Estimation and diagnostics for heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models based on scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

An extension of some standard likelihood based procedures to heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions is developed. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the heteroscedastic symmetrical nonlinear regression models (Cysneiros et al., 2010), since the random term distributions cover both symmetric as well as asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions such as skew-t, skew-slash, skew-contaminated normal, among others. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is presented and the observed information matrix is derived analytically. In order to examine the performance of the proposed methods, some simulation studies are presented to show the robust aspect of this flexible class against outlying and influential observations and that the maximum likelihood estimates based on the EM-type algorithm do provide good asymptotic properties. Furthermore, local influence measures and the one-step approximations of the estimates in the case-deletion model are obtained. Finally, an illustration of the methodology is given considering a data set previously analyzed under the homoscedastic skew-t nonlinear regression model. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The education of the body for an "integral soldier", "physically strong, intelligent and soul superior"

This study examines the paramilitary training carried out by the Integralist Militia (Militia Integralista), unit of the Brazilian Integralist Action (Acao Integralista Brasileira, AIB) of the extreme right wing political party in Brazil in the 1930s. The training was aimed to create the "integral soldier", a "physically strong, intelligent and soul superior" one. The study analyzes issues of the newspaper "Monitor Integralista", a prescriptive and dogmatic journal of the movement, found in the Public and History Archives of the city of Rio Claro, State of Sao Paulo, and in the "A Offensiva" newspaper, microfilmed an archived at the National Library of Rio de Janeiro. It concludes that Plinio Salgado's goal, the National Head of the AIB, was to train, by using verbal persuasion, speeches, word of mouth and by vote, by force and physical combat, the integralists to defend the causes of the movement.

New approach for power transformer protection based on intelligent hybrid systems

A power transformer needs continuous monitoring and fast protection as it is a very expensive piece of equipment and an essential element in an electrical power system. The most common protection technique used is the percentage differential logic, which provides discrimination between an internal fault and different operating conditions. Unfortunately, there are some operating conditions of power transformers that can mislead the conventional protection affecting the power system stability negatively. This study proposes the development of a new algorithm to improve the protection performance by using fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms. An electrical power system was modelled using Alternative Transients Program software to obtain the operational conditions and fault situations needed to test the algorithm developed, as well as a commercial differential relay. Results show improved reliability, as well as a fast response of the proposed technique when compared with conventional ones.

Modeling of active holonic control systems for intelligent buildings

Building facilities have become important infrastructures for modern productive plants dedicated to services. In this context, the control systems of intelligent buildings have evolved while their reliability has evidently improved. However, the occurrence of faults is inevitable in systems conceived, constructed and operated by humans. Thus, a practical alternative approach is found to be very useful to reduce the consequences of faults. Yet, only few publications address intelligent building modeling processes that take into consideration the occurrence of faults and how to manage their consequences. In the light of the foregoing, a procedure is proposed for the modeling of intelligent building control systems, considersing their functional specifications in normal operation and in the of the event of faults. The proposed procedure adopts the concepts of discrete event systems and holons, and explores Petri nets and their extensions so as to represent the structure and operation of control systems for intelligent buildings under normal and abnormal situations. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence diagnostics in heteroscedastic and/or autoregressive nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data

In this paper, we propose nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data with heteroscedastic and/or autoregressive structures. Our aim is to extend the models proposed by Russo et al. [22] by considering a more sophisticated scale structure to deal with variations in data dispersion and/or a possible autocorrelation among measurements taken throughout the same experimental unit. Moreover, to avoid the possible influence of outlying observations or to take into account the non-normal symmetric tails of the data, we assume elliptical contours for the joint distribution of random effects and errors, which allows us to attribute different weights to the observations. We propose an iterative algorithm to obtain the maximum-likelihood estimates for the parameters and derive the local influence curvatures for some specific perturbation schemes. The motivation for this work comes from a pharmacokinetic indomethacin data set, which was analysed previously by Bocheng and Xuping [1] under normality.

Influence diagnostics in Gaussian spatial linear models

Spatial linear models have been applied in numerous fields such as agriculture, geoscience and environmental sciences, among many others. Spatial dependence structure modelling, using a geostatistical approach, is an indispensable tool to estimate the parameters that define this structure. However, this estimation may be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations in the sampled data. The purpose of this paper is to use diagnostic techniques to assess the sensitivity of the maximum-likelihood estimators, covariance functions and linear predictor to small perturbations in the data and/or the spatial linear model assumptions. The methodology is illustrated with two real data sets. The results allowed us to conclude that the presence of atypical values in the sample data have a strong influence on thematic maps, changing the spatial dependence structure.

Comparison of fast-track diagnostics respiratory pathogens multiplex real-time RT-PCR assay with in-house singleplex assays for comprehensive detection of human respiratory viruses

Fast-track Diagnostics respiratory pathogens (FTDRP) multiplex real-time RT-PCR assay was compared with in-house singleplex real-time RT-PCR assays for detection of 16 common respiratory viruses. The FTDRP assay correctly identified 26 diverse respiratory virus strains, 35 of 41 (85%) external quality assessment samples spiked with cultured virus and 232 of 263 (88%) archived respiratory specimens that tested positive for respiratory viruses by in-house assays. Of 308 prospectively tested respiratory specimens selected from children hospitalized with acute respiratory illness, 270 (87.7%) and 265 (86%) were positive by FTDRP and in-house assays for one or more viruses, respectively, with combined test results showing good concordance (K=0.812, 95% CI = 0.786-0.838). Individual FTDRP assays for adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus and rhinovirus showed the lowest comparative sensitivities with in-house assays, with most discrepancies occurring with specimens containing low virus loads and failed to detect some rhinovirus strains, even when abundant. The FTDRP enterovirus and human bocavirus assays appeared to be more sensitive than the in-house assays with some specimens. With the exceptions noted above, most FTDRP assays performed comparably with in-house assays for most viruses while offering enhanced throughput and easy integration by laboratories using conventional real-time PCR instrumentation. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Influence diagnostics for elliptical semiparametric mixed models

In this paper we extend semiparametric mixed linear models with normal errors to elliptical errors in order to permit distributions with heavier and lighter tails than the normal ones. Penalized likelihood equations are applied to derive the maximum penalized likelihood estimates (MPLEs) which appear to be robust against outlying observations in the sense of the Mahalanobis distance. A reweighed iterative process based on the back-fitting method is proposed for the parameter estimation and the local influence curvatures are derived under some usual perturbation schemes to study the sensitivity of the MPLEs. Two motivating examples preliminarily analyzed under normal errors are reanalyzed considering some appropriate elliptical errors. The local influence approach is used to compare the sensitivity of the model estimates.

Head & neck optical diagnostics: vision of the future of surgery

Review paper and Proceedings of the Inaugural Meeting of the Head and Neck Optical Diagnostics Society (HNODS) on March 14th 2009 at University College London.

The future of medical diagnostics: review paper

While histopathology of excised tissue remains the gold standard for diagnosis, several new, non-invasive diagnostic techniques are being developed. They rely on physical and biochemical changes that precede and mirror malignant change within tissue. The basic principle involves simple optical techniques of tissue interrogation. Their accuracy, expressed as sensitivity and specificity, are reported in a number of studies suggests that they have a potential for cost effective, real-time, in situ diagnosis.

Intelligent tutoring system for distance education

This study aims to develop and implement a tool called intelligent tutoring system in an online course to help a formative evaluation in order to improve student learning. According to Bloom et al. (1971,117) formative evaluation is a systematic evaluation to improve the process of teaching and learning. The intelligent tutoring system may provide a timely and high quality feedback that not only informs the correctness of the solution to the problem, but also informs students about the accuracy of the response relative to their current knowledge about the solution. Constructive and supportive feedback should be given to students to reveal the right and wrong answers immediately after taking the test. Feedback about the right answers is a form to reinforce positive behaviors. Identifying possible errors and relating them to the instructional material may help student to strengthen the content under consideration. The remedial suggestion should be given in each answer with detaileddescription with regards the materials and instructional procedures before taking next step. The main idea is to inform students about what they have learned and what they still have to learn. The open-source LMS called Moodle was extended to accomplish the formative evaluation, high-quality feedback, and the communal knowledge presented here with a short online financial math course that is being offered at a large University in Brazil. The preliminary results shows that the intelligent tutoring system using high quality feedback helped students to improve their knowledge about the solution to the problems based on the errors of their past cohorts. The results and suggestion for future work are presented and discussed.

Recent trends in intelligent data analysis

European Regional Development Fund