On estimating the basic reproduction number in distinct stages of a contagious disease spreading

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number R-0 is usually defined as the average number of new infections caused by a single infective individual introduced into a completely susceptible population. According to this definition. R-0 is related to the initial stage of the spreading of a contagious disease. However, from epidemiological models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE), R-0 is commonly derived from a linear stability analysis and interpreted as a bifurcation parameter: typically, when R-0 >1, the contagious disease tends to persist in the population because the endemic stationary solution is asymptotically stable: when R-0 <1, the corresponding pathogen tends to naturally disappear because the disease-free stationary solution is asymptotically stable. Here we intend to answer the following question: Do these two different approaches for calculating R-0 give the same numerical values? In other words, is the number of secondary infections caused by a unique sick individual equal to the threshold obtained from stability analysis of steady states of ODE? For finding the answer, we use a susceptibleinfective-recovered (SIR) model described in terms of ODE and also in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. The values of R-0 obtained from both approaches are compared, showing good agreement. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ESTIMATING REACTION CONSTANTS BY AB INITIO MOLECULAR MODELING: A STUDY ON THE OXIDATION OF PHENOL TO CATECHOL AND HYDROQUINONE IN ADVANCED OXIDATION PROCESSES

Molecular modeling is growing as a research tool in Chemical Engineering studies, as can be seen by a simple research on the latest publications in the field. Molecular investigations retrieve information on properties often accessible only by expensive and time-consuming experimental techniques, such as those involved in the study of radical-based chain reactions. In this work, different quantum chemical techniques were used to study phenol oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in Advanced Oxidation Processes used for wastewater treatment. The results obtained by applying a DFT-based model showed good agreement with experimental values available, as well as qualitative insights into the mechanism of the overall reaction chain. Solvation models were also tried, but were found to be limited for this reaction system within the considered theoretical level without further parameterization.

Validation of a FFQ for estimating omega-3, omega-6 and trans fatty acid intake during pregnancy using mature breast milk and food recalls

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) for estimating omega-3, omega-6 and trans fatty acid intake during pregnancy. Moreover, we determined whether the fatty acid composition of mature breast milk represents a valuable biomarker for fatty acid intake during pregnancy. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A prospective study in 41 pregnant women, aged 18-35 years, was conducted. Food intake during pregnancy was evaluated by three 24-h recalls (24 hR), and 2 FFQ. The fatty acid composition of mature breast milk was determined by gas chromatography. The method of triads and joint classification between quartiles of intake were applied. RESULTS: The FFQ was accurate for estimating docosahexanoic (DHA), linoleic and total omega-6 fatty acids according to validity coefficients. Higher agreements (>70%) into the same or adjacent quartiles between the dietary methods were found for alpha-linolenic, total omega-3, linoleic and trans fatty acid intake. High validity coefficients for eicosapentanoic (EPA) and DHA acids of human milk were found (0.61 and 0.73, respectively), and the method was adequate for categorizing the intake of alpha-linolenic, total omega-3 and trans fatty acids compared with FFQ estimates, and for arachidonic acid and trans fatty acids compared with food recall estimates, during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: The FFQ was an accurate tool for categorizing alpha-linolenic, total omega-3 and trans fatty acid intake. According to the validity coefficients observed, the FFQ accurately estimated DHA, linoleic and total omega-6 fatty acids and the composition of mature breast milk was shown to be a suitable biomarker for EPA and DHA fatty acid intake during pregnancy.

Estimating total body fat using a skinfold prediction equation in Brazilian children

Background: The double burden of obesity and underweight is increasing in developing countries and simple methods for the assessment of fat mass in children are needed. Aim: To develop and validate a new anthropometric predication equation for assessment of fat mass in children. Subjects and methods: Body composition was assessed in 145 children aged 9.8 +/- 1.3 (SD) years from Sao Paulo, Brazil using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) and skinfold measurements. The study sample was divided into development and validation sub-sets to develop a new prediction equation for FM (PE). Results: Using multiple linear regression analyses, the best equation for predicting FM (R-2 - 0.77) included body weight, triceps skinfold, height, gender and age as independent variables. When cross-validated, the new PE was valid in this sample (R-2 = 0.80), while previously published equations were not. Conclusion: The PE was more valid for Brazilian children that existing equations, but further studies are needed to assess the validity of this PE in other populations.

Perfomance of methods for estimating reference evapotranspiration in the municipalities of Frederico Westphalen and Palmeira das Missoes, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

The estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETo), used in water balance, allows to determine soil water content, assisting on irrigation management. The present study aimed to compare simple ETo estimating methods with the Penman-Monteith (FAO), in the folowing time scales: daily, 5, 10, 15 and 30 days and monthly in the counties of Frederico Westphalen and Palmeira das Missoes, in the Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. The methods tested had their efficiency improved by increasing the time scale of analysis, keeping the same performance for both locations. The highest and lowest ETo values occurred in December and June, respectively. Most methods underestimated ETo. For any of the time scales Makking and Radiaton FAO24 methods can replace the Penman-Monteith for estimating ETo.

A theoretical model for estimating the margination constant of leukocytes

Abstract Background Blood leukocytes constitute two interchangeable sub-populations, the marginated and circulating pools. These two sub-compartments are found in normal conditions and are potentially affected by non-normal situations, either pathological or physiological. The dynamics between the compartments is governed by rate constants of margination (M) and return to circulation (R). Therefore, estimates of M and R may prove of great importance to a deeper understanding of many conditions. However, there has been a lack of formalism in order to approach such estimates. The few attempts to furnish an estimation of M and R neither rely on clearly stated models that precisely say which rate constant is under estimation nor recognize which factors may influence the estimation. Results The returning of the blood pools to a steady-state value after a perturbation (e.g., epinephrine injection) was modeled by a second-order differential equation. This equation has two eigenvalues, related to a fast- and to a slow-component of the dynamics. The model makes it possible to identify that these components are partitioned into three constants: R, M and SB; where SB is a time-invariant exit to tissues rate constant. Three examples of the computations are worked and a tentative estimation of R for mouse monocytes is presented. Conclusions This study establishes a firm theoretical basis for the estimation of the rate constants of the dynamics between the blood sub-compartments of white cells. It shows, for the first time, that the estimation must also take into account the exit to tissues rate constant, SB.

Estimating subsoil resistance to nitrate leaching from easily measurable pedological properties

Leaching of nitrate (NO3-) can increase the groundwater concentration of this anion and reduce the agronomical effectiveness of nitrogen fertilizers. The main soil property inversely related to NO3- leaching is the anion exchange capacity (AEC), whose determination is however too time-consuming for being carried out in soil testing laboratories. For this reason, this study evaluated if more easily measurable soil properties could be used to estimate the resistance of subsoils to NO3- leaching. Samples from the subsurface layer (20-40 cm) of 24 representative soils of São Paulo State were characterized for particle-size distribution and for chemical and electrochemical properties. The subsoil content of adsorbed NO3- was calculated from the difference between the NO3- contents extracted with 1 mol L-1 KCl and with water; furthermore, NO3- leaching was studied in miscible displacement experiments. The results of both adsorption and leaching experiments were consistent with the well-known role exerted by AEC on the nitrate behavior in weathered soils. Multiple regression analysis indicated that in subsoils with (i) low values of remaining phosphorus (Prem), (ii) low soil pH values measured in water (pH H2O), and (iii) high pH values measured in 1 moL L-1 KCl (pH KCl), the amounts of surface positive charges tend to be greater. For this reason, NO3- leaching tends to be slower in these subsoils, even under saturated flow condition.

Estimating reaction constants by ab initio molecular modeling: a study on the oxidation of phenol to catechol and hydroquinone in advanced oxidation processes

Molecular modeling is growing as a research tool in Chemical Engineering studies, as can be seen by a simple research on the latest publications in the field. Molecular investigations retrieve information on properties often accessible only by expensive and time-consuming experimental techniques, such as those involved in the study of radical-based chain reactions. In this work, different quantum chemical techniques were used to study phenol oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in Advanced Oxidation Processes used for wastewater treatment. The results obtained by applying a DFT-based model showed good agreement with experimental values available, as well as qualitative insights into the mechanism of the overall reaction chain. Solvation models were also tried, but were found to be limited for this reaction system within the considered theoretical level without further parameterization.

Validation of models for predicting milk urea nitrogen concentrations, estimating dry matter intake by the NRC (2001)

The objective of this study was to validate three different models for predicting milk urea nitrogen using field conditions, attempting to evaluate the nutritional adequacy diets for dairy cows and prediction of nitrogen excreted to the environment. Observations (4,749) from 855 cows were used. Milk yield, body weight (BW), days in milk and parity were recorded on the milk sampling days. Milk was sampled monthly, for analysis of milk urea nitrogen (MUN), fat, protein, lactose and total solids concentration and somatic cells count. Individual dry matter intake was estimated using the NRC (2001). The three models studied were derived from a first one to predict urinary nitrogen (UN). Model 1 was MUN = UN/12.54, model 2 was MUN = UN/17.6 and model 3 was MUN = UN/(0.0259 × BW), adjusted by body weight effect. To evaluate models, they were tested for accuracy, precision and robustness. Despite being more accurate (mean bias = 0.94 mg/dL), model 2 was less precise (residual error = 4.50 mg/dL) than model 3 (mean bias = 1.41 and residual error = 4.11 mg/dL), while model 1 was the least accurate (mean bias = 6.94 mg/dL) and the least precise (residual error = 5.40 mg/dL). They were not robust, because they were influenced by almost all the variables studied. The three models for predicting milk urea nitrogen were different with respect to accuracy, precision and robustness.