Integration of spatial and temporal models to predict extreme water table depths

The objective of this work was to evaluate extreme water table depths in a watershed, using methods for geographical spatial data analysis. Groundwater spatio-temporal dynamics was evaluated in an outcrop of the Guarani Aquifer System. Water table depths were estimated from monitoring of water levels in 23 piezometers and time series modeling available from April 2004 to April 2011. For generation of spatial scenarios, geostatistical techniques were used, which incorporated into the prediction ancillary information related to the geomorphological patterns of the watershed, using a digital elevation model. This procedure improved estimates, due to the high correlation between water levels and elevation, and aggregated physical sense to predictions. The scenarios showed differences regarding the extreme levels - too deep or too shallow ones - and can subsidize water planning, efficient water use, and sustainable water management in the watershed.

Percolation transition in quantum Ising and rotor models with sub-Ohmic dissipation

We investigate the influence of sub-Ohmic dissipation on randomly diluted quantum Ising and rotor models. The dissipation causes the quantum dynamics of sufficiently large percolation clusters to freeze completely. As a result, the zero-temperature quantum phase transition across the lattice percolation threshold separates an unusual super-paramagnetic cluster phase from an inhomogeneous ferromagnetic phase. We determine the low-temperature thermodynamic behavior in both phases, which is dominated by large frozen and slowly fluctuating percolation clusters. We relate our results to the smeared transition scenario for disordered quantum phase transitions, and we compare the cases of sub-Ohmic, Ohmic, and super-Ohmic dissipation.

Clinical strategies for esthetic excellence in anterior tooth restorations: understanding color and composite resin selection

Direct composite resin restorations have become a viable alternative for patients that require anterior restorative procedures to be integrated to the other teeth that compose the smile, especially for presenting satisfactory esthetic results and minimum wear of the dental structure. Technological evolution along with a better understanding of the behavior of dental tissues to light incidence has allowed the development of new composite resins with better mechanical and optical properties, making possible a more artistic approach for anterior restorations. The combination of the increasing demand of patients for esthetics and the capacity to preserve the dental structure resulted in the development of different incremental techniques for restoring fractured anterior teeth in a natural way. In order to achieve esthetic excellence, dentists should understand and apply artistic and scientific principles when choosing color of restorative materials, as well as during the insertion of the composite resin. The discussion of these strategies will be divided into two papers. In this paper, the criteria for color and material selection to obtain a natural reproduction of the lost dental structures and an imperceptible restoration will be addressed.

Testing phenomenological and theoretical models of dark matter density profiles with galaxy clusters

We use the stacked gravitational lensingmass profile of four high-mass (M 1015M ) galaxy clusters around z≈0.3 from Umetsu et al. to fit density profiles of phenomenological [Navarro– Frenk–White (NFW), Einasto, S´ersic, Stadel, Baltz–Marshall–Oguri (BMO) and Hernquist] and theoretical (non-singular Isothermal Sphere, DARKexp and Kang & He) models of the dark matter distribution. We account for large-scale structure effects, including a two-halo term in the analysis.We find that the BMO model provides the best fit to the data as measured by the reduced χ2. It is followed by the Stadel profile, the generalized NFW profile with a free inner slope and by the Einasto profile. The NFW model provides the best fit if we neglect the two-halo term, in agreement with results from Umetsu et al. Among the theoretical profiles, the DARKexp model with a single form parameter has the best performance, very close to that of the BMO profile. This may indicate a connection between this theoretical model and the phenomenology of dark matter haloes, shedding light on the dynamical basis of empirical profiles which emerge from numerical simulations.

Using occupancy models to investigate space partitioning between two sympatric large predators, the jaguar and puma in central Brazil

Coexistence of sympatric species is mediated by resource partitioning. Pumas occur sympatrically with jaguars throughout most of the jaguar's range but few studies have investigated space partitioning between both species. Here, camera trapping and occupancy models accounting for imperfect detection were employed in a Bayesian framework to investigate space partitioning between the jaguar and puma in Emas National Park (ENP), central Brazil. Jaguars were estimated to occupy 54.1% and pumas 39.3% of the sample sites. Jaguar occupancy was negatively correlated with distance to water and positively correlated with the amount of dense habitat surrounding the camera trap. Puma occupancy only showed a weak negative correlation with distance to water and with jaguar presence. Both species were less often present at the same site than expected under independent distributions. Jaguars had a significantly higher detection probability at cameras on roads than at off-road locations. For pumas, detection was similar on and off-road. Results indicate that both differences in habitat use and active avoidance shape space partitioning between jaguars and pumas in ENP. Considering its size, the jaguar is likely the competitively dominant of the two species. Owing to its habitat preferences, suitable jaguar habitat outside the park is probably sparse. Consequently, the jaguar population is likely largely confined to the park, while the puma population is known to extend into ENP's surroundings. (C) 2011 Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Saugetierkunde. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A new damage model for composite laminates

Aircraft composite structures must have high stiffness and strength with low weight, which can guarantee the increase of the pay-load for airplanes without losing airworthiness. However, the mechanical behavior of composite laminates is very complex due the inherent anisotropy and heterogeneity. Many researchers have developed different failure progressive analyses and damage models in order to predict the complex failure mechanisms. This work presents a damage model and progressive failure analysis that requires simple experimental tests and that achieves good accuracy. Firstly, the paper explains damage initiation and propagation criteria and a procedure to identify the material parameters. In the second stage, the model was implemented as a UMAT (User Material Subroutine), which is linked to finite element software, ABAQUS (TM), in order to predict the composite structures behavior. Afterwards, some case studies, mainly off-axis coupons under tensile or compression loads, with different types of stacking sequence were analyzed using the proposed material model. Finally, the computational results were compared to the experimental results, verifying the capability of the damage model in order to predict the composite structure behavior. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

Covariates of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are distinct for incident CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 as disclosed by competing-risks regression models

Background: In addition to the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV), several cofactors are needed in cervical carcinogenesis, but whether the HPV covariates associated with incident i) CIN1 are different from those of incident ii) CIN2 and iii) CIN3 needs further assessment. Objectives: To gain further insights into the true biological differences between CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, we assessed HPV covariates associated with incident CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3. Study Design and Methods: HPV covariates associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 were analysed in the combined cohort of the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS study (n = 12,114), using competing-risks regression models (in panel data) for baseline HR-HPV-positive women (n = 1,105), who represent a sub-cohort of all 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in these two studies. Results: Altogether, 90 (4.8%), 39 (2.1%) and 14 (1.4%) cases progressed to CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3, respectively. Among these baseline HR-HPV-positive women, the risk profiles of incident GIN I, CIN2 and CIN3 were unique in that completely different HPV covariates were associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, irrespective which categories (non-progression, CIN1, CIN2, CIN3 or all) were used as competing-risks events in univariate and multivariate models. Conclusions: These data confirm our previous analysis based on multinomial regression models implicating that distinct covariates of HR-HPV are associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3. This emphasises true biological differences between the three grades of GIN, which revisits the concept of combining CIN2 with CIN3 or with CIN1 in histological classification or used as a common end-point, e.g., in HPV vaccine trials.

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

Occurrence and behavior of butyltins in intertidal and shallow subtidal surface sediments of an estuarine beach under different sampling conditions

Contamination by butyltin compounds (BTs) has been reported in estuarine environments worldwide, with serious impacts on the biota of these areas. Considering that BTs can be degraded by varying environmental conditions such as incident light and salinity, the short-term variations in such factors may lead to inaccurate estimates of BTs concentrations in nature. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the possibility that measurements of BTs in estuarine sediments are influenced by different sampling conditions, including period of the day (day or night), tidal zone (intertidal or subtidal), and tides (high or low). The study area is located on the Brazilian southeastern coast, Sao Vicente Estuary, at Pescadores Beach, where BT contamination was previously detected. Three replicate samples of surface sediment were collected randomly in each combination of period of the day, tidal zone, and tide condition, from three subareas along the beach, totaling 72 samples. BTs were analyzed by GC-PFPD using a tin filter and a VF-5 column, by means of a validated method. The concentrations of tributyltin (TBT), dibutyltin (DBT), and monobutyltin (MBT) ranged from undetectable to 161 ng Sn g(-1) (d.w.). In most samples (71%), only MBT was quantifiable, whereas TBTs were measured in only 14, suggesting either an old contamination or rapid degradation processes. DBT was found in 27 samples, but could be quantified in only one. MBT concentrations did not differ significantly with time of day, zones, or tide conditions. DBT and TBT could not be compared under all these environmental conditions, because only a few samples were above the quantification limit. Pooled samples of TBT did not reveal any difference between day and night. These results indicated that, in assessing contamination by butyltin compounds, surface-sediment samples can be collected in any environmental conditions. However, the wide variation of BTs concentrations in the study area, i.e., over a very small geographic scale, illustrates the need for representative hierarchical and composite sampling designs that are compatible with the multiscalar temporal and spatial variability common to most marine systems. The use of such sampling designs will be necessary for future attempts to quantitatively evaluate and monitor the occurrence and impact of these compounds in nature

A comparative study between crack analysis and a mechanical test for assessing the polymerization stress of restorative composites

Objectives. To verify the hypothesis that crack analysis and a mechanical test would rank a series of composites in a similar order with respect to polymerization stress. Also, both tests would show similar relationships between stress and composite elastic modulus and/or shrinkage. Methods. Soda-lime glass discs (2-mm thick) with a central perforation (3.5-mm diameter) received four Vickers indentations 500 mu m from the cavity margin. The indent cracks were measured (500x) prior and 10 min after the cavity was restored with one of six materials (Kalore/KL, Gradia/GR, Ice/IC, Wave/WV, Majesty Flow/MF, and Majesty Posterior/MP). Stresses at the indent site were calculated based on glass fracture toughness and increase in crack length. Stress at the bonded interface was calculated using the equation for an internally pressurized cylinder. The mechanical test used a universal testing machine and glass rods (5-mm diameter) as substrate. An extensometer monitored specimen height (2 mm). Nominal stress was calculated dividing the maximum shrinkage force by the specimen cross-sectional area. Composite elastic modulus was determined by nanoindentation and post-gel shrinkage was measured using strain gages. Data were subjected to one-way ANOVA/Tukey or Kruskal-Wallis/Mann-Whitney tests (alpha: 5%). Results. Both tests grouped the composites in three statistical subsets, with small differences in overlapping between the intermediate subset (MF, WV) and the highest (MP, IC) or the lowest stress materials (KL, GR). Higher stresses were developed by composites with high modulus and/or high shrinkage. Significance. Crack analysis demonstrated to be as effective as the mechanical test to rank composites regarding polymerization stress. (c) 2012 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive models for mutations in mismatch repair genes: implication for genetic counseling in developing countries

Background: Lynch syndrome (LS) is the most common form of inherited predisposition to colorectal cancer (CRC), accounting for 2-5% of all CRC. LS is an autosomal dominant disease characterized by mutations in the mismatch repair genes mutL homolog 1 (MLH1), mutS homolog 2 (MSH2), postmeiotic segregation increased 1 (PMS1), post-meiotic segregation increased 2 (PMS2) and mutS homolog 6 (MSH6). Mutation risk prediction models can be incorporated into clinical practice, facilitating the decision-making process and identifying individuals for molecular investigation. This is extremely important in countries with limited economic resources. This study aims to evaluate sensitivity and specificity of five predictive models for germline mutations in repair genes in a sample of individuals with suspected Lynch syndrome. Methods: Blood samples from 88 patients were analyzed through sequencing MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6 genes. The probability of detecting a mutation was calculated using the PREMM, Barnetson, MMRpro, Wijnen and Myriad models. To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the models, receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed. Results: Of the 88 patients included in this analysis, 31 mutations were identified: 16 were found in the MSH2 gene, 15 in the MLH1 gene and no pathogenic mutations were identified in the MSH6 gene. It was observed that the AUC for the PREMM (0.846), Barnetson (0.850), MMRpro (0.821) and Wijnen (0.807) models did not present significant statistical difference. The Myriad model presented lower AUC (0.704) than the four other models evaluated. Considering thresholds of >= 5%, the models sensitivity varied between 1 (Myriad) and 0.87 (Wijnen) and specificity ranged from 0 (Myriad) to 0.38 (Barnetson). Conclusions: The Barnetson, PREMM, MMRpro and Wijnen models present similar AUC. The AUC of the Myriad model is statistically inferior to the four other models.

Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, incidence, and residual risk of transmission by transfusions at Retrovirus Epidemiology Donor Study-II blood centers in Brazil

BACKGROUND: In Brazil nationally representative donor data are limited on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence, incidence, and residual transfusion risk. The objective of this study was to analyze HIV data obtained over 24 months by the Retrovirus Epidemiology Donor Study-II program in Brazil. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Donations reactive to third-and fourth-generation immunoassays (IAs) were further confirmed by a less-sensitive (LS) IA algorithm and Western blot (WB). Incidence was calculated for first-time (FT) donors using the LS-EIA results and for repeat donors with a model developed to include all donors with a previous negative donation. Residual risk was projected by multiplying composite FT and repeat donor incidence rates by HIV marker-negative infectious window periods. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among FT donors was 92.2/ 105 donations. FT and repeat donor and composite incidences were 38.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.651.4), 22.5 (95% CI, 17.6-28.0), and 27.5 (95% CI, 22.0-33.0) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Male and community donors had higher prevalence and incidence rates than female and replacement donors. The estimated residual risk of HIV transfusion transmission was 11.3 per 106 donations (95% CI, 8.4-14.2), which could be reduced to 4.2 per 106 donations (95% CI, 3.2-5.2) by use of individual-donation nucleic acid testing (NAT). CONCLUSION: The incidence and residual transfusion risk of HIV infection are relatively high in Brazil. Implementation of NAT will not be sufficient to decrease transmission rates to levels seen in the United States or Europe; therefore, other measures focused on decreasing donations by at-risk individuals are also necessary.

Maternal obesity in high-risk pregnancies and postpartum infectious complications

Objective: To analyze the association between maternal obesity and postnatal infectious complications in high-risk pregnancies. Methods: Prospective study from August 2009 through August 2010 with the following inclusion criteria: women up to the 5th postpartum day; age L 18 years; high-risk pregnancy; singleton pregnancy with live fetus at labor onset; delivery at the institution; maternal weight measured on day of delivery. The nutritional status in late pregnancy was assessed by the body mass index (BMI), with the application of the Atalah et al. curve. Patients were graded as underweight, adequate weight, overweight, or obese. Postpartum complications investigated during the hospital stay and 30 days post-discharge were: surgical wound infection and/or secretion, urinary infection, postpartum infection, fever, hospitalization, antibiotic use, and composite morbidity (at least one of the complications mentioned). Results: 374 puerperal women were included, graded according to the final BMI as: underweight (n = 54, 14.4%); adequate weight (n = 126, 33.7%); overweight (n = 105, 28.1%); and obese (n = 89, 23.8%). Maternal obesity was shown to have a significant association with the following postpartum complications: surgical wound infection (16.7%, p = 0.042), urinary infection (9.0%, p = 0.004), antibiotic use (12.3%, p < 0.001), and composite morbidity (25.6%, p = 0.016). By applying the logistic regression model, obesity in late pregnancy was found to be an independent variable regardless of the composite morbidity predicted (OR: 2.09; 95% CI: 1.15-3.80, p = 0.015). Conclusion: Maternal obesity during late pregnancy in high-risk patients is independently associated with postpartum infectious complications, which demonstrates the need for a closer follow-up of maternal weight gain in these pregnancies.

Nd:YAG Laser Irradiation of Etched/Unetched Dentin Through an Uncured Two-step Etch-and-Rinse Adhesive and its Effect on Microtensile Bond Strength

Purpose: To evaluate whether Nd:YAG laser irradiation of etched and unetched dentin through an uncured adhesive affected the microtensile bond strength (pTBS). Materials and Methods: Flat dentin surfaces were created in 19 extracted human third molars. Adper Single Bond (SB) adhesive was applied over etched (groups 1 to 3) or unetched dentin (groups 4 to 6). The dentin was then irradiated with a Nd:YAG laser through the uncured adhesive, using 0.75 or 1 W power settings, except for the control groups (groups 1 and 4). The adhesive was light cured and composite crowns were built up. After 24 h, the teeth were sectioned into beams, with cross-sectional areas of 0.49 mm(2), and were stressed under tension. Data were statistically analyzed using two-way ANOVA and Tukey's test (alpha = 5%). Dentin surfaces of fractured specimens and the interfaces of untested beams were observed under scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Results: Acid etching, laser irradiation, and their interaction significantly affected bonding (p < 0.05). Laser irradiation did not improve bonding of etched dentin to resin (p > 0.05). However, higher pTBS means were found on unetched lased dentin (groups 5 and 6), but only in comparison to group 4, where neither lasing nor etching was performed. Groups 4 to 6 showed the lowest pTBS means among all groups tested (p < 0.05). Laser irradiation did not change the characteristics of the hybrid layers created, while solidification globules were observed on lased dentin surfaces under SEM. Conclusion: Laser irradiation of dentin through the uncured adhesive did not significantly improve the pTBS in comparison to the suggested manufacturer's technique.