Influence diagnostics in Gaussian spatial linear models

Spatial linear models have been applied in numerous fields such as agriculture, geoscience and environmental sciences, among many others. Spatial dependence structure modelling, using a geostatistical approach, is an indispensable tool to estimate the parameters that define this structure. However, this estimation may be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations in the sampled data. The purpose of this paper is to use diagnostic techniques to assess the sensitivity of the maximum-likelihood estimators, covariance functions and linear predictor to small perturbations in the data and/or the spatial linear model assumptions. The methodology is illustrated with two real data sets. The results allowed us to conclude that the presence of atypical values in the sample data have a strong influence on thematic maps, changing the spatial dependence structure.

Amazon Rainforest Exchange of Carbon and Subcanopy Air Flow: Manaus LBA Site-A Complex Terrain Condition

On the moderately complex terrain covered by dense tropical Amazon Rainforest (Reserva Biologica do Cuieiras-ZF2-02 degrees 36'17.1 '' S, 60 degrees 12'24.4 '' W), subcanopy horizontal and vertical gradients of the air temperature, CO2 concentration and wind field were measured for the dry and wet periods in 2006. We tested the hypothesis that horizontal drainage flow over this study area is significant and can affect the interpretation of the high carbon uptake rates reported by previous works at this site. A similar experimental design as the one by Tota et al. (2008) was used with a network of wind, air temperature, and CO2 sensors above and below the forest canopy. A persistent and systematic subcanopy nighttime upslope (positive buoyancy) and daytime downslope (negative buoyancy) flow pattern on a moderately inclined slope (12%) was observed. The microcirculations observed above the canopy (38 m) over the sloping area during nighttime presents a downward motion indicating vertical convergence and correspondent horizontal divergence toward the valley area. During the daytime an inverse pattern was observed. The microcirculations above the canopy were driven mainly by buoyancy balancing the pressure gradient forces. In the subcanopy space the microcirculations were also driven by the same physical mechanisms but probably with the stress forcing contribution. The results also indicated that the horizontal and vertical scalar gradients (e. g., CO2) were modulated by these micro-circulations above and below the canopy, suggesting that estimates of advection using previous experimental approaches are not appropriate due to the tridimensional nature of the vertical and horizontal transport locally. This work also indicates that carbon budget from tower-based measurement is not enough to close the system, and one needs to include horizontal and vertical advection transport of CO2 into those estimates.

Comparison of eating attitudes among university students from the five Brazilian regions

Eating attitudes can be defined as beliefs, thoughts, feelings, behavior and relationship with food. They can influence people's food choices and health status. The scope of this paper is to compare eating attitudes of university students from different regions of Brazil and investigate possible associations and correlations with nutritional status, age, individual income and parental education. 2489 female university students in the area of health answered the Eating Attitude Scale - evaluated by total score and 5 sub-scores. The eating attitudes were compared by means of an analysis of covariance. A logistic regression was conducted to evaluate which variables were associated to the scale score. The Northeast presented more restrictive and compensatory practices and the North and Northeast presented less positive feelings about food and worse ideas about normal eating. The score on the scale did not present strong correlation with any of the variables studied, but nutritional status and age were associated with the total score. The profile of university students was similar among regions with the worst response in the North and Northeast regions. It is believed that these data could help to elucidate dietary patterns and nutritional differences among groups.

Oral health and access to dental care services in relation to the Health Necessities Index. Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2008

The Health Department of Sao Paulo, Brazil, has developed a Health Necessities Index (HNI) to identify priority areas for providing health assistance. In 2008, a survey of the status of oral health was conducted. The objective of this ecological study was to analyze the status of oral health in relation to the HNI. The variables, stratified by the age of 5, 12 and 15 years old were: percentage of individuals with difficulty of access to dental care services; DMFT and DMFS; prevalence of the need for tooth extraction and treatment of dental caries. Data were analyzed for the 25 Health Technical Supervision Units (HTS). The Statistical Covariance Test was used as well as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression model. A positive correlation was observed between high scores of the HNI and difficulty of access to services. In the HTS with high scores of HNI a higher incidence of dental caries was observed, a greater need for tooth extractions and low caries-free incidence. In order to improve health conditions of the population it is mandatory to prioritize actions in areas of social deprivation.

Short communication: Principal components and factor analytic models for test-day milk yield in Brazilian Holstein cattle

A total of 46,089 individual monthly test-day (TD) milk yields (10 test-days), from 7,331 complete first lactations of Holstein cattle were analyzed. A standard multivariate analysis (MV), reduced rank analyses fitting the first 2, 3, and 4 genetic principal components (PC2, PC3, PC4), and analyses that fitted a factor analytic structure considering 2, 3, and 4 factors (FAS2, FAS3, FAS4), were carried out. The models included the random animal genetic effect and fixed effects of the contemporary groups (herd-year-month of test-day), age of cow (linear and quadratic effects), and days in milk (linear effect). The residual covariance matrix was assumed to have full rank. Moreover, 2 random regression models were applied. Variance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood method. The heritability estimates ranged from 0.11 to 0.24. The genetic correlation estimates between TD obtained with the PC2 model were higher than those obtained with the MV model, especially on adjacent test-days at the end of lactation close to unity. The results indicate that for the data considered in this study, only 2 principal components are required to summarize the bulk of genetic variation among the 10 traits.

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

The objective of this paper is to model variations in test-day milk yields of first lactations of Holstein cows by RR using B-spline functions and Bayesian inference in order to fit adequate and parsimonious models for the estimation of genetic parameters. They used 152,145 test day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows. The model established in this study was additive, permanent environmental and residual random effects. In addition, contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of the age of cow at calving were included as fixed effects. Authors modeled the average lactation curve of the population with a fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. They concluded that a cubic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both the additive genetic and permanent environment effects was to be the best according to residual mean square and residual variance estimates. Moreover they urged a lower order model (quadratic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both random effects) could be adopted because it yielded practically the same genetic parameter estimates with parsimony. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic relationship between growth and reproductive traits in Nellore cattle

The objective of this study was to evaluate the genetic relationship between postweaning weight gain (PWG), heifer pregnancy (HP), scrotal circumference (SC) at 18 months of age, stayability at 6 years of age (STAY) and finishing visual score at 18 months of age (PREC), and to determine the potential of these traits as selection criteria for the genetic improvement of growth and reproduction in Nellore cattle. The HP was defined as the observation that a heifer conceived and remained pregnant, which was assessed by rectal palpation at 60 days. The STAY was defined as whether or not a cow calved every year up to the age of 6 years, given that she was provided the opportunity to breed. The Bayesian linear-threshold analysis via the Gibbs sampler was used to estimate the variance and covariance components applying a multitrait model. Posterior mean estimates of direct heritability were 0.15 +/- 0.00, 0.42 +/- 0.02, 0.49 +/- 0.01, 0.11 +/- 0.01 and 0.19 +/- 0.00 for PWG, HP, SC, STAY and PREC, respectively. The genetic correlations between traits ranged from 0.17 to 0.62. The traits studied generally have potential for use as selection criteria in genetic breeding programs. The genetic correlations between all traits show that selection for one of these traits does not imply the loss of the others.

Genotype by environment interaction for birth and weaning weights of composite beef cattle in different regions of Brazil

The objectives of the present study were to characterize and define homogenous production environments of composite beef cattle in Brazil in terms of climatic and geographic variables using multivariate exploratory techniques and to use them to assess the presence of G x E for birth weight (BW) and weaning weight (WW). Data from animals born between 1995 and 2008 on 36 farms located in 27 municipalities of the Brazilian states were used. Fifteen years of climate observations (mean minimum and maximum annual temperature and mean annual rainfall) and geographic (latitude, longitude and altitude) data were obtained for each municipality where the farms were located for characterization of the production environments. Hierarchical and nonhierarchical cluster analysis was used to group farms located in regions with similar environmental variables into clusters. Six clusters of farms were formed. The effect of sire-cluster interaction was tested by single-trait analysis using deviance information criterion (DIC). Genetic parameters were estimated by multi-trait analysis considering the same trait to be different in each cluster. According to the values of DIC, the inclusion of sire-cluster effect did not improve the fit of the genetic evaluation model for BW and WW. Estimates of genetic correlations among clusters ranged from -0.02 to 0.92. The low genetic correlation among the most studied regions permits us to suggest that a separate genetic evaluation for some regions should be undertaken. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

Longitudinal familial analysis of blood pressure involving parametric (co)variance functions

Abstract Background For analyzing longitudinal familial data we adopted a log-linear form to incorporate heterogeneity in genetic variance components over the time, and additionally a serial correlation term in the genetic effects at different levels of ages. Due to the availability of multiple measures on the same individual, we permitted environmental correlations that may change across time. Results Systolic blood pressure from family members from the first and second cohort was used in the current analysis. Measures of subjects receiving hypertension treatment were set as censored values and they were corrected. An initial check of the variance and covariance functions proposed for analyzing longitudinal familial data, using empirical semi-variogram plots, indicated that the observed trait dispersion pattern follows the assumptions adopted. Conclusion The corrections for censored phenotypes based on ordinary linear models may be an appropriate simple model to correct the data, ensuring that the original variability in the data was retained. In addition, empirical semi-variogram plots are useful for diagnosis of the (co)variance model adopted.

Influence of intentional ankylosis of deciduous canines to reinforce the anchorage for maxillary protraction

Introduction: This retrospective cephalometric study analyzed the influence of intentional ankylosis of deciduous canines in patients with Class III malocclusion and anterior crossbite, in the deciduous and early mixed dentition stages, treated by orthopedic maxillary expansion followed by maxillary protraction. Methods: Lateral cephalograms of 40 patients were used, divided in 2 groups paired for age and gender. The Ankylosis Group was composed of 20 patients (10 boys and 10 girls) treated with induced ankylosis and presenting initial and final mean ages of 7 years 4 months and 8 years 3 months, respectively, with a mean period of maxillary protraction of 11 months. The Control Group comprised 20 patients (10 boys and 10 girls) treated without induced ankylosis, with initial and final mean ages of 7 years 8 months and 8 years 7 months, respectively, with a mean period of maxillary protraction of 11 months. Two-way analysis of variance and covariance analysis were applied to compare the initial and final cephalometric variables and the treatment changes between groups. Results: According to the results, the variables evidencing the significant treatment changes between groups confirmed that the intentional ankylosis enhanced the sagittal response of the apical bases (Pg-NPerp) and increased the facial convexity angles (NAP and ANB). Conclusions: The protocol involving intentional ankylosis of deciduous canines enhanced the sagittal response of the apical bases.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Chemically Resolved Particle Fluxes Over Tropical and Temperate Forests

Chemically resolved submicron (PM1) particlemass fluxes were measured by eddy covariance with a high resolution time-of-flight aerosolmass spectrometer over temperate and tropical forests during the BEARPEX-07 and AMAZE-08 campaigns. Fluxes during AMAZE-08 were small and close to the detection limit (<1 ng m−2 s−1) due to low particle mass concentrations (<1 μg m−3). During BEARPEX-07, concentrations were five times larger, with mean mid-day deposition fluxes of −4.8 ng m−2 s−1 for total nonrefractory PM1 (Vex,PM1 = −1 mm s−1) and emission fluxes of +2.6 ng m−2 s−1 for organic PM1 (Vex,org = +1 mm s−1). Biosphere–atmosphere fluxes of different chemical components are affected by in-canopy chemistry, vertical gradients in gas-particle partitioning due to canopy temperature gradients, emission of primary biological aerosol particles, and wet and dry deposition. As a result of these competing processes, individual chemical components had fluxes of varying magnitude and direction during both campaigns. Oxygenated organic components representing regionally aged aerosol deposited, while components of fresh secondary organic aerosol (SOA) emitted. During BEARPEX-07, rapid incanopy oxidation caused rapid SOA growth on the timescale of biosphere-atmosphere exchange. In-canopy SOA mass yields were 0.5–4%. During AMAZE-08, the net organic aerosol flux was influenced by deposition, in-canopy SOA formation, and thermal shifts in gas-particle partitioning.Wet deposition was estimated to be an order ofmagnitude larger than dry deposition during AMAZE-08. Small shifts in organic aerosol concentrations from anthropogenic sources such as urban pollution or biomass burning alters the balance between flux terms. The semivolatile nature of the Amazonian organic aerosol suggests a feedback in which warmer temperatures will partition SOA to the gas-phase, reducing their light scattering and thus potential to cool the region.

Fluxes of CO2 above a sugarcane plantation in Brazil

Fluxes of CO2 were measured above a sugarcane plantation using the eddy-covariance method covering two growth cycles, representing the second and third re-growth (ratoons) harvested with stubble burning. The total net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in the first cycle (second ratoon, 393 days long) was −1964 ± 44 g C m−2; the gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) was 3612 ± 46 g C m−2 and the ecosystem respiration (RE) was 1648 ± 14 g C m−2. The NEE and GEP totals in the second cycle (third ratoon, 374 days long) decreased 51% and 25%, respectively and RE increased 7%. Accounting for the carbon emitted during biomass burning and the removal of stalks at harvest, net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) totals were 102 ± 130 g C m−2 and 403 ± 84 g C m−2 in each cycle respectively. Thus the sugarcane agrosystem was approximately carbon neutral in the second ratoon. Yield in stalks fresh weight (SFW) attained the regional average (8.3 kg SFW m−2). Although it was a carbon source to the atmosphere, observed productivity (6.2 kg SFW m−2) of the third ratoon was 19% lower than the regional average due to the lower water availability observed during the initial 120 days of re-growth. However, the overall water use efficiency (WUE) achieved in the first cycle (4.3 g C kg−1 H2O) decreased only 5% in the second cycle. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

What drives the seasonality of photosynthesis across the Amazon basin? A cross-site analysis of eddy flux tower measurements from the Brasil flux network

We investigated the seasonal patterns of Amazonian forest photosynthetic activity, and the effects thereon of variations in climate and land-use, by integrating data from a network of ground-based eddy flux towers in Brazil established as part of the ‘Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia’ project. We found that degree of water limitation, as indicated by the seasonality of the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux (Bowen ratio) predicts seasonal patterns of photosynthesis. In equatorial Amazonian forests (5◦ N–5◦ S), water limitation is absent, and photosynthetic fluxes (or gross ecosystem productivity, GEP) exhibit high or increasing levels of photosynthetic activity as the dry season progresses, likely a consequence of allocation to growth of new leaves. In contrast, forests along the southern flank of the Amazon, pastures converted from forest, and mixed forest-grass savanna, exhibit dry-season declines in GEP, consistent with increasing degrees of water limitation. Although previous work showed tropical ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) is driven by incoming radiation, GEP observations reported here surprisingly show no or negative relationships with photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Instead, GEP fluxes largely followed the phenology of canopy photosynthetic capacity (Pc), with only deviations from this primary pattern driven by variations in PAR. Estimates of leaf flush at three