7 resultados para Markov Model with Monte-Carlo microsimulations

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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The extension of Boltzmann-Gibbs thermostatistics, proposed by Tsallis, introduces an additional parameter q to the inverse temperature beta. Here, we show that a previously introduced generalized Metropolis dynamics to evolve spin models is not local and does not obey the detailed energy balance. In this dynamics, locality is only retrieved for q = 1, which corresponds to the standard Metropolis algorithm. Nonlocality implies very time-consuming computer calculations, since the energy of the whole system must be reevaluated when a single spin is flipped. To circumvent this costly calculation, we propose a generalized master equation, which gives rise to a local generalized Metropolis dynamics that obeys the detailed energy balance. To compare the different critical values obtained with other generalized dynamics, we perform Monte Carlo simulations in equilibrium for the Ising model. By using short-time nonequilibrium numerical simulations, we also calculate for this model the critical temperature and the static and dynamical critical exponents as functions of q. Even for q not equal 1, we show that suitable time-evolving power laws can be found for each initial condition. Our numerical experiments corroborate the literature results when we use nonlocal dynamics, showing that short-time parameter determination works also in this case. However, the dynamics governed by the new master equation leads to different results for critical temperatures and also the critical exponents affecting universality classes. We further propose a simple algorithm to optimize modeling the time evolution with a power law, considering in a log-log plot two successive refinements.

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A detailed characterization of a X-ray Si(Li) detector was performed to obtain the energy dependence of efficiency in the photon energy range of 6.4 - 59.5 keV. which was measured and reproduced by Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Significant discrepancies between MC and experimental values were found when lhe manufacturer parameters of lhe detector were used in lhe simulation. A complete Computerized Tomagraphy (CT) detector scan allowed to find the correct crystal dimensions and position inside the capsule. The computed efficiencies with the resulting detector model differed with the measured values no more than 10% in most of the energy range.

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Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

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We have performed multicanonical simulations to study the critical behavior of the two-dimensional Ising model with dipole interactions. This study concerns the thermodynamic phase transitions in the range of the interaction delta where the phase characterized by striped configurations of width h = 1 is observed. Controversial results obtained from local update algorithms have been reported for this region, including the claimed existence of a second-order phase transition line that becomes first order above a tricritical point located somewhere between delta = 0.85 and 1. Our analysis relies on the complex partition function zeros obtained with high statistics from multicanonical simulations. Finite size scaling relations for the leading partition function zeros yield critical exponents. that are clearly consistent with a single second-order phase transition line, thus excluding such a tricritical point in that region of the phase diagram. This conclusion is further supported by analysis of the specific heat and susceptibility of the orientational order parameter.

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We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.

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In this work, a Monte Carlo code was used to investigate the performance of different x-ray spectra in digital mammography, through a figure of merit (FOM), defined as FOM = CNR2/(D) over bar (g), with CNR being the contrast-to-noise ratio in image and (D) over bar (g) being the average glandular dose. The FOM was studied for breasts with different thicknesses t (2 cm <= t <= 8 cm) and glandular contents (25%, 50% and 75% glandularity). The anode/filter combinations evaluated were those traditionally employed in mammography (Mo/Mo, Mo/Rh, Rh/Rh), and a W anode combined with Al or K-edge filters (Zr, Mo, Rh, Pd, Ag, Cd, Sn), for tube potentials between 22 and 34 kVp. Results show that the W anode combined with K-edge filters provides higher values of FOM for all breast thicknesses investigated. Nevertheless, the most suitable filter and tube potential depend on the breast thickness, and for t >= 6 cm, they also depend on breast glandularity. Particularly for thick and dense breasts, a W anode combined with K-edge filters can greatly improve the digital technique, with the values of FOM up to 200% greater than that obtained with the anode/filter combinations and tube potentials traditionally employed in mammography. For breasts with t < 4 cm, a general good performance was obtained with the W anode combined with 60 mu m of the Mo filter at 24-25 kVp, while 60 mu m of the Pd filter provided a general good performance at 24-26 kVp for t = 4 cm, and at 28-30 and 29-31 kVp for t = 6 and 8 cm, respectively.

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Using fixed node diffusion quantum Monte Carlo (FN-DMC) simulations and density functional theory (DFT) within the generalized gradient approximations, we calculate the total energies of the relaxed and unrelaxed neutral, cationic, and anionic aluminum clusters, Al-n (n = 1-13). From the obtained total energies, we extract the ionization potential and electron detachment energy and compare with previous theoretical and experimental results. Our results for the electronic properties from both the FN-DMC and DFT calculations are in reasonably good agreement with the available experimental data. A comparison between the FN-DMC and DFT results reveals that their differences are a few tenths of electron volt for both the ionization potential and the electron detachment energy. We also observe two distinct behaviors in the electron correlation contribution to the total energies from smaller to larger clusters, which could be assigned to the structural transition of the clusters from planar to three-dimensional occurring at n = 4 to 5.