Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE TO VERIFY DIAGNOSTIC ACCURACY

This article describes the development and evaluation of software that verifies the accuracy of diagnoses made by nursing students. The software was based on a model that uses fuzzy logic concepts, including PERL, the MySQL database for Internet accessibility, and the NANDA-I 2007-2008 classification system. The software was evaluated in terms of its technical quality and usability through specific instruments. The activity proposed in the software involves four stages in which students establish the relationship values between nursing diagnoses, defining characteristics/risk factors and clinical cases. The relationship values determined by students are compared to those of specialists, generating performance scores for the students. In the evaluation, the software demonstrated satisfactory outcomes regarding the technical quality and, according to the students, helped in their learning and may become an educational tool to teach the process of nursing diagnosis.

In-Flight Collision Avoidance Controller Based Only on OS4 Embedded Sensors

The major goal of this research was the development and implementation of a control system able to avoid collisions during the flight for a mini-quadrotor helicopter, based only on its embedded sensors without changing the environment. However, it is important to highlight that the design aspects must be seriously considered in order to overcome hardware limitations and achieve control simplification. The controllers of a UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) robot deal with highly unstable dynamics and strong axes coupling. Furthermore, any additional embedded sensor increases the robot total weight and therefore, decreases its operating time. The best balance between embedded electronics and robot operating time is desired. This paper focuses not only on the development and implementation of a collision avoidance controller for a mini-robotic helicopter using only its embedded sensors, but also on the mathematical model that was essential for the controller developing phases. Based on this model we carried out the development of a simulation tool based on MatLab/Simulink that was fundamental for setting the controllers' parameters. This tool allowed us to simulate and improve the OS4 controllers in different modeled environments and test different approaches. After that, the controllers were embedded in the real robot and the results proved to be very robust and feasible. In addition to this, the controller has the advantage of being compatible with future path planners that we are developing.

Inflammatory events during murine squamous cell carcinoma development

Background: Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is one of the most common human cancers worldwide. In SCC, tumour development is accompanied by an immune response that leads to massive tumour infiltration by inflammatory cells, and consequently, local and systemic production of cytokines, chemokines and other mediators. Studies in both humans and animal models indicate that imbalances in these inflammatory mediators are associated with cancer development. Methods: We used a multistage model of SCC to examine the involvement of elastase (ELA), myeloperoxidase (MPO), nitric oxide (NO), cytokines (IL-6, IL-10, IL-13, IL-17, TGF-β and TNF-α), and neutrophils and macrophages in tumour development. ELA and MPO activity and NO, IL-10, IL −17, TNF-α and TGF-β levels were increased in the precancerous microenvironment. Results: ELA and MPO activity and NO, IL-10, IL −17, TNF-α and TGF-β levels were increased in the precancerous microenvironment. Significantly higher levels of IL-6 and lower levels of IL-10 were detected at 4 weeks following 7,12-Dimethylbenz(a)anthracene (DMBA) treatment. Similar levels of IL-13 were detected in the precancerous microenvironment compared with control tissue. We identified significant increases in the number of GR-1+ neutrophils and F4/80+/GR-1- infiltrating cells in tissues at 4 and 8 weeks following treatment and a higher percentage of tumour-associated macrophages (TAM) expressing both GR-1 and F4/80, an activated phenotype, at 16 weeks. We found a significant correlation between levels of IL-10, IL-17, ELA, and activated TAMs and the lesions. Additionally, neutrophil infiltrate was positively correlated with MPO and NO levels in the lesions. Conclusion: Our results indicate an imbalance of inflammatory mediators in precancerous SCC caused by neutrophils and macrophages and culminating in pro-tumour local tissue alterations.

Prevalence of asthma and risk factors associated: population based study in Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, 2008-2009

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of asthma and risk factors associated in children and adolescents. METHODS: Population-based cross-sectional study with 1,185 female and male children and adolescents carried out in the city of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from 2008 to 2009. Data were collected through home interviews. Respondents were selected from two-stage (census tract, household) cluster random sampling stratified by gender and age. Multiple Poisson regression was used in the adjusted analysis between the outcome and socioeconomic, demographic, lifestyle and health condition variables. RESULTS: Of all respondents, 9.1% (95%CI 7.0; 11.7) reported asthma. After adjustment, the following variables were found independently associated with asthma: age (0 to 4 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 3.18, 95%CI 1.20;8.42); age (5 to 9 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 6.37, 95%CI 2.64;15.39); age (10 to 14 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 4.51,95%CI 1.95;10.40); allergy (yes vs. no) (PR 2.22, 95%CI 1.24;4.00); rhinitis (yes vs. no) (PR 2.13, 95%CI 1.22;3.73); health conditions in the 15 days preceding the interview (yes vs. no) (PR 1.96, 95%CI 1.23;3.11); number of rooms in the household (1 to 3 vs. 4 and more) (PR 1.67, 95%CI 1.05;2.66); and skin color (black and mixed vs. white) (PR 2.00, 95%CI 1.14;3.49). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the importance of factors associated with asthma including rhinitis and allergy; age between 5 to 9 years old; black and mixed skin color; and household with few rooms. Frequent health problems are seen as a common consequence of asthma.

Effects of arterial oxygen tension and cardiac output on venous saturation: a mathematical modeling approach

OBJECTIVES: Hemodynamic support is aimed at providing adequate O-2 delivery to the tissues; most interventions target O-2 delivery increase. Mixed venous O-2 saturation is a frequently used parameter to evaluate the adequacy of O-2 delivery. METHODS: We describe a mathematical model to compare the effects of increasing O-2 delivery on venous oxygen saturation through increases in the inspired O-2 fraction versus increases in cardiac output. The model was created based on the lungs, which were divided into shunted and non-shunted areas, and on seven peripheral compartments, each with normal values of perfusion, optimal oxygen consumption, and critical O-2 extraction rate. O-2 delivery was increased by changing the inspired fraction of oxygen from 0.21 to 1.0 in steps of 0.1 under conditions of low (2.0 L.min(-1)) or normal (6.5 L.min(-1)) cardiac output. The same O-2 delivery values were also obtained by maintaining a fixed O-2 inspired fraction value of 0.21 while changing cardiac output. RESULTS: Venous oxygen saturation was higher when produced through increases in inspired O-2 fraction versus increases in cardiac output, even at the same O-2 delivery and consumption values. Specifically, at high inspired O-2 fractions, the measured O-2 saturation values failed to detect conditions of low oxygen supply. CONCLUSIONS: The mode of O-2 delivery optimization, specifically increases in the fraction of inspired oxygen versus increases in cardiac output, can compromise the capability of the "venous O-2 saturation" parameter to measure the adequacy of oxygen supply. Consequently, venous saturation at high inspired O-2 fractions should be interpreted with caution.

WHAT THE STUDIES CONDUCTED IN BRAZIL REGARDING DIVIDEND POLICY REVEAL

This paper consists of a review of the literature about dividend policy in Brazil, focusing on the empirical studies conducted from 1990 to 2010 that were published in major Brazilian administration, accounting and finance journals and major conference proceedings on this subject. The analyzed sample comprised 39 studies using various methods and conducted in various periods. Based on the model of Harris and Raviv (1991), this paper grouped studies according to model type, and it found five main categories. We were able to find some tendencies, such as: dividend policy relevance in the Brazilian market; confirmation of existence of agency problems; conflicting findings regarding the clientele hypothesis; tax signaling in, and tax impact on, defining dividend policy; non-conflicting findings regarding key factors of dividend policy..

Food-Retail Development and the Myth of Everyday Low Prices: The Case of Brazil

This article analyses the changes in Brazilian food retailing by investigating the co-existence of, and the pricing variation across, large supermarket chains and small independent supermarkets. It uses cointegration tests to show that, despite the widespread belief that small supermarkets are inefficient and charge higher prices, they in fact charge lower prices. Accordingly, in contrast to the prevailing literature on food-retail development, competition in food retail is complex and cannot be described as a simple Darwinian process of market concentration. The article explores the survival of small retail and its consequences for the current discussion on modern food retail in developing countries.

Cost-effectiveness of introducing the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine into the universal immunisation of infants in Brazil

Background Cost-effectiveness studies have been increasingly part of decision processes for incorporating new vaccines into the Brazilian National Immunisation Program. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) in the universal childhood immunisation programme in Brazil. Methods A decision-tree analytical model based on the ProVac Initiative pneumococcus model was used, following 25 successive cohorts from birth until 5 years of age. Two strategies were compared: (1) status quo and (2) universal childhood immunisation programme with PCV10. Epidemiological and cost estimates for pneumococcal disease were based on National Health Information Systems and literature. A 'top-down' costing approach was employed. Costs are reported in 2004 Brazilian reals. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. Results 25 years after implementing the PCV10 immunisation programme, 10 226 deaths, 360 657 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), 433 808 hospitalisations and 5 117 109 outpatient visits would be avoided. The cost of the immunisation programme would be R$10 674 478 765, and the expected savings on direct medical costs and family costs would be R$1 036 958 639 and R$209 919 404, respectively. This resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of R$778 145/death avoided and R$22 066/DALY avoided from the society perspective. Conclusion The PCV10 universal infant immunisation programme is a cost-effective intervention (1-3 GDP per capita/DALY avoided). Owing to the uncertain burden of disease data, as well as unclear long-term vaccine effects, surveillance systems to monitor the long-term effects of this programme will be essential.

Recombinant DNA immunotherapy ameliorate established airway allergy in a IL-10 dependent pathway

Background Previous studies have established that mycobacterial infections ameliorate allergic inflammation. However, a non-infectious approach that controls allergic responses might represent a safer and more promising strategy. The 60-65 kDa heat shock protein (Hsp) family is endowed with anti-inflammatory properties, but it is still unclear whether and how single mycobacterial Hsp control allergic disorders. Objective Therefore, in this study we determined whether the administration of Mycobacterial leprae Hsp65 expressed by recombinant a DNA plasmid could attenuate a previously established allergic response. Methods We used an experimental model of airway allergic inflammation to test the effects of immunotherapy with DNA encoding Hsp65. Allergic mice, previously sensitized and challenged with ovalbumin, were treated with tree intramuscular doses of recombinant DNA encoding Hsp65. After treatment, mice received a second allergen challenge and the allergic response was measured. Results We found that immunotherapy attenuated eosinophilia, pulmonary inflammation, Th2 cytokine and mucus production. Moreover, we showed that the inhibition of allergic response is dependent on IL-10 production. Both Hsp65 and allergen-specific IL-10-producing cells contributed to this effect. Cells transferred from DNA-immunized mice to allergic mice migrated to allergic sites and down-modulated the Th2 response. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance Our findings clearly show that immunotherapy with DNA encoding Hsp65 can attenuate an established Th2 allergic inflammation through an IL-10-dependent mechanism; moreover, the migration of allergen-and Hsp65-specific cells to the allergic sites exerts a fundamental role. This work represents a novel contribution to the understanding of immune regulation by Hsp65 in allergic diseases.

Modified crop model estimation of depleted and potential soybean yield

Despite the great importance of soybeans in Brazil, there have been few applications of soybean crop modeling on Brazilian conditions. Thus, the objective of this study was to use modified crop models to estimate the depleted and potential soybean crop yield in Brazil. The climatic variable data used in the modified simulation of the soybean crop models were temperature, insolation and rainfall. The data set was taken from 33 counties (28 Sao Paulo state counties, and 5 counties from other states that neighbor São Paulo). Among the models, modifications in the estimation of the leaf area of the soybean crop, which includes corrections for the temperature, shading, senescence, CO2, and biomass partition were proposed; also, the methods of input for the model's simulation of the climatic variables were reconsidered. The depleted yields were estimated through a water balance, from which the depletion coefficient was estimated. It can be concluded that the adaptation soybean growth crop model might be used to predict the results of the depleted and potential yield of soybeans, and it can also be used to indicate better locations and periods of tillage.