A Single Statistic for Monitoring the Covariance Matrix of Bivariate Processes

In this article, we present a new control chart for monitoring the covariance matrix in a bivariate process. In this method, n observations of the two variables were considered as if they came from a single variable (as a sample of 2n observations), and a sample variance was calculated. This statistic was used to build a new control chart specifically as a VMIX chart. The performance of the new control chart was compared with its main competitors: the generalized sampled variance chart, the likelihood ratio test, Nagao's test, probability integral transformation (v(t)), and the recently proposed VMAX chart. Among these statistics, only the VMAX chart was competitive with the VMIX chart. For shifts in both variances, the VMIX chart outperformed VMAX; however, VMAX showed better performance for large shifts (higher than 10%) in one variance.

Effect of a low-level laser on bone regeneration after rapid maxillary expansion

Introduction: In this study, we evaluated the effects of a low-level laser on bone regeneration in rapid maxillary expansion procedures. Methods: Twenty-seven children, aged 8 to 12 years, took part in the experiment, with a mean age of 10.2 years, divided into 2 groups: the laser group (n=14), in which rapid maxillary expansion was performed in conjunction with laser use, and the no-laser group (n=13), with rapid maxillary expansion only. The activation protocol of the expansion screw was 1 full turn on the first day and a half turn daily until achieving overcorrection. The laser type used was a laser diode (TWIN Laser; MMOptics, Sao Carlos, Brazil), according to the following protocol: 780 nm wavelength, 40 mW power, and 10 J/cm(2) density at 10 points located around the midpalatal suture. The application stages were 1 (days 1-5 of activation), 2 (at screw locking, on 3 consecutive days), 3, 4, and 5 (7, 14, and 21 days after stage 2). Occlusal radiographs of the maxilla were taken with the aid of an aluminum scale ruler as a densitometry reference at different times: T1 (initial), T2 (day of locking), T3 (3-5 days after T2), T4 (30 days after T3), and T5 (60 days after T4). The radiographs were digitized and submitted to imaging software (Image Tool; UTHSCSA, San Antonio, Tex) to measure the optic density of the previously selected areas. To perform the statistical test, analysis of covariance was used, with the time for the evaluated stage as the covariable. In all tests, a significance level of 5% (P<0.05) was adopted. Results: From the evaluation of bone density, the results showed that the laser improved the opening of the midpalatal suture and accelerated the bone regeneration process. Conclusions: The low-level laser, associated with rapid maxillary expansion, provided efficient opening of the midpalatal suture and influenced the bone regeneration process of the suture, accelerating healing. (Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop 2012;141:444-50)

Timing of ontogenetic changes of two cranial regions in Sotalia guianensis (Delphinidae)

Despite the fact that heterochronic processes seem to be an important process determining morphological evolution of the delphinid skull, previous workers have not found allometric scaling as relevant factor in the differentiation within the genus Sotalia. Here we analyzed the skull ontogeny of the estuarine dolphin S. guianensis and investigate differential growth and shape changes of two cranial regions the neurocranium and the face in order to evaluate the relevance of cranial compartmentalization on the ontogeny of this structure. Our results show that, even though both cranial regions stop growing at adulthood, the face has higher initial growth rates than the neurocranium. The rate of shape changes is also different for both regions, with the face showing a initially higher, but rapidly decreasing rate of change, while the neurocranium shows a slow decreasing rate, leading to persistent and localized shape changes throughout adult life, a pattern that could be related to epigenetic regional factors. The pattern of ontogenetic shape change described here is similar to those described for other groups of Delphinidae and also match intra and interspecific variation found within the family, suggesting that mosaic heterochrony could be an important factor in the morphological evolution of this group. (C) 2012 Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Saugetierkunde. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Bivariate gamma-geometric law and its induced Levy process

In this article we introduce a three-parameter extension of the bivariate exponential-geometric (BEG) law (Kozubowski and Panorska, 2005) [4]. We refer to this new distribution as the bivariate gamma-geometric (BGG) law. A bivariate random vector (X, N) follows the BGG law if N has geometric distribution and X may be represented (in law) as a sum of N independent and identically distributed gamma variables, where these variables are independent of N. Statistical properties such as moment generation and characteristic functions, moments and a variance-covariance matrix are provided. The marginal and conditional laws are also studied. We show that BBG distribution is infinitely divisible, just as the BEG model is. Further, we provide alternative representations for the BGG distribution and show that it enjoys a geometric stability property. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference are discussed and a reparametrization is proposed in order to obtain orthogonality of the parameters. We present an application to a real data set where our model provides a better fit than the BEG model. Our bivariate distribution induces a bivariate Levy process with correlated gamma and negative binomial processes, which extends the bivariate Levy motion proposed by Kozubowski et al. (2008) [6]. The marginals of our Levy motion are a mixture of gamma and negative binomial processes and we named it BMixGNB motion. Basic properties such as stochastic self-similarity and the covariance matrix of the process are presented. The bivariate distribution at fixed time of our BMixGNB process is also studied and some results are derived, including a discussion about maximum likelihood estimation and inference. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early Rheumatoid Arthritis in Latin America: Low Socioeconomic Status Related to High Disease Activity at Baseline

Objective. To determine the influence of socioeconomic factors on disease activity in a Latin American (LA) early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) multinational inception cohort at baseline. Methods. Clinical evaluation, ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), 4-variable Disease Activity Score in 28 joints using the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR), Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) disability index (DI), and erosions were recorded in 1,093 patients with early RA (<1 year from onset). Multivariate analyses evaluated influences of sex, age, marital status, education, medical coverage, SES, and ethnicity on HAQ DI, DAS28-ESR, and presence of erosions. Results. Ethnicities included 43% Mestizo, 31% Caucasian, 19% African LA, 4% Amerindian, and 3% other. Fifty-eight percent were of low/low-middle SES, 42% had <8 years of education, 21% had no medical coverage, median disease duration was 6 months (25th, 75th percentiles 4, 9 months), median HAQ DI score was 1.25 (25th, 75th percentiles 0.63, 2.00), median DAS28-ESR score was 6.2 (25th, 75th percentiles 4.9, 7.2), and 25% had erosions. Women and Mestizos, African LA, and Amerindians had earlier onset than men or Caucasians (P < 0.01). When adjusted by country, the analysis of covariance model showed that low/low-middle SES, female sex, partial coverage, and older age were associated with worse HAQ DI scores; only low/low-middle SES was associated with higher DAS28 scores. Statistically significant differences were found in HAQ DI and DAS28 scores between countries. When excluding country, low/low-middle SES, female sex, and no coverage were associated with worse HAQ DI and DAS28 scores, whereas separated/divorced/widowed status was associated with worse HAQ DI scores and age was associated with worse DAS28 scores. Logistic regression showed that older age, no coverage, and the Amerindian and other ethnic groups were associated with erosions. Conclusion. We compared early RA patients from the main LA ethnic groups. Our findings suggest that low/low-middle SES is important in determining disease activity. A more genetic-related background for erosions is possible.

High levels of C-reactive protein are associated with reduced vagal modulation and low physical activity in young adults

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between cardiac autonomic control derived from heart rate variability (HRV), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and physical activity (PA) levels measured using accelerometers. A total of 80 healthy university students volunteered to participate in this study (20.56 +/- 0.82 years, 1.36 +/- 1.5 mg/L of hs-CRP). The participants were divided into groups based on tertiles of hs-CRP. Analysis of covariance adjusted to PA was used to assess group differences in HRV. Associations between hs-CRP, HRV indices and PA were analyzed using Pearson's correlation. The participants at the highest tertile of hs-CRP (tertile 3) had lower cardiac vagal modulation (SDNN, tertile 1=78.05 +/- 5.9,tertile 2=82.43 +/- 5.9,tertile 3=56.03 +/- 6.1; SD1, tertile 1=61.27 +/- 5.3, tertile 2=62.93 +/- 5.4, tertile 3=40.03 +/- 5.5). In addition, vagal indices were inversely correlated with hs-CRP but positively correlated with PA (SDNN r=-0.320, SD1 r=-0.377; SDNN r=0.304, SD1 r=0.299; P<0.05). Furthermore, the most physically active subjects had lower levels of hs-CRP and the highest levels of vagal modulation.

Processo maturacional, insatisfação corporal e comportamento alimentar inadequado em jovens atletas

Objetivo O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a associação entre o processo maturacional, a insatisfação corporal e o comportamento alimentar inadequado, de acordo com o sexo, em jovens atletas. Métodos Participaram da pesquisa 580 indivíduos, de ambos os sexos, pertencentes a diferentes modalidades esportivas. Foram avaliados a maturação sexual, a maturação somática, a insatisfação corporal e o comportamento alimentar inadequado, por meio dos Critérios de Tanner, banco de Lohman, Body Shape Questionnaire e Eating Attitudes Test, respectivamente. O percentual de gordura foi estimado pela medição das dobras cutâneas, e a aferição de peso e de estatura foi utilizada para calcular o índice de massa corporal. Realizaram-se modelo Univariado de Covariância, regressão logística binária e regressão linear múltipla para análise dos dados. Resultados Os resultados demonstraram diferenças estatisticamente significativas (p<0,05) na insatisfação corporal entre os estágios maturacionais. Além disso, os meninos pré-púberes e púberes apresentaram maior probabilidade de insatisfação corporal em relação aos atletas pós-púberes (p<0,05), e o modelo de regressão logística mostrou associação entre os estágios maturacionais e o comportamento alimentar inadequado apenas no sexo masculino (p<0,05). Nas meninas, o processo maturacional explicou em 9% e 7% a variância da insatisfação corporal (p<0,05) e comportamento alimentar inadequado (p<0,05), respectivamente.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

Introduction: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. Methods: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. Results: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirao Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. Conclusions: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

The full Fisher matrix for galaxy surveys

Starting from the Fisher matrix for counts in cells, we derive the full Fisher matrix for surveys of multiple tracers of large-scale structure. The key step is the classical approximation, which allows us to write the inverse of the covariance of the galaxy counts in terms of the naive matrix inverse of the covariance in a mixed position-space and Fourier-space basis. We then compute the Fisher matrix for the power spectrum in bins of the 3D wavenumber , the Fisher matrix for functions of position (or redshift z) such as the linear bias of the tracers and/or the growth function and the cross-terms of the Fisher matrix that expresses the correlations between estimations of the power spectrum and estimations of the bias. When the bias and growth function are fully specified, and the Fourier-space bins are large enough that the covariance between them can be neglected, the Fisher matrix for the power spectrum reduces to the widely used result that was first derived by Feldman, Kaiser & Peacock. Assuming isotropy, a fully analytical calculation of the Fisher matrix in the classical approximation can be performed in the case of a constant-density, volume-limited survey.

A MODIS-Based Energy Balance to Estimate Evapotranspiration for Clear-Sky Days in Brazilian Tropical Savannas

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in global climate dynamics and in primary production of terrestrial ecosystems; it represents the mass and energy transfer from the land to atmosphere. Limitations to measuring ET at large scales using ground-based methods have motivated the development of satellite remote sensing techniques. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the accuracy of the SEBAL algorithm for estimating surface turbulent heat fluxes at regional scale, using 28 images from MODIS. SEBAL estimates are compared with eddy-covariance (EC) measurements and results from the hydrological model MGB-IPH. SEBAL instantaneous estimates of latent heat flux (LE) yielded r(2) = 0.64 and r(2) = 0.62 over sugarcane croplands and savannas when compared against in situ EC estimates. At the same sites, daily aggregated estimates of LE were r(2) = 0.76 and r(2) = 0.66, respectively. Energy balance closure showed that turbulent fluxes over sugarcane croplands were underestimated by 7% and 9% over savannas. Average daily ET from SEBAL is in close agreement with estimates from the hydrological model for an overlay of 38,100 km(2) (r(2) = 0.88). Inputs to which the algorithm is most sensitive are vegetation index (NDVI), gradient of temperature (dT) to compute sensible heat flux (H) and net radiation (Re). It was verified that SEBAL has a tendency to overestimate results both at local and regional scales probably because of low sensitivity to soil moisture and water stress. Nevertheless the results confirm the potential of the SEBAL algorithm, when used with MODIS images for estimating instantaneous LE and daily ET from large areas.

Water use in a sugarcane plantation

The evapotranspiration (E) from a sugarcane plantation in the southeast Brazil was measured by the eddy-covariance method during two consecutive cycles. These represented the second (393 similar to days) and third year (374 similar to days) re-growth (ratoon). The total E in the first cycle was 829 similar to mm, accounting for 69% of rainfall, whereas in the second cycle, it was 690 similar to mm, despite the total rainfall (1353 similar to mm) being 13% greater. The ratio of E to available energy, the evaporative fraction, exhibited a smaller variation between the first and second cycles: 0.58 and 0.51, respectively. The estimated interception losses were 88 and 90 similar to mm, respectively, accounting for approximately 7% of the total rainfall. The sugarcane yield in the second cycle (61.5 similar to +/-similar to 4.0 similar to t similar to ha-1) was 26% lower than the first cycle, as well as lower than the regional average for the third ratoon (76 similar to t similar to ha-1). The below average yield was associated with less available soil water at the beginning of the cycle, with the amount of rainfall recorded during the first 120 similar to days of re-growth in the second cycle being 16% of that recorded in the first (203 similar to mm).

MODULARITY, NOISE, AND NATURAL SELECTION

Most biological systems are formed by component parts that are to some degree interrelated. Groups of parts that are more associated among themselves and are relatively autonomous from others are called modules. One of the consequences of modularity is that biological systems usually present an unequal distribution of the genetic variation among traits. Estimating the covariance matrix that describes these systems is a difficult problem due to a number of factors such as poor sample sizes and measurement errors. We show that this problem will be exacerbated whenever matrix inversion is required, as in directional selection reconstruction analysis. We explore the consequences of varying degrees of modularity and signal-to-noise ratio on selection reconstruction. We then present and test the efficiency of available methods for controlling noise in matrix estimates. In our simulations, controlling matrices for noise vastly improves the reconstruction of selection gradients. We also perform an analysis of selection gradients reconstruction over a New World Monkeys skull database to illustrate the impact of noise on such analyses. Noise-controlled estimates render far more plausible interpretations that are in full agreement with previous results.

Signal propagation in Bayesian networks and its relationship with intrinsically multivariate predictive variables

A set of predictor variables is said to be intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) for a target variable if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are poor predictors of the. target but the full set predicts the target with great accuracy. In a previous article, the main properties of IMP Boolean variables have been analytically described, including the introduction of the IMP score, a metric based on the coefficient of determination (CoD) as a measure of predictiveness with respect to the target variable. It was shown that the IMP score depends on four main properties: logic of connection, predictive power, covariance between predictors and marginal predictor probabilities (biases). This paper extends that work to a broader context, in an attempt to characterize properties of discrete Bayesian networks that contribute to the presence of variables (network nodes) with high IMP scores. We have found that there is a relationship between the IMP score of a node and its territory size, i.e., its position along a pathway with one source: nodes far from the source display larger IMP scores than those closer to the source, and longer pathways display larger maximum IMP scores. This appears to be a consequence of the fact that nodes with small territory have larger probability of having highly covariate predictors, which leads to smaller IMP scores. In addition, a larger number of XOR and NXOR predictive logic relationships has positive influence over the maximum IMP score found in the pathway. This work presents analytical results based on a simple structure network and an analysis involving random networks constructed by computational simulations. Finally, results from a real Bayesian network application are provided. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intervention Based Exclusively on Stage- Matched Printed EducationalMaterials Regarding Healthy Eating Does Not Result in Changes to Adolescents' Dietary Behavior

Purpose. To assess the impact of a six-month stage-based intervention on fruit and vegetable intake, regarding perceived benefits and barriers, and self-efficacy among adolescents. Design. Randomized treatment-control, pre-post design. Subjects/ Setting. Schools were randomized between control and experimental groups. 860 adolescents from ten public schools in Bras ' ilia, Federal District, Brazil were evaluated at baseline; 771 (81%) completed the study. Intervention. Experimental group received monthly magazines and newsletters aimed at promotion of healthy eating. Measures. Self-reported fruit and vegetable intake, stages of change, self-efficacy and decisional balance scores were evaluated at baseline and post-intervention in both groups. Analysis. The effectiveness of the intervention was evaluated using the analysis of covariance model (ANCOVA) and repeated measurement analysis by means of weighted least squares. Comparison between the proportions of adolescents who advanced through the stages during the intervention was performed using the Mantel-Haenszel chi-square test. Results. After adjusting for sex and age, study variables showed no modifications through the proposed intervention. There was no statistical difference in participant mobility in the intervention and control groups between the stages of change, throughout the study. Conclusion. A nutritional intervention based exclusively on distribution of stage-matched printed educational materials was insufficient to change adolescents' dietary behavior.

Validation and comparison of two soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models for tropical Africa

This study aims to compare and validate two soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) schemes: TERRA-ML and the Community Land Model (CLM). Both SVAT schemes are run in standalone mode (decoupled from an atmospheric model) and forced with meteorological in-situ measurements obtained at several tropical African sites. Model performance is quantified by comparing simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes with eddy-covariance measurements. Our analysis indicates that the Community Land Model corresponds more closely to the micrometeorological observations, reflecting the advantages of the higher model complexity and physical realism. Deficiencies in TERRA-ML are addressed and its performance is improved: (1) adjusting input data (root depth) to region-specific values (tropical evergreen forest) resolves dry-season underestimation of evapotranspiration; (2) adjusting the leaf area index and albedo (depending on hard-coded model constants) resolves overestimations of both latent and sensible heat fluxes; and (3) an unrealistic flux partitioning caused by overestimated superficial water contents is reduced by adjusting the hydraulic conductivity parameterization. CLM is by default more versatile in its global application on different vegetation types and climates. On the other hand, with its lower degree of complexity, TERRA-ML is much less computationally demanding, which leads to faster calculation times in a coupled climate simulation.