The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation

The study introduces a new regression model developed to estimate the hourly values of diffuse solar radiation at the surface. The model is based on the clearness index and diffuse fraction relationship, and includes the effects of cloud (cloudiness and cloud type), traditional meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure observed at the surface) and air pollution (concentration of particulate matter observed at the surface). The new model is capable of predicting hourly values of diffuse solar radiation better than the previously developed ones (R-2 = 0.93 and RMSE = 0.085). A simple version with a large applicability is proposed that takes into consideration cloud effects only (cloudiness and cloud height) and shows a R-2 = 0.92. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The remarkable solar twin HIP 56948: a prime target in the quest for other Earths

Context. The Sun shows abundance anomalies relative to most solar twins. If the abundance peculiarities are due to the formation of inner rocky planets, that would mean that only a small fraction of solar type stars may host terrestrial planets. Aims. In this work we study HIP 56948, the best solar twin known to date, to determine with an unparalleled precision how similar it is to the Sun in its physical properties, chemical composition and planet architecture. We explore whether the abundances anomalies may be due to pollution from stellar ejecta or to terrestrial planet formation. Methods. We perform a differential abundance analysis (both in LTE and NLTE) using high resolution (R similar to 100 000) high S/N (600-650) Keck HIRES spectra of the Sun (as reflected from the asteroid Ceres) and HIP 56948. We use precise radial velocity data from the McDonald and Keck observatories to search for planets around this star. Results. We achieve a precision of sigma less than or similar to 0.003 dex for several elements. Including errors in stellar parameters the total uncertainty is as low as sigma similar or equal to 0.005 dex (1%), which is unprecedented in elemental abundance studies. The similarities between HIP 56948 and the Sun are astonishing. HIP 56948 is only 17 +/- 7 K hotter than the Sun, and log g, [Fe/H] and microturbulence velocity are only +0.02 +/- 0.02 dex, +0.02 +/- 0.01 dex and +0.01 +/- 0.01 km s(-1) higher than solar, respectively. Our precise stellar parameters and a differential isochrone analysis shows that HIP 56948 has a mass of 1.02 +/- 0.02 M-circle dot and that it is similar to 1 Gyr younger than the Sun, as constrained by isochrones, chromospheric activity, Li and rotation. Both stars show a chemical abundance pattern that differs from most solar twins, but the refractory elements (those with condensation temperature T-cond greater than or similar to 1000 K) are slightly (similar to 0.01 dex) more depleted in the Sun than in HIP 56948. The trend with T-cond in differential abundances (twins -HIP 56948) can be reproduced very well by adding similar to 3 M-circle plus of a mix of Earth and meteoritic material, to the convection zone of HIP 56948. The element-to-element scatter of the Earth/meteoritic mix for the case of hypothetical rocky planets around HIP 56948 is only 0.0047 dex. From our radial velocity monitoring we find no indications of giant planets interior to or within the habitable zone of HIP 56948. Conclusions. We conclude that HIP 56948 is an excellent candidate to host a planetary system like our own, including the possible presence of inner terrestrial planets. Its striking similarity to the Sun and its mature age makes HIP 56948 a prime target in the quest for other Earths and SETI endeavors.

Mass extinctions, galactic orbits in the solar neighborhood and the Sun: a connection?

The orbits of the stars in the disk of the Galaxy, and their passages through the Galactic spiral arms, are a rarely mentioned factor of biosphere stability which might be important for long-term planetary climate evolution, with a possible bearing on mass extinctions. The Sun lies very near the co-rotation radius, where stars revolve around the Galaxy in the same period as the density wave perturbations of the spiral arms. conventional wisdom generally considers that this status makes for few passages through the spiral arms. Controversy still surrounds whether time spent inside or around spiral arms is dangerous to biospheres and conductive to mass extinctions. Possible threats include giant molecular clouds disturbing the Oort comet cloud and provoking heavy bombardment: a higher exposure to cosmic rays near star forming regions triggering increased cloudiness in Earth atmosphere and ice ages; and the desctruction of Earth's ozone layer posed by supernova explosiosn. We present detailed calculations of the history of spiral arm passages for all 212 solar-type stars nearer than 20 parsecs, including the total time spent inside armsin the last 500 Myr, when the spiral arm position can be traced with good accuracy. We found that there is a large diversity of stellar orbits in the solar neighborhood, and the time fraction spent inside spiral arms can vary from a few percent to nearly half the time. The Sun, despite its proximity to the galactic co-rotation radius, has exceptionally low eccentricity and a low vertical velocity component, and therefore spends 30% of its lifetime crossing the spiral arms, more than most nearby stars. We discuss the possible implications of this fact to the long-term habitability of the Earth, and possible correlations of the Sun's passage through the spiral arms with the five great mass extinctions of the Earth's biosphere from the Late Ordovician to the Cretaceous-Tertiary.