Analysis of NDVI time series using cross-correlation and forecasting methods for monitoring sugarcane fields in Brazil

Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.

Microbiological quality and safety of minimally processed vegetables marketed in Campinas, SP-Brazil, as assessed by traditional and alternative methods

In this study, a total of 172 samples of minimally processed vegetables (MPV) were collected from supermarkets in the city of Campinas, Brazil. The MPV were analyzed using traditional and/or alternative methods for total aerobic mesophilic bacteria, total coliforms, Escherichia coil, coagulase positive staphylococci, Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes. All the MPV analyzed presented populations of aerobic mesophilic microorganisms and total coliforms were >4 log(10) CFU/g and 1.0-3.4 log(10) CFU/g, respectively. E. coil was enumerated in only 10 samples out of 172 collected, while none of the 172 samples of MPV presented contamination by coagulase positive Staphylococcus (<10(1) CFU/g). Among the four methods used for detection of Salmonella in MPV (Vidas, 1,2 Test, Reveal, and Traditional), when Reveal was used a total of 29 positive samples were reported. For L monocytogenes, the four methods tested (Vidas, Vip, Reveal, and traditional) performed similarly. The presence of Salmonella and L monocytogenes in MPV was confirmed in one (watercress) and two samples (watercress and escarole), respectively. In conclusion, it has been observed that the microbiological quality of MPV commercialized in Campinas is generally satisfactory. Besides, the choice of microbiological method should be based not only on resource and time issues, but also on parameters such as sensitivity and specificity for the specific foods under ahalysis. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surveillance using serological and molecular methods for the detection of infectious agents in captive Brazilian neotropic and exotic felids

The aim of the current study was to investigate the exposure of captive wild felids to various infectious pathogens using serological and molecular methods. One hundred and fifty-nine neotropic felids and 51 exotic felids from 28 captive settings in Brazil were tested. While antibodies against Feline parvovirus and Feline coronavirus (FCoV), Feline calicivirus and Bartonella spp. were frequently detected by serologic tests, antibodies against Felid herpesvirus 1 or infection with hemotropic mycoplasmas were less prevalent. Serologic evidence of exposure to Ehrlichia spp., Feline immunodeficiency virus, and Feline leukemia virus (FeLV) was detected rarely, and infections with FeLV, Ehrlichia spp., and Cytauxzoon spp. were found infrequently. The detected Bartonella sequence was molecularly similar to B. koehlerae and B. henselae; for Cytauxzoon, the sequence resembled those from domestic cats. No Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Theileria spp. infections were detected. The positive test results varied significantly among different facilities and species. Additionally, FCoV seropositivity was more prevalent in captivity than in free-ranging populations. Results suggest that testing is appropriate prior to relocation of felids.

Performance of fluorescence-based and conventional methods of occlusal caries detection in primary molars - an in vitro study

International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry 2012; 22: 459466 Aim. This in vitro study aimed to test the performance of fluorescence-based methods in detecting occlusal caries lesions in primary molars compared to conventional methods. Design. Two examiners assessed 113 sites on 77 occlusal surfaces of primary molars using three fluorescence devices: DIAGNOdent (LF), DIAGNOdent pen (LFpen), and fluorescence camera (VistaProof-FC). Visual inspection (ICDAS) and radiographic methods were also evaluated. One examiner repeated the evaluations after one month. As reference standard method, the lesion depth was determined after sectioning and evaluation in stereomicroscope. The area under the ROC curve (Az), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the methods were calculated at enamel (D1) and dentine caries (D3) lesions thresholds. The intra and interexaminer reproducibility were calculated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and kappa statistics. Results. At D1, visual inspection presented higher sensitivities (0.970.99) but lower specificities (0.180.25). At D3, all the methods demonstrated similar performance (Az values around 0.90). Visual and radiographic methods showed a slightly higher specificity (values higher than 0.96) than the fluorescence based ones (values around 0.88). In general, all methods presented high reproducibility (ICC higher than 0.79). Conclusions. Although fluorescence-based and conventional methods present similar performance in detecting occlusal caries lesions in primary teeth, visual inspection alone seems to be sufficient to be used in clinical practice.

Definite integrals and operational methods

An operational method, already employed to formulate a generalization of the Ramanujan master theorem, is applied to the evaluation of integrals of various types. This technique provides a very flexible and powerful tool yielding new results encompassing different aspects of the special function theory. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigation of the Goias Alkaline Province, Central Brazil: Application of gravity and magnetic methods

We investigate the strong magnetic and gravity anomalies of the Goias Alkaline Province (GAP), a region of Late Cretaceous alkaline magmatism along the northern border of the Parana Basin, Brazil. The alkaline complexes (eight of which are present in outcrops, two others inferred from magnetic signals) are characterized by a series of small intrusions forming almost circular magnetic and gravimetric anomalies varying from -4000 to +6000 nT and from -10 to +40 mGal, respectively. We used the Aneuler method and Analytical Signal Amplitude to obtain depth and geometry for mapped sources from the magnetic anomaly data. These results were used as the reference models in the 3D gravity inversion. The 3D inversion results show that the alkaline intrusions have depths of 10-12 km. The intrusions in the northern GAP follow two alignments and have different sizes. In the anomaly magnetic map, dominant guidelines correlate strongly with the extensional regimes that correlate with the rise of alkaline magmatism. The emplacement of these intrusions marks mechanical discontinuities and zones of weakness in the upper crust. According to the 3D inversion results, those intrusions are located within the upper crust (from the surface to 18 km depth) and have spheres as the preferable geometry. Such spherical shapes are more consistent with magmatic chambers instead of plug intrusions. The Registro do Araguaia anomaly (similar to 15 by 25 km) has a particular magnetic signature that indicates that the top is deeper than 1500 m. North of this circular anomaly are lineaments with structural indices indicating contacts on their edges and dikes/sills in the interiors. Results of 3D inversion of magnetic and gravity data suggest that the Registro do Araguaia is the largest body in the area, reaching 18 km depth and indicating a circular layered structure. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Review of the Brazilian NBR 15575 Standard: Applying the Simulation and Simplified Methods for Evaluating a Social House Thermal Performance

The new Brazilian ABNT NBR 15575 Standard (the ―Standard‖) recommends two methods for analyzing housing thermal performance: a simplified and a computational simulation method. The aim of this paper is to evaluate both methods and the coherence between each. For this, the thermal performance of a low-cost single-family house was evaluated through the application of the procedures prescribed by the Standard. To accomplish this study, the EnergyPlus software was selected. Comparative analyses of the house with varying envelope U-values and solar absorptance of external walls were performed in order to evaluate the influence of these parameters on the results. The results have shown limitations in the current Standard computational simulation method, due to different aspects: weather files, lack of consideration of passive strategies, and inconsistency with the simplified method. Therefore, this research indicates that there are some aspects to be improved in this Standard, so it could better represent the real thermal performance of social housing in Brazil.

Comparison of extraction and transesterification methods on the determination of the fatty acid contents of three Brazilian seaweed species

Seaweeds are photosynthetic organisms important to their ecosystem and constitute a source of compounds with several different applications in the pharmaceutical, cosmetic and biotechnology industries, such as triacylglycerols, which can be converted to fatty acid methyl esters that make up biodiesel, an alternative source of fuel applied in economic important areas. This study evaluates the fatty acid profiles and concentrations of three Brazilian seaweed species, Hypnea musciformis (Wulfen) J.V. Lamouroux (Rhodophya), Sargassum cymosum C. Agardh (Heterokontophyta), and Ulva lactuca L. (Chlorophyta), comparing three extraction methods (Bligh & Dyer - B&D; AOAC Official Methods - AOM; and extraction with methanol and ultrasound - EMU) and two transesterification methods (7% BF3 in methanol - BF3; and 5% HCl in methanol - HCl). The fatty acid contents of the three species of seaweeds were significantly different when extracted and transesterified by the different methods. Moreover, the best method for one species was not the same for the other species. The best extraction and transesterification methods for H. musciformis, S. cymosum and U. lactuca were, respectively, AOM-HCl, B&D-BF3 and B&D-BF3/B&D-HCl. These results point to a matrix effect and the method used for the analysis of the fatty acid content of different organisms should be selected carefully.

GEDI: a user-friendly toolbox for analysis of large-scale gene expression data

Abstract Background Several mathematical and statistical methods have been proposed in the last few years to analyze microarray data. Most of those methods involve complicated formulas, and software implementations that require advanced computer programming skills. Researchers from other areas may experience difficulties when they attempting to use those methods in their research. Here we present an user-friendly toolbox which allows large-scale gene expression analysis to be carried out by biomedical researchers with limited programming skills. Results Here, we introduce an user-friendly toolbox called GEDI (Gene Expression Data Interpreter), an extensible, open-source, and freely-available tool that we believe will be useful to a wide range of laboratories, and to researchers with no background in Mathematics and Computer Science, allowing them to analyze their own data by applying both classical and advanced approaches developed and recently published by Fujita et al. Conclusion GEDI is an integrated user-friendly viewer that combines the state of the art SVR, DVAR and SVAR algorithms, previously developed by us. It facilitates the application of SVR, DVAR and SVAR, further than the mathematical formulas present in the corresponding publications, and allows one to better understand the results by means of available visualizations. Both running the statistical methods and visualizing the results are carried out within the graphical user interface, rendering these algorithms accessible to the broad community of researchers in Molecular Biology.

Respiratory rehabilitation: a physiotherapy approach to the control of asthma symptoms and anxiety

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to verify the degree of anxiety, respiratory distress, and health-related quality of life in a group of asthmatic patients who have experienced previous panic attacks. Additionally, we evaluated if a respiratory physiotherapy program (breathing retraining) improved both asthma and panic disorder symptoms, resulting in an improvement in the health-related quality of life of asthmatics. METHODS: Asthmatic individuals were assigned to a chest physiotherapy group that included a breathing retraining program held once a week for three months or a paired control group that included a Subtle Touch program. All patients were assessed using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders IV, the Sheehan Anxiety Scale, the Quality of Life Questionnaire, and spirometry parameter measurements. RESULTS: Both groups had high marks for panic disorder and agoraphobia, which limited their quality of life. The Breathing Retraining Group program improved the clinical control of asthma, reduced panic symptoms and agoraphobia, decreased patient scores on the Sheehan Anxiety Scale, and improved their quality of life. Spirometry parameters were unchanged. CONCLUSION: Breathing retraining improves the clinical control of asthma and anxiety symptoms and the health-related quality of life in asthmatic patients.

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Extractive summarization using complex networks and syntactic dependency

The realization that statistical physics methods can be applied to analyze written texts represented as complex networks has led to several developments in natural language processing, including automatic summarization and evaluation of machine translation. Most importantly, so far only a few metrics of complex networks have been used and therefore there is ample opportunity to enhance the statistics-based methods as new measures of network topology and dynamics are created. In this paper, we employ for the first time the metrics betweenness, vulnerability and diversity to analyze written texts in Brazilian Portuguese. Using strategies based on diversity metrics, a better performance in automatic summarization is achieved in comparison to previous work employing complex networks. With an optimized method the Rouge score (an automatic evaluation method used in summarization) was 0.5089, which is the best value ever achieved for an extractive summarizer with statistical methods based on complex networks for Brazilian Portuguese. Furthermore, the diversity metric can detect keywords with high precision, which is why we believe it is suitable to produce good summaries. It is also shown that incorporating linguistic knowledge through a syntactic parser does enhance the performance of the automatic summarizers, as expected, but the increase in the Rouge score is only minor. These results reinforce the suitability of complex network methods for improving automatic summarizers in particular, and treating text in general. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probing the anomalous extinction of four young star clusters: the use of colour-excess, main-sequence fitting and fractal analysis

Aims. We studied four young star clusters to characterise their anomalous extinction or variable reddening and asses whether they could be due to contamination by either dense clouds or circumstellar effects. Methods. We evaluated the extinction law (R-V) by adopting two methods: (i) the use of theoretical expressions based on the colour-excess of stars with known spectral type; and (ii) the analysis of two-colour diagrams, where the slope of the observed colour distribution was compared to the normal distribution. An algorithm to reproduce the zero-age main-sequence (ZAMS) reddened colours was developed to derive the average visual extinction (A(V)) that provides the closest fit to the observational data. The structure of the clouds was evaluated by means of a statistical fractal analysis, designed to compare their geometric structure with the spatial distribution of the cluster members. Results. The cluster NGC 6530 is the only object of our sample affected by anomalous extinction. On average, the other clusters suffer normal extinction, but several of their members, mainly in NGC 2264, seem to have high R-V, probably because of circumstellar effects. The ZAMS fitting provides A(V) values that are in good agreement with those found in the literature. The fractal analysis shows that NGC 6530 has a centrally concentrated distribution of stars that differs from the substructures found in the density distribution of the cloud projected in the A(V) map, suggesting that the original cloud was changed by the cluster formation. However, the fractal dimension and statistical parameters of Berkeley 86, NGC 2244, and NGC 2264 indicate that there is a good cloud-cluster correlation, when compared to other works based on an artificial distribution of points.

Reliability and construct validity of the karate-specific aerobic test

Chaabene, H, Hachana, Y, Franchini, E, Mkaouer, B, Montassar, M, and Chamari, K. Reliability and construct validity of the karate-specific aerobic test. J Strength Cond Res 26(12): 3454-3460, 2012-The aim of this study was to examine absolute and relative reliabilities and external responsiveness of the Karate-specific aerobic test (KSAT). This study comprised 43 male karatekas, 19 of them participated in the first study to establish test-retest reliability and 40, selected on the bases of their karate experience and level of practice, participated in the second study to identify external responsiveness of the KSAT. The latter group was divided into 2 categories: national-level group (G(n)) and regional-level group (Gr). Analysis showed excellent test-retest reliability of time to exhaustion (TE), with intraclass correlation coefficient ICC(3,1) >0.90, standard error of measurement (SEM) <5%: (3.2%) and mean difference (bias) +/- the 95% limits of agreement: -9.5 +/- 78.8 seconds. There was a significant difference between test-retest session in peak lactate concentration (Peak [La]) (9.12 +/- 2.59 vs. 8.05 +/- 2.67 mmol.L-1; p < 0.05) but not in peak heart rate (HRpeak) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) (196 +/- 9 vs. 194 +/- 9 b.min(-1) and 7.6 +/- 0.93 vs. 7.8 +/- 1.15; p > 0.05), respectively. National-level karate athletes (1,032 +/- 101 seconds) were better than regional level (841 +/- 134 seconds) on TE performance during KSAT (p < 0.001). Thus, KSAT provided good external responsiveness. The area under the receiver operator characteristics curve was >0.70 (0.86; confidence interval 95%: 0.72-0.95). Significant difference was detected in Peak [La] between national- (6.09 +/- 1.78 mmol.L-1) and regional-level (8.48 +/- 2.63 mmol.L-1) groups, but not in HRpeak (194 +/- 8 vs. 195 +/- 8 b.min(-1)) and RPE (7.57 +/- 1.15 vs. 7.42 +/- 1.1), respectively. The result of this study indicates that KSAT provides excellent absolute and relative reliabilities. The KSAT can effectively distinguish karate athletes of different competitive levels. Thus, the KSAT may be suitable for field assessment of aerobic fitness of karate practitioners.

Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.