Identification and characterization of drought/wet events homogeneous environments based on regional climate simulations

The objective of this study was to identify and characterize homogeneous environments based on the probability of drought/wet occurrence in the central-northern Brazil, considering Rondonia, Mato Grosso, Goias and Tocantins States. The drought index denominated the moisture anomaly Z-index (Z-index) was used. The input climate data for the drought index was generated by the regional climate model RegCM3 for the period from 1975 to 1989. As result of cluster analysis, it was identified 13 homogeneous environments. These environments were characterized based on the probability of drought/wet, relative density of drought/wet occurrence, annual rainfall variability and probability of drought occurrence during the rainy season (October to March). The Mato Grosso State had the highest number of homogeneous environments and the environment 11, located at southwest of this State had the highest probability of drought occurrence, 9%. The environment 10, located at the extreme east of Goias State, showed the lowest median for the total annual rainfall. The climatic event with the highest probability of occurrence in the study area is close to normal or normality moisture.

RegCM3 nested in HadAM3 scenarios A2 and B2: projected changes in extratropical cyclogenesis, temperature and precipitation over the South Atlantic Ocean

The RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model-version 3) was nested in HadAM3 model to simulate present (1975-1989, referred hereafter as RegHad) and two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2 from 2071 to 2085, referred as RegA2 and RegB2) over the South America (SA) and South Atlantic Ocean (SAO). Projected changes in the air temperature, precipitation, low level circulation and cyclogenesis climatology were investigated. The cyclogenesis were identified using an automatic scheme for tracking based on the minimum of relative vorticity (zeta) from 10-m height wind. During summer, a general decrease (increase) in the precipitation is projected by RegA2 and RegB2 over the northeastern SA (center-west and south Brazil, north Argentina and Uruguay). For winter, an anomalous low level anticyclonic circulation is associated with the reduction in the rainfall over the central part of southern Brazil in RegA2 and RegB2 scenarios. Similar to HadAM3, RegCM3 projects larger warming in A2 scenario. For the present climate, when compared to HadAM3, RegHad defines better both the location of the main cyclogenetic areas and its annual cycle near southwestern SAO. The projections indicate a reduction in the total number of cyclones of -7.2% and -4.7% for RegA2 and RegB2, respectively, while HadAM3 reduction is -4.5% for both scenarios. The decrease is larger for initially intense cyclones (zeta <=-<= 2.5 x 10(-5) s-(1)): -20.9% (RegA2) and -11.3% (RegB2). For the lifetime, distance traveled and mean velocity of the cyclones, the A2 and B2 scenarios present mean values close to the present climate ( 3 days, 1900 km, and 9 m s(-1), respectively). Regarding the initial mean vorticity of the systems, RegB2 simulates values similar to the present climate, but they are initially weaker in RegA2. In general, RegA2 and RegB2 show a large decrease in the number of cyclones over the southern SAO due to an anticyclonic anomaly covering SAO between 30-55A degrees S. The reduction is larger in the scenario with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases (RegA2).

Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

This work assessed homogeneity of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG) weather station climate series, using various statistical techniques. The record from this target station is one of the longest in Brazil, having commenced in 1933 with observations of precipitation, and temperatures and other variables later in 1936. Thus, it is one of the few stations in Brazil with enough data for long-term climate variability and climate change studies. There is, however, a possibility that its data may have been contaminated by some artifacts over time. Admittedly, there was an intervention on the observations in 1958, with the replacement of instruments, for which the size of impact has not been yet evaluated. The station transformed in the course of time from rural to urban, and this may also have influenced homogeneity of the observations and makes the station less representative for climate studies over larger spatial scales. Homogeneity of the target station was assessed applying both absolute, or single station tests, and tests relatively to regional climate, in annual scale, regarding daily precipitation, relative humidity, maximum (TMax), minimum (TMin), and wet bulb temperatures. Among these quantities, only precipitation does not exhibit any inhomogeneity. A clear signal of change of instruments in 1958 was detected in the TMax and relative humidity data, the latter certainly because of its strong dependence on temperature. This signal is not very clear in TMin, but it presents non-climatic discontinuities around 1953 and around 1970. A significant homogeneity break is found around 1990 for TMax and wet bulb temperature. The discontinuities detected after 1958 may have been caused by urbanization, as the observed warming trend in the station is considerably greater than that corresponding to regional climate.

Representation of the Weddell Sea deep water masses in the ocean component of the NCAR-CCSM model

We examine Weddell Sea deep water mass distributions with respect to the results from three different model runs using the oceanic component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM). One run is inter-annually forced by corrected NCAR/NCEP fluxes, while the other two are forced with the annual cycle obtained from the same climatology. One of the latter runs includes an interactive sea-ice model. Optimum Multiparameter analysis is applied to separate the deep water masses in the Greenwich Meridian section (into the Weddell Sea only) to measure the degree of realism obtained in the simulations. First, we describe the distribution of the simulated deep water masses using observed water type indices. Since the observed indices do not provide an acceptable representation of the Weddell Sea deep water masses as expected, they are specifically adjusted for each simulation. Differences among the water masses` representations in the three simulations are quantified through their root-mean-square differences. Results point out the need for better representation (and inclusion) of ice-related processes in order to improve the oceanic characteristics and variability of dense Southern Ocean water masses in the outputs of the NCAR-CCSM model, and probably in other ocean and climate models.

Reproducibility of South American precipitation due to subtropical South Atlantic SSTs

This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

Effects of RegCM3 parameterizations on simulated rainy season over South America

The impacts of change in the Grell convective scheme and biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) in RegCM3 are described. Three numerical experiments (RegZhang, RegClaris and RegArain) are conducted to reduce the RegCM3-Grell rainfall underestimation over tropical South America. The simulation referred to as RegZhang follows modifications made by Zhang et al. (2008) in the BATS. The RegClaris combines the RegZhang BATS parameters with a reduction of water drainage at the bottom of the subsoil layer in the regions covered by the tropical rain forest and a shorter convective time period for the Grell scheme. The RegArain considers this same modification in the Grell scheme, but uses a deeper total soil column and a deeper root system in the BATS. After the first year of simulation, the soil water content in RegZhang is progressively drained out of the soil column resulting in a deficit of rainfall in the Amazon. The RegClaris and RegArain, on the other hand, simulate a similar rainfall annual cycle in the Amazon, showing substantial improvement not only in phase but also in intensity. This improvement is partially related to an increase in evapotranspiration due to a larger availability of water in the soil column. A remote effect is also noted over the La Plata Basin region, where the larger summer rainfall rate may be related to the increase in moisture transport from the Amazon. Wind- and rainfall-based indices are applied to identify South American monsoon (SAM) timing. The RegClaris rainfall rates are adequate to identify the onset and the demise of SAM according to the observed data, whereas the rainfall deficit in RegZhang is associated with a delay in the onset and an early demise of the SAM.

Identificação e caracterização de ambientes homogêneos de eventos de seca/umidade com base em simulações climáticas regionais

O objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar e caracterizar ambientes homogêneos com base na ocorrência de eventos de seca/umidade na Região Centro-Norte do Brasil, compreendendo os Estados de Rondônia, Mato Grosso, Goiás e Tocantins. Para esse fim, utilizou-se o índice quantitativo de seca denominado Anomalia de Umidade de Palmer (Z-index). Os dados climáticos de entrada utilizados por esse índice para quantificar os eventos de seca/umidade foram simulados pelo modelo regional climático RegCM3 ("Regional ClimateModel - version3"), para o período de 1975 a 1989. Por meio de análise de agrupamento foram identificados 13 ambientes homogêneos. Esses ambientes homogêneos foram caracterizados por meio da probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos de seca/umidade, densidade relativa destes eventos, variabilidade da precipitação pluvial anual e a probabilidade de ocorrência de seca na época das águas (outubro a maio). No Estado do Mato Grosso observou-se o maior número de ambientes homogêneos e na Região Sudoeste desse Estado, o ambiente 11, obteve a maior probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos extremamente seco, 9%. O ambiente 10, localizado no extremo leste de Goiás, teve a menor mediana para a precipitação pluvial anual. O evento climático com maior probabilidade de ocorrência na região de estudo é o próximo ao normal ou normalidade de umidade.

Pollination services at risk: Bee habitats will decrease owing to climate change in Brazil

Native bees are important providers of pollination services, but there are cumulative evidences of their decline. Global changes such as habitat losses, invasions of exotic species and climate change have been suggested as the main causes of the decline of pollinators. In this study, the influence of climate change on the distribution of 10 species of Brazilian bees was estimated with species distribution modelling. We used Maxent algorithm (maximum entropy) and two different scenarios, an optimistic and a pessimistic, to the years 2050 and 2080. We also evaluated the percentage reduction of species habitat based on the future scenarios of climate change through Geographic Information System (GIS). Results showed that the total area of suitable habitats decreased for all species but one under the different future scenarios. The greatest reductions in habitat area were found for Melipona bicolor bicolor and Melipona scutellaris, which occur predominantly in areas related originally to Atlantic Moist Forest. The species analysed have been reported to be pollinators of some regional crops and the consequence of their decrease for these crops needs further clarification. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.