Universidade Estadual do Norte do Parana, Campus Luiz Meneghel, Rodovia BR 369 Km 54, Bandeirantes, PR 86360-000, Brazil. E-mail: lhsfertonani@uenp.edu.br The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of Toxoplasma gondii and compare the results obtained in the Modified Agglutination Test (MAT), Polimerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and bioassay in mice. In order to accomplish this, 40 free-range chickens from eight farms in neighboring areas to the Pantanal in Nhecolandia, Mato Grosso do Sul, were euthanized and blood samples, brain and heart were collected. The occurrence of anti-T. gondii antibodies found in chickens was 67.5% (27 samples), considering as a cutoff point the dilution 1:5. Among the samples analyzed, 7 (25.9%) were positive in the dilution 1: 5, 3 (11.1%) in 1: 10, 2 (7.4%) in 1: 20, 3 (11.1%) in 1: 320, 1 (3.7%) in 1: 640, 3 (11.1%) in 1: 1280, 2 (7.4%) in 1: 2560, 4 (14.8%) in 1: 5120 and 2 (7.4%) in 1: 10.240. From the mixture of tissue samples (brain and heart) from the chickens analyzed, 16 (40%) presented electrophoretic bands compatible with T. gondii by PCR (gene B1). In the comparison of techniques, 59.26% positivity in PCR was revealed among animals that were seropositive in MAT (cutoff 1: 5). From 141 inoculated mice, six (4.44%) died of acute toxoplasmosis between 15 and 23 days after inoculation. Surviving mice were sacrificed at 74 days after inoculation, and a total of 28 cysts were found in the brains of 10 distinct groups. From the seropositive hens, 27 bioassays were performed and 11 (40.7%) isolates were obtained. A greater number of isolations happened in mice that were inoculated with tissues from chickens that had high titers for anti-T. gondii antibodies. Chronic infection in mice was observed in nine groups (33.3%) from five different properties. Among the surviving mice, 25.6% were positive for T. gondii in MAT (1: 25). From mice positive in PCR, 87.5% were also positive in MAT. Among the PCR-negative mice, 5.2% were positive for T. gondii in MAT. It can be concluded through this study that the occurrence of infecton by T. gondii in the rural properties studied was high, that PCR directed to gene B1 does not confirm the viability of the parasite, but it can be used as a screening method for the selection of chickens infected by T. gondii, that the animals with titer greater than 10 must be prioritized for the selection of animals for bioassay, since for them, the chances of isolating the parasite are greater and that seroconversion in experimentally infected mice is not a good indicator for isolating the agent.

An environmentally friendly analytical procedure for nickel determination by atomic and molecular spectrometry after cloud point extraction in different samples

Cloud point extraction (CPE) was employed for separation and preconcentration prior to the determination of nickel by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS), flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) or UV-Vis spectrophotometry. Di-2-pyridyl ketone salicyloylhydrazone (DPKSH) was used for the first time as a complexing agent in CPE. The nickel complex was extracted from the aqueous phase using the Triton X-114 surfactant. Under optimized conditions, limits of detection obtained with GFAAS, FAAS and UV-Vis spectrophotometry were 0.14, 0.76 and 1.5 mu g L-1, respectively. The extraction was quantitative and the enrichment factor was estimated to be 27. The method was applied to natural waters, hemodialysis concentrates, urine and honey samples. Accuracy was evaluated by analysis of the NIST 1643e Water standard reference material.

Development of enzymic time-temperature integrators with rapid detection for evaluation of continuous HTST pasteurization processes

The assessment of the thermal process impact in terms of food safety and quality is of great importance for process evaluation and design. This can be accomplished from the analysis of the residence time and temperature distributions coupled with the kinetics of thermal change, or from the use of a proper time-temperature integrator (TTI) as indicator of safety and quality. The objective of this work was to develop and test enzymic TTIs with rapid detection for the evaluation of continuous HTST pasteurization processes (70-85 degrees C, 10-60 s) of low-viscosity liquid foods, such as milk and juices. Enzymes peroxidase, lactoperoxidase and alkaline phosphatase in phosphate buffer were tested and activity was determined with commercial reflectometric strips. Discontinuous thermal treatments at various time-temperature combinations were performed in order to adjust a first order kinetic model of a two-component system. The measured time-temperature history was considered instead of assuming isothermal conditions. Experiments with slow heating and cooling were used to validate the adjusted model. Only the alkaline phosphatase TTI showed potential to be used for the evaluation of pasteurization processes. The choice was based on the obtained z-values of the thermostable and thermolabile fractions, on the cost and on the validation tests. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.