A Single Statistic for Monitoring the Covariance Matrix of Bivariate Processes

In this article, we present a new control chart for monitoring the covariance matrix in a bivariate process. In this method, n observations of the two variables were considered as if they came from a single variable (as a sample of 2n observations), and a sample variance was calculated. This statistic was used to build a new control chart specifically as a VMIX chart. The performance of the new control chart was compared with its main competitors: the generalized sampled variance chart, the likelihood ratio test, Nagao's test, probability integral transformation (v(t)), and the recently proposed VMAX chart. Among these statistics, only the VMAX chart was competitive with the VMIX chart. For shifts in both variances, the VMIX chart outperformed VMAX; however, VMAX showed better performance for large shifts (higher than 10%) in one variance.

The Kumaraswamy Gumbel distribution

The Gumbel distribution is perhaps the most widely applied statistical distribution for problems in engineering. We propose a generalization-referred to as the Kumaraswamy Gumbel distribution-and provide a comprehensive treatment of its structural properties. We obtain the analytical shapes of the density and hazard rate functions. We calculate explicit expressions for the moments and generating function. The variation of the skewness and kurtosis measures is examined and the asymptotic distribution of the extreme values is investigated. Explicit expressions are also derived for the moments of order statistics. The methods of maximum likelihood and parametric bootstrap and a Bayesian procedure are proposed for estimating the model parameters. We obtain the expected information matrix. An application of the new model to a real dataset illustrates the potentiality of the proposed model. Two bivariate generalizations of the model are proposed.

The exponential COM-Poisson distribution

The Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COMP) distribution as an extension of the Poisson distribution is a popular model for analyzing counting data. For the first time, we introduce a new three parameter distribution, so-called the exponential-Conway-Maxwell Poisson (ECOMP) distribution, that contains as sub-models the exponential-geometric and exponential-Poisson distributions proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (Stat Probab Lett 39:35-42, 1998) and KuAY (Comput Stat Data Anal 51:4497-4509, 2007), respectively. The new density function can be expressed as a mixture of exponential density functions. Expansions for moments, moment generating function and some statistical measures are provided. The density function of the order statistics can also be expressed as a mixture of exponential densities. We derive two formulae for the moments of order statistics. The elements of the observed information matrix are provided. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the new distribution to analyze positive data.

Clusters of leprosy transmission and of late diagnosis in a highly endemic area in Brazil: focus on different spatial analysis approaches

Objective The Brazilian National Hansens Disease Control Program recently identified clusters with high disease transmission. Herein, we present different spatial analytical approaches to define highly vulnerable areas in one of these clusters. Method The study area included 373 municipalities in the four Brazilian states Maranha o, Para ', Tocantins and Piaui '. Spatial analysis was based on municipalities as the observation unit, considering the following disease indicators: (i) rate of new cases / 100 000 population, (ii) rate of cases < 15 years / 100 000 population, (iii) new cases with grade-2 disability / 100 000 population and (iv) proportion of new cases with grade-2 disabilities. We performed descriptive spatial analysis, local empirical Bayesian analysis and spatial scan statistic. Results A total of 254 (68.0%) municipalities were classified as hyperendemic (mean annual detection rates > 40 cases / 100 000 inhabitants). There was a concentration of municipalities with higher detection rates in Para ' and in the center of Maranha o. Spatial scan statistic identified 23 likely clusters of new leprosy case detection rates, most of them localized in these two states. These clusters included only 32% of the total population, but 55.4% of new leprosy cases. We also identified 16 significant clusters for the detection rate < 15 years and 11 likely clusters of new cases with grade-2. Several clusters of new cases with grade-2 / population overlap with those of new cases detection and detection of children < 15 years of age. The proportion of new cases with grade-2 did not reveal any significant clusters. Conclusions Several municipality clusters for high leprosy transmission and late diagnosis were identified in an endemic area using different statistical approaches. Spatial scan statistic is adequate to validate and confirm high-risk leprosy areas for transmission and late diagnosis, identified using descriptive spatial analysis and using local empirical Bayesian method. National and State leprosy control programs urgently need to intensify control actions in these highly vulnerable municipalities.

CHARACTERIZATION STUDY OF CAMBUCI FRUIT [Campomanesia phaea (O. Berg.) Landrum] AND ITS APPLICATION IN JELLY PROCESSING

CHARACTERIZATION STUDY OF CAMBUCI FRUIT [Campomanesia phaea (O. Berg.) Landrum] AND ITS APPLICATION IN JELLY PROCESSING The objective of this paper was to study possible differences of varieties of cambuci fruit reported by producers by means of fruit characterization and elaboration of jelly. The fruits were divided in four possible varieties groups, named as A, B, C and D, and submitted to analysis regarding weight, ash, moisture, pH, soluble solids, acidity, ratio, ascorbic acid and water activity. To the preparation of the jelly was chosen the variety A with two formulations, 50%50% and 40%60%, fruit and sugar respectively. Concerning the possible varieties of cambuci only water activity was not significantly different. The acidity and ratio of B variety are noteworthy, because it did differ from the others presenting a more satisfactory result for in natura consumption. All other tests presented statistic alteration of at least one variety, but since these data can be influenced by edaphoclimatic conditions they must be carefully observed. Lower results for pH, acidity, luminosity and degrees hue, were observed for the 60% sugar jelly sample, which contributed for its better results in the preference test for the attributes appearance, color, flavor and texture. The evaluation of attribute aroma of both samples (50% and 60%) did not differ.

How Should the Articular Disk Position Be Analyzed?

Purpose: To compare 2 methods used to determine the disk position based on sagittal magnetic resonance images. Patients and Methods: A cross-sectional study of patients with the signs and symptoms of temporomandibular disorders was conducted. The patients' ages and gender distributions were collected. The disk position diagnosis from the clinical examination was considered the primary outcome. Three observers evaluated the presence of anterior displacement on magnetic resonance images according to 2 criteria: method 1 (12-o'clock position) and method 2 (location of the intermediate zone). To assess the intraobserver variability of the 2 methods, the examiners evaluated the same magnetic resonance images at the beginning of the study (time 1) and 40 days later (time 2). The intraobserver agreement was assessed using the observed agreement and the kappa statistic. McNemar's test was used to assess the differences between each method and the clinical examination findings (P < .05). The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated by comparing the diagnosis from each method with that from the clinical examination (considered the reference standard). Results: The final sample was composed of 20 subjects with a mean age of 33.0 +/- 33.7 years; 3 were men (15%) and 17 were women (85%). A statistically significant difference between the 2 methods was found. Method 1 yielded a greater percentage of anterior displaced disks (52.5%). The agreement between the clinical diagnosis and method 1 was lower (70.0%) than that between the clinical diagnosis and method 2 (87.5%). No statistically significant difference was found between the clinical diagnosis and method 2. Conclusion: The disk position should be judged according to the intermediate zone criterion. (C) 2012 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons J Oral Maxillofac Surg 70:1534-1539, 2012

The new class of Kummer beta generalized distributions

Ng and Kotz (1995) introduced a distribution that provides greater flexibility to extremes. We define and study a new class of distributions called the Kummer beta generalized family to extend the normal, Weibull, gamma and Gumbel distributions, among several other well-known distributions. Some special models are discussed. The ordinary moments of any distribution in the new family can be expressed as linear functions of probability weighted moments of the baseline distribution. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. We derive the density function of the order statistics, mean absolute deviations and entropies. We use maximum likelihood estimation to fit the distributions in the new class and illustrate its potentiality with an application to a real data set.

Evaluation of the identification protocol for newborns in a private hospital

This exploratory-descriptive quantitative study aimed to evaluate the protocol for identifying newborns admitted to the Neonatal Intensive and Semi-intensive Therapy Unit of a private hospital. The case series was made up of 540 observation opportunities, selected by simple random probability sampling. The data was collected between May and August 2010 according to a form and analyzed by descriptive statistic. The protocol's general performance had a conformity index of 82.2%. There were three stages to the protocol: identification components, the identification wristbands' condition and the number of identification wristbands. The highest percentage of conformity (93%) was attributed to the second stage and the lowest (89.3%) to the third, presenting a statistically significant difference of p=0.046. In the group of 'special' neonates, 88.5% conformity was achieved. These results will make it possible to restructure the protocol for identifying newborns and to establish care and managerial goals so as to improve the quality of care and the patients' safety.

Influence of obesity and handgrip strength in the static postural balance of active older women

The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of the obesity and handgrip strength on the static balance of active older women in the opened and closed eyes conditions. Thirty one women aged from 65 to 75 years (16 eutrophic and 15 obese) were evaluated. Mean age and BMI of the eutrophic women were, respectively, 68.3 +/- 2.7 years and 23.4 +/- 1.6kg/m(2), and of the obese women were 69.1 +/- 2.7 years and 33.5 +/- 3kg/m(2). Handgrip strength was evaluated using a dynamometer (JAMAR). A tridimensional sensors system was used to evaluate the static postural balance. The tests were performed for 90 seconds, with eyes opened and closed. The mean handgrip strength of the eutrophic women was 25.1 +/- 4.6kgf and of the obese women was 24.8 +/- 5.2kgf, (p>0,05). Significant differences between groups were only observed in the maximum displacement with opened eyes (p=0,04) and closed eyes(p<0,01). There was no correlation between the maximum displacement neither with the BMI or the handgrip strength. The present study showed smaller a-p displacement in obese than in eutrophic women, with major statistic difference in the eyes closed condition. In the present study, the handgrip strength did not influence the static balance, however the obesity was a determinant factor for the smaller a-p displacement of the active older women.

Higher incidence of death in multi-vessel coronary artery disease patients associated with polymorphisms in chromosome 9p21

Background: We investigated whether 9p21 polymorphisms are associated with cardiovascular events in a group of 611 patients enrolled in the Medical, Angioplasty or Surgery Study II (MASS II), a randomized trial comparing treatments for patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and preserved left ventricular function. Methods: The participants of the MASS II were genotyped for 9p21 polymorphisms (rs10757274, rs2383206, rs10757278 and rs1333049). Survival curves were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank statistic. We assessed the relationship between baseline variables and the composite end-point of death, death from cardiac causes and myocardial infarction using a Cox proportional hazards survival model. Results: We observed significant differences between patients within each polymorphism genotype group for baseline characteristics. The frequency of diabetes was lower in patients carrying GG genotype for rs10757274, rs2383206 and rs10757278 (29.4%, 32.8%, 32.0%) compared to patients carrying AA or AG genotypes (49.1% and 39.2%, p = 0.01; 52.4% and 40.1%, p = 0.01; 47.8% and 37.9%, p = 0.04; respectively). Significant differences in genotype frequencies between double and triple vessel disease patients were observed for the rs10757274, rs10757278 and rs1333049. Finally, there was a higher incidence of overall mortality in patients with the GG genotype for rs2383206 compared to patients with AA and AG genotypes (19.5%, 11.9%, 11.0%, respectively; p = 0.04). Moreover, the rs2383206 was still significantly associated with a 1.75-fold increased risk of overall mortality (p = 0.02) even after adjustment of a Cox multivariate model for age, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes, smoking and type of coronary anatomy. Conclusions: Our data are in accordance to previous evidence that chromosome 9p21 genetic variation may constitute a genetic modulator in the cardiovascular system in different scenarios. In patients with established CAD, we observed an association between the rs2383206 and higher incidence of overall mortality and death from cardiac causes in patients with multi-vessel CAD.

SLEEP QUALITY OF OBESE WORKERS OF A TEACHING HOSPITAL: ACUPUNCTURE AS A COMPLEMENTARY THERAPY

The objective of this study was to verify the effect of acupuncture on the sleep quality of obese workers in a teaching hospital. Data were collected from July to October 2009, focusing on 37 workers who attended eight weekly acupuncture sessions. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index was used to assess their sleep quality before and after the intervention. Results show that before the intervention, five (13.5%) people experienced good quality of sleep whereas at the end of the study 14 (37.8%) showed this condition. Statistic significance (p=0.0001) was found in comparing the mean scores obtained before and after acupuncture. Acupuncture had effects on the quality of sleep in the studied sample, presenting itself as a complementary technique for treating sleep disorders and consequently improving the quality of life in this population.

Comparing non-stationary and irregularly spaced time series

In this paper, we present approximate distributions for the ratio of the cumulative wavelet periodograms considering stationary and non-stationary time series generated from independent Gaussian processes. We also adapt an existing procedure to use this statistic and its approximate distribution in order to test if two regularly or irregularly spaced time series are realizations of the same generating process. Simulation studies show good size and power properties for the test statistic. An application with financial microdata illustrates the test usefulness. We conclude advocating the use of these approximate distributions instead of the ones obtained through randomizations, mainly in the case of irregular time series. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Viral Load Thresholds for Predicting New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: This study evaluated a wide range of viral load (VL) thresholds to identify a cut-point that best predicts new clinical events in children on stable highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods: Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the adjusted risk for World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 clinical events (WHO events) as a function of time-varying CD4, VL, and hemoglobin values in a cohort study of Latin American children on HAART >= 6 months. Models were fit using different VL cut-points between 400 and 50,000 copies per milliliter, with model fit evaluated on the basis of the minimum Akaike information criterion value, a standard model fit statistic. Results: Models were based on 67 subjects with WHO events out of 550 subjects on study. The VL cut-points of >2600 and >32,000 copies per milliliter corresponded to the lowest Akaike information criterion values and were associated with the highest hazard ratios (2.0, P = 0.015; and 2.1, P = 0.0058, respectively) for WHO events. Conclusions: In HIV-infected Latin American children on stable HAART, 2 distinct VL thresholds (>2600 and >32,000 copies/mL) were identified for predicting children at significantly increased risk for HIV-related clinical illness, after accounting for CD4 level, hemoglobin level, and other significant factors.

The local power of the gradient test

The asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the gradient test statistic is derived for a composite hypothesis under a sequence of Pitman alternative hypotheses converging to the null hypothesis at rate n(-1/2), n being the sample size. Comparisons of the local powers of the gradient, likelihood ratio, Wald and score tests reveal no uniform superiority property. The power performance of all four criteria in one-parameter exponential family is examined.

A Bayesian Approach for Decision Making on the Identification of Genes with Different Expression Levels: An Application to Escherichia coli Bacterium Data

A common interest in gene expression data analysis is to identify from a large pool of candidate genes the genes that present significant changes in expression levels between a treatment and a control biological condition. Usually, it is done using a statistic value and a cutoff value that are used to separate the genes differentially and nondifferentially expressed. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to identify genes differentially expressed calculating sequentially credibility intervals from predictive densities which are constructed using the sampled mean treatment effect from all genes in study excluding the treatment effect of genes previously identified with statistical evidence for difference. We compare our Bayesian approach with the standard ones based on the use of the t-test and modified t-tests via a simulation study, using small sample sizes which are common in gene expression data analysis. Results obtained report evidence that the proposed approach performs better than standard ones, especially for cases with mean differences and increases in treatment variance in relation to control variance. We also apply the methodologies to a well-known publicly available data set on Escherichia coli bacterium.