Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

The structure and resilience of financial market networks

Financial markets can be viewed as a highly complex evolving system that is very sensitive to economic instabilities. The complex organization of the market can be represented in a suitable fashion in terms of complex networks, which can be constructed from stock prices such that each pair of stocks is connected by a weighted edge that encodes the distance between them. In this work, we propose an approach to analyze the topological and dynamic evolution of financial networks based on the stock correlation matrices. An entropy-related measurement is adopted to quantify the robustness of the evolving financial market organization. It is verified that the network topological organization suffers strong variation during financial instabilities and the networks in such periods become less robust. A statistical robust regression model is proposed to quantity the relationship between the network structure and resilience. The obtained coefficients of such model indicate that the average shortest path length is the measurement most related to network resilience coefficient. This result indicates that a collective behavior is observed between stocks during financial crisis. More specifically, stocks tend to synchronize their price evolution, leading to a high correlation between pair of stock prices, which contributes to the increase in distance between them and, consequently, decrease the network resilience. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3683467]

Association between particulate matter air pollution and monthly inhalation and nebulization procedures in Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

The study was designed to investigate the impact of air pollution on monthly inhalation/nebulization procedures in Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, from 2004 to 2010. To assess the relationship between the procedures and particulate matter (PM10) a Bayesian Poisson regression model was used, including a random factor that captured extra-Poisson variability between counts. Particulate matter was associated with the monthly number of inhalation/nebulization procedures, but the inclusion of covariates (temperature, precipitation, and season of the year) suggests a possible confounding effect. Although other studies have linked particulate matter to an increasing number of visits due to respiratory morbidity, the results of this study suggest that such associations should be interpreted with caution.

Diet and the risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium

We investigated the association between diet and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk using data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. The INHANCE pooled data included 22 case-control studies with 14,520 cases and 22,737 controls. Center-specific quartiles among the controls were used for food groups, and frequencies per week were used for single food items. A dietary pattern score combining high fruit and vegetable intake and low red meat intake was created. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the dietary items on the risk of HNC were estimated with a two-stage random-effects logistic regression model. An inverse association was observed for higher-frequency intake of fruit (4th vs. 1st quartile OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.43-0.62, p (trend) < 0.01) and vegetables (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.90, p (trend) = 0.01). Intake of red meat (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.13-1.74, p (trend) = 0.13) and processed meat (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.14-1.65, p (trend) < 0.01) was positively associated with HNC risk. Higher dietary pattern scores, reflecting high fruit/vegetable and low red meat intake, were associated with reduced HNC risk (per score increment OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.84-0.97).

Oral health and access to dental care services in relation to the Health Necessities Index. Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2008

The Health Department of Sao Paulo, Brazil, has developed a Health Necessities Index (HNI) to identify priority areas for providing health assistance. In 2008, a survey of the status of oral health was conducted. The objective of this ecological study was to analyze the status of oral health in relation to the HNI. The variables, stratified by the age of 5, 12 and 15 years old were: percentage of individuals with difficulty of access to dental care services; DMFT and DMFS; prevalence of the need for tooth extraction and treatment of dental caries. Data were analyzed for the 25 Health Technical Supervision Units (HTS). The Statistical Covariance Test was used as well as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression model. A positive correlation was observed between high scores of the HNI and difficulty of access to services. In the HTS with high scores of HNI a higher incidence of dental caries was observed, a greater need for tooth extractions and low caries-free incidence. In order to improve health conditions of the population it is mandatory to prioritize actions in areas of social deprivation.

Independent predictors and a prognostic model for surgical outcome in refractory frontal lobe epilepsy

Purpose: Refractory frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE) remains one of the most challenging surgically remediable epilepsy syndromes. Nevertheless, definition of independent predictors and predictive models of postsurgical seizure outcome remains poorly explored in FLE. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 70 consecutive patients with refractory FLE submitted to surgical treatment at our center from July 1994 to December 2006. Univariate results were submitted to logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards regression to identify isolated risk factors for poor surgical results and to construct predictive models for surgical outcome in FLE. Results: From 70 patients submitted to surgery, 45 patients (64%) had favorable outcome and 37 (47%) became seizure free. Isolated risk factors for poor surgical outcome are expressed in hazard ratio (H.R.) and were time of epilepsy (H.R.=4.2; 95% C.I.=.1.5-11.7; p=0.006), ictal EEG recruiting rhythm (H.R. = 2.9; 95% C.I. = 1.1-7.7; p=0.033); normal MRI (H.R. = 4.8; 95% C.I. = 1.4-16.6; p = 0.012), and MRI with lesion involving eloquent cortex (H.R. = 3.8; 95% C.I. = 1.2-12.0; p = 0.021). Based on these variables and using a logistic regression model we constructed a model that correctly predicted long-term surgical outcome in up to 80% of patients. Conclusion: Among independent risk factors for postsurgical seizure outcome, epilepsy duration is a potentially modifiable factor that could impact surgical outcome in FLE. Early diagnosis, presence of an MRI lesion not involving eloquent cortex, and ictal EEG without recruited rhythm independently predicted favorable outcome in this series. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Why Are Women With Cervical Cancer Not Being Diagnosed in Preinvasive Phase? An Analysis of Risk Factors Using a Hierarchical Model

Objective: To assess the risk factors for delayed diagnosis of uterine cervical lesions. Materials and Methods: This is a case-control study that recruited 178 women at 2 Brazilian hospitals. The cases (n = 74) were composed of women with a late diagnosis of a lesion in the uterine cervix (invasive carcinoma in any stage). The controls (n = 104) were composed of women with cervical lesions diagnosed early on (low-or high-grade intraepithelial lesions). The analysis was performed by means of logistic regression model using a hierarchical model. The socioeconomic and demographic variables were included at level I (distal). Level II (intermediate) included the personal and family antecedents and knowledge about the Papanicolaou test and human papillomavirus. Level III (proximal) encompassed the variables relating to individuals' care for their own health, gynecologic symptoms, and variables relating to access to the health care system. Results: The risk factors for late diagnosis of uterine cervical lesions were age older than 40 years (odds ratio [OR] = 10.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-48.4), not knowing the difference between the Papanicolaou test and gynecological pelvic examinations (OR, = 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-4.9), not thinking that the Papanicolaou test was important (odds ratio [OR], 4.2; 95% CI, 1.3-13.4), and abnormal vaginal bleeding (OR, 15.0; 95% CI, 6.5-35.0). Previous treatment for sexually transmissible disease was a protective factor (OR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8) for delayed diagnosis. Conclusions: Deficiencies in cervical cancer prevention programs in developing countries are not simply a matter of better provision and coverage of Papanicolaou tests. The misconception about the Papanicolaou test is a serious educational problem, as demonstrated by the present study.

Association between particulate matter air pollution and monthly inhalation and nebulization procedures in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil

The study was designed to investigate the impact of air pollution on monthly inhalation/nebulization procedures in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, from 2004 to 2010. To assess the relationship between the procedures and particulate matter (PM10) a Bayesian Poisson regression model was used, including a random factor that captured extra-Poisson variability between counts. Particulate matter was associated with the monthly number of inhalation/nebulization procedures, but the inclusion of covariates (temperature, precipitation, and season of the year) suggests a possible confounding effect. Although other studies have linked particulate matter to an increasing number of visits due to respiratory morbidity, the results of this study suggest that such associations should be interpreted with caution.

Prediction of apparent protein digestibility of ingredients and diets by in vitro pH-stat degree of protein hydrolysis with species-specific enzymes for juvenile Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei

Aquafeed production faces global issues related to availability of feed ingredients. Feed manufacturers require greater flexibility in order to develop nutritional and cost-effective formulations that take into account nutrient content and availability of ingredients. The search for appropriate ingredients requires detailed screening of their potential nutritional value and variability at the industrial level. In vitro digestion of feedstuffs by enzymes extracted from the target species has been correlated with apparent protein digestibility (APD) in fish and shrimp species. The present study verified the relationship between APD and in vitro degree of protein hydrolysis (DH) with Litopenaeus vannamei hepatopancreas enzymes in several different ingredients (n = 26): blood meals, casein, corn gluten meal, crab meal, distiller`s dried grains with solubles, feather meal, fish meals, gelatin, krill meals, poultry by-product meal, soybean meals, squid meals and wheat gluten. The relationship between APD and DH was further verified in diets formulated with these ingredients at 30% inclusion into a reference diet. APD was determined in vivo (30.1 +/- 0.5 degrees C, 32.2 +/- 0.4%.) with juvenile L vannamei (9 to 12 g) after placement of test ingredients into a reference diet (35 g kg(-1) CP: 8.03 g kg(-1) lipid; 2.01 kcal g(-1)) with chromic oxide as the inert marker. In vitro DH was assessed in ingredients and diets with standardized hepatopancreas enzymes extracted from pond-reared shrimp. The DH of ingredients was determined under different assay conditions to check for the most suitable in vitro protocol for APD prediction: different batches of enzyme extracts (HPf5 or HPf6), temperatures (25 or 30 degrees C) and enzyme activity (azocasein): crude protein ratios (4 U: 80 mg CP or 4 U: 40 mg CP). DH was not affected by ingredient proximate composition. APD was significantly correlated to DH in regressions considering either ingredients or diets. The relationships between APD and DH of the ingredients could be suitably adjusted to a Rational Function (y = (a + bx)/(1 + cx + dx2), n = 26. Best in vitro APD predictions were obtained at 25 degrees C, 4 U: 80 mg CP both for ingredients (R(2) = 0.86: P = 0.001) and test diets (R(2) = 0.96; P = 0.007). The regression model including all 26 ingredients generated higher prediction residuals (i.e., predicted APD - determined APD) for corn gluten meal, feather meal. poultry by-product meal and krill flour. The remaining test ingredients presented mean prediction residuals of 3.5 points. A model including only ingredients with APD>80% showed higher prediction precision (R(2) = 0.98: P = 0.000004; n = 20) with average residual of 1.8 points. Predictive models including only ingredients from the same origin (e.g., marine-based, R(2) = 0.98; P = 0.033) also displayed low residuals. Since in vitro techniques have been usually validated through regressions against in vivo APD, the DH predictive capacity may depend on the consistency of the in vivo methodology. Regressions between APD and DH suggested a close relationship between peptide bond breakage by hepatopancreas digestive proteases and the apparent nitrogen assimilation in shrimp, and this may be a useful tool to provide rapid nutritional information. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Behavior problems and prevalence of asthma symptoms among Brazilian children

Objective: Asthma is the most common chronic disease in childhood and has been designated a public health problem due to the increase in its prevalence in recent decades, the amount of health service expenditure it absorbs and an absence of consensus about its etiology. The relationships among psychosocial factors and the occurrence, symptomatology, and severity of asthma have recently been considered. There is still controversy about the association between asthma and a child`s mental health, since the pathways through which this relationship is established are complex and not well researched. This study aims to investigate whether behavior problems are associated with the prevalence of asthma symptoms in a large urban center in Latin America. Methods: It is a cross-section study of 869 children between 6 and 12 years old, residents of Salvador, Brazil. The International Study of Allergy and Asthma in Childhood (ISAAC) instrument was used to evaluate prevalence of asthma symptoms. The Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) was employed to evaluate behavioral problems. Results: 19.26% (n = 212) of the children presented symptoms of asthma. 35% were classified as having clinical behavioral problems. Poisson`s robust regression model demonstrated a statistically significant association between the presence of behavioral problems and asthma symptoms occurrence (PR: 1.43; 95% Cl: 1.10-1.85). Conclusion: These results suggest an association between behavioral problems and pediatric asthma, and support the inclusion of mental health care in the provision of services for asthma morbidity. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

IGFBP7 participates in the reciprocal interaction between acute lymphoblastic leukemia and BM stromal cells and in leukemia resistance to asparaginase

The interaction of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) blasts with bone marrow (BM) stromal cells (BMSCs) has a positive impact on ALL resistance to chemotherapy. We investigated the modulation of a series of putative asparaginase-resistance/sensitivity genes in B-precursor ALL cells upon coculture with BMSCs. Coculture with stromal cells resulted in increased insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-binding protein 7 (IGFBP7) expression by ALL cells. Assays with IGFBP7 knockdown ALL and stromal cell lines, or with addition of recombinant rIGFBP7 (rIGFBP7) to the culture medium, showed that IGFBP7 acts as a positive regulator of ALL and stromal cells growth, and significantly enhances in-vitro resistance of ALL to asparaginase. In these assays, IGFBP7 function occurred mainly in an insulin-and stromal-dependent manner. ALL cells were found to contribute substantially to extracellular IGFBP7 levels in the conditioned coculture medium. Diagnostic BM plasma from children with ALL had higher levels of IGFBP7 than controls. IGFBP7, in an insulin/IGF-dependent manner, enhanced asparagine synthetase expression and asparagine secretion by BMSCs, thus providing a stromal-dependent mechanism by which IGFBP7 protects ALL cells against asparaginase in this coculture system. Importantly, higher IGFBP7 mRNA levels were associated with lower leukemia-free survival (Cox regression model, P = 0.003) in precursor B-cell Ph(-) ALL patients (n = 147) treated with a contemporary polychemotherapy protocol.

The effects of 2 mg chlormadinone acetate/30 mcg ethinylestradiol, alone or combined with spironolactone, on cardiovascular risk markers in women with polycystic ovary syndrome

Background: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is an endocrine disorder associated with metabolic dysfunction and changes in cardiovascular risk markers, and using oral contraceptives (OCs) may exert a further negative effect on these alterations in patients with PCOS. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to assess the effects on arterial function and structure of an OC containing chlormadinone acetate (2 mg) and ethinylestradiol (30 mcg), alone or combined with spironolactone (OC+SPL), in patients with PCOS. Study Design: This was a randomized, controlled clinical trial. Fifty women with PCOS between 18 and 35 years of age were randomized by a computer program to use OC or OC+SPL. Brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation, carotid intima-media thickness and the carotid artery stiffness index were evaluated at baseline and after 6 and 12 months. Serum markers for cardiovascular disease were also analyzed. The intragroup data were analyzed using analysis of variance with Tukey's post hoc test. A multivariate linear regression model was used to analyze the intergroup data. Results: At 12 months, the increase in mean total cholesterol levels was greater in the OC+SPL group than in the OC group (27% vs. 13%, respectively; p=.02). The increase in mean sex hormone-binding globulin levels was greater in the OC group than in the OC+SPL group (424% vs. 364%, respectively; p=.01). No statistically significant differences between the groups were found for any of the other variables. Conclusion: The addition of spironolactone to an OC containing chlormadinone acetate and ethinylestradiol conferred no cardiovascular risk-marker advantages in young women with PCOS. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal outcomes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections as competing-risks events following cervical HPV test at baseline visit in the *NIS-LAMS** cohort

Background: The complex natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections following a single HPV test can be modeled as competing-risks events (i.e., no-, transient- or persistent infection) in a longitudinal setting. The covariates associated with these compet ng events have not been previously assessed using competing-risks regression models. Objectives: To gain further insights in the outcomes of cervical HPV infections, we used univariate- and multivariate competing-risks regression models to assess the covariaies associated with these competing events. Study Design and Methods: Covariates associated with three competing outcomes (no-, transient- or persistent HR-HPV infection) were analysed in a sub-cohort of 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS Study (n = 12,114). Results: In multivariate competing-risks models (with two other outcomes as competing events), permanently HR-HPV negative outcome was significantly predicted only by the clearance of ASCUS+Pap during FU, while three independent covariates predicted transient HR-HPV infections: i) number of recent (< 12 months) sexual partners (risk increased), ii) previous Pap screening history (protective), and history of previous CIN (increased risk). The two most powerful predictors of persistent HR-HPV infections were persistent ASCUS+Pap (risk increased), and previous Pap screening history (protective). In pair-wise comparisons, number of recent sexual partners and previous CIN history increase the probability of transient HR-HPV infection against the HR-HPV negative competing event, while previous Pap screening history is protective. Persistent ASCUS+Pap during FU and no previous Pap screening history are significantly associated with the persistent HR-HPV outcome (compared both with i) always negative, and ii) transient events), whereas multiparity is protective. Conclusions: Different covariates are associated with the three main outcomes of cervical HPV infections. The most significant covariates of each competing events are probably distinct enough to enable constructing of a risk-profile for each main outcome.

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness and associated factors in women aged 35-49 years from the "Pindamonhangaba Health Project" (PROSAPIN)

OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência da sonolência diurna excessiva (SDE) e identificar os fatores associados em mulheres de 35 a 49 anos de idade do "Projeto de Saúde de Pindamonhangaba" (PROSAPIN). MÉTODOS: O estudo foi observacional transversal com 372 mulheres com idade entre 35 e 49 anos selecionadas aleatoriamente da Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) do município de Pindamonhangaba, São Paulo, onde é desenvolvido o "Projeto de Saúde de Pindamonhangaba" (PROSAPIN). A SDE foi avaliada por entrevista utilizando a Escala de Sonolência de Epworth e os fatores associados por meio de questões que investigaram as características sócio-demográficas, a história ginecológica, a presença de comorbidades, o estilo de vida, a rotina de sono e o uso de medicamentos capazes de alterar o estado de alerta, além de mensuradas as variáveis antropométricas. Estimou-se a prevalência da SDE com intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC 95%) e foram identificados os fatores associados por meio de um modelo de regressão logística múltipla realizado no Programa Stata, versão 10.0. RESULTADOS: A prevalência da SDE foi de 18,5% (IC 95%: 14,7- 22,9) e os fatores associados foram: profissão relacionada a serviços domésticos (OR = 2,2; IC 95%: 1,1-4,3), nível de atividade física acima da média da população estudada (OR = 1,9; IC 95%: 1,1-3,4); e a presença de características sugestivas de ansiedade (OR = 1,9; IC 95%: 1,1-3,4). CONCLUSÃO: A prevalência da SDE em mulheres de 35 a 49 anos do PROSAPIN foi elevada e associada à característica sociodemográfica, à presença de comorbidades e ao estilo de vida.