9 resultados para Complex systems prediction
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo
Resumo:
This paper deals with the emergence of explosive synchronization in scale-free networks by considering the Kuramoto model of coupled phase oscillators. The natural frequencies of oscillators are assumed to be correlated with their degrees, and a time delay is included in the system. This assumption allows enhancing the explosive transition to reach a synchronous state. We provide an analytical treatment developed in a star graph, which reproduces results obtained in scale-free networks. Our findings have important implications in understanding the synchronization of complex networks since the time delay is present in most real-world complex systems due to the finite speed of the signal transmission over a distance.
Resumo:
A poorly understood phenomenon seen in complex systems is diffusion characterized by Hurst exponent H approximate to 1/2 but with non-Gaussian statistics. Motivated by such empirical findings, we report an exact analytical solution for a non-Markovian random walk model that gives rise to weakly anomalous diffusion with H = 1/2 but with a non-Gaussian propagator.
Resumo:
Robust analysis of vector fields has been established as an important tool for deriving insights from the complex systems these fields model. Traditional analysis and visualization techniques rely primarily on computing streamlines through numerical integration. The inherent numerical errors of such approaches are usually ignored, leading to inconsistencies that cause unreliable visualizations and can ultimately prevent in-depth analysis. We propose a new representation for vector fields on surfaces that replaces numerical integration through triangles with maps from the triangle boundaries to themselves. This representation, called edge maps, permits a concise description of flow behaviors and is equivalent to computing all possible streamlines at a user defined error threshold. Independent of this error streamlines computed using edge maps are guaranteed to be consistent up to floating point precision, enabling the stable extraction of features such as the topological skeleton. Furthermore, our representation explicitly stores spatial and temporal errors which we use to produce more informative visualizations. This work describes the construction of edge maps, the error quantification, and a refinement procedure to adhere to a user defined error bound. Finally, we introduce new visualizations using the additional information provided by edge maps to indicate the uncertainty involved in computing streamlines and topological structures.
Resumo:
We obtain the Paris law of fatigue crack propagation in a fuse network model where the accumulated damage in each resistor increases with time as a power law of the local current amplitude. When a resistor reaches its fatigue threshold, it burns irreversibly. Over time, this drives cracks to grow until the system is fractured into two parts. We study the relation between the macroscopic exponent of the crack-growth rate -entering the phenomenological Paris law-and the microscopic damage accumulation exponent, gamma, under the influence of disorder. The way the jumps of the growing crack, Delta a, and the waiting time between successive breaks, Delta t, depend on the type of material, via gamma, are also investigated. We find that the averages of these quantities, <Delta a > and <Delta t >/< t(r)>, scale as power laws of the crack length a, <Delta a > proportional to a(alpha) and <Delta t >/< t(r)> proportional to a(-beta), where < t(r)> is the average rupture time. Strikingly, our results show, for small values of gamma, a decrease in the exponent of the Paris law in comparison with the homogeneous case, leading to an increase in the lifetime of breaking materials. For the particular case of gamma = 0, when fatigue is exclusively ruled by disorder, an analytical treatment confirms the results obtained by simulation. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2012
Resumo:
The amount of information exchanged per unit of time between two nodes in a dynamical network or between two data sets is a powerful concept for analysing complex systems. This quantity, known as the mutual information rate (MIR), is calculated from the mutual information, which is rigorously defined only for random systems. Moreover, the definition of mutual information is based on probabilities of significant events. This work offers a simple alternative way to calculate the MIR in dynamical (deterministic) networks or between two time series (not fully deterministic), and to calculate its upper and lower bounds without having to calculate probabilities, but rather in terms of well known and well defined quantities in dynamical systems. As possible applications of our bounds, we study the relationship between synchronisation and the exchange of information in a system of two coupled maps and in experimental networks of coupled oscillators.
Resumo:
The transient and equilibrium properties of dynamics unfolding in complex systems can depend critically on specific topological features of the underlying interconnections. In this work, we investigate such a relationship with respect to the integrate-and-fire dynamics emanating from a source node and an extended network model that allows control of the small-world feature as well as the length of the long-range connections. A systematic approach to investigate the local and global correlations between structural and dynamical features of the networks was adopted that involved extensive simulations (one and a half million cases) so as to obtain two-dimensional correlation maps. Smooth, but diverse surfaces of correlation values were obtained in all cases. Regarding the global cases, it has been verified that the onset avalanche time (but not its intensity) can be accurately predicted from the structural features within specific regions of the map (i.e. networks with specific structural properties). The analysis at local level revealed that the dynamical features before the avalanches can also be accurately predicted from structural features. This is not possible for the dynamical features after the avalanches take place. This is so because the overall topology of the network predominates over the local topology around the source at the stationary state.
Resumo:
We consider a class of involutive systems of n smooth vector fields on the n + 1 dimensional torus. We obtain a complete characterization for the global solvability of this class in terms of Liouville forms and of the connectedness of all sublevel and superlevel sets of the primitive of a certain 1-form in the minimal covering space.
Resumo:
Current scientific applications have been producing large amounts of data. The processing, handling and analysis of such data require large-scale computing infrastructures such as clusters and grids. In this area, studies aim at improving the performance of data-intensive applications by optimizing data accesses. In order to achieve this goal, distributed storage systems have been considering techniques of data replication, migration, distribution, and access parallelism. However, the main drawback of those studies is that they do not take into account application behavior to perform data access optimization. This limitation motivated this paper which applies strategies to support the online prediction of application behavior in order to optimize data access operations on distributed systems, without requiring any information on past executions. In order to accomplish such a goal, this approach organizes application behaviors as time series and, then, analyzes and classifies those series according to their properties. By knowing properties, the approach selects modeling techniques to represent series and perform predictions, which are, later on, used to optimize data access operations. This new approach was implemented and evaluated using the OptorSim simulator, sponsored by the LHC-CERN project and widely employed by the scientific community. Experiments confirm this new approach reduces application execution time in about 50 percent, specially when handling large amounts of data.
The role of empirical research in the study of complex forms of governance in agroindustrial systems
Resumo:
The growing complexity of supply chains poses new challenges for Agricultural Research Centers and statistical agencies. The aim of this perspective paper is to discuss the role of empirical research in understanding the complex forms of governance in agribusiness. The authors argue that there are three fundamental levels of analysis: (i) the basic structure of the market, (ii) the formal contractual arrangements that govern relations within the agroindustrial system and (iii) the transactional dimensions governed by non-contractual means. The case of the agrochemical industry in Brazil illustrates how traditional analyses that only address market structure are insufficient to fully explain the agricultural sector and its supply chain. The article concludes by suggesting some indicators which could be collected by statistical agencies to improve understanding of the complex relationships among agribusiness segments. In doing so, the paper seeks to minimize costs and to enable a better formulation of public and private policies.