6 resultados para Automatic forecasting

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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Background: This paper addresses the prediction of the free energy of binding of a drug candidate with enzyme InhA associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This problem is found within rational drug design, where interactions between drug candidates and target proteins are verified through molecular docking simulations. In this application, it is important not only to correctly predict the free energy of binding, but also to provide a comprehensible model that could be validated by a domain specialist. Decision-tree induction algorithms have been successfully used in drug-design related applications, specially considering that decision trees are simple to understand, interpret, and validate. There are several decision-tree induction algorithms available for general-use, but each one has a bias that makes it more suitable for a particular data distribution. In this article, we propose and investigate the automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to particular drug-enzyme binding data sets. We investigate the performance of our new method for evaluating binding conformations of different drug candidates to InhA, and we analyze our findings with respect to decision tree accuracy, comprehensibility, and biological relevance. Results: The empirical analysis indicates that our method is capable of automatically generating decision-tree induction algorithms that significantly outperform the traditional C4.5 algorithm with respect to both accuracy and comprehensibility. In addition, we provide the biological interpretation of the rules generated by our approach, reinforcing the importance of comprehensible predictive models in this particular bioinformatics application. Conclusions: We conclude that automatically designing a decision-tree algorithm tailored to molecular docking data is a promising alternative for the prediction of the free energy from the binding of a drug candidate with a flexible-receptor.

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The attributes describing a data set may often be arranged in meaningful subsets, each of which corresponds to a different aspect of the data. An unsupervised algorithm (SCAD) that simultaneously performs fuzzy clustering and aspects weighting was proposed in the literature. However, SCAD may fail and halt given certain conditions. To fix this problem, its steps are modified and then reordered to reduce the number of parameters required to be set by the user. In this paper we prove that each step of the resulting algorithm, named ASCAD, globally minimizes its cost-function with respect to the argument being optimized. The asymptotic analysis of ASCAD leads to a time complexity which is the same as that of fuzzy c-means. A hard version of the algorithm and a novel validity criterion that considers aspect weights in order to estimate the number of clusters are also described. The proposed method is assessed over several artificial and real data sets.

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Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.

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This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

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In this manuscript, an automatic setup for screening of microcystins in surface waters by employing photometric detection is described. Microcystins are toxins delivered by cyanobacteria within an aquatic environment, which have been considered strongly poisonous for humans. For that reason, the World Health Organization (WHO) has proposed a provisional guideline value for drinking water of 1 mu g L-1. In this work, we developed an automated equipment setup, which allows the screening of water for concentration of microcystins below 0.1 mu g V. The photometric method was based on the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and the analytical signal was monitored at 458 nm using a homemade LED-based photometer. The proposed system was employed for the detection of microcystins in rivers and lakes waters. Accuracy was assessed by processing samples using a reference method and applying the paired t-test between results. No significant difference at the 95% confidence level was observed. Other useful features including a linear response ranging from 0.05 up to 2.00 mu g L-1 (R-2 =0.999) and a detection limit of 0.03 mu g L-1 microcystins were achieved. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Abstract Background Atherosclerosis causes millions of deaths, annually yielding billions in expenses round the world. Intravascular Optical Coherence Tomography (IVOCT) is a medical imaging modality, which displays high resolution images of coronary cross-section. Nonetheless, quantitative information can only be obtained with segmentation; consequently, more adequate diagnostics, therapies and interventions can be provided. Since it is a relatively new modality, many different segmentation methods, available in the literature for other modalities, could be successfully applied to IVOCT images, improving accuracies and uses. Method An automatic lumen segmentation approach, based on Wavelet Transform and Mathematical Morphology, is presented. The methodology is divided into three main parts. First, the preprocessing stage attenuates and enhances undesirable and important information, respectively. Second, in the feature extraction block, wavelet is associated with an adapted version of Otsu threshold; hence, tissue information is discriminated and binarized. Finally, binary morphological reconstruction improves the binary information and constructs the binary lumen object. Results The evaluation was carried out by segmenting 290 challenging images from human and pig coronaries, and rabbit iliac arteries; the outcomes were compared with the gold standards made by experts. The resultant accuracy was obtained: True Positive (%) = 99.29 ± 2.96, False Positive (%) = 3.69 ± 2.88, False Negative (%) = 0.71 ± 2.96, Max False Positive Distance (mm) = 0.1 ± 0.07, Max False Negative Distance (mm) = 0.06 ± 0.1. Conclusions In conclusion, by segmenting a number of IVOCT images with various features, the proposed technique showed to be robust and more accurate than published studies; in addition, the method is completely automatic, providing a new tool for IVOCT segmentation.