17 resultados para Bankruptcy prediction methods

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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Rapid in vitro methods for measuring digestibility may be useful in analysing aqua feeds if the extent and limits of their application are clearly defined. The pH-stat protein digestibility routine with shrimp hepatopancreas enzymes was previously related to apparent protein digestibility with juvenile Litopenaeus vannamei fed diets containing different protein ingredients. The potential of the method to predict culture performance of shrimp fed six commercial feeds (T3, T4, T5, T6, T7 and T8) with 350 g kg(-1) declared crude-protein content was assessed. The consistency of results obtained using hepatopancreas enzyme extracts from either pond or clear water-raised shrimp was further verified in terms of reproducibility and possible diet history effects upon in vitro outputs. Shrimps were previously acclimated and then maintained over 56 days (initial mean weight 3.28 g) on each diet in 500-L tanks at 114 ind m(-2), clear water closed system with continuous renewal and mechanical filtering (50 mu m), with four replicates per treatment. Feeds were offered four times daily (six days a week) delivered in trays at feeding rates ranging from 4.0% to 7.0% of stocked shrimp biomass. Feed was accessible to shrimp 4 h daily for 1-h feeding period after which uneaten feed was recovered. Growth and survival were determined every 14 days from a sample of 16 individuals per tank. Water quality was monitored daily (pH, temperature and salinity) and managed by water back flushing filter cleaning every 7-10 days. Feeds were analysed for crude protein, gross energy, amino acids and pepsin digestibility. In vitro pH-stat degree of protein hydrolysis (DH%) was determined for each feed using hepatopancreas enzyme extracts from experimental (clear water) or pond-raised shrimp. Feeds resulted in significant differences in shrimp performance (P < 0.05) as seen by the differences in growth rates (0.56-0.98 g week(-1)), final weight and feed conversion ratio (FCR). Shrimp performance and in vitro DH% with pond-raised shrimp enzymes showed significant correlation (P < 0.05) for yield (R-2 = 0.72), growth rates (R-2 = 0.72-0.80) and FCR (R-2 = -0.67). Other feed attributes (protein : energy ratio, amino acids, true protein, non-protein nitrogen contents and in vitro pepsin digestibility) showed none or limited correlation with shrimp culture performance. Additional correlations were found between growth rates and methionine (R-2 = 0.73), FCR and histidine (R-2 = -0.60), and DH% and methionine or methionine+cystine feed contents (R-2 = 0.67-0.92). pH-stat assays with shrimp enzymes generated reproducible DH% results with either pond (CV <= 6.5%) or clear water (CV <= 8.5%) hepatopancreas enzyme sources. Moreover, correlations between shrimp growth rates and feed DH% were significant regardless of the enzyme origin (pond or clear water-raised shrimp) and showed consistent R-2 values. Results suggest the feasibility of using standardized hepatopancreas enzyme extracts for in vitro protein digestibility.

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Objectives: Associations of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA), commuting and total physical activity with inflammatory markers, insulin resistance and metabolic profile in individuals at high cardiometabolic risk were investigated. Design: This was a cross-sectional study. Methods: A total of 193 prediabetic adults were compared according to physical activity levels measured by the international physical activity questionnaire; p for trend and logistic regression was employed. Results: The most active subset showed lower BMI and abdominal circumference, reaching significance only for LTPA (p for trend = 0.02). Lipid profile improved with increased physical activity levels. Interleukin-6 decreased with increased total physical activity and LTPA (p for trend = 0.02 and 0.03, respectively), while adiponectin increased in more active subsets for LTPA (p for trend = 0.03). Elevation in adjusted OR for hypercholesterolemia was significant for lower LTPA durations (p for trend = 0.04). High apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A ratio was inversely associated with LTPA, commuting and total physical activity. Increase in adjusted OR for insulin resistance was found from the highest to the lowest category of LTPA (p for trend = 0.04) but significance disappeared after adjustments for BMI and energy intake. No association of increased C-reactive protein with physical activity domains was observed. Conclusions: In general, the associations of LTPA, but not commuting or total physical activity, with markers of cardiometabolic risk reinforces the importance of initiatives to increase this domain in programs for the prevention of lifestyle-related diseases. (C) 2012 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Introduction: The widespread screening programs prompted a decrease in prostate cancer stage at diagnosis, and active surveillance is an option for patients who may harbor clinically insignificant prostate cancer (IPC). Pathologists include the possibility of an IPC in their reports based on the Gleason score and tumor volume. This study determined the accuracy of pathological data in the identification of IPC in radical prostatectomy (RP) specimens. Materials and Methods: Of 592 radical prostatectomy specimens examined in our laboratory from 2001 to 2010, 20 patients harbored IPC and exhibited biopsy findings suggestive of IPC. These biopsy features served as the criteria to define patients with potentially insignificant tumor in this population. The results of the prostate biopsies and surgical specimens of the 592 patients were compared. Results: The twenty patients who had IPC in both biopsy and RP were considered real positive cases. All patients were divided into groups based on their diagnoses following RP: true positives (n = 20), false positives (n = 149), true negatives (n = 421), false negatives (n = 2). The accuracy of the pathological data alone for the prediction of IPC was 91.4%, the sensitivity was 91% and the specificity was 74%. Conclusion: The identification of IPC using pathological data exclusively is accurate, and pathologists should suggest this in their reports to aid surgeons, urologists and radiotherapists to decide the best treatment for their patients.

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Objective: To ascertain incidence and predictors of new permanent pacemaker (PPM) following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) with the self-expanding aortic bioprosthesis. Background: TAVI with the Medtronic Corevalve (MCV) Revalving System (Medtronic, Minneapolis, MN) has been associated with important post-procedural conduction abnormalities and frequent need for PPM. Methods: Overall, 73 consecutive patients with severe symptomatic AS underwent TAVI with the MCV at two institutions; 10 patients with previous pacemaker and 3 patients with previous aortic valve replacement were excluded for this analysis. Clinical, echocardiographic, and procedural data were collected prospectively in a dedicated database. A standard 12-lead ECG was recorded in all patients at baseline, after the procedure and predischarge. Decision to implant PPM was taken according to current guidelines. Logistic multivariable modeling was applied to identify independent predictors of PPM at discharge. Results: Patients exhibited high-risk features as evidenced by advanced age (mean = 82.1 +/- 6.2 years) and high surgical scores (logistic EuroSCORE 23.0 +/- 12.8%, STS score 9.4 +/- 6.9%). The incidence of new PPM was 28.3%. Interventricular septum thickness and logistic Euroscore were the baseline independent predictors of PPM. When procedural variables were included, the independent predictors of PPM were interventricular septum thickness (OR 0.52; 95% CI 0.320.85) and the distance between noncoronary cusp and the distal edge of the prosthesis (OR 1.37; 95% CI 1.031.83). Conclusions: Conduction abnormalities are frequently observed after TAVI with self-expandable bioprosthesis and definitive pacing is required in about a third of the patients, with a clear association with depth of implant and small interventricular septum thickness. (c) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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Objectives. Verify the influence of different filler distributions on the subcritical crack growth (SCG) susceptibility, Weibull parameters (m and sigma(0)) and longevity estimated by the strength-probability-time (SPT) diagram of experimental resin composites. Methods. Four composites were prepared, each one containing 59 vol% of glass powder with different filler sizes (d(50) = 0.5; 0.9; 1.2 and 1.9 mu m) and distributions. Granulometric analyses of glass powders were done by a laser diffraction particle size analyzer (Sald-7001, Shimadzu, USA). SCG parameters (n and sigma(f0)) were determined by dynamic fatigue (10(-2) to 10(2) MPa/s) using a biaxial flexural device (12 x 1.2 mm; n = 10). Twenty extra specimens of each composite were tested at 10(0) MPa/s to determine m and sigma(0). Specimens were stored in water at 37 degrees C for 24 h. Fracture surfaces were analyzed under SEM. Results. In general, the composites with broader filler distribution (C0.5 and C1.9) presented better results in terms of SCG susceptibility and longevity. C0.5 and C1.9 presented higher n values (respectively, 31.2 +/- 6.2(a) and 34.7 +/- 7.4(a)). C1.2 (166.42 +/- 0.01(a)) showed the highest and C0.5 (158.40 +/- 0.02(d)) the lowest sigma(f0) value (in MPa). Weibull parameters did not vary significantly (m: 6.6 to 10.6 and sigma(0): 170.6 to 176.4 MPa). Predicted reductions in failure stress (P-f = 5%) for a lifetime of 10 years were approximately 45% for C0.5 and C1.9 and 65% for C0.9 and C1.2. Crack propagation occurred through the polymeric matrix around the fillers and all the fracture surfaces showed brittle fracture features. Significance. Composites with broader granulometric distribution showed higher resistance to SCG and, consequently, higher longevity in vitro. (C) 2012 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The objective of this study was to investigate, in a population of crossbred cattle, the obtainment of the non-additive genetic effects for the characteristics weight at 205 and 390 days and scrotal circumference, and to evaluate the consideration of these effects in the prediction of breeding values of sires using different estimation methodologies. In method 1, the data were pre-adjusted for the non-additive effects obtained by least squares means method in a model that considered the direct additive, maternal and non-additive fixed genetic effects, the direct and total maternal heterozygosities, and epistasis. In method 2, the non-additive effects were considered covariates in genetic model. Genetic values for adjusted and non-adjusted data were predicted considering additive direct and maternal effects, and for weight at 205 days, also the permanent environmental effect, as random effects in the model. The breeding values of the categories of sires considered for the weight characteristic at 205 days were organized in files, in order to verify alterations in the magnitude of the predictions and ranking of animals in the two methods of correction data for the non-additives effects. The non-additive effects were not similar in magnitude and direction in the two estimation methods used, nor for the characteristics evaluated. Pearson and Spearman correlations between breeding values were higher than 0.94, and the use of different methods does not imply changes in the selection of animals.

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In protein databases there is a substantial number of proteins structurally determined but without function annotation. Understanding the relationship between function and structure can be useful to predict function on a large scale. We have analyzed the similarities in global physicochemical parameters for a set of enzymes which were classified according to the four Enzyme Commission (EC) hierarchical levels. Using relevance theory we introduced a distance between proteins in the space of physicochemical characteristics. This was done by minimizing a cost function of the metric tensor built to reflect the EC classification system. Using an unsupervised clustering method on a set of 1025 enzymes, we obtained no relevant clustering formation compatible with EC classification. The distance distributions between enzymes from the same EC group and from different EC groups were compared by histograms. Such analysis was also performed using sequence alignment similarity as a distance. Our results suggest that global structure parameters are not sufficient to segregate enzymes according to EC hierarchy. This indicates that features essential for function are rather local than global. Consequently, methods for predicting function based on global attributes should not obtain high accuracy in main EC classes prediction without relying on similarities between enzymes from training and validation datasets. Furthermore, these results are consistent with a substantial number of studies suggesting that function evolves fundamentally by recruitment, i.e., a same protein motif or fold can be used to perform different enzymatic functions and a few specific amino acids (AAs) are actually responsible for enzyme activity. These essential amino acids should belong to active sites and an effective method for predicting function should be able to recognize them. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The sera of a retrospective cohort (n = 41) composed of children with well characterized cow's milk allergy collected from multiple visits were analyzed using a protein microarray system measuring four classes of immunoglobulins. The frequency of the visits, age and gender distribution reflected real situation faced by the clinicians at a pediatric reference center for food allergy in 530 Paulo, Brazil. The profiling array results have shown that total IgG and IgA share similar specificity whilst IgM and in particular IgE are distantly related. The correlation of specificity of IgE and IgA is variable amongst the patients and this relationship cannot be used to predict atopy or the onset of tolerance to milk. The array profiling technique has corroborated the clinical selection criteria for this cohort albeit it clearly suggested that 4 out of the 41 patients might have allergies other than milk origin. There was also a good correlation between the array data and ImmunoCAP results, casein in particular. By using qualitative and quantitative multivariate analysis routines it was possible to produce validated statistical models to predict with reasonable accuracy the onset of tolerance to milk proteins. If expanded to larger study groups, the array profiling in combination with the multivariate techniques show potential to improve the prognostic of milk allergic patients. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Introduction: Computerizd tomography (CT) is the gold standard for the evaluation of intra- (IAF) and total (TAF) abdominal fat; however, the high cost of the procedure and exposure to radiation limit its routine use. Objective: To develop equations that utilize anthropometric measures for the estimate of IAF and TAF in obese women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Methods: The weight, height, BMI, and abdominal (AC), waist (WC), chest (CC), and neck (NC) circumferences of thirty obese women with PCOS were measured, and their IAF and TAF were analyzed by CT. Results: The anthropometric variables AC, CC, and NC were chosen for the TAF linear regression model because they were better correlated with the fat deposited in this region. The model proposed for TAF (predicted) was: 4.63725 + 0.01483 x AC - 0.00117 x NC - 0.00177 x CC (R-2 = 0.78); and the model proposed for IAF was: IAF (predicted) = 1.88541 + 0.01878 x WC + 0.05687 x NC - 0.01529 x CC (R-2 = 0.51). AC was the only independent predictor of TAF (p < 0.01). Conclusion: The equations proposed showed good correlation with the real value measured by CT, and can be used in clinical practice. (Nutr Hosp. 2012;27:1662-1666) DOI:10.3305/nh.2012.27.5.5933

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Background: The double burden of obesity and underweight is increasing in developing countries and simple methods for the assessment of fat mass in children are needed. Aim: To develop and validate a new anthropometric predication equation for assessment of fat mass in children. Subjects and methods: Body composition was assessed in 145 children aged 9.8 +/- 1.3 (SD) years from Sao Paulo, Brazil using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) and skinfold measurements. The study sample was divided into development and validation sub-sets to develop a new prediction equation for FM (PE). Results: Using multiple linear regression analyses, the best equation for predicting FM (R-2 - 0.77) included body weight, triceps skinfold, height, gender and age as independent variables. When cross-validated, the new PE was valid in this sample (R-2 = 0.80), while previously published equations were not. Conclusion: The PE was more valid for Brazilian children that existing equations, but further studies are needed to assess the validity of this PE in other populations.

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Objectives: To integrate data from two-dimensional echocardiography (2D ECHO), three-dimensional echocardiography (3D ECHO), and tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) for prediction of left ventricular (LV) reverse remodeling (LVRR) after cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). It was also compared the evaluation of cardiac dyssynchrony by TDI and 3D ECHO. Methods: Twenty-four consecutive patients with heart failure, sinus rhythm, QRS = 120 msec, functional class III or IV and LV ejection fraction (LVEF) = 0.35 underwent CRT. 2D ECHO, 3D ECHO with systolic dyssynchrony index (SDI) analysis, and TDI were performed before, 3 and 6 months after CRT. Cardiac dyssynchrony analyses by TDI and SDI were compared with the Pearson's correlation test. Before CRT, a univariate analysis of baseline characteristics was performed for the construction of a logistic regression model to identify the best predictors of LVRR. Results: After 3 months of CRT, there was a moderate correlation between TDI and SDI (r = 0.52). At other time points, there was no strong correlation. Nine of twenty-four (38%) patients presented with LVRR 6 months after CRT. After logistic regression analysis, SDI (SDI > 11%) was the only independent factor in the prediction of LVRR 6 months of CRT (sensitivity = 0.89 and specificity = 0.73). After construction of receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, an equation was established to predict LVRR: LVRR =-0.4LVDD (mm) + 0.5LVEF (%) + 1.1SDI (%), with responders presenting values >0 (sensitivity = 0.67 and specificity = 0.87). Conclusions: In this study, there was no strong correlation between TDI and SDI. An equation is proposed for the prediction of LVRR after CRT. Although larger trials are needed to validate these findings, this equation may be useful to candidates for CRT. (Echocardiography 2012;29:678-687)

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Objective: Sepsis is a common condition encountered in hospital environments. There is no effective treatment for sepsis, and it remains an important cause of death at intensive care units. This study aimed to discuss some methods that are available in clinics, and tests that have been recently developed for the diagnosis of sepsis. Methods: A systematic review was performed through the analysis of the following descriptors: sepsis, diagnostic methods, biological markers, and cytokines. Results: The deleterious effects of sepsis are caused by an imbalance between the invasiveness of the pathogen and the ability of the host to mount an effective immune response. Consequently, the host's immune surveillance fails to eliminate the pathogen, allowing it to spread. Moreover, there is a pro-inflammatory mediator release, inappropriate activation of the coagulation and complement cascades, leading to dysfunction of multiple organs and systems. The difficulty achieve total recovery of the patient is explainable. There is an increased incidence of sepsis worldwide due to factors such as aging population, larger number of surgeries, and number of microorganisms resistant to existing antibiotics. Conclusion: The search for new diagnostic markers associated with increased risk of sepsis development and molecules that can be correlated to certain steps of sepsis is becoming necessary. This would allow for earlier diagnosis, facilitate patient prognosis characterization, and prediction of possible evolution of each case. All other markers are regrettably constrained to research units.

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Current scientific applications have been producing large amounts of data. The processing, handling and analysis of such data require large-scale computing infrastructures such as clusters and grids. In this area, studies aim at improving the performance of data-intensive applications by optimizing data accesses. In order to achieve this goal, distributed storage systems have been considering techniques of data replication, migration, distribution, and access parallelism. However, the main drawback of those studies is that they do not take into account application behavior to perform data access optimization. This limitation motivated this paper which applies strategies to support the online prediction of application behavior in order to optimize data access operations on distributed systems, without requiring any information on past executions. In order to accomplish such a goal, this approach organizes application behaviors as time series and, then, analyzes and classifies those series according to their properties. By knowing properties, the approach selects modeling techniques to represent series and perform predictions, which are, later on, used to optimize data access operations. This new approach was implemented and evaluated using the OptorSim simulator, sponsored by the LHC-CERN project and widely employed by the scientific community. Experiments confirm this new approach reduces application execution time in about 50 percent, specially when handling large amounts of data.

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Objectives To evaluate the accuracy and probabilities of different fetal ultrasound parameters to predict neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods Between January 2004 and December 2010, we evaluated prospectively 108 fetuses with isolated CDH (82 left-sided and 26 right-sided). The following parameters were evaluated: gestational age at diagnosis, side of the diaphragmatic defect, presence of polyhydramnios, presence of liver herniated into the fetal thorax (liver-up), lung-to-head ratio (LHR) and observed/expected LHR (o/e-LHR), observed/expected contralateral and total fetal lung volume (o/e-ContFLV and o/e-TotFLV) ratios, ultrasonographic fetal lung volume/fetal weight ratio (US-FLW), observed/expected contralateral and main pulmonary artery diameter (o/e-ContPA and o/eMPA) ratios and the contralateral vascularization index (Cont-VI). The outcomes were neonatal death and severe postnatal pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Results Neonatal mortality was 64.8% (70/108). Severe PAH was diagnosed in 68 (63.0%) cases, of which 63 died neonatally (92.6%) (P < 0.001). Gestational age at diagnosis, side of the defect and polyhydramnios were not associated with poor outcome (P > 0.05). LHR, o/eLHR, liver-up, o/e-ContFLV, o/e-TotFLV, US-FLW, o/eContPA, o/e-MPA and Cont-VI were associated with both neonatal death and severe postnatal PAH (P < 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristics curves indicated that measuring total lung volumes (o/e-TotFLV and US-FLW) was more accurate than was considering only the contralateral lung sizes (LHR, o/e-LHR and o/e-ContFLV; P < 0.05), and Cont-VI was the most accurate ultrasound parameter to predict neonatal death and severe PAH (P < 0.001). Conclusions Evaluating total lung volumes is more accurate than is measuring only the contralateral lung size. Evaluating pulmonary vascularization (Cont-VI) is the most accurate predictor of neonatal outcome. Estimating the probability of survival and severe PAH allows classification of cases according to prognosis. Copyright (C) 2011 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Objectives Predictors of adverse outcomes following myocardial infarction (MI) are well established; however, little is known about what predicts enzymatically estimated infarct size in patients with acute ST-elevation MI. The Complement And Reduction of INfarct size after Angioplasty or Lytics trials of pexelizumab used creatine kinase (CK)-MB area under the curve to determine infarct size in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or fibrinolysis. Methods Prediction of infarct size was carried out by measuring CK-MB area under the curve in patients with ST-segment elevation MI treated with reperfusion therapy from January 2000 to April 2002. Infarct size was calculated in 1622 patients (PCI=817; fibrinolysis=805). Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between baseline demographics, total ST-segment elevation, index angiographic findings (PCI group), and binary outcome of CK-MB area under the curve greater than 3000 ng/ml. Results Large infarcts occurred in 63% (515) of the PCI group and 69% (554) of the fibrinolysis group. Independent predictors of large infarcts differed depending on mode of reperfusion. In PCI, male sex, no prior coronary revascularization and diabetes, decreased systolic blood pressure, sum of ST-segment elevation, total (angiographic) occlusion, and nonright coronary artery culprit artery were independent predictors of larger infarcts (C index=0.73). In fibrinolysis, younger age, decreased heart rate, white race, no history of arrhythmia, increased time to fibrinolytic therapy in patients treated up to 2 h after symptom onset, and sum of ST-segment elevation were independently associated with a larger infarct size (C index=0.68). Conclusion Clinical and patient data can be used to predict larger infarcts on the basis of CK-MB quantification. These models may be helpful in designing future trials and in guiding the use of novel pharmacotherapies aimed at limiting infarct size in clinical practice. Coron Artery Dis 23:118-125 (C) 2012 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.