Longitudinal outcomes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections as competing-risks events following cervical HPV test at baseline visit in the *NIS-LAMS** cohort

Background: The complex natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections following a single HPV test can be modeled as competing-risks events (i.e., no-, transient- or persistent infection) in a longitudinal setting. The covariates associated with these compet ng events have not been previously assessed using competing-risks regression models. Objectives: To gain further insights in the outcomes of cervical HPV infections, we used univariate- and multivariate competing-risks regression models to assess the covariaies associated with these competing events. Study Design and Methods: Covariates associated with three competing outcomes (no-, transient- or persistent HR-HPV infection) were analysed in a sub-cohort of 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS Study (n = 12,114). Results: In multivariate competing-risks models (with two other outcomes as competing events), permanently HR-HPV negative outcome was significantly predicted only by the clearance of ASCUS+Pap during FU, while three independent covariates predicted transient HR-HPV infections: i) number of recent (< 12 months) sexual partners (risk increased), ii) previous Pap screening history (protective), and history of previous CIN (increased risk). The two most powerful predictors of persistent HR-HPV infections were persistent ASCUS+Pap (risk increased), and previous Pap screening history (protective). In pair-wise comparisons, number of recent sexual partners and previous CIN history increase the probability of transient HR-HPV infection against the HR-HPV negative competing event, while previous Pap screening history is protective. Persistent ASCUS+Pap during FU and no previous Pap screening history are significantly associated with the persistent HR-HPV outcome (compared both with i) always negative, and ii) transient events), whereas multiparity is protective. Conclusions: Different covariates are associated with the three main outcomes of cervical HPV infections. The most significant covariates of each competing events are probably distinct enough to enable constructing of a risk-profile for each main outcome.

Covariates of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are distinct for incident CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 as disclosed by competing-risks regression models

Background: In addition to the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV), several cofactors are needed in cervical carcinogenesis, but whether the HPV covariates associated with incident i) CIN1 are different from those of incident ii) CIN2 and iii) CIN3 needs further assessment. Objectives: To gain further insights into the true biological differences between CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, we assessed HPV covariates associated with incident CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3. Study Design and Methods: HPV covariates associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 were analysed in the combined cohort of the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS study (n = 12,114), using competing-risks regression models (in panel data) for baseline HR-HPV-positive women (n = 1,105), who represent a sub-cohort of all 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in these two studies. Results: Altogether, 90 (4.8%), 39 (2.1%) and 14 (1.4%) cases progressed to CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3, respectively. Among these baseline HR-HPV-positive women, the risk profiles of incident GIN I, CIN2 and CIN3 were unique in that completely different HPV covariates were associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, irrespective which categories (non-progression, CIN1, CIN2, CIN3 or all) were used as competing-risks events in univariate and multivariate models. Conclusions: These data confirm our previous analysis based on multinomial regression models implicating that distinct covariates of HR-HPV are associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3. This emphasises true biological differences between the three grades of GIN, which revisits the concept of combining CIN2 with CIN3 or with CIN1 in histological classification or used as a common end-point, e.g., in HPV vaccine trials.

Temporal Trends of Asthma Mortality Rates in Brazil from 1980 to 2010

Objective. Mortality from asthma has varied among countries during the last several decades. This study aimed to identify temporal trends of asthma mortality in Brazil from 1980 to 2010. Method. We analyzed 6840 deaths of patients aged 5-34 years that occurred in Brazil with the underlying cause of asthma. We applied a log-linear model using Poisson regression to verify peaks and trends. We also calculated the point estimation and 95% confidence interval (CI 95%) of the annual percent change (APC) of the mortality rates, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) for 2001-2010. Results. A decline was observed from 1980 to 1992 [APC = -3.4 (-5.0 to -1.8)], followed by a nonsignificant rise until 1996 [APC = 6.8 (-1.4 to 15.6)], and a new downward trend from 1997 to 2010 [APC = -2.7 (-3.9 to -1.6)]. The APCs varied according to age strata: 5-14 years from 1980 to 2010 [-0.3 (-1.1 to 0.5)]; 15-24 years from 1980 to 1991 [-2.1 (-5.0 to 0.9)], from 1992 to 1996 [6.8 (-6.7 to 22.2)], and from 1997 to 2010 [-3.9 (-5.7 to -2.0)]; 24-25 years from 1980 to 1992 [-2.5 (-4.6 to -0.3)], from 1993 to 1995 [12.0 (-21.1 to 59.1)], and from 1996-2010 [-1.7 (-3.0 to -0.4)]. AAPC from 2001 to 2010 was -1.7 (-3.0 to -0.4); the decline for this period was significant for patients over 15 years old, women, and those living in the Southeast region. Conclusion. Asthma mortality rates in Brazil have been declining since the late 1990s.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Soil carbon balance in a tropical grassland: Estimation of soil respiration and its partitioning using a semi-empirical model

In savannah and tropical grasslands, which account for 60% of grasslands worldwide, a large share of ecosystem carbon is located below ground due to high root:shoot ratios. Temporal variations in soil CO2 efflux (R-S) were investigated in a grassland of coastal Congo over two years. The objectives were (1) to identify the main factors controlling seasonal variations in R-S and (2) to develop a semi-empirical model describing R-S and including a heterotrophic component (R-H) and an autotrophic component (R-A). Plant above-ground activity was found to exert strong control over soil respiration since 71% of seasonal R-S variability was explained by the quantity of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed (APAR) by the grass canopy. We tested an additive model including a parameter enabling R-S partitioning into R-A and R-H. Assumptions underlying this model were that R-A mainly depended on the amount of photosynthates allocated below ground and that microbial and root activity was mostly controlled by soil temperature and soil moisture. The model provided a reasonably good prediction of seasonal variations in R-S (R-2 = 0.85) which varied between 5.4 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) in the wet season and 0.9 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) at the end of the dry season. The model was subsequently used to obtain annual estimates of R-S, R-A and R-H. In accordance with results reported for other tropical grasslands, we estimated that R-H accounted for 44% of R-S, which represented a flux similar to the amount of carbon brought annually to the soil from below-ground litter production. Overall, this study opens up prospects for simulating the carbon budget of tropical grasslands on a large scale using remotely sensed data. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Occurrence of organochlorine compounds in Euphausia superba and unhatched eggs of Pygoscelis genus penguins from Admiralty Bay (King George Island, Antarctica) and estimation of biomagnification factors

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides are compounds that do not occur naturally in the environment and are not easily degraded by chemical or microbiological action. In the present work, those compounds were analysed in unhatched penguin eggs and whole krill collected in Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Antarctica in the austral summers of 2004-2005 and 2005-2006. The compounds found in higher levels (in a wet weight basis) were, in most of the egg samples, the PCBs (2.53-78.7 ng g(-1)), DDTs (2.07-38.0 ng g(-1)) and HCB (4.99-39.1 ng g(-1)) and after Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, the occurrence seemed to be species-specific for the Pygoscelis genus. In all of the cases, the levels found were not higher than the ones in Arctic birds in a similar trophic level. The krill samples analysis allowed estimating the biomagnification factors (which resulted in up to 363 for HCB, one order of magnitude higher than DDTs and chlordanes and two orders of magnitude higher than the other groups) of the compounds found in eggs, whose only source of contamination is the female-offspring transfer. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differential calculus and integration of generalized functions over membranes

In this paper we continue the development of the differential calculus started in Aragona et al. (Monatsh. Math. 144: 13-29, 2005). Guided by the so-called sharp topology and the interpretation of Colombeau generalized functions as point functions on generalized point sets, we introduce the notion of membranes and extend the definition of integrals, given in Aragona et al. (Monatsh. Math. 144: 13-29, 2005), to integrals defined on membranes. We use this to prove a generalized version of the Cauchy formula and to obtain the Goursat Theorem for generalized holomorphic functions. A number of results from classical differential and integral calculus, like the inverse and implicit function theorems and Green's theorem, are transferred to the generalized setting. Further, we indicate that solution formulas for transport and wave equations with generalized initial data can be obtained as well.

Efficacy of Cosmetic Formulations Containing Dispersion of Liposome with Magnesium Ascorbyl Phosphate, Alpha-Lipoic Acid and Kinetin

The present study aimed to evaluate the photoprotective effects of cosmetic formulations containing a dispersion of liposome with magnesium ascorbyl phosphate (MAP), alpha-lipoic acid (ALA) and kinetin, as well as their effects on the hydration and viscoelastic skin properties. The photoprotection was determined in vitro (antioxidant activity) and in vivo on UV-irradiated hairless mouse skin. The hydration effects were performed with the application of the formulations under study on the forearm of human volunteers and skin conditions were analyzed before and after a single application and daily applications during 4 weeks in terms of transepidermal water loss (TEWL), skin moisture and viscoelastic properties. The raw material under study possessed free-radical scavenging activity and the formulation with it protected hairless mouse skin barrier function against UV damage. After 4 weeks of application on human skin, the formulation under study enhanced stratum corneum skin moisture and also showed hydration effects in deeper layers of the skin. Thus, it can be concluded that the cosmetic formulation containing a dispersion of liposome with MAP, ALA and kinetin under study showed photoprotective effects in skin barrier function as well as pronounced hydration effects on human skin, which suggests that this dispersion has potential antiaging effects.

DXA, bioelectrical impedance, ultrasonography and biometry for the estimation of fat and lean mass in cats during weight loss

Background: Few equations have been developed in veterinary medicine compared to human medicine to predict body composition. The present study was done to evaluate the influence of weight loss on biometry (BIO), bioimpedance analysis (BIA) and ultrasonography (US) in cats, proposing equations to estimate fat (FM) and lean (LM) body mass, as compared to dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as the referenced method. For this were used 16 gonadectomized obese cats (8 males and 8 females) in a weight loss program. DXA, BIO, BIA and US were performed in the obese state (T0; obese animals), after 10% of weight loss (T1) and after 20% of weight loss (T2). Stepwise regression was used to analyze the relationship between the dependent variables (FM, LM) determined by DXA and the independent variables obtained by BIO, BIA and US. The better models chosen were evaluated by a simple regression analysis and means predicted vs. determined by DXA were compared to verify the accuracy of the equations. Results: The independent variables determined by BIO, BIA and US that best correlated (p < 0.005) with the dependent variables (FM and LM) were BW (body weight), TC (thoracic circumference), PC (pelvic circumference), R (resistance) and SFLT (subcutaneous fat layer thickness). Using Mallows'Cp statistics, p value and r(2), 19 equations were selected (12 for FM, 7 for LM); however, only 7 equations accurately predicted FM and one LM of cats. Conclusions: The equations with two variables are better to use because they are effective and will be an alternative method to estimate body composition in the clinical routine. For estimated lean mass the equations using body weight associated with biometrics measures can be proposed. For estimated fat mass the equations using body weight associated with bioimpedance analysis can be proposed.

Multi-element determination in Brazilian honey samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and estimation of geographic origin with data mining techniques

Multi-element analysis of honey samples was carried out with the aim of developing a reliable method of tracing the origin of honey. Forty-two chemical elements were determined (Al, Cu, Pb, Zn, Mn, Cd, Tl, Co, Ni, Rb, Ba, Be, Bi, U, V, Fe, Pt, Pd, Te, Hf, Mo, Sn, Sb, P, La, Mg, I, Sm, Tb, Dy, Sd, Th, Pr, Nd, Tm, Yb, Lu, Gd, Ho, Er, Ce, Cr) by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Then, three machine learning tools for classification and two for attribute selection were applied in order to prove that it is possible to use data mining tools to find the region where honey originated. Our results clearly demonstrate the potential of Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Random Forest (RF) chemometric tools for honey origin identification. Moreover, the selection tools allowed a reduction from 42 trace element concentrations to only 5. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of taurindicine hybridization of American Zebu cattle in Brazil

Our objective was to estimate Bos primigenius taurus introgression in American Zebu cattle. One hundred and four American Zebu (Nellore) cattle were submitted to mtDNA, microsatellite and satellite analysis. Twenty-three alleles were detected in microsatellite analysis, averaging 4.6 +/- 1.82/locus. Variance component comparisons of microsatellite allele sizes allowed the construction of two clusters separating taurus and indicus. No significant variation was observed when indicus and taurus mtDNA were compared. Three possible genotypes of 1711b satellite DNA were identified. All European animals showed the same restriction pattern, suggesting a Zebu-specific restriction pattern. The frequencies of B. primigenius indicus-specific microsatellite alleles and 1711b satellite DNA restriction patterns lead to an estimate of 14% taurine contribution in purebred Nellore.

Nonlinear estimation of neural processing time from BOLD signal with application to decision-making

The extraction of information about neural activity timing from BOLD signal is a challenging task as the shape of the BOLD curve does not directly reflect the temporal characteristics of electrical activity of neurons. In this work, we introduce the concept of neural processing time (NPT) as a parameter of the biophysical model of the hemodynamic response function (HRF). Through this new concept we aim to infer more accurately the duration of neuronal response from the highly nonlinear BOLD effect. The face validity and applicability of the concept of NPT are evaluated through simulations and analysis of experimental time series. The results of both simulation and application were compared with summary measures of HRF shape. The experiment that was analyzed consisted of a decision-making paradigm with simultaneous emotional distracters. We hypothesize that the NPT in primary sensory areas, like the fusiform gyrus, is approximately the stimulus presentation duration. On the other hand, in areas related to processing of an emotional distracter, the NPT should depend on the experimental condition. As predicted, the NPT in fusiform gyrus is close to the stimulus duration and the NPT in dorsal anterior cingulate gyrus depends on the presence of an emotional distracter. Interestingly, the NPT in right but not left dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex depends on the stimulus emotional content. The summary measures of HRF obtained by a standard approach did not detect the variations observed in the NPT. Hum Brain Mapp, 2012. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

TYPE-ZERO SADDLE-NODE BIFURCATIONS AND STABILITY REGION ESTIMATION OF NONLINEAR AUTONOMOUS DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS

A complete characterization of the stability boundary of a class of nonlinear dynamical systems that admit energy functions is developed in this paper. This characterization generalizes the existing results by allowing the type-zero saddle-node nonhyperbolic equilibrium points on the stability boundary. Conceptual algorithms to obtain optimal estimates of the stability region (basin of attraction) in the form of level sets of a given family of energy functions are derived. The behavior of the stability region and the corresponding estimates are investigated for parameter variation in the neighborhood of a type-zero saddle-node bifurcation value.

Depletion study and estimation of the withdrawal period for oxytetracycline in tilapia cultured in Brazil

Defining pharmacokinetic parameters and depletion intervals for antimicrobials used in fish represents important guidelines for future regulation by Brazilian agencies of the use of these substances in fish farming. This article presents a depletion study for oxytetracycline (OTC) in tilapias (Orechromis niloticus) farmed under tropical conditions during the winter season. High performance liquid chromatography, with fluorescence detection for the quantitation of OTC in tilapia fillets and medicated feed, was developed and validated. The depletion study with fish was carried out under monitored environmental conditions. OTC was administered in the feed for five consecutive days at daily dosages of 80 mg/kg body weight. Groups of ten fish were slaughtered at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 15, 20, and 25 days after medication. After the 8th day posttreatment, OTC concentrations in the tilapia fillets were below the limit of quantitation (13 ng/g) of the method. Linear regression of the mathematical model of data analysis presented a coefficient of 0.9962. The elimination half- life for OTC in tilapia fillet and the withdrawal period were 1.65 and 6 days, respectively, considering a percentile of 99% with 95% of confidence and a maximum residue limit of 100 ng/g. Even though the study was carried out in the winter under practical conditions where water temperature varied, the results obtained are similar to others from studies conducted under controlled temperature.

Cannabidiol blocks long-lasting behavioral consequences of predator threat stress: Possible involvement of 5HT1A receptors

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is an incapacitating syndrome that follows a traumatic experience. Predator exposure promotes long-lasting anxiogenic effect in rodents, an effect related to symptoms found in PTSD patients. Cannabidiol (CBD) is a non-psychotomimetic component of Cannabis sativa with anxiolytic effects. The present study investigated the anti-anxiety actions of CBD administration in a model of PTSD. Male Wistar rats exposed to a predator (cat) received, 1 h later, singled or repeated i.p. administration of vehicle or CBD. Seven days after the stress animals were submitted to the elevated plus maze. To investigate the involvement of 5HT1A receptors in CBD effects animals were pre-treated with WAY100635, a 5HT1A receptor antagonist. To explore possible neurobiological mechanisms involved in these effects, 5HT1A receptor mRNA and BDNF protein expression were measured in the hippocampus, frontal cortex, amygdaloid complex and dorsal periaqueductal gray. Repeated administration of CBD prevented long-lasting anxiogenic effects promoted by a single predator exposure. Pretreatment with WAY100635 attenuated CBD effects. Seven days after predator exposure 5HT1A mRNA expression was up regulated in the frontal cortex and hippocampus. CBD and paroxetine failed to prevent this effect. No change in BDNF expression was found. In conclusion, predator exposure promotes long-lasting up-regulation of 5HT1A receptor gene expression in the hippocampus and frontal cortex. Repeated CBD administration prevents the long-lasting anxiogenic effects observed after predator exposure probably by facilitating 5HT1A receptors neurotransmission. Our results suggest that CBD has beneficial potential for PTSD treatment and that 5HT1A receptors could be a therapeutic target in this disorder. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.