8 resultados para Exponential smoothing

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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The Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COMP) distribution as an extension of the Poisson distribution is a popular model for analyzing counting data. For the first time, we introduce a new three parameter distribution, so-called the exponential-Conway-Maxwell Poisson (ECOMP) distribution, that contains as sub-models the exponential-geometric and exponential-Poisson distributions proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (Stat Probab Lett 39:35-42, 1998) and KuAY (Comput Stat Data Anal 51:4497-4509, 2007), respectively. The new density function can be expressed as a mixture of exponential density functions. Expansions for moments, moment generating function and some statistical measures are provided. The density function of the order statistics can also be expressed as a mixture of exponential densities. We derive two formulae for the moments of order statistics. The elements of the observed information matrix are provided. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the new distribution to analyze positive data.

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In this paper, a new family of survival distributions is presented. It is derived by considering that the latent number of failure causes follows a Poisson distribution and the time for these causes to be activated follows an exponential distribution. Three different activation schemes are also considered. Moreover, we propose the inclusion of covariates in the model formulation in order to study their effect on the expected value of the number of causes and on the failure rate function. Inferential procedure based on the maximum likelihood method is discussed and evaluated via simulation. The developed methodology is illustrated on a real data set on ovarian cancer.

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In this work we study the effect reduction in the density of dangling bond species D-0 states in rare-earth (RE) doped a-Si films as a function concentration for different RE-specimens. The films a-Si-1_(x) REx, RE=Y3+, Gd3+, Er3+, Lu3+) were prepared by co-sputtering and investigated by electron spin resonance (ESR) and Raman scattering experiments. According to our data the RE-doping reduces the ESR signal intensity of the D-0 states with an exponential dependence on the rare-concentration. Furthermore, the reduction produced by the magnetic rare-earths Gd3+ and Er3+ is remarkably greater than that caused by Y3+ and Lu3+, which led us to suggest an exchange-like coupling between the spin of the magnetic REs3+ and the spin of silicon neutral dangling bonds. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The fatigue crack behavior in metals and alloys under constant amplitude test conditions is usually described by relationships between the crack growth rate da/dN and the stress intensity factor range Delta K. In the present work, an enhanced two-parameter exponential equation of fatigue crack growth was introduced in order to describe sub-critical crack propagation behavior of Al 2524-T3 alloy, commonly used in aircraft engineering applications. It was demonstrated that besides adequately correlating the load ratio effects, the exponential model also accounts for the slight deviations from linearity shown by the experimental curves. A comparison with Elber, Kujawski and "Unified Approach" models allowed for verifying the better performance, when confronted to the other tested models, presented by the exponential model. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We consider the problem of estimating the mean and variance of the time between occurrences of an event of interest (inter-occurrences times) where some forms of dependence between two consecutive time intervals are allowed. Two basic density functions are taken into account. They are the Weibull and the generalised exponential density functions. In order to capture the dependence between two consecutive inter-occurrences times, we assume that either the shape and/or the scale parameters of the two density functions are given by auto-regressive models. The expressions for the mean and variance of the inter-occurrences times are presented. The models are applied to the ozone data from two regions of Mexico City. The estimation of the parameters is performed using a Bayesian point of view via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

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In this paper, we establish the existence of many rotationally non-equivalent and nonradial solutions for the following class of quasilinear problems (p) {-Delta(N)u = lambda f(vertical bar x vertical bar, u) x is an element of Omega(r), u > 0 x is an element of Omega(r), u = 0 x is an element of Omega(r), where Omega(r) = {x is an element of R-N : r < vertical bar x vertical bar < r + 1}, N >= 2, N not equal 3, r >0, lambda > 0, Delta(N)u = div(vertical bar del u vertical bar(N-2)del u) is the N-Laplacian operator and f is a continuous function with exponential critical growth.

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This paper is concerned with the energy decay for a class of plate equations with memory and lower order perturbation of p-Laplacian type, utt+?2u-?pu+?0tg(t-s)?u(s)ds-?ut+f(u)=0inOXR+, with simply supported boundary condition, where O is a bounded domain of RN, g?>?0 is a memory kernel that decays exponentially and f(u) is a nonlinear perturbation. This kind of problem without the memory term models elastoplastic flows.

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This article is a continuation of our previous work [5], where we formulated general existence theorems for pullback exponential attractors for asymptotically compact evolution processes in Banach spaces and discussed its implications in the autonomous case. We now study properties of the attractors and use our theoretical results to prove the existence of pullback exponential attractors in two examples, where previous results do not apply.