Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis

Provides an accessible foundation to Bayesian analysis using real world models This book aims to present an introduction to Bayesian modelling and computation, by considering real case studies drawn from diverse fields spanning ecology, health, genetics and finance. Each chapter comprises a description of the problem, the corresponding model, the computational method, results and inferences as well as the issues that arise in the implementation of these approaches. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis: •Illustrates how to do Bayesian analysis in a clear and concise manner using real-world problems. •Each chapter focuses on a real-world problem and describes the way in which the problem may be analysed using Bayesian methods. •Features approaches that can be used in a wide area of application, such as, health, the environment, genetics, information science, medicine, biology, industry and remote sensing. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis is aimed at statisticians, researchers and practitioners who have some expertise in statistical modelling and analysis, and some understanding of the basics of Bayesian statistics, but little experience in its application. Graduate students of statistics and biostatistics will also find this book beneficial.

Multi-criteria optimization of group replacement schedules for distributed water pipeline assets

This thesis presents a multi-criteria optimisation study of group replacement schedules for water pipelines, which is a capital-intensive and service critical decision. A new mathematical model was developed, which minimises total replacement costs while maintaining a satisfactory level of services. The research outcomes are expected to enrich the body of knowledge of multi-criteria decision optimisation, where group scheduling is required. The model has the potential to optimise replacement planning for other types of linear asset networks resulting in bottom-line benefits for end users and communities. The results of a real case study show that the new model can effectively reduced the total costs and service interruptions.

A new multi-objective model to optimise rail transport scheduler

The sugarcane transport system plays a critical role in the overall performance of Australia’s sugarcane industry. An inefficient sugarcane transport system interrupts the raw sugarcane harvesting process, delays the delivery of sugarcane to the mill, deteriorates the sugar quality, increases the usage of empty bins, and leads to the additional sugarcane production costs. Due to these negative effects, there is an urgent need for an efficient sugarcane transport schedule that should be developed by the rail schedulers. In this study, a multi-objective model using mixed integer programming (MIP) is developed to produce an industry-oriented scheduling optimiser for sugarcane rail transport system. The exact MIP solver (IBM ILOG-CPLEX) is applied to minimise the makespan and the total operating time as multi-objective functions. Moreover, the so-called Siding neighbourhood search (SNS) algorithm is developed and integrated with Sidings Satisfaction Priorities (SSP) and Rail Conflict Elimination (RCE) algorithms to solve the problem in a more efficient way. In implementation, the sugarcane transport system of Kalamia Sugar Mill that is a coastal locality about 1050 km northwest of Brisbane city is investigated as a real case study. Computational experiments indicate that high-quality solutions are obtainable in industry-scale applications.

What if you're really different? Case studies of children with high functioning autism participating in the Get REAL programme who had atypical learning trajectories.

Evaluation of the Get REAL programme in an inclusive primary school setting has indicated its effectiveness in promoting pro-social behaviour for children with high functioning Autism. However, two children with co-morbid diagnoses and complex personal circumstances showed less consistent improvements. In order to explain their unique trajectories, not readily derived from quantitative studies, an exploratory case study approach was used to examine contextual influences on patterns of progress. Multiple data sources included coded video footage from the Get REAL programme, school reports on conduct, and parents and classroom teacher reports using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. While results provide support for the efficacy of the Get REAL programme for the two children, they also highlight the value of co-ordinated strategies and collaborative individualised approaches in more complex cases. This paper outlines the Get REAL intervention and a range of other school and support agency strategies impacting progress.

Chirp-spread-spectrum-based real time location system for construction safety management: A case study

Observing the working procedure of construction workers is an effective means of maintaining the safety performance of a construction project. It is also difficult to achieve due to a high worker-to-safety-officer ratio. There is an imminent need for the development of a tool to assist in the real-time monitoring of workers, in order to reduce the number of construction accidents. The development and application of a real time locating system (RTLS) based on the Chirp Spread Spectrum (CSS) technique is described in this paper for tracking the real-time position of workers on construction sites. Experiments and tests were carried out both on- and off-site to verify the accuracy of static and dynamic targets by the system, indicating an average error of within one metre. Experiments were also carried out to verify the ability of the system to identify workers’ unsafe behaviours. Wireless data transfer was used to simplify the deployment of the system. The system was deployed in a public residential construction project and proved to be quick and simple to use. The cost of the developed system is also reported to be reasonable (around 1800USD) in this study and is much cheaper than the cost of other RTLS. In addition, the CCS technique is shown to provide an economical solution with reasonable accuracy compared with other positioning systems, such as ultra wideband. The study verifies the potential of the CCS technique to provide an effective and economical aid in the improvement of safety management in the construction industry.

Communication Architecture Design for Real-Time Networked Control Systems

Networked control over data networks has received increasing attention in recent years. Among many problems in networked control systems (NCSs) is the need to reduce control latency and jitter and to deal with packet dropouts. This paper introduces our recent progress on a queuing communication architecture for real-time NCS applications, and simple strategies for dealing with packet dropouts. Case studies for a middle-scale process or multiple small-scale processes are presented for TCP/IP based real-time NCSs. Variations of network architecture design are modelled, simulated, and analysed for evaluation of control latency and jitter performance. It is shown that a simple bandwidth upgrade or adding hierarchy does not necessarily bring benefits for performance improvement of control latency and jitter. A co-design of network and control is necessary to maximise the real-time control performance of NCSs

The exploration of consumer power in online brand communities : a comparison case study in Australia and China

Aided by the development of information technology, the balance of power in the market place is rapidly shifting from marketers towards consumers and nowhere is this more obvious than in the online environment (Denegri-Knott, Zwick, & Schroeder, 2006; Moynagh & Worsley, 2002; Newcomer, 2000; Samli, 2001). From the inception and continuous development of the Internet, consumers are becoming more empowered. They can choose what they want to click on the Internet, they can shop and transact payments, watch and download video, chat with others, be it friends or even total strangers. Especially in online communities, like-minded consumers share and exchange information, ideas and opinions. One form of online community is the online brand community, which gathers specific brand lovers. As with any social unit, people form different roles in the community and exert different effects on each other. Their interaction online can greatly influence the brand and marketers. A comprehensive understanding of the operation of this special group form is essential to advancing marketing thought and practice (Kozinets, 1999). While online communities have strongly shifted the balance of power from marketers to consumers, the current marketing literature is sparse on power theory (Merlo, Whitwell, & Lukas, 2004). Some studies have been conducted from an economic point of view (Smith, 1987), however their application to marketing has been limited. Denegri-Knott (2006) explored power based on the struggle between consumers and marketers online and identified consumer power formats such as control over the relationship, information, aggregation and participation. Her study has built a foundation for future power studies in the online environment. This research project bridges the limited marketing literature on power theory with the growing recognition of online communities among marketing academics and practitioners. Specifically, this study extends and redefines consumer power by exploring the concept of power in online brand communities, in order to better understand power structure and distribution in this context. This research investigates the applicability of the factors of consumer power identified by Denegri-Knott (2006) to the online brand community. In addition, by acknowledging the model proposed by McAlexander, Schouten, & Koenig (2002), which emphasized that community study should focus on the role of consumers and identifying multiple relationships among the community, this research further explores how member role changes will affect power relationships as well as consumer likings of the brand. As a further extension to the literature, this study also considers cultural differences and their effect on community member roles and power structure. Based on the study of Hofstede (1980), Australia and China were chosen as two distinct samples to represent differences in two cultural dimensions, namely individualism verses collectivism and high power distance verses low power distance. This contribution to the research also helps answer the research gap identified by Muñiz Jr & O'Guinn (2001), who pointed out the lack of cross cultural studies within the online brand community context. This research adopts a case study methodology to investigate the issues identified above. Case study is an appropriate research strategy to answer “how” and “why” questions of a contemporary phenomenon in real-life context (Yin, 2003). The online brand communities of “Haloforum.net” in Australia and “NGA.cn” in China were selected as two cases. In-depth interviews were used as the primary data collection method. As a result of the geographical dispersion and the preference of a certain number of participants, online synchronic interviews via MSN messenger were utilized along with the face-to-face interviews. As a supplementary approach, online observation was carried over two months, covering a two week period prior to the interviews and a six week period following the interviews. Triangulation techniques were used to strengthen the credibility and validity of the research findings (Yin, 2003). The findings of this research study suggest a new definition of power in an online brand community. This research also redefines the consumer power types and broadens the brand community model developed by McAlexander et al. (2002) in an online context by extending the various relationships between brand and members. This presents a more complete picture of how the perceived power relationships are structured in the online brand community. A new member role is discovered in the Australian online brand community in addition to the four member roles identified by Kozinets (1999), in contrast however, all four roles do not exist in the Chinese online brand community. The research proposes a model which links the defined power types and identified member roles. Furthermore, given the results of the cross-cultural comparison between Australia and China showed certain discrepancies, the research suggests that power studies in the online brand community should be country-specific. This research contributes to the body of knowledge on online consumer power, by applying it to the context of an online brand community, as well as considering factors such as cross cultural difference. Importantly, it provides insights for marketing practitioners on how to best leverage consumer power to serve brand objective in online brand communities. This, in turn, should lead to more cost effective and successful communication strategies. Finally, the study proposes future research directions. The research should be extended to communities of different sizes, to different extents of marketer control over the community, to the connection between online and offline activities within the brand community, and (given the cross-cultural findings) to different countries. In addition, a greater amount of research in this area is recommended to determine the generalizability of this study.

The public management issues of access to electronic gaming machines (EGMs) : a case study of policy in Victoria, its effects and requirements for evaluation

Wynne and Schaffer (2003) have highlighted both the strong growth of gambling activity in recent years, and the revenue streams this has generated for governments and communities. Gambling activities and the revenues derived from them have, unsurprisingly, therefore also been seen as a way in which to increase economic development in deprived areas (Jinkner-Lloyd, 1996). Consequently, according to Brown et al (2003), gambling is now a large taxation revenue earner for many western governments, at both federal and state levels, worldwide (for example UK, USA, Australia). In size and importance, the Australian gambling industry in particular has grown significantly over the last three decades, experiencing a fourfold increase in real gambling turnover. There are, however, also concerns expressed about gambling and Electronic Gaming in particular, as illustrated in economic, social and ethical terms in Oddo (1997). There are also spatial aspects to understanding these issues. Marshall’s (1998) study, for example, highlights that benefits from gambling are more likely to accrue at the macro as opposed to the local level, because of centralised tax gathering and spending of tax revenues, whilst localities may suffer from displacement of activities with higher multipliers than the institutions with EGMs that replace them. This also highlights a regional context of costs, where benefits accrue to the centre, but the costs accrue to the regions and localities, as simultaneously resources leave those communities through both the gambling activities themselves (in the form of revenue for the EGM owners), and the government (through taxes).

Case study of collaborative learning in two contexts : what do English language learners gain?

This chapter describes the use of collaborative learning as an approach to enhance English language learning by students from non-English speaking backgrounds. Communicative Language Teaching (CLT) principles were applied to two case studies, one comprising of undergraduate English as Foreign Language Learners in Turkey and the other involved English as Second Language learners in Australia. Social constructivism inspired communicative language teaching using collaborative learning activities such as team work, interactive peer-based learning, and iterative stages of learning matrix were incorporated to enhance students' learning outcomes. Data collected after the CLT intervention was made up of field notes, reflective logs and focus group interviews which revealed complementarities, as well as subtle differences between the two cases. The findings were summarized as learning dispositions; speaking fluency and confidence; learning diagnostics and completion deficiencies; task engagement, flow theory and higher order thinking skills; in addition to self efficacy and development of student identity. CLT has the potential to provide a more inclusive and dynamic education for diverse learners through vital outcomes and benefits which resonate with the real world.

Real Design of a Virtual Landscape : Designing and building a landscape in Second Life

3D Virtual Environments (VE) are real; they exist as digital worlds with the advantage of having none of the constraints of the real world. As such they are the perfect training ground for design students who can create, build and experiment with design solutions without the constraint of real world projects. This paper reports on an educational setting used to explore a model for using VE such as Second Life (SL) developed by Linden Labs in California, as a collaborative environment for design education. A postgraduate landscape architecture learning environment within a collaborative design unit was developed to integrate this model where the primary focus was the application of three-dimensional tools within design, not as a presentation tool, but rather as a design tool. The focus of the unit and its aims and objectives will be outlined before describing the use of SL in the unit. Attention is focused on the collaboration and learning experience before discussing the outcomes, student feedback, future projects using this model and potential for further research. The outcome of this study aims to contribute to current research on teaching and learning design in interactive VE’s. We present a case study of our first application of this model.

More than experiential learning or volunteering : a case study of community service learning within the Australian context

Community service learning is the integration of experiential learning and community service into coursework such that community needs are met and students gain both professional skills and a sense of civic responsibility. A critical component is student reflection. This paper provides an example of the application of community service learning within an undergraduate health unit at the Queensland University of Technology. Based on survey data from 36 program participants, it demonstrates the impact of CSL on student outcomes. Results show that students benefited by developing autonomy through real world experiences, through increased self-assurance and achievement of personal growth, through gaining new insights into the operations of community service organisations and through moving towards becoming responsible citizens. Students expect their CSL experience to have long-lasting impact on their lives, with two-thirds of participants noting that they would like to continue volunteering as part of their future development.

Practice briefing : Is BOT the best financing model to procure infrastructure projects? A case study of the Hong Kong-Shuhai-Macau Bridge

Abstract: Purpose – Several major infrastructure projects in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) have been delivered by the build-operate-transfer (BOT) model since the 1960s. Although the benefits of using BOT have been reported abundantly in the contemporary literature, some BOT projects were less successful than the others. This paper aims to find out why this is so and to explore whether BOT is the best financing model to procure major infrastructure projects. Design/methodology/approach – The benefits of BOT will first be reviewed. Some completed BOT projects in Hong Kong will be examined to ascertain how far the perceived benefits of BOT have been materialized in these projects. A highly profiled project, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, which has long been promoted by the governments of the People's Republic of China, Macau Special Administrative Region and the HKSAR that BOT is the preferred financing model, but suddenly reverted back to the traditional financing model to be funded primarily by the three governments with public money instead, will be studied to explore the true value of the BOT financial model. Findings – Six main reasons for this radical change are derived from the analysis: shorter take-off time for the project; difference in legal systems causing difficulties in drafting BOT agreements; more government control on tolls; private sector uninterested due to unattractive economic package; avoid allegation of collusion between business and the governments; and a comfortable financial reserve possessed by the host governments. Originality/value – The findings from this paper are believed to provide a better understanding to the real benefits of BOT and the governments' main decision criteria in delivering major infrastructure projects.

Dislodgement of commercial property public debt markets : the case of U.S. and Australia

The paper investigates if there are any discernible trends in the U.S. and Australian commercial property public debt markets with the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Commercial mortgage-backed securities and unsecured bonds issued by real estate investment trusts for the period 2000 to Q3:2009 are reviewed. It is shown that events in the equity markets have an impact on the pricing of these two instruments. Furthermore, the impact of subdued activity in these financing instruments on the commercial property market is discussed.

Determinants and market impact of seasoned equity offerings : the case of A-REITs

The paper examines the decision by Australian Real Estate Trusts (A-REITs) to issue seasoned equity offerings from 2000 - 2008 and stock market reaction to the offerings. The findings reveal that highly leveraged A-REITs with variable earnings are less likely to issue seasoned equity offerings. Inconsistent results for structure and type of properties held by the A-REIT do not allow for inference to be drawn. Similar to previous studies of seasoned equity offerings, we find a significant negative abnormal return associated with their announcement and no evidence of excessive leakage of information. Furthermore, market reaction differences to announcements of SEOs for the pre-global financial crisis (GFC) (2000-2006) and GFC eras (2007-2008) are noted with GFC era shareholders incurring larger abnormal return losses at 1.13% in comparison to the pre-GFC era shareholder loss of 0.34% on the SEO announcement day. Cross-sectional regressions show that the issued amount, leverage and profitability are significant factors affecting abnormal returns. Growth opportunities, tangibility, operating risk, size of A-REIT and other variables capturing A-REIT structure and property types held do not have an impact on abnormal returns

A brush with the real world : the future of inertial motion capture in live performance

3D Motion capture is a medium that plots motion, typically human motion, converting it into a form that can be represented digitally. It is a fast evolving field and recent inertial technology may provide new artistic possibilities for its use in live performance. Although not often used in this context, motion capture has a combination of attributes that can provide unique forms of collaboration with performance arts. The inertial motion capture suit used for this study has orientation sensors placed at strategic points on the body to map body motion. Its portability, real-time performance, ease of use, and its immunity from line-of-sight problems inherent in optical systems suggest it would work well as a live performance technology. Many animation techniques can be used in real-time. This research examines a broad cross-section of these techniques using four practice-led cases to assess the suitability of inertial motion capture to live performance. Although each case explores different visual possibilities, all make use of the performativity of the medium, using either an improvisational format or interactivity among stage, audience and screen that would be difficult to emulate any other way. A real-time environment is not capable of reproducing the depth and sophistication of animation people have come to expect through media. These environments take many hours to render. In time the combination of what can be produced in real-time and the tools available in a 3D environment will no doubt create their own tree of aesthetic directions in live performance. The case study looks at the potential of interactivity that this technology offers.