On estimating the basic reproduction number in distinct stages of a contagious disease spreading

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number R-0 is usually defined as the average number of new infections caused by a single infective individual introduced into a completely susceptible population. According to this definition. R-0 is related to the initial stage of the spreading of a contagious disease. However, from epidemiological models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE), R-0 is commonly derived from a linear stability analysis and interpreted as a bifurcation parameter: typically, when R-0 >1, the contagious disease tends to persist in the population because the endemic stationary solution is asymptotically stable: when R-0 <1, the corresponding pathogen tends to naturally disappear because the disease-free stationary solution is asymptotically stable. Here we intend to answer the following question: Do these two different approaches for calculating R-0 give the same numerical values? In other words, is the number of secondary infections caused by a unique sick individual equal to the threshold obtained from stability analysis of steady states of ODE? For finding the answer, we use a susceptibleinfective-recovered (SIR) model described in terms of ODE and also in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. The values of R-0 obtained from both approaches are compared, showing good agreement. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Number of recent sexual partners among blood donors in Brazil: associations with donor demographics, donation characteristics, and infectious disease markers

BACKGROUND: Brazilian blood centers ask candidate blood donors about the number of sexual partners in the past 12 months. Candidates who report a number over the limit are deferred. We studied the implications of this practice on blood safety. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed demographic characteristics, number of heterosexual partners, and disease marker rates among 689,868 donations from three Brazilian centers between July 2007 and December 2009. Donors were grouped based on maximum number of partners allowed in the past 12 months for each center. Chi-square and logistic regression analysis were conducted to examine associations between demographic characteristics, number of sex partners, and individual and overall positive markers rates for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), human T-lymphotropic virus Types 1 and 2, hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and syphilis. RESULTS: First-time, younger, and more educated donors were associated with a higher number of recent sexual partners, as was male sex in Sao Paulo and Recife (p < 0.001). Serologic markers for HIV and syphilis and overall were associated with multiple partners in Sao Paulo and Recife (p < 0.001), but not in Belo Horizonte (p = 0.05, p = 0.94, and p = 0.75, respectively). In logistic regression analysis, number of recent sexual partners was associated with positive serologic markers (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.2-1.5), especially HIV (AOR, 1.9-4.4). CONCLUSIONS: Number of recent heterosexual partners was associated with HIV positivity and overall rates of serologic markers of sexually transmitted infections. The association was not consistent across centers, making it difficult to define the best cutoff value. These findings suggest the use of recent heterosexual contacts as a potentially important deferral criterion to improve blood safety in Brazil.

Does anti-obsessional pharmacotherapy treat so-called comorbid depressive and anxiety states?

Background: Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a chronic condition that normally presents high rates of psychiatric comorbidity. Depression, tic disorders and other anxiety disorders are among the most common comorbidities in OCD adult patients. There is evidence that the higher the number of psychiatric comorbidities, the worse the OCD treatment response. However, little is known about the impact of OCD treatment on the outcome of the psychiatric comorbidities usually present in OCD patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of exclusive, conventional treatments for OCD on the outcome of additional psychiatric disorders of OCD patients, detected at baseline. Methods: Seventy-six patients with primary OCD admitted to the treatment protocols of the Obsessive-Compulsive Spectrum Disorders Program between July 2007 and December 2009 were evaluated at pre-treatment and after 12 months. Data were analyzed to verify possible associations between,OCD treatment response and the outcome of psychiatric comorbidities. Results: Results showed a significant association between OCD treatment response and improvement of major depression and dysthymia (p-value = 0.002), other anxiety disorders (generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, specific phobia, posttraumatic stress disorder, panic disorder, agoraphobia and anxiety disorder not otherwise specified) (p-value = 0.054) and tic disorders (p-value = 0.043). Limitations: This is an open, non-blinded study, without rating scales for comorbid conditions. Further research is necessary focusing on the possible mechanisms by which OCD treatment could improve these specific disorders. Conclusions: Our results suggest that certain comorbid disorders may benefit from OCD-targeted treatment. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The radical SeCl: A theoretical contribution to the characterization of its low-lying electronic states

All doublet and quartet electronic states correlating with the first dissociation channel of SeCl and some Rydberg states are investigated theoretically at the CASSCF/MRCI level of theory using extended basis sets, including the contribution of spin-orbit effects. The similarity of the potential energy curves with those of SeF suggests that spectroscopic constants for the ground (X (2)Pi) and the first excited quartet (a(4)Sigma) of SeCl could also be determined via an emission resulting from the reaction of selenium with atomic chlorine. The coupling constant of the ground state at R-e is estimated as -1610 cm (1). The potential energy curves calculated and the derived spectroscopic constants do not support the interpretation and assignment of the scarce transitions recorded experimentally as due to (2)Pi-(2)Pi emissions. That the few observed lines might arise from transitions from the state b(4)Sigma(-)(1/2) to a very high vibrational level of the state a(4)Sigma(-)(1/2) is an open possibility, however, the number of vibrational states and the calculated Delta G(1/2) differ significantly from the reported ones. (C) 2012 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

On reducing test length for FSMs with extra states

A long-standing problem when testing from a deterministic finite state machine is to guarantee full fault coverage even if the faults introduce extra states in the implementations. It is well known that such tests should include the sequences in a traversal set which contains all input sequences of length defined by the number of extra states. This paper suggests the SPY method, which helps reduce the length of tests by distributing sequences of the traversal set and reducing test branching. It is also demonstrated that an additional assumption about the implementation under test relaxes the requirement of the complete traversal set. The results of the experimental comparison of the proposed method with an existing method indicate that the resulting reduction can reach 40%. Experimental results suggest that the additional assumption about the implementation can help in further reducing the test suite length. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Deviation from quark number scaling of the anisotropy parameter v(2) of pions, kaons, and protons in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

Measurements of the anisotropy parameter v(2) of identified hadrons (pions, kaons, and protons) as a function of centrality, transverse momentum p(T), and transverse kinetic energy KET at midrapidity (vertical bar eta vertical bar < 0.35) in Au + Au collisions at root s(N N) = 200 GeV are presented. Pions and protons are identified up to p(T) = 6 GeV/c, and kaons up to p(T) = 4 GeV/c, by combining information from time-of-flight and aerogel Cerenkov detectors in the PHENIX Experiment. The scaling of v(2) with the number of valence quarks (n(q)) has been studied in different centrality bins as a function of transverse momentum and transverse kinetic energy. A deviation from previously observed quark-number scaling is observed at large values of KET/n(q) in noncentral Au + Au collisions (20-60%), but this scaling remains valid in central collisions (0-10%).

Phylogenetic relation among bovine rabies cases from Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo States, Brazil: a possible common origin

Acknowledgements: CAPES, FAPESP process number 2011/06236-0