10 resultados para Decision Sciences(all)
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo
Resumo:
Wild bearded capuchin monkeys, Cebus libidinosus, use stone tools to crack palm nuts to obtain the kernel. In five experiments, we gave 10 monkeys from one wild group of bearded capuchins a choice of two nuts differing in resistance and size and/or two manufactured stones of the same shape, volume and composition but different mass. Monkeys consistently selected the nut that was easier to crack and the heavier stone. When choosing between two stones differing in mass by a ratio of 1.3:1, monkeys frequently touched the stones or tapped them with their fingers or with a nut. They showed these behaviours more frequently before making their first selection of a stone than afterward. These results suggest that capuchins discriminate between nuts and between stones, selecting materials that allow them to crack nuts with fewer strikes, and generate exploratory behaviours to discriminate stones of varying mass. In the final experiment, humans effectively discriminated the mass of stones using the same tapping and handling behaviours as capuchins. Capuchins explore objects in ways that allow them to perceive invariant properties (e.g. mass) of objects, enabling selection of objects for specific uses. We predict that species that use tools will generate behaviours that reveal invariant properties of objects such as mass; species that do not use tools are less likely to explore objects in this way. The precision with which individuals can judge invariant properties may differ considerably, and this also should predict prevalence of tool use across species. (C) 2010 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Although praised for their rationality, humans often make poor decisions, even in simple situations. In the repeated binary choice experiment, an individual has to choose repeatedly between the same two alternatives, where a reward is assigned to one of them with fixed probability. The optimal strategy is to perseverate with choosing the alternative with the best expected return. Whereas many species perseverate, humans tend to match the frequencies of their choices to the frequencies of the alternatives, a sub-optimal strategy known as probability matching. Our goal was to find the primary cognitive constraints under which a set of simple evolutionary rules can lead to such contrasting behaviors. We simulated the evolution of artificial populations, wherein the fitness of each animat (artificial animal) depended on its ability to predict the next element of a sequence made up of a repeating binary string of varying size. When the string was short relative to the animats' neural capacity, they could learn it and correctly predict the next element of the sequence. When it was long, they could not learn it, turning to the next best option: to perseverate. Animats from the last generation then performed the task of predicting the next element of a non-periodical binary sequence. We found that, whereas animats with smaller neural capacity kept perseverating with the best alternative as before, animats with larger neural capacity, which had previously been able to learn the pattern of repeating strings, adopted probability matching, being outperformed by the perseverating animats. Our results demonstrate how the ability to make predictions in an environment endowed with regular patterns may lead to probability matching under less structured conditions. They point to probability matching as a likely by-product of adaptive cognitive strategies that were crucial in human evolution, but may lead to sub-optimal performances in other environments.
Resumo:
Since the early 20th century, many researchers have attempted to determine how fungi are able to emit light. The first successful experiment was obtained using the classical luciferin-luciferase test that consists of mixing under controlled conditions hot (substrate/luciferin) and cold (enzyme/luciferase) water extracts prepared from bioluminescent fungi. Failures by other researchers to reproduce those experiments using different species of fungi lead to the hypothesis of a non-enzymatic luminescent pathway. Only recently, the involvement of a luciferase in this system was proven, thus confirming its enzymatic nature. Of the 100 000 described species in Kingdom Fungi, only 71 species are known to be luminescent and they are distributed unevenly amongst four distantly related lineages. The question we address is whether the mechanism of bioluminescence is the same in all four evolutionary lineages suggesting a single origin of luminescence in the Fungi, or whether each lineage has a unique mechanism for light emission implying independent origins. We prepared hot and cold extracts of numerous species representing the four bioluminescent fungal lineages and performed cross-reactions (luciferin x luciferase) in all possible combinations using closely related non-luminescent species as controls. All cross-reactions with extracts from luminescent species yielded positive results, independent of lineage, whereas no light was emitted in cross-reactions with extracts from non-luminescent species. These results support the hypothesis that all four lineages of luminescent fungi share the same type of luciferin and luciferase, that there is a single luminescent mechanism in the Fungi, and that fungal luciferin is not a ubiquitous molecule in fungal metabolism.
Resumo:
The management of health services is a complex administrative practice due to the breadth of the field of health and the need to reconcile individual, corporate and collective interests that are not always convergent. In this context, the evaluation needs to have specific characteristics in order to fulfill its role. The scope of this study was to establish the characteristics that the evaluation for the management of health services should have to contribute to decision-making. Usefulness, opportunity, feasibility, reliability, objectivity and directionality represent the set of principles upon which the evaluation should be based. Evaluations should lead to decisions that guarantee not only their efficiency and effectiveness but also their implementation. The evaluation process should ensure that decisions involve all stakeholders in order to render the implementation of decisions feasible, and take into account the health needs of the population and the goals set for the services. The scope of this article is to elicit a debate among different stakeholders in the evaluation in the hope that it can contribute to the reflection on the real usefulness of evaluations in which the political component in management has been increasingly prevalent.
Resumo:
This paper studies the average control problem of discrete-time Markov Decision Processes (MDPs for short) with general state space, Feller transition probabilities, and possibly non-compact control constraint sets A(x). Two hypotheses are considered: either the cost function c is strictly unbounded or the multifunctions A(r)(x) = {a is an element of A(x) : c(x, a) <= r} are upper-semicontinuous and compact-valued for each real r. For these two cases we provide new results for the existence of a solution to the average-cost optimality equality and inequality using the vanishing discount approach. We also study the convergence of the policy iteration approach under these conditions. It should be pointed out that we do not make any assumptions regarding the convergence and the continuity of the limit function generated by the sequence of relative difference of the alpha-discounted value functions and the Poisson equations as often encountered in the literature. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The multiple memory systems theory proposes that the hippocampus and the dorsolateral striatum are the core structures of the spatial/relational and stimulus-response (S-R) memory systems, respectively. This theory is supported by double dissociation studies showing that the spatial and cue (S-R) versions of the Morris water maze are impaired by lesions in the dorsal hippocarnpus and dorsal striatum, respectively. In the present study we further investigated whether adult male Wistar rats bearing double and bilateral electrolytic lesions in the dorsal hippocampus and dorsolateral striatum were as impaired as rats bearing single lesions in just one of these structures in learning both versions of the water maze. Such a prediction, based on the multiple memory systems theory, was not confirmed. Compared to the controls, the animals with double lesions exhibited no improvement at all in the spatial version and learned the cued version very slowly. These results suggest that, instead of independent systems competing for holding control over navigational behaviour, the hippocampus and dorsal striatum both play critical roles in navigation based on spatial or cue-based strategies. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Objective: this study investigated the feelings of women regarding end-of-life decision making after ultrasound diagnosis of a lethal fetal malformation. The aim of this study was to present the decision making process of women that chose for pregnancy termination and to present selected speeches of women about their feelings. Design: open psychological interviews conducted by a psychologist immediately after the diagnosis of fetal malformation by ultrasound. Analysis of the results was performed through a content analysis technique. Setting: the study was carried out at a public university hospital in Brazil. Participants: 249 pregnant women who had received the diagnosis of a severe lethal fetal malformation. Findings: fetal anencephaly was the most frequent anomaly detected in 135 cases (54.3%). Termination of pregnancy was decided by 172 (69.1%) patients and legally authorised by the judiciary (66%). The reason for asking for termination was to reduce suffering in all of them. In the 77 women who chose not to terminate pregnancy (30.9%), the reasons were related to feelings of guilt (74%). Key conclusions: the results support the importance of psychological counselling for couples when lethal fetal malformation is diagnosed. The act of reviewing moral and cultural values and elements of the unconscious provides assurance in the decision-making process and mitigates the risk of emotional trauma and guilt that can continue long after the pregnancy is terminated. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
A common interest in gene expression data analysis is to identify from a large pool of candidate genes the genes that present significant changes in expression levels between a treatment and a control biological condition. Usually, it is done using a statistic value and a cutoff value that are used to separate the genes differentially and nondifferentially expressed. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to identify genes differentially expressed calculating sequentially credibility intervals from predictive densities which are constructed using the sampled mean treatment effect from all genes in study excluding the treatment effect of genes previously identified with statistical evidence for difference. We compare our Bayesian approach with the standard ones based on the use of the t-test and modified t-tests via a simulation study, using small sample sizes which are common in gene expression data analysis. Results obtained report evidence that the proposed approach performs better than standard ones, especially for cases with mean differences and increases in treatment variance in relation to control variance. We also apply the methodologies to a well-known publicly available data set on Escherichia coli bacterium.
Resumo:
Background: An important issue concerning the worldwide fight against stigma is the evaluation of psychiatrists’ beliefs and attitudes toward schizophrenia and mental illness in general. However, there is as yet no consensus on this matter in the literature, and results vary according to the stigma dimension assessed and to the cultural background of the sample. The aim of this investigation was to search for profiles of stigmatizing beliefs related to schizophrenia in a national sample of psychiatrists in Brazil. Methods: A sample of 1414 psychiatrists were recruited from among those attending the 2009 Brazilian Congress of Psychiatry. A questionnaire was applied in face-to-face interviews. The questionnaire addressed four stigma dimensions, all in reference to individuals with schizophrenia: stereotypes, restrictions, perceived prejudice and social distance. Stigma item scores were included in latent profile analyses; the resulting profiles were entered into multinomial logistic regression models with sociodemographics, in order to identify significant correlates. Results: Three profiles were identified. The “no stigma” subjects (n = 337) characterized individuals with schizophrenia in a positive light, disagreed with restrictions, and displayed a low level of social distance. The “unobtrusive stigma” subjects (n = 471) were significantly younger and displayed the lowest level of social distance, although most of them agreed with involuntary admission and demonstrated a high level of perceived prejudice. The “great stigma” subjects (n = 606) negatively stereotyped individuals with schizophrenia, agreed with restrictions and scored the highest on the perceived prejudice and social distance dimensions. In comparison with the first two profiles, this last profile comprised a significantly larger number of individuals who were in frequent contact with a family member suffering from a psychiatric disorder, as well as comprising more individuals who had no such family member. Conclusions: Our study not only provides additional data related to an under-researched area but also reveals that psychiatrists are a heterogeneous group regarding stigma toward schizophrenia. The presence of different stigma profiles should be evaluated in further studies; this could enable anti-stigma initiatives to be specifically designed to effectively target the stigmatizing group.
Resumo:
Decision tree induction algorithms represent one of the most popular techniques for dealing with classification problems. However, traditional decision-tree induction algorithms implement a greedy approach for node splitting that is inherently susceptible to local optima convergence. Evolutionary algorithms can avoid the problems associated with a greedy search and have been successfully employed to the induction of decision trees. Previously, we proposed a lexicographic multi-objective genetic algorithm for decision-tree induction, named LEGAL-Tree. In this work, we propose extending this approach substantially, particularly w.r.t. two important evolutionary aspects: the initialization of the population and the fitness function. We carry out a comprehensive set of experiments to validate our extended algorithm. The experimental results suggest that it is able to outperform both traditional algorithms for decision-tree induction and another evolutionary algorithm in a variety of application domains.