Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Sample size considerations and augmentation of computer experiments

Computer Experiments, consisting of a number of runs of a computer model with different inputs, are now common-place in scientific research. Using a simple fire model for illustration some guidelines are given for the size of a computer experiment. A graph is provided relating the error of prediction to the sample size which should be of use when designing computer experiments. Methods for augmenting computer experiments with extra runs are also described and illustrated. The simplest method involves adding one point at a time choosing that point with the maximum prediction variance. Another method that appears to work well is to choose points from a candidate set with maximum determinant of the variance covariance matrix of predictions.

A novel method for analysing lighting variance

Robust descriptor matching across varying lighting conditions is important for vision-based robotics. We present a novel strategy for quantifying the lighting variance of descriptors. The strategy works by utilising recovered low dimensional mappings from Isomap and our measure of the lighting variance of each of these mappings. The resultant metric allows different descriptors to be compared given a dataset and a set of keypoints. We demonstrate that the SIFT descriptor typically has lower lighting variance than other descriptors, although the result depends on semantic class and lighting conditions.

Real or imagined? A study exploring the existence of common method variance effects in road safety research

Common method variance (CMV) has received little attention within the field of road safety research despite a heavy reliance on self-report data. Two surveys were completed by 214 motorists over a two-month period, allowing associations between social desirability and key road safety variables and relationships between scales across the two survey waves to be examined. Social desirability was found to have a strong negative correlation with the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) sub-scales as well as age, but not with crashes and offences. Drivers who scored higher on the social desirability scale were also less likely to report aberrant driving behaviours as measured by the DBQ. Controlling for social desirability did not substantially alter the predictive relationship between the DBQ and the crash and offences variables. The strength of the correlations within and between the two waves were also compared with the results strongly suggesting that effects associated with CMV were present. Identification of CMV would be enhanced by the replication of this study with a larger sample size and comparing self-report data with official sources.

A method to quantify a descriptor's illumination variance

This paper presents a new metric, which we call the lighting variance ratio, for quantifying descriptors in terms of their variance to illumination changes. In many applications it is desirable to have descriptors that are robust to changes in illumination, especially in outdoor environments. The lighting variance ratio is useful for comparing descriptors and determining if a descriptor is lighting invariant enough for a given environment. The metric is analysed across a number of datasets, cameras and descriptors. The results show that the upright SIFT descriptor is typically the most lighting invariant descriptor.

A new online secondary path modelling method for feedforward active noise control systems

An online secondary path modelling method using a white noise as a training signal is required in many applications of active noise control (ANC) to ensure convergence of the system. Not continually injection of white noise during system operation makes the system more desirable. The purposes of the proposed method are two folds: controlling white noise by preventing continually injection, and benefiting white noise with a larger variance. The modelling accuracy and the convergence rate increase when a white noise with larger variance is used, however larger the variance increases the residual noise, which decreases performance of the system. This paper proposes a new approach for online secondary path modelling in feedfoward ANC systems. The proposed algorithm uses the advantages of the white noise with larger variance to model the secondary path, but the injection is stopped at the optimum point to increase performance of the system. Comparative simulation results shown in this paper indicate effectiveness of the proposed approach in controlling active noise.

Facile mutant identification via a single parental backcross method and application of whole genome sequencing based mapping pipelines

Forward genetic screens have identified numerous genes involved in development and metabolism, and remain a cornerstone of biological research. However, to locate a causal mutation, the practice of crossing to a polymorphic background to generate a mapping population can be problematic if the mutant phenotype is difficult to recognize in the hybrid F2 progeny, or dependent on parental specific traits. Here in a screen for leaf hyponasty mutants, we have performed a single backcross of an Ethane Methyl Sulphonate (EMS) generated hyponastic mutant to its parent. Whole genome deep sequencing of a bulked homozygous F2 population and analysis via the Next Generation EMS mutation mapping pipeline (NGM) unambiguously determined the causal mutation to be a single nucleotide polymorphisim (SNP) residing in HASTY, a previously characterized gene involved in microRNA biogenesis. We have evaluated the feasibility of this backcross approach using three additional SNP mapping pipelines; SHOREmap, the GATK pipeline, and the samtools pipeline. Although there was variance in the identification of EMS SNPs, all returned the same outcome in clearly identifying the causal mutation in HASTY. The simplicity of performing a single parental backcross and genome sequencing a small pool of segregating mutants has great promise for identifying mutations that may be difficult to map using conventional approaches.

Online estimation of Allan variance parameters

A new online method is presented for estimation of the angular randomwalk and rate randomwalk coefficients of inertial measurement unit gyros and accelerometers. In the online method, a state-space model is proposed, and recursive parameter estimators are proposed for quantities previously measured from offline data techniques such as the Allan variance method. The Allan variance method has large offline computational effort and data storage requirements. The technique proposed here requires no data storage and computational effort of approximately 100 calculations per data sample.

On-line estimation of Allan variance parameters

A new online method is presented for estimation of the angular random walk and rate random walk coefficients of IMU (inertial measurement unit) gyros and accelerometers. The online method proposes a state space model and proposes parameter estimators for quantities previously measured from off-line data techniques such as the Allan variance graph. Allan variance graphs have large off-line computational effort and data storage requirements. The technique proposed here requires no data storage and computational effort of O(100) calculations per data sample.

An improved computational method in structural dynamics

Purpose – In structural, earthquake and aeronautical engineering and mechanical vibration, the solution of dynamic equations for a structure subjected to dynamic loading leads to a high order system of differential equations. The numerical methods are usually used for integration when either there is dealing with discrete data or there is no analytical solution for the equations. Since the numerical methods with more accuracy and stability give more accurate results in structural responses, there is a need to improve the existing methods or develop new ones. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, a new time integration method is proposed mathematically and numerically, which is accordingly applied to single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) and multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) systems. Finally, the results are compared to the existing methods such as Newmark’s method and closed form solution. Findings – It is concluded that, in the proposed method, the data variance of each set of structural responses such as displacement, velocity, or acceleration in different time steps is less than those in Newmark’s method, and the proposed method is more accurate and stable than Newmark’s method and is capable of analyzing the structure at fewer numbers of iteration or computation cycles, hence less time-consuming. Originality/value – A new mathematical and numerical time integration method is proposed for the computation of structural responses with higher accuracy and stability, lower data variance, and fewer numbers of iterations for computational cycles.

Characterization of alluvial formation by stochastic modelling of paleo-fluvial processes: The concept and method

Modelling fluvial processes is an effective way to reproduce basin evolution and to recreate riverbed morphology. However, due to the complexity of alluvial environments, deterministic modelling of fluvial processes is often impossible. To address the related uncertainties, we derive a stochastic fluvial process model on the basis of the convective Exner equation that uses the statistics (mean and variance) of river velocity as input parameters. These statistics allow for quantifying the uncertainty in riverbed topography, river discharge and position of the river channel. In order to couple the velocity statistics and the fluvial process model, the perturbation method is employed with a non-stationary spectral approach to develop the Exner equation as two separate equations: the first one is the mean equation, which yields the mean sediment thickness, and the second one is the perturbation equation, which yields the variance of sediment thickness. The resulting solutions offer an effective tool to characterize alluvial aquifers resulting from fluvial processes, which allows incorporating the stochasticity of the paleoflow velocity.

Analysis of differential gene expression based on Bayesian estimation of variance

Gene expression is arguably the most important indicator of biological function. Thus identifying differentially expressed genes is one of the main aims of high throughout studies that use microarray and RNAseq platforms to study deregulated cellular pathways. There are many tools for analysing differentia gene expression from transciptomic datasets. The major challenge of this topic is to estimate gene expression variance due to the high amount of ‘background noise’ that is generated from biological equipment and the lack of biological replicates. Bayesian inference has been widely used in the bioinformatics field. In this work, we reveal that the prior knowledge employed in the Bayesian framework also helps to improve the accuracy of differential gene expression analysis when using a small number of replicates. We have developed a differential analysis tool that uses Bayesian estimation of the variance of gene expression for use with small numbers of biological replicates. Our method is more consistent when compared to the widely used cyber-t tool that successfully introduced the Bayesian framework to differential analysis. We also provide a user-friendly web based Graphic User Interface for biologists to use with microarray and RNAseq data. Bayesian inference can compensate for the instability of variance caused when using a small number of biological replicates by using pseudo replicates as prior knowledge. We also show that our new strategy to select pseudo replicates will improve the performance of the analysis. - See more at: http://www.eurekaselect.com/node/138761/article#sthash.VeK9xl5k.dpuf

A quasi-likelihood method for fractal-dimension estimation

We propose a simple method of constructing quasi-likelihood functions for dependent data based on conditional-mean-variance relationships, and apply the method to estimating the fractal dimension from box-counting data. Simulation studies were carried out to compare this method with the traditional methods. We also applied this technique to real data from fishing grounds in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

Method for comparing the capture efficiency of benthic sampling devices

Traditional comparisons between the capture efficiency of sampling devices have generally looked at the absolute differences between devices. We recommend that the signal-to-noise ratio be used when comparing the capture efficiency of benthic sampling devices. Using the signal-to-noise ratio rather than the absolute difference has the advantages that the variance is taken into account when determining how important the difference is, the hypothesis and minimum detectable difference can be made identical for all taxa, it is independent of the units used for measurement, and the sample-size calculation is independent of the variance. This new technique is illustrated by comparing the capture efficiency of a 0.05 m(2) van Veen grab and an airlift suction device, using samples taken from Heron and One Tree lagoons, Australia.