8 resultados para Natural disaster warning systems.

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease estimated to cause about 230 million infections worldwide every year, of which 25,000 are fatal. Global incidence has risen rapidly in recent decades with some 3.6 billion people, over half of the world's population, now at risk, mainly in urban centres of the tropics and subtropics. Demographic and societal changes, in particular urbanization, globalization, and increased international travel, are major contributors to the rise in incidence and geographic expansion of dengue infections. Major research gaps continue to hamper the control of dengue. The European Commission launched a call under the 7th Framework Programme with the title of 'Comprehensive control of Dengue fever under changing climatic conditions'. Fourteen partners from several countries in Europe, Asia, and South America formed a consortium named 'DengueTools' to respond to the call to achieve better diagnosis, surveillance, prevention, and predictive models and improve our understanding of the spread of dengue to previously uninfected regions (including Europe) in the context of globalization and climate change. The consortium comprises 12 work packages to address a set of research questions in three areas: Research area 1: Develop a comprehensive early warning and surveillance system that has predictive capability for epidemic dengue and benefits from novel tools for laboratory diagnosis and vector monitoring. Research area 2: Develop novel strategies to prevent dengue in children. Research area 3: Understand and predict the risk of global spread of dengue, in particular the risk of introduction and establishment in Europe, within the context of parameters of vectorial capacity, global mobility, and climate change. In this paper, we report on the rationale and specific study objectives of 'DengueTools'. DengueTools is funded under the Health theme of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community, Grant Agreement Number: 282589 Dengue Tools.

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Abstract Background This article aims to discuss the incorporation of traditional time in the construction of a management scenario for pink shrimp in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil. To meet this objective, two procedures have been adopted; one at a conceptual level and another at a methodological level. At the conceptual level, the concept of traditional time as a form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) was adopted. Method At the methodological level, we conduct a wide literature review of the scientific knowledge (SK) that guides recommendations for pink shrimp management by restricting the fishing season in the Patos Lagoon estuary; in addition, we review the ethno-scientific literature which describes traditional calendars as a management base for artisanal fishers in the Patos Lagoon estuary. Results Results demonstrate that TEK and SK describe similar estuarine biological processes, but are incommensurable at a resource management level. On the other hand, the construction of a “management scenario” for pink shrimp is possible through the development of “criteria for hierarchies of validity” which arise from a productive dialog between SK and TEK. Conclusions The commensurable and the incommensurable levels reveal different basis of time-space perceptions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge. Despite incommensurability at the management level, it is possible to establish guidelines for the construction of “management scenarios” and to support a co-management process.

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Non-myrmecophilous lepidopteran larvae using plants bearing ant attractants such as extrafloral nectaries are good models for studying morphological and behavioural mechanisms against ant predation. Udranomia spitzi (Hesperiidae) is a butterfly whose larvae feed on leaves of Ouratea spectabilis (Ochnaceae), a plant with extrafloral nectaries. We described the early stages of U. spitzi, and used field observations and experiments to investigate the defensive strategies of caterpillars against predatory ants. Larvae pass through five instars and pupation occurs inside larval leaf shelters. Ant-exclusion experiments revealed that the presence of ants did not affect significantly caterpillar survival. Predation experiments showed that vulnerability to ant predation decreased with increase in larval size. The present study showed that predatory ants are not as relevant as demonstrated for other systems, and also illustrates how observational data and field experiments can contribute to a better understanding of the biology and ecology of a species of interest.

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(Vertical distribution of biotic pollination systems in cerrado sensu stricto in the Triangulo Mineiro, MG, Brazil). Several factors can influence the distribution of floral resources and pollination systems in ecosystems, such as climate, altitude, geographic region, fragmentation of natural areas and differences in floristic composition along the vertical stratification. This study aimed to evaluate the distribution of the vertical stratification of biotic pollination systems in cerrado (sensu stricto) fragments in the Triangulo Mineiro. There was no significant difference (chi(2)(0.05,9)=14.17; P = 0.12) in total plant species richness among fragments, nor in the species richness of each layer (trees, shrubs, herbs and lianas) and the shrub layer was the best represented. Likewise, there was no significant difference between fragments for the systems of pollination (chi(2)(0 05,21) =13.80; P = 0.8778). Pollination by bees was the most common, corresponding to 85% of species in each fragment. In relative terms, plants pollinated by bees were dominant in all strata, reaching 100% for the lianas in fragments 1, 3 and 4 and for the herbs in fragments 1 and 4. In this study, based on floristic composition and distribution of biotic pollination systems in the vertical stratification, we could define a vertical mosaic in the cerrado studied, which has implications for the sustainability of communities in the cerrado, as well as the horizontal mosaic of vegetation types.

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Most biological systems are formed by component parts that are to some degree interrelated. Groups of parts that are more associated among themselves and are relatively autonomous from others are called modules. One of the consequences of modularity is that biological systems usually present an unequal distribution of the genetic variation among traits. Estimating the covariance matrix that describes these systems is a difficult problem due to a number of factors such as poor sample sizes and measurement errors. We show that this problem will be exacerbated whenever matrix inversion is required, as in directional selection reconstruction analysis. We explore the consequences of varying degrees of modularity and signal-to-noise ratio on selection reconstruction. We then present and test the efficiency of available methods for controlling noise in matrix estimates. In our simulations, controlling matrices for noise vastly improves the reconstruction of selection gradients. We also perform an analysis of selection gradients reconstruction over a New World Monkeys skull database to illustrate the impact of noise on such analyses. Noise-controlled estimates render far more plausible interpretations that are in full agreement with previous results.

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Rationale and aim: This paper has the object to present the impact of nuts' and seeds' injuries withdrawing data from the Susy Safe registry, highlighting that as for other foreign bodies the main item efficiently and substantially susceptible to changes to decrease the accidents' rates is the education of adults and children, that can be shared with parents both from pediatricians and general practitioners. Indeed labeling and age related warnings have also a fundamental relevance in prevention. Methods: The present study draws its data from the Susy Safe registry. Details on injuries are entered in the Susy Safe Web-registry through a standardized case report form, that includes information regarding: children age and gender, features of the object, circumstances of injury (presence of parents and activity) and hospitalization's details (lasting, complications and removal details). Cases are prospectively collected using the Susy Safe system from 06/2005; moreover, also information regarding past consecutive cases available in each centre adhering to the project have been entered in the Susy Safe registry. Results: Nuts and seeds are one of the most common food item retrieved in foreign bodies injuries in children. In Susy Safe registry they represent the 38% in food group, and almost the 10% in general cases. Trachea, bronchi and lungs were the main location of FB's retrieval, showing an incidence of 68%. Hospitalization occurred in 83% of cases, showing the major frequency for foreign bodies located in trachea. This location was also the principal site of complications, with a frequency of 68%. There were no significant associations between these outcomes and the age class of the children. The most common complications seen (22.4%) was bronchitis, followed by pneumonia (19.7%). Adult presence was recorded as positive in 71.2% of cases, showing an association (p value 0.009) between the adult supervision and the hospitalization outcome. On the contrary there was a non significant association between adult presence and the occurrence of complications. In 80.7% of cases, the incident happened while the child was eating. Among those cases, 88.6% interested trachea, lungs and bronchi. Conclusions: Food-related aspiration injuries are common events for young children, particularly under 4 years of age, and may lead to severe complication. There is a need to study in more depth specific characteristics of foreign bodies associated with increased hazard, such as size, shape, hardness or firmness, lubricity, pliability and elasticity, in order to better identify risky foods, and more precisely described the pathogenetic pathway. Parents are not adequately conscious and aware toward this risk; therefore, the number and severity of the injuries could be reduced by educating parents and children. Information about food safety should be included in all visits to pediatricians in order to make parents able to understand, select, and identify key characteristics of hazardous foods and better control the hazard level of various foods. Finally, preventive measures including warning labels on high-risk foods could be implemented. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Classical Pavlovian fear conditioning to painful stimuli has provided the generally accepted view of a core system centered in the central amygdala to organize fear responses. Ethologically based models using other sources of threat likely to be expected in a natural environment, such as predators or aggressive dominant conspecifics, have challenged this concept of a unitary core circuit for fear processing. We discuss here what the ethologically based models have told us about the neural systems organizing fear responses. We explored the concept that parallel paths process different classes of threats, and that these different paths influence distinct regions in the periaqueductal gray - a critical element for the organization of all kinds of fear responses. Despite this parallel processing of different kinds of threats, we have discussed an interesting emerging view that common cortical-hippocampal-amygdalar paths seem to be engaged in fear conditioning to painful stimuli, to predators and, perhaps, to aggressive dominant conspecifics as well. Overall, the aim of this review is to bring into focus a more global and comprehensive view of the systems organizing fear responses.

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The aim of this work is to study the features of a simple replicator chemical model of the relation between kinetic stability and entropy production under the action of external perturbations. We quantitatively explore the different paths leading to evolution in a toy model where two independent replicators compete for the same substrate. To do that, the same scenario described originally by Pross (J Phys Org Chem 17:312–316, 2004) is revised and new criteria to define the kinetic stability are proposed. Our results suggest that fast replicator populations are continually favored by the effects of strong stochastic environmental fluctuations capable to determine the global population, the former assumed to be the only acting evolution force. We demonstrate that the process is continually driven by strong perturbations only, and that population crashes may be useful proxies for these catastrophic environmental fluctuations. As expected, such behavior is particularly enhanced under very large scale perturbations, suggesting a likely dynamical footprint in the recovery patterns of new species after mass extinction events in the Earth’s geological past. Furthermore, the hypothesis that natural selection always favors the faster processes may give theoretical support to different studies that claim the applicability of maximum principles like the Maximum Metabolic Flux (MMF) or Maximum Entropy Productions Principle (MEPP), seen as the main goal of biological evolution.