Car following model improvement for traffic safety metrics reproduction

Car Following models have a critical role in all microscopic traffic simulation models. Current microscopic simulation models are unable to mimic the unsafe behaviour of drivers as most are based on presumptions about the safe behaviour of drivers. Gipps model is a widely used car following model embedded in different micro-simulation models. This paper examines the Gipps car following model to investigate ways of improving the model for safety studies application. The paper puts forward some suggestions to modify the Gipps model to improve its capabilities to simulate unsafe vehicle movements (vehicles with safety indicators below critical thresholds). The result of the paper is one step forward to facilitate assessing and predicting safety at motorways using microscopic simulation. NGSIM as a rich source of vehicle trajectory data for a motorway is used to extract its relatively risky events. Short following headways and Time To Collision are used to assess critical safety event within traffic flow. The result shows that the modified proposed car following to a certain extent predicts the unsafe trajectories with smaller error values than the generic Gipps model.

A safety adapted car following model for traffic safety studies

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers exhibit safe behaviors. All the microscopic traffic simulation models include a car following model. This paper highlights the limitations of the Gipps car following model ability to emulate driver behavior for safety study purposes. A safety adapted car following model based on the Gipps car following model is proposed to simulate unsafe vehicle movements, with safety indicators below critical thresholds. The modifications are based on the observations of driver behavior in real data and also psychophysical notions. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the new model and short following headways and Time To Collision are employed to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. Risky events are extracted from available NGSIM data to evaluate the modified model against them. The results from simulation tests illustrate that the proposed model can predict the safety metrics better than the generic Gipps model. The outcome of this paper can potentially facilitate assessing and predicting traffic safety using microscopic simulation.

Evaluation of the GHR car following model for traffic safety studies

Traffic safety studies mandate more than what existing micro-simulation models can offer as they postulate that every driver exhibits a safe behaviour. All the microscopic traffic simulation models are consisting of a car-following model and the Gazis–Herman–Rothery (GHR) car-following model is a widely used model. This paper highlights the limitations of the GHR car-following model capability to model longitudinal driving behaviour for safety study purposes. This study reviews and compares different version of the GHR model. To empower the GHR model on precise metrics reproduction a new set of car-following model parameters is offered to simulate unsafe vehicle conflicts. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the new model and short following headways and Time to Collision are employed to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. Risky events are extracted from available NGSIM data to evaluate the modified model against the generic versions of the GHR model. The results from simulation tests illustrate that the proposed model does predict the safety metrics better than the generic GHR model. Additionally it can potentially facilitate assessing and predicting traffic facilities’ safety using microscopic simulation. The new model can predict Near-miss rear-end crashes.

Corneal changes following short-term rigid contact lens wear

Purpose: The aim of this cross-over study was to investigate the changes in corneal thickness, anterior and posterior corneal topography, corneal refractive power and ocular wavefront aberrations, following the short term use of rigid contact lenses. Method: Fourteen participants wore 4 different types of contact lenses (RGP lenses of 9.5 mm and 10.5 mm diameter, and for comparison a PMMA lens of 9.5 mm diameter and a soft silicone hydrogel lens) on 4 different days for a period of 8 h on each day. Measures were collected before and after contact lens wear and additionally on a baseline day. Results: Anterior corneal curvature generally showed a flattening with both of the RGP lenses and a steepening with the PMMA lens. A significant negative correlation was found between the change in corneal swelling and central and peripheral posterior corneal curvature (all p ≤ 0.001). RGP contact lenses caused a significant decrease in corneal refractive power (hyperopic shift) of approximately 0.5 D. The PMMA contact lenses caused the greatest corneal swelling in both the central (27.92 ± 15.49 μm, p < 0.001) and peripheral (17.78 ± 12.11 μm, p = 0.001) corneal regions, a significant flattening of the posterior cornea and an increase in ocular aberrations (all p ≤ 0.05). Conclusion: The corneal swelling associated with RGP lenses was relatively minor, but there was slight central corneal flattening and a clinically significant hyperopic change in corneal refractive power after the first day of lens wear. The PMMA contact lenses resulted in significant corneal swelling and reduced optical performance of the cornea.

Reduced resting skeletal muscle protein synthesis is rescued by resistance exercise and protein ingestion following short-term energy deficit

The myofibrillar protein synthesis (MPS) response to resistance exercise (REX) and protein ingestion during energy deficit (ED) is unknown. We determined, in young men (n=8) and women (n=7), protein signaling, resting post-absorptive MPS during energy balance [EB: 45 kcal∙(kg FFM∙d)-1] and after 5d of ED [30 kcal∙(kg FFM∙d)-1] as well as MPS while in ED after acute REX in the fasted state and with the ingestion of whey protein (15 and 30 g). Post-absorptive rates of MPS were 27% lower in ED than EB (P<0.001), but REX stimulated MPS to rates equal to EB. Ingestion of 15 and 30 g of protein after REX in ED increased MPS ~16 and ~34% above resting EB, (P<0.02). p70 S6Kthr389 phosphorylation increased above EB only with combined exercise and protein intake (~2-7 fold; P<0.05). In conclusion, short-term ED reduces post-absorptive MPS, however, a bout of REX in ED restores MPS to values observed at rest in EB. The ingestion of protein after REX further increases MPS above resting EB in a dose-dependent manner. We conclude that combining REX with increased protein availability after exercise enhances rates of skeletal muscle protein synthesis during short term ED and could, in the long term, preserve muscle mass.

Corneal changes following short-term miniscleral contact lens wear

Purpose To examine the influence of short-term miniscleral contact lens wear on corneal shape, thickness and anterior surface aberrations. Methods Scheimpflug imaging was captured before, immediately following and 3 hours after a short period (3 hours) of miniscleral contact lens wear for 10 young (mean 27 ± 5 years), healthy participants. Natural diurnal variations were considered by measuring baseline diurnal changes obtained on a separate control day without contact lens wear. Results Small but significant anterior corneal flattening was observed immediately following lens removal (overall mean 0.02 ± 0.03 mm, p < 0.001) which returned to baseline levels three hours after lens removal. During the three hour recovery period significant corneal thinning (-13.4 ± 10.5 μm) and posterior surface flattening (0.03 ± 0.02 mm) were also observed (both p < 0.01). The magnitude of posterior corneal flattening during recovery correlated with the amount of corneal thinning (r = 0.69, p = 0.03). Central corneal clearance (maximum tear reservoir depth) was not associated with corneal swelling following lens removal (r = -0.24, p > 0.05). An increase in lower-order corneal astigmatism Z(2,2) was also observed following lens wear (mean -0.144 ± 0.075 μm, p = 0.02). Conclusions Flattening of the anterior corneal surface was observed immediately following lens wear, while ‘rebound’ thinning and flattening of the posterior surface was evident following the recovery period. Modern miniscleral contact lenses that vault the cornea may slightly influence corneal shape and power but do not induce clinically significant corneal oedema during short-term wear.

Morphological changes in the conjunctiva, episclera and sclera following short-term miniscleral contact lens wear in rigid lens neophytes

PURPOSE To quantify the influence of short-term wear of miniscleral contact lenses on the morphology of the corneo-scleral limbus, the conjunctiva, episclera and sclera. METHODS OCT images of the anterior eye were captured before, immediately following 3h of wear and then 3h after removal of a miniscleral contact lens for 10 young (27±5 years) healthy participants (neophyte rigid lens wearers). The region of analysis encompassed 1mm anterior, to 3.5mm posterior to the scleral spur. Natural diurnal variations in thickness were measured on a separate day and compensated for in subsequent analyses. RESULTS Following 3h of lens wear, statistically significant tissue thinning was observed across all quadrants, with a mean decrease in thickness of -24.1±3.6μm (p<0.001), which diminished, but did not return to baseline 3h after lens removal (-16.9±1.9μm, p<0.001). The largest tissue compression was observed in the superior quadrant (-49.9±8.5μm, p<0.01) and in the annular zone 1.5mm from the scleral spur (-48.2±5.7μm), corresponding to the approximate edge of the lens landing zone. Compression of the conjunctiva/episclera accounted for about 70% of the changes. CONCLUSIONS Optimal fitting miniscleral contact lenses worn for three hours resulted in significant tissue compression in young healthy eyes, with the greatest thinning observed superiorly, potentially due to the additional force of the eyelid, with a partial recovery of compression 3h after lens removal. Most of the morphological changes occur in the conjunctiva/episclera layers.

Tissue compression following short-term miniscleral contact lens wear

To quantify regional (nasal, superior, temporal and inferior) and location specific (corneal and scleral) tissue compression following short-term miniscleral contact lens wear.

Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity : new evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and(4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country.

Effects of Sweetness and Energy in Drinks on Food Intake Following Exercise

Exercise is known to cause physiological changes that could affect the impact of nutrients on appetite control. This study was designed to assess the effect of drinks containing either sucrose or high-intensity sweeteners on food intake following exercise. Using a repeated-measures design, three drink conditions were employed: plain water (W), a low-energy drink sweetened with artificial sweeteners aspartame and acesulfame-K (L), and a high-energy, sucrose-sweetened drink (H). Following a period of challenging exercise (70% VO2 max for 50 min), subjects consumed freely from a particular drink before being offered a test meal at which energy and nutrient intakes were measured. The degree of pleasantness (palatability) of the drinks was also measured before and after exercise. At the test meal, energy intake following the artificially sweetened (L) drink was significantly greater than after water and the sucrose (H) drinks (p < 0.05). Compared with the artificially sweetened (L) drink, the high-energy (H) drink suppressed intake by approximately the energy contained in the drink itself. However, there was no difference between the water (W) and the sucrose (H) drink on test meal energy intake. When the net effects were compared (i.e., drink + test meal energy intake), total energy intake was significantly lower after the water (W) drink compared with the two sweet (L and H) drinks. The exercise period brought about changes in the perceived pleasantness of the water, but had no effect on either of the sweet drinks. The remarkably precise energy compensation demonstrated after the higher energy sucrose drink suggests that exercise may prime the system to respond sensitively to nutritional manipulations. The results may also have implications for the effect on short-term appetite control of different types of drinks used to quench thirst during and after exercise.

The power of educational podcasting : using short-format podcasts to reinforce tertiary student learning experiences in science

In 2007 I introduced short-format educational podcast resources that reinforced conceptual teaching and learning in an interdisciplinary tertiary science study area (biochemistry). This study aims to determine student attitudes to the perceived usefulness and benefit of short-format educational podcasts, and presents the findings (qualitative and quantitative) from surveys obtained from three offerings of the science teaching unit (2007, 2008 and 2009). Podcasts were recorded (MP3 audio files) separately from the instructive lecture sessions, and subsequent to the weekly lecture, short-format podcasts summarising the key learning objectives were integrated within the resources presented through the students learning management system (Blackboard). The vast majority (>88%) of students utilised the podcast resources, indicating a high level of acceptance and uptake for this portable educational technology. The respondents reported that podcasts focused their attention to core learning concepts and supported their understanding and learning of the lecture material. Furthermore, the data showed that respondents agreed strongly that podcasts assisted with study and revision for examinations and, somewhat surprisingly, there was a perception that podcasts positively impacted on examination performance. Overall, student users perceived that podcasting is as an effective and valuable educational tool that offers convenience and flexibility for their learning and understanding of a tertiary science study area, such as biochemistry.

Psychosocial predictors of rule following in hostels for women experiencing homelessness

This study examined the psychosocial factors impacting upon the rule-following behaviour of residents of a hostel providing crisis accommodation to women who are homeless. After their arrival, residents of a women’s hostel (N = 83) completed questionnaires assessing the Theory of Planned Behaviour constructs of attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control (PBC), and intentions related to rule-following while residing at the hostel. Perceived resident group norms for rule-following were assessed also. Follow-up staff evaluations of the target behaviour were completed after participants ceased their hostel residence. As expected, attitude, subjective norm, PBC, and group norm significantly predicted intention to follow hostel rules, and intention and PBC predicted rule following behaviour. As rule following is a crucial requirement for continuation of their stay, these findings can inform strategies to improve the experiences and outcomes of women’s short-term hostel stays.

High-resolution DNA melt curve analysis of the clustered, regularly interspaced short-palindromic-repeat locus of Campylobacter jejuni

A novel method for genotyping the clustered, regularly interspaced short-palindromic-repeat (CRISPR) locus of Campylobacter jejuni is described. Following real-time PCR, CRISPR products were subjected to high-resolution melt (HRM) analysis, a new technology that allows precise melt profile determination of amplicons. This investigation shows that the CRISPR HRM assay provides a powerful addition to existing C. jejuni genotyping methods and emphasizes the potential of HRM for genotyping short sequence repeats in other species

Ocular surface changes with short-term contact lens wear

Contact lenses are a common method for the correction of refractive errors of the eye. While there have been significant advancements in contact lens designs and materials over the past few decades, the lenses still represent a foreign object in the ocular environment and may lead to physiological as well as mechanical effects on the eye. When contact lenses are placed in the eye, the ocular anatomical structures behind and in front of the lenses are directly affected. This thesis presents a series of experiments that investigate the mechanical and physiological effects of the short-term use of contact lenses on anterior and posterior corneal topography, corneal thickness, the eyelids, tarsal conjunctiva and tear film surface quality. The experimental paradigm used in these studies was a repeated measures, cross-over study design where subjects wore various types of contact lenses on different days and the lenses were varied in one or more key parameters (e.g. material or design). Both, old and newer lens materials were investigated, soft and rigid lenses were used, high and low oxygen permeability materials were tested, toric and spherical lens designs were examined, high and low powers and small and large diameter lenses were used in the studies. To establish the natural variability in the ocular measurements used in the studies, each experiment also contained at least one “baseline” day where an identical measurement protocol was followed, with no contact lenses worn. In this way, changes associated with contact lens wear were considered in relation to those changes that occurred naturally during the 8 hour period of the experiment. In the first study, the regional distribution and magnitude of change in corneal thickness and topography was investigated in the anterior and posterior cornea after short-term use of soft contact lenses in 12 young adults using the Pentacam. Four different types of contact lenses (Silicone hydrogel/ Spherical/–3D, Silicone Hydrogel/Spherical/–7D, Silicone Hydrogel/Toric/–3D and HEMA/Toric/–3D) of different materials, designs and powers were worn for 8 hours each, on 4 different days. The natural diurnal changes in corneal thickness and curvature were measured on two separate days before any contact lens wear. Significant diurnal changes in corneal thickness and curvature within the duration of the study were observed and these were taken into consideration for calculating the contact lens induced corneal changes. Corneal thickness changed significantly with lens wear and the greatest corneal swelling was seen with the hydrogel (HEMA) toric lens with a noticeable regional swelling of the cornea beneath the stabilization zones, the thickest regions of the lenses. The anterior corneal surface generally showed a slight flattening with lens wear. All contact lenses resulted in central posterior corneal steepening, which correlated with the relative degree of corneal swelling. The corneal swelling induced by the silicone hydrogel contact lenses was typically less than the natural diurnal thinning of the cornea over this same period (i.e. net thinning). This highlights why it is important to consider the natural diurnal variations in corneal thickness observed from morning to afternoon to accurately interpret contact lens induced corneal swelling. In the second experiment, the relative influence of lenses of different rigidity (polymethyl methacrylate – PMMA, rigid gas permeable – RGP and silicone hydrogel – SiHy) and diameters (9.5, 10.5 and 14.0) on corneal thickness, topography, refractive power and wavefront error were investigated. Four different types of contact lenses (PMMA/9.5, RGP/9.5, RGP/10.5, SiHy/14.0), were worn by 14 young healthy adults for a period of 8 hours on 4 different days. There was a clear association between fluorescein fitting pattern characteristics (i.e. regions of minimum clearance in the fluorescein pattern) and the resulting corneal shape changes. PMMA lenses resulted in significant corneal swelling (more in the centre than periphery) along with anterior corneal steepening and posterior flattening. RGP lenses, on the other hand, caused less corneal swelling (more in the periphery than centre) along with opposite effects on corneal curvature, anterior corneal flattening and posterior steepening. RGP lenses also resulted in a clinically and statistically significant decrease in corneal refractive power (ranging from 0.99 to 0.01 D), large enough to affect vision and require adjustment in the lens power. Wavefront analysis also showed a significant increase in higher order aberrations after PMMA lens wear, which may partly explain previous reports of "spectacle blur" following PMMA lens wear. We further explored corneal curvature, thickness and refractive changes with back surface toric and spherical RGP lenses in a group of 6 subjects with toric corneas. The lenses were worn for 8 hours and measurements were taken before and after lens wear, as in previous experiments. Both lens types caused anterior corneal flattening and a decrease in corneal refractive power but the changes were greater with the spherical lens. The spherical lens also caused a significant decrease in WTR astigmatism (WRT astigmatism defined as major axis within 30 degrees of horizontal). Both the lenses caused slight posterior corneal steepening and corneal swelling, with a greater effect in the periphery compared to the central cornea. Eyelid position, lid-wiper and tarsal conjunctival staining were also measured in Experiment 2 after short-term use of the rigid and SiHy contact lenses. Digital photos of the external eyes were captured for lid position analysis. The lid-wiper region of the marginal conjunctiva was stained using fluorescein and lissamine green dyes and digital photos were graded by an independent masked observer. A grading scale was developed in order to describe the tarsal conjunctival staining. A significant decrease in the palpebral aperture height (blepharoptosis) was found after wearing of PMMA/9.5 and RGP/10.5 lenses. All three rigid contact lenses caused a significant increase in lid-wiper and tarsal staining after 8 hours of lens wear. There was also a significant diurnal increase in tarsal staining, even without contact lens wear. These findings highlight the need for better contact lens edge design to minimise the interactions between the lid and contact lens edge during blinking and more lubricious contact lens surfaces to reduce ocular surface micro-trauma due to friction and for. Tear film surface quality (TFSQ) was measured using a high-speed videokeratoscopy technique in Experiment 2. TFSQ was worse with all the lenses compared to baseline (PMMA/9.5, RGP/9.5, RGP/10.5, and SiHy/14) in the afternoon (after 8 hours) during normal and suppressed blinking conditions. The reduction in TFSQ was similar with all the contact lenses used, irrespective of their material and diameter. An unusual pattern of change in TFSQ in suppressed blinking conditions was also found. The TFSQ with contact lens was found to decrease until a certain time after which it improved to a value even better than the bare eye. This is likely to be due to the tear film drying completely over the surface of the contact lenses. The findings of this study also show that there is still a scope for improvement in contact lens materials in terms of better wettability and hydrophilicity in order to improve TFSQ and patient comfort. These experiments showed that a variety of changes can occur in the anterior eye as a result of the short-term use of a range of commonly used contact lens types. The greatest corneal changes occurred with lenses manufactured from older HEMA and PMMA lens materials, whereas modern SiHy and rigid gas permeable materials caused more subtle changes in corneal shape and thickness. All lenses caused signs of micro-trauma to the eyelid wiper and palpebral conjunctiva, although rigid lenses appeared to cause more significant changes. Tear film surface quality was also significantly reduced with all types of contact lenses. These short-term changes in the anterior eye are potential markers for further long term changes and the relative differences between lens types that we have identified provide an indication of areas of contact lens design and manufacture that warrant further development.

Comparison and modification of car following models toward a more accurate microscopic simulation parameters reproduction

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers of motor vehicles exhibit safe behaviours. Several car-following models are used in various micro-simulation models. This research compares the mainstream car following models’ capabilities of emulating precise driver behaviour parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison firstly illustrates which model is more robust in the metric reproduction. Secondly, the study conducted a series of sensitivity tests to further explore the behaviour of each model. Based on the outcome of these two steps exploration of the models, a modified structure and parameters adjustment for each car-following model is proposed to simulate more realistic vehicle movements, particularly headways and Time to Collision, below a certain critical threshold. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the modified models performance to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. The simulation tests outcomes indicate that the proposed modified models produce better frequency of critical Time to Collision than the generic models, while the improvement on the headway is not significant. The outcome of this paper facilitates traffic safety assessment using microscopic simulation.