36 resultados para Model risk
Resumo:
Increased fibrinolysis is an important component of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) bleeding diathesis. APL blasts overexpress annexin II (ANXII), a receptor for tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), and plasminogen, thereby increasing plasmin generation. Previous studies suggested that ANXII plays a pivotal role in APL coagulopathy. ANXII binding to tPA can be inhibited by homocysteine and hyperhomocysteinemia can be induced by L-methionine supplementation. In the present study, we used an APL mouse model to study ANXII function and the effects of hyperhomocysteinemia in vivo. Leukemic cells expressed higher ANXII and tPA plasma levels (11.95 ng/mL in leukemic vs 10.74 ng/mL in wild-type; P = .004). In leukemic mice, administration of L-methionine significantly increased homocysteine levels (49.0 mu mol/mL and < 6.0 mu mol/mL in the treated and nontreated groups, respectively) and reduced tPA levels to baseline concentrations. The latter were also decreased after infusion of the LCKLSL peptide, a competitor for the ANXII tPA-binding site (11.07 ng/mL; P = .001). We also expressed and purified the p36 component of ANXII in Pichia methanolica. The infusion of p36 in wild-type mice increased tPA and thrombin-antithrombin levels, and the latter was reversed by L-methionine administration. The results of the present study demonstrate the relevance of ANXII in vivo and suggest that methionine-induced hyperhomocysteinemia may reverse hyperfibrinolysis in APL. (Blood. 2012;120(1):207-213)
Resumo:
The aims of this study were to investigate work conditions, to estimate the prevalence and to describe risk factors associated with Computer Vision Syndrome among two call centers' operators in Sao Paulo (n = 476). The methods include a quantitative cross-sectional observational study and an ergonomic work analysis, using work observation, interviews and questionnaires. The case definition was the presence of one or more specific ocular symptoms answered as always, often or sometimes. The multiple logistic regression model, were created using the stepwise forward likelihood method and remained the variables with levels below 5% (p < 0.05). The operators were mainly female and young (from 15 to 24 years old). The call center was opened 24 hours and the operators weekly hours were 36 hours with break time from 21 to 35 minutes per day. The symptoms reported were eye fatigue (73.9%), "weight" in the eyes (68.2%), "burning" eyes (54.6%), tearing (43.9%) and weakening of vision (43.5%). The prevalence of Computer Vision Syndrome was 54.6%. Associations verified were: being female (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.6 to 4.1), lack of recognition at work (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.8), organization of work in call center (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.7) and high demand at work (OR 1.1, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.3). The organization and psychosocial factors at work should be included in prevention programs of visual syndrome among call centers' operators.
Resumo:
Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health issue worldwide. The lack of specific clinical symptoms to diagnose TB makes the correct decision to admit patients to respiratory isolation a difficult task for the clinician. Isolation of patients without the disease is common and increases health costs. Decision models for the diagnosis of TB in patients attending hospitals can increase the quality of care and decrease costs, without the risk of hospital transmission. We present a predictive model for predicting pulmonary TB in hospitalized patients in a high prevalence area in order to contribute to a more rational use of isolation rooms without increasing the risk of transmission. Methods: Cross sectional study of patients admitted to CFFH from March 2003 to December 2004. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated and validated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate the performance of model. Validation of the model was performed with a different sample of patients admitted to the same hospital from January to December 2005. Results: We studied 290 patients admitted with clinical suspicion of TB. Diagnosis was confirmed in 26.5% of them. Pulmonary TB was present in 83.7% of the patients with TB (62.3% with positive sputum smear) and HIV/AIDS was present in 56.9% of patients. The validated CART model showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 60.00%, 76.16%, 33.33%, and 90.55%, respectively. The AUC was 79.70%. Conclusions: The CART model developed for these hospitalized patients with clinical suspicion of TB had fair to good predictive performance for pulmonary TB. The most important variable for prediction of TB diagnosis was chest radiograph results. Prospective validation is still necessary, but our model offer an alternative for decision making in whether to isolate patients with clinical suspicion of TB in tertiary health facilities in countries with limited resources.
Resumo:
Background. The link between endogenous estrogen, coronary artery disease (CAD), and death in postmenopausal women is uncertain. We analyzed the association between death and blood levels of estrone in postmenopausal women with known coronary artery disease (CAD) or with a high-risk factor score for CAD. Methods. 251 postmenopausal women age 50-90 years not on estrogen therapy. Fasting blood for estrone and heart disease risk factors were collected at baseline. Women were grouped according to their estrone levels (<15 and >= 15 pg/mL). Fatal events were recorded after 5.8 perpendicular to 1.4 years of followup. Results. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed a significant trend (P = 0.039) of greater all-cause mortality in women with low estrone levels (< 15 pg/mL). Cox multivariate regression analysis model adjusted for body mass index, diabetes, dyslipidemia, family history, and estrone showed estrone (OR = 0.45; P = 0.038) as the only independent variable for all-cause mortality. Multivariate regression model adjusted for age, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, family history, and estrone showed that only age (OR = 1.06; P = 0.017) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. Conclusions. Postmenopausal women with known CAD or with a high-risk factor score for CAD and low estrone levels (< 15 pg/mL) had increased all-cause mortality.
Resumo:
Nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCL/P) is a complex disorder with a worldwide incidence estimated at 1:700. Among the putative susceptibility loci, the IRF6 gene and a region at 8q24.21 have been corroborated in different populations. To test the role of IRF6 in NSCL/P predisposition in the Brazilian population, we conducted a structured association study with the SNPs rs642961 and rs590223, respectively, located at 5' and 3' of the IRF6 gene and not in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD), in patients from five different Brazilian locations. We also evaluated the effect of these SNPs in IRF6 expression in mesenchymal stem cells (MSC). We observed association between rs642961 and cleft lip only (CLO) (P = 0.009; odds ratio (OR) for AA genotype = 1.83 [95% Confidence interval (CI), 0.64-5.31]; OR for AG genotype = 1.72 [95% CI, 1.03-2.84]). This association seems to be driven by the affected patients from Barbalha, a location which presents the highest heritability estimate (H-2 = 0.85), and the A allele at rs642961 is acting through a dominant model. No association was detected for the SNP rs590223. We did not find any correlation between expression levels and genotypes of the two loci, and it is possible that these SNPs have a functional role in some specific period of embryogenesis. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Resumo:
de Araujo CC, Silva JD, Samary CS, Guimaraes IH, Marques PS, Oliveira GP, do Carmo LGRR, Goldenberg RC, Bakker-Abreu I, Diaz BL, Rocha NN, Capelozzi VL, Pelosi P, Rocco PRM. Regular and moderate exercise before experimental sepsis reduces the risk of lung and distal organ injury. J Appl Physiol 112: 1206-1214, 2012. First published January 19, 2012; doi:10.1152/japplphysiol.01061.2011.-Physical activity modulates inflammation and immune response in both normal and pathologic conditions. We investigated whether regular and moderate exercise before the induction of experimental sepsis reduces the risk of lung and distal organ injury and survival. One hundred twenty-four BALB/c mice were randomly assigned to two groups: sedentary (S) and trained (T). Animals in T group ran on a motorized treadmill, at moderate intensity, 5% grade, 30 min/day, 3 times a week for 8 wk. Cardiac adaptation to exercise was evaluated using echocardiography. Systolic volume and left ventricular mass were increased in T compared with S group. Both T and S groups were further randomized either to sepsis induced by cecal ligation and puncture surgery (CLP) or sham operation (control). After 24 h, lung mechanics and histology, the degree of cell apoptosis in lung, heart, kidney, liver, and small intestine villi, and interleukin (IL)-6, KC (IL-8 murine functional homolog), IL-1 beta, IL-10, and number of cells in bronchoalveolar lavage (BALF) and peritoneal lavage (PLF) fluids as well as plasma were measured. In CLP, T compared with S groups showed: 1) improvement in survival; 2) reduced lung static elastance, alveolar collapse, collagen and elastic fiber content, number of neutrophils in BALF, PLF, and plasma, as well as lung and distal organ cell apoptosis; and 3) increased IL-10 in BALF and plasma, with reduced IL-6, KC, and IL-1 beta in PLF. In conclusion, regular and moderate exercise before the induction of sepsis reduced the risk of lung and distal organ damage, thus increasing survival.
Resumo:
Santos C.S.A.B., Piatti R.M., Azevedo S.S., Alves C.J., Higino S.S.S., Silva M.L.C.R., Brasil A.W.L. & Gennari S.M. 2012. Seroprevalence and risk factors associated with Chlamydophila abortus infection in dairy goats in the Northeast of Brazil. Pesquisa Veterinaria Brasileira 32(11):1082-1086. Unidade Academica de Medicina Veterinaria, Centro de Sa de e Tecnologia Rural, Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, Av. Universitaria s/n, Bairro Santa Cecilia, Patos, PB 58700-970, Brazil. E-mail: sergio.azevedo@pq.cnpq.br Few data are available on the prevalence and risk factors of Chlamydophila abortus infection in goats in Brazil. A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the flock-level prevalence of C. abortus infection in goats from the semiarid region of the Paraiba State, Northeast region of Brazil, as well as to identify risk factors associated with the infection. Flocks were randomly selected and a pre-established number of female goats >= 12 mo old were sampled in each of these flocks. A total of 975 serum samples from 110 flocks were collected, and structured questionnaire focusing on risk factors for C. abortus infection was given to each farmer at the time of blood collection. For the serological diagnosis the complement fixation test (CFT) using C. abortus S26/3 strain as antigen was performed. The flock-level factors for C. abortus prevalence were tested using multivariate logistic regression model. Fifty-five flocks out of 110 presented at least one seropositive animal with an overall prevalence of 50.0% (95%; CI: 40.3%, 59.7%). Ninety-one out of 975 dairy goats examined were seropositive with titers >= 32, resulting in a frequency of 9.3%. Lend buck for breeding (odds ratio = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.04-5.33) and history of abortions (odds ratio = 3.06; 95% CI: 1.37-6.80) were associated with increased flock prevalence.
Resumo:
Congenital heart disease (CHD) occurs in similar to 1% of newborns. CHD arises from many distinct etiologies, ranging from genetic or genomic variation to exposure to teratogens, which elicit diverse cell and molecular responses during cardiac development. To systematically explore the relationships between CHD risk factors and responses, we compiled and integrated comprehensive datasets from studies of CHD in humans and model organisms. We examined two alternative models of potential functional relationships between genes in these datasets: direct convergence, in which CHD risk factors significantly and directly impact the same genes and molecules and functional convergence, in which risk factors significantly impact different molecules that participate in a discrete heart development network. We observed no evidence for direct convergence. In contrast, we show that CHD risk factors functionally converge in protein networks driving the development of specific anatomical structures (e.g., outflow tract, ventricular septum, and atrial septum) that are malformed by CHD. This integrative analysis of CHD risk factors and responses suggests a complex pattern of functional interactions between genomic variation and environmental exposures that modulate critical biological systems during heart development.
Resumo:
The aim of the present study is to contribute an ecologically relevant assessment of the ecotoxicological effects of pesticide applications in agricultural areas in the tropics, using an integrated approach with information gathered from soil and aquatic compartments. Carbofuran, an insecticide/nematicide used widely on sugarcane crops, was selected as a model substance. To evaluate the toxic effects of pesticide spraying for soil biota, as well as the potential indirect effects on aquatic biota resulting from surface runoff and/or leaching, field and laboratory (using a cost-effective simulator of pesticide applications) trials were performed. Standard ecotoxicological tests were performed with soil (Eisenia andrei, Folsomia candida, and Enchytraeus crypticus) and aquatic (Ceriodaphnia silvestrii) organisms, using serial dilutions of soil, eluate, leachate, and runoff samples. Among soil organisms, sensitivity was found to be E. crypticus < E. andrei < F. candida. Among the aqueous extracts, mortality of C. silvestrii was extreme in runoff samples, whereas eluates were by far the least toxic samples. A generally higher toxicity was found in the bioassays performed with samples from the field trial, indicating the need for improvements in the laboratory simulator. However, the tool developed proved to be valuable in evaluating the toxic effects of pesticide spraying in soils and the potential risks for aquatic compartments. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2012;31:437-445. (C) 2011 SETAC
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the nutritional status of pediatric patients after orthotopic liver transplantation and the relationship with short-term clinical outcome. METHOD: Anthropometric evaluations of 60 children and adolescents after orthotopic liver transplantation, during the first 24 hours in a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit. Nutritional status was determined from the Z score for the following indices: weight/age, height/age or length/age, weight/height or weight/length, body mass index/age, arm circumference/age and triceps skinfold/age. The severity of liver disease was evaluated using one of the two models which was adequated to the patients' age: 1. Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease, 2. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease. RESULTS: We found 50.0% undernutrition by height/age; 27.3% by weight/age; 11.1% by weight/height or weight/length; 10.0% by body mass index/age; 61.6% by arm circumference/age and 51.0% by triceps skinfold/age. There was no correlation between nutritional status and Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease or mortality. We found a negative correlation between arm circumference/age and length of hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Children with chronic liver diseases experience a significant degree of undernutrition, which makes nutritional support an important aspect of therapy. Despite the difficulties in assessment, anthropometric evaluation of the upper limbs is useful to evaluate nutritional status of children before or after liver transplantation.
Resumo:
In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We investigated the association between diet and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk using data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. The INHANCE pooled data included 22 case-control studies with 14,520 cases and 22,737 controls. Center-specific quartiles among the controls were used for food groups, and frequencies per week were used for single food items. A dietary pattern score combining high fruit and vegetable intake and low red meat intake was created. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the dietary items on the risk of HNC were estimated with a two-stage random-effects logistic regression model. An inverse association was observed for higher-frequency intake of fruit (4th vs. 1st quartile OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.43-0.62, p (trend) < 0.01) and vegetables (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.90, p (trend) = 0.01). Intake of red meat (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.13-1.74, p (trend) = 0.13) and processed meat (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.14-1.65, p (trend) < 0.01) was positively associated with HNC risk. Higher dietary pattern scores, reflecting high fruit/vegetable and low red meat intake, were associated with reduced HNC risk (per score increment OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.84-0.97).
Resumo:
In order to assess the contribution of different parenteral routes as risk exposure to the hepatitis C virus (HCV), samples from nine surveys or cross-sectional studies conducted in two Brazilian inland regions were pooled, including a total of 3,910 subjects. Heterogeneity among the study results for different risk factors was tested and the results were shown to be homogeneous. Anti-HCV antibodies were observed in 241 individuals, of which 146 (3.7%, 95% CI?=?3.24.4) had HCV exposure confirmed by immunoblot analysis or PCR test. After adjustment for relevant variables, a correlation between confirmed HCV exposure and injection drug use, tattooing, and advance age was observed. In a second logistic model that included exposures not searched in all nine studies, a smaller sample was analyzed, revealing an independent HCV association with past history of surgery and males who have sex with other males, in addition to repeated injection drug use. Overall, these analyses corroborate the finding that injection drug use is the main risk factor for HCV exposure and spread, in addition to other parenteral routes. J. Med. Virol. 84:756762, 2012. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Resumo:
Purpose: Refractory frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE) remains one of the most challenging surgically remediable epilepsy syndromes. Nevertheless, definition of independent predictors and predictive models of postsurgical seizure outcome remains poorly explored in FLE. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 70 consecutive patients with refractory FLE submitted to surgical treatment at our center from July 1994 to December 2006. Univariate results were submitted to logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards regression to identify isolated risk factors for poor surgical results and to construct predictive models for surgical outcome in FLE. Results: From 70 patients submitted to surgery, 45 patients (64%) had favorable outcome and 37 (47%) became seizure free. Isolated risk factors for poor surgical outcome are expressed in hazard ratio (H.R.) and were time of epilepsy (H.R.=4.2; 95% C.I.=.1.5-11.7; p=0.006), ictal EEG recruiting rhythm (H.R. = 2.9; 95% C.I. = 1.1-7.7; p=0.033); normal MRI (H.R. = 4.8; 95% C.I. = 1.4-16.6; p = 0.012), and MRI with lesion involving eloquent cortex (H.R. = 3.8; 95% C.I. = 1.2-12.0; p = 0.021). Based on these variables and using a logistic regression model we constructed a model that correctly predicted long-term surgical outcome in up to 80% of patients. Conclusion: Among independent risk factors for postsurgical seizure outcome, epilepsy duration is a potentially modifiable factor that could impact surgical outcome in FLE. Early diagnosis, presence of an MRI lesion not involving eloquent cortex, and ictal EEG without recruited rhythm independently predicted favorable outcome in this series. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
It was verified to what extent cognitive and affective/emotional variables could distinguish caregivers accused of committing physical abuse (G1) from those without physical abuse records (G2). The Child Abuse Potential Inventory (CAP), which is an instrument designed to assess psychological risk factors in caregivers, was used. A questionnaire on socio-demographic characterization and another on economic classification were also employed to equate the groups. G1 presented a greater potential risk than G2, higher levels of Distress, Rigidity, Problems with the Child and with Themselves, Problems with Others, and a lower level of Ego Strength. These variables contribute with the composition of physical abuse risk, since, in agreement with the Social Information Processing Model, they would be related to cognitive and affective basic processes which are veiled to the perceptions and evaluation/interpretations, associated to abusive parental behavior.