Influence Assessment in an Heteroscedastic Errors-in-Variables Model

The main goal of this article is to consider influence assessment in models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. The techniques enable to identify potential influential elements and also to quantify the effects of perturbations in these elements on some results of interest. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease.

Experimental Investigation of the Hydrodynamic Coefficients of a Remotely Operated Vehicle Using a Planar Motion Mechanism

The determination of hydrodynamic coefficients of full scale underwater vehicles using system identification (SI) is an extremely powerful technique. The procedure is based on experimental runs and on the analysis of on-board sensors and thrusters signals. The technique is cost effective and it has high repeatability; however, for open-frame underwater vehicles, it lacks accuracy due to the sensors' noise and the poor modeling of thruster-hull and thruster-thruster interaction effects. In this work, forced oscillation tests were undertaken with a full scale open-frame underwater vehicle. These conducted tests are unique in the sense that there are not many examples in the literature taking advantage of a PMM installation for testing a prototype and; consequently, allowing the comparison between the experimental results and the ones estimated by parameter identification. The Morison's equation inertia and drag coefficients were estimated with two parameter identification methods, that is, the weighted and the ordinary least-squares procedures. It was verified that the in-line force estimated from Morison's equation agrees well with the measured one except in the region around the motion inversion points. On the other hand, the error analysis showed that the ordinary least-squares provided better accuracy and, therefore, was used to evaluate the ratio between inertia and drag forces for a range of Keulegan-Carpenter and Reynolds numbers. It was concluded that, although both experimental and estimation techniques proved to be powerful tools for evaluation of an open-frame underwater vehicle's hydrodynamic coefficients, the research provided a rich amount of reference data for comparison with reduced models as well as for dynamic motion simulation of ROVs. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4004952]

Constraining H-0 in general dark energy models from Sunyaev-Zeldovich/X-ray technique and complementary probes

In accelerating dark energy models, the estimates of the Hubble constant, Ho, from Sunyaev-Zerdovich effect (SZE) and X-ray surface brightness of galaxy clusters may depend on the matter content (Omega(M)), the curvature (Omega(K)) and the equation of state parameter GO. In this article, by using a sample of 25 angular diameter distances of galaxy clusters described by the elliptical beta model obtained through the SZE/X-ray technique, we constrain Ho in the framework of a general ACDM model (arbitrary curvature) and a flat XCDM model with a constant equation of state parameter omega = p(x)/rho(x). In order to avoid the use of priors in the cosmological parameters, we apply a joint analysis involving the baryon acoustic oscillations (BA()) and the (MB Shift Parameter signature. By taking into account the statistical and systematic errors of the SZE/X-ray technique we obtain for nonflat ACDM model H-0 = 74(-4.0)(+5.0) km s(-1) Mpc(-1) (1 sigma) whereas for a fiat universe with constant equation of state parameter we find H-0 = 72(-4.0)(+5.5) km s(-1) Mpc(-1)(1 sigma). By assuming that galaxy clusters are described by a spherical beta model these results change to H-0 = 6(-7.0)(+8.0) and H-0 = 59(-6.0)(+9.0) km s(-1) Mpc(-1)(1 sigma), respectively. The results from elliptical description are in good agreement with independent studies from the Hubble Space Telescope key project and recent estimates based on the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe, thereby suggesting that the combination of these three independent phenomena provides an interesting method to constrain the Bubble constant. As an extra bonus, the adoption of the elliptical description is revealed to be a quite realistic assumption. Finally, by comparing these results with a recent determination for a, flat ACDM model using only the SZE/X-ray technique and BAO, we see that the geometry has a very weak influence on H-0 estimates for this combination of data.

Computational tools for comparing asymmetric GARCH models via Bayes factors

In this paper we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in order to estimate and compare GARCH models from a Bayesian perspective. We allow for possibly heavy tailed and asymmetric distributions in the error term. We use a general method proposed in the literature to introduce skewness into a continuous unimodal and symmetric distribution. For each model we compute an approximation to the marginal likelihood, based on the MCMC output. From these approximations we compute Bayes factors and posterior model probabilities. (C) 2012 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Error Autocorrelation and Linear Regression for Temperature-Based Evapotranspiration Estimates Improvement

Estimates of evapotranspiration on a local scale is important information for agricultural and hydrological practices. However, equations to estimate potential evapotranspiration based only on temperature data, which are simple to use, are usually less trustworthy than the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)Penman-Monteith standard method. The present work describes two correction procedures for potential evapotranspiration estimates by temperature, making the results more reliable. Initially, the standard FAO-Penman-Monteith method was evaluated with a complete climatologic data set for the period between 2002 and 2006. Then temperature-based estimates by Camargo and Jensen-Haise methods have been adjusted by error autocorrelation evaluated in biweekly and monthly periods. In a second adjustment, simple linear regression was applied. The adjusted equations have been validated with climatic data available for the Year 2001. Both proposed methodologies showed good agreement with the standard method indicating that the methodology can be used for local potential evapotranspiration estimates.

Constitutive models for biodegradable thermoplastic ropes for ligament repair

The concept behind a biodegradable ligament device is to temporarily replace the biomechanical functions of the ruptured ligament, while it progressively regenerates its capacities. However, there is a lack of methods to predict the mechanical behaviour evolution of the biodegradable devices during degradation, which is an important aspect of the project. In this work, a hyper elastic constitutive model will be used to predict the mechanical behaviour of a biodegradable rope made of aliphatic polyesters. A numerical approach using ABAQUS is presented, where the material parameters of the model proposal are automatically updated in correspondence to the degradation time, by means of a script in PYTHON. In this method we also use a User Material subroutine (UMAT) to apply a failure criterion base on the strength that decreases according to a first order differential equation. The parameterization of the material model proposal for different degradation times were achieved by fitting the theoretical curves with the experimental data of tensile tests on fibres. To model all the rope behaviour we had considered one step of homogenisation considering the fibres architectures in an elementary volume. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exact cosmological solutions of models with an interacting dark sector

In this work we extend the first order formalism for cosmological models that present an interaction between a fermionic and a scalar field. Cosmological exact solutions describing universes filled with interacting dark energy and dark matter have been obtained. Viable cosmological solutions with an early period of decelerated expansion followed by late acceleration have been found, notably one which presents a dark matter component dominating in the past and a dark energy component dominating in the future. In another one, the dark energy alone is the responsible for both periods, similar to a Chaplygin gas case. Exclusively accelerating solutions have also been obtained.

Scalar field description for parametric models of dark energy

We investigate theoretical and observational aspects of a time-dependent parameterization for the dark energy equation of state w(z), which is a well behaved function of the redshift z over the entire cosmological evolution, i.e., z is an element of [-1, infinity). By using a theoretical algorithm of constructing the quintes-sence potential directly from the w(z) function, we derive and discuss the general features of the resulting potential for the cases in which dark energy is separately conserved and when it is coupled to dark matter. Since the parameterization here discussed allows us to divide the parametric plane in defined regions associated to distinct classes of dark energy models, we use some of the most recent observations from type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillation peak and Cosmic Microwave Background shift parameter to check which class is observationally preferred. We show that the largest portion of the confidence contours lies into the region corresponding to a possible crossing of the so-called phantom divide line at some point of the cosmic evolution.

Estimate of corrected values and the effect of correction for measurement error in dietary data obtained by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (AFFQ)

The scope of this study was to estimate calibrated values for dietary data obtained by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (FFQA) and illustrate the effect of this approach on food consumption data. The adolescents were assessed on two occasions, with an average interval of twelve months. In 2004, 393 adolescents participated, and 289 were then reassessed in 2005. Dietary data obtained by the FFQA were calibrated using the regression coefficients estimated from the average of two 24-hour recalls (24HR) of the subsample. The calibrated values were similar to the the 24HR reference measurement in the subsample. In 2004 and 2005 a significant difference was observed between the average consumption levels of the FFQA before and after calibration for all nutrients. With the use of calibrated data the proportion of schoolchildren who had fiber intake below the recommended level increased. Therefore, it is seen that calibrated data can be used to obtain adjusted associations due to reclassification of subjects within the predetermined categories.

Holographic field theory models of dark energy in interaction with dark matter

We discuss two Lagrangian interacting dark energy models in the context of the holographic principle. The potentials of the interacting fields are constructed. The models are compared with CMB distance information, baryonic acoustic oscillations, lookback time and the Constitution supernovae sample. For both models, the results are consistent with a nonvanishing interaction in the dark sector of the Universe and the sign of coupling is consistent with dark energy decaying into dark matter, alleviating the coincidence problem-with more than 3 standard deviations of confidence for one of them. However, this is because the noninteracting holographic dark energy model is a bad fit to the combination of data sets used in this work as compared to the cosmological constant with cold dark matter model, so that one needs to introduce the interaction in order to improve this model.

Generalized Metropolis dynamics with a generalized master equation: An approach for time-independent and time-dependent Monte Carlo simulations of generalized spin systems

The extension of Boltzmann-Gibbs thermostatistics, proposed by Tsallis, introduces an additional parameter q to the inverse temperature beta. Here, we show that a previously introduced generalized Metropolis dynamics to evolve spin models is not local and does not obey the detailed energy balance. In this dynamics, locality is only retrieved for q = 1, which corresponds to the standard Metropolis algorithm. Nonlocality implies very time-consuming computer calculations, since the energy of the whole system must be reevaluated when a single spin is flipped. To circumvent this costly calculation, we propose a generalized master equation, which gives rise to a local generalized Metropolis dynamics that obeys the detailed energy balance. To compare the different critical values obtained with other generalized dynamics, we perform Monte Carlo simulations in equilibrium for the Ising model. By using short-time nonequilibrium numerical simulations, we also calculate for this model the critical temperature and the static and dynamical critical exponents as functions of q. Even for q not equal 1, we show that suitable time-evolving power laws can be found for each initial condition. Our numerical experiments corroborate the literature results when we use nonlocal dynamics, showing that short-time parameter determination works also in this case. However, the dynamics governed by the new master equation leads to different results for critical temperatures and also the critical exponents affecting universality classes. We further propose a simple algorithm to optimize modeling the time evolution with a power law, considering in a log-log plot two successive refinements.

Exponential stability for a plate equation with p-Laplacian and memory terms

This paper is concerned with the energy decay for a class of plate equations with memory and lower order perturbation of p-Laplacian type, utt+?2u-?pu+?0tg(t-s)?u(s)ds-?ut+f(u)=0inOXR+, with simply supported boundary condition, where O is a bounded domain of RN, g?>?0 is a memory kernel that decays exponentially and f(u) is a nonlinear perturbation. This kind of problem without the memory term models elastoplastic flows.

Conditions for the validity of the quantum Langevin equation

From microscopic models, a Langevin equation can, in general, be derived only as an approximation. Two possible conditions to validate this approximation are studied. One is, for a linear Langevin equation, that the frequency of the Fourier transform should be close to the natural frequency of the system. The other is by the assumption of "slow" variables. We test this method by comparison with an exactly soluble model and point out its limitations. We base our discussion on two approaches. The first is a direct, elementary treatment of Senitzky. The second is via a generalized Langevin equation as an intermediate step.

Validation of models for predicting milk urea nitrogen concentrations, estimating dry matter intake by the NRC (2001)

The objective of this study was to validate three different models for predicting milk urea nitrogen using field conditions, attempting to evaluate the nutritional adequacy diets for dairy cows and prediction of nitrogen excreted to the environment. Observations (4,749) from 855 cows were used. Milk yield, body weight (BW), days in milk and parity were recorded on the milk sampling days. Milk was sampled monthly, for analysis of milk urea nitrogen (MUN), fat, protein, lactose and total solids concentration and somatic cells count. Individual dry matter intake was estimated using the NRC (2001). The three models studied were derived from a first one to predict urinary nitrogen (UN). Model 1 was MUN = UN/12.54, model 2 was MUN = UN/17.6 and model 3 was MUN = UN/(0.0259 × BW), adjusted by body weight effect. To evaluate models, they were tested for accuracy, precision and robustness. Despite being more accurate (mean bias = 0.94 mg/dL), model 2 was less precise (residual error = 4.50 mg/dL) than model 3 (mean bias = 1.41 and residual error = 4.11 mg/dL), while model 1 was the least accurate (mean bias = 6.94 mg/dL) and the least precise (residual error = 5.40 mg/dL). They were not robust, because they were influenced by almost all the variables studied. The three models for predicting milk urea nitrogen were different with respect to accuracy, precision and robustness.

The role of asymmetries in rock-paper-scissors biodiversity models.

The maintenance of biodiversity is a long standing puzzle in ecology. It is a classical result that if the interactions of the species in an ecosystem are chosen in a random way, then complex ecosystems can't sustain themselves, meaning that the structure of the interactions between the species must be a central component on the preservation of biodiversity and on the stability of ecosystems. The rock-paper-scissors model is one of the paradigmatic models that study how biodiversity is maintained. In this model 3 species dominate each other in a cyclic way (mimicking a trophic cycle), that is, rock dominates scissors, that dominates paper, that dominates rock. In the original version of this model, this dominance obeys a 'Z IND 3' symmetry, in the sense that the strength of dominance is always the same. In this work, we break this symmetry, studying the effects of the addition of an asymmetry parameter. In the usual model, in a two dimensional lattice, the species distribute themselves according to spiral patterns, that can be explained by the complex Landau-Guinzburg equation. With the addition of asymmetry, new spatial patterns appear during the transient and the system either ends in a state with spirals, similar to the ones of the original model, or in a state where unstable spatial patterns dominate or in a state where only one species survives (and biodiversity is lost).