Econometric analysis of stuctural systems with permanent and transitory shocks

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work of Blanchard and Quah [1989. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The American Economic Review 79, 655–673], and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks cannot contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identification schemes used by Wickens and Motto [2001. Estimating shocks and impulse response functions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 371–387], Shapiro and Watson [1988. Sources of business cycle fluctuations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 3, 111–148], King et al. [1991. Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review 81, 819–840], Gali [1992. How well does the ISLM model fit postwar US data? Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 709–735; 1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations? American Economic Review 89, 249–271] and Fisher [2006. The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of Political Economy 114, 413–451].

Identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks in a small open economy

The standard Blanchard-Quah (BQ) decomposition forces aggregate demand and supply shocks to be orthogonal. However, this assumption is problematic for a nation with an inflation target. The very notion of inflation targeting means that monetary policy reacts to changes in aggregate supply. This paper employs a modification of the BQ procedure that allows for correlated shifts in aggregate supply and demand. It is found that shocks to Australian aggregate demand and supply are highly correlated. The estimated shifts in the aggregate demand and supply curves are then used to measure the effects of inflation targeting on the Australian inflation rate and level of GDP.

Why do so few hold stocks : theory and evidence

This study develops a life-cycle model where investors make investment decisions in a realistic environment. Model results show that personal illiquid projects (housing and children), fixed costs (once-off/per-period participation costs plus variable/fixed transaction costs) and endogenous risky human capital (with permanent, transitory and disastrous shocks) together are able to address both the non-participation puzzle and the age-effects puzzle. Empirical implications of the model are examined using Heckman’s two-step method with the latest five Surveys of Consumer Finance (SCF). Regression results show that liquidity, informational cost and human capital are indeed the major determinants of participation and asset allocation decisions at different stages of an investor’s life.

Higher uptake of long-acting reversible and permanent methods of contraception by Australian women living in rural and remote areas

Objectives: To examine factors associated with the uptake of i) long-acting reversible, ii) permanent and iii) traditional contraceptive methods among Australian women. Methods: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health born in 1973–78 reported on their contraceptive use at three surveys: 2003, 2006 and 2009. The participants were 5,849 women aged 25–30 in 2003 randomly sampled from Medicare. The main outcome measure was current contraceptive method at age 28–33 years categorised as long-acting reversible methods (implant, IUD, injection), permanent (tubal ligation, vasectomy), and traditional methods (oral contraceptive pills, condoms, withdrawal, safe period). Results: Compared to women living in major cities, women in inner regional areas were more likely to use long-acting (OR=1.26, 95%CI 1.03–1.55) or permanent methods (OR=1.43, 95%CI 1.17–1.76). Women living in outer regional/remote areas were more likely than women living in cities to use long-acting (OR=1.65, 95%CI 1.31–2.08) or permanent methods (OR=1.69, 95%CI 1.43–2.14). Conclusions: Location of residence is an important factor in women's choices about long-acting and permanent contraception in addition to the number and age of their children. Implications: Further research is needed to understand the role of geographical location in women's access to contraceptive options in Australia.

Youth, Sport and the Social Inclusion Agenda

The purpose of this paper is to assess aspects of the British Government's attempts to use sporting participation as a vehicle to re-integrate socially disadvantaged, excluded and 'at-risk' youth into mainstream society. A number of organisations, policy-makers, commentators, and practitioners with a stake in the 'sport and social inclusion agenda' were interviewed. General agreement was found on a number of points: that the field was overly crowded with policies, programmes and initiatives; that the field worked in a 'bottom-up' way, with the most significant factor determining success being effective local workers with good networks and cultural access; that the dichotomising rhetoric of inclusion/exclusion was counter-productive; that the notion of the 'at-risk youth' was problematic and unhelpful; and that they all now dealt with a marketplace, where 'clients' had to be enrolled in their own reformation. There was also disagreement on a number of points: that policy acts as a relatively accurate template for practice, as opposed to the argument that it was simply regarded as a cluster of suggestions for practice; that policy was exceptionally piecemeal in its formulation and application, as opposed to regarding policy as necessarily targeted and dispersed; and that the inclusion agenda was largely politically driven and transitory, as opposed to the optimistic view that it had become ingrained in local practice. Finally, the paper examines some issues that are the most likely points of contribution by researchers in the area: that more research needs to be done on the processes of identity formation associated with participation in sport; that more effective programme evaluation needs to be done for such forms of governmental intervention to work properly; and that the relationship between different kinds of physical activity and social and personal change needs to be more thoroughly theorised.

Fold back current control and admittance protection scheme for a distribution network containing distributed generators

Islanded operation, protection, reclosing and arc extinguishing are some of the challenging issues related to the connection of converter interfaced distributed generators (DGs) into a distribution network. The isolation of upstream faults in grid connected mode and fault detection in islanded mode using overcurrent devices are difficult. In the event of an arc fault, all DGs must be disconnected in order to extinguish the arc. Otherwise, they will continue to feed the fault, thus sustaining the arc. However, the system reliability can be increased by maximising the DG connectivity to the system: therefore, the system protection scheme must ensure that only the faulted segment is removed from the feeder. This is true even in the case of a radial feeder as the DG can be connected at various points along the feeder. In this paper, a new relay scheme is proposed which, along with a novel current control strategy for converter interfaced DGs, can isolate permanent and temporary arc faults. The proposed protection and control scheme can even coordinate with reclosers. The results are validated through PSCAD/EMTDC simulation and MATLAB calculations.

The 1989 Comprehensive Plan of Action (CPA) and refugee policy in Southeast Asia : twenty years forward what has changed?

In 2012, the only South East Asian countries that have ratified the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees (hereafter referred to as the 1951 Convention and 1967 Protocol) is Philippines (signed 1954), Cambodia (signed 1995) and Timor Leste (signed 2001). Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have annual asylum seeking populations from Myanmar, South Asia and Middle East, that are estimated to be at 15 000-20 000 per country (UNHCR 2012). The lack of a permanent and formal asylum processing process in these countries means that that asylum-seeking populations in the region are reliant on the local offices of the United Nations High Commission for Refugees based in the region to process their claims. These offices rely upon the good will of these governments to have a presence near detection camps and in capital cities to process claims of those who manage to reach the UNHCR representative office. The only burden sharing mechanism within the region primarily exists under the Bali Process on People Smuggling, Trafficking in Persons and Related Transnational Crime (the Bali Process), introduced in 2002. The Bali Process refers to an informal cooperative agreement amongst the states from the Asia-Pacific region, with Australia and Indonesia as the co-chairs, which discusses its namesake: primarily anti-people smuggling activities and migration protocols. There is no provision within this process to discuss the development of national asylum seeking legislation, processes for domestic processing of asylum claims or burden sharing in contrast to other regions such as Africa and South America (i.e. 2009 African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of the Internally Displaced, 1969 African Union Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa and 1984 Cartagena Declaration on Refugees [Americas]) (PEF 2010: 19).

Consent for third molar tooth extractions in Australia and New Zealand: A review of current practice

Background Informed consent is the legal requirement to educate a patient about a proposed medical treatment or procedure so that he or she can make informed decisions. The purpose of the study was to examine the current practice for obtaining informed consent for third molar tooth extractions (wisdom teeth) by Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons in Australia and New Zealand. Methods An online survey was sent to 180 consultant Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons in Australia and New Zealand. Surgeons were asked to answer (yes/no) whether they routinely warned of a specific risk of third molar tooth extraction in their written consent. Results 71 replies were received (39%). The only risks that surgeons agreed should be routinely included in written consent were a general warning of infection (not alveolar osteitis), inferior alveolar nerve damage (temporary and permanent) and lingual nerve damage (temporary and permanent). Conclusions There is significant variability among Australian and New Zealand Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons regarding risk disclosure for third molar tooth extractions. We aim to improve consistency in consent for third molar extractions by developing an evidence-based consent form.

Information flow, trading activity and commodity futures volatility

Based on unique news data relating to gold and crude oil, we investigate how news volume and sentiment, shocks in trading activity, market depth and trader positions unrelated to information flow covary with realized volatility. Positive shocks to the rate of news arrival, and negative shocks to news sentiment exhibit the largest effects. After controlling for the level of news flow and cross-correlations, net trader positions play only a minor role. These findings are at odds with those of [Wang (2002a). The Journal of Futures Markets, 22, 427–450; Wang (2002b). The Financial Review, 37, 295–316], but are consistent with the previous literature which doesn't find a strong link between volatility and trader positions.

The Innovation Management Program (IMP) : a holistic approach to managing change in knowledge based firms

Innovation Management (IM) in most knowledge based firms is used on an adhoc basis where senior managers use this term to leverage competitive edge without understanding its true meaning and how its robust application in organisation impacts organisational performance. There have been attempts in the manufacturing industry to harness the innovative potential of the business and apprehend its use as a point of difference to improve financial and non financial outcomes. However further work is required to innovatively extrapolate the lessons learnt to introduce incremental and/or radical innovation to knowledge based firms. An international structural engineering firm has been proactive in exploring and implementing this idea and has forged an alliance with the Queensland University of Technology to start the Innovation Management Program (IMP). The aim was to develop a permanent and sustainable program with which innovation can be woven through the fabric of the organisation. There was an intention to reinforce the firms’ vision and reinvigorate ideas and create new options that help in its realisation. This paper outlines the need for innovation in knowledge based firms and how this consulting engineering firm reacted to this exigency. The development of the Innovation Management Program, its different themes (and associated projects) and how they integrate to form a holistic model is also discussed. The model is designed around the need of providing professional qualification improvement opportunities for staff, setting-up organised, structured & easily accessible knowledge repositories to capture tacit and explicit knowledge and implement efficient project management strategies with a view to enhance client satisfaction. A Delphi type workshop is used to confirm the themes and projects. Some of the individual projects and their expected outcomes are also discussed. A questionnaire and interviews were used to collect data to select appropriate candidates responsible for leading these projects. Following an in-depth analysis of preliminary research results, some recommendations on the selection process will also be presented.

Novel corrosion sensor based on carbon nanotube composites for structural health monitoring

Bridges are important infrastructures of all nations and are required for transportation of goods as well as human. A catastrophic failure can result in loss of lives and enormous financial hardship to the nation. Hence, there is an urgent need to monitor our infrastructures to prolong their life span, at the same time catering for heavier and faster moving traffics. Although various kinds of sensors are now available to monitor the health of the structures due to corrosion, they do not provide permanent and long term measurements. This paper investigates the fabrication of Carbon Nanotube (CNT) based composite sensors for structural health monitoring. The CNTs, a key material in nanotechnology has aroused great interest in the research community due to their remarkable mechanical, electrochemical, piezoresistive and other physical properties. Multi-wall CNT (MWCNT)/Nafion composite sensors were fabricated to evaluate their electrical properties when subjected to chemical solutions, to simulate a chemical reaction due to corrosion and real life corrosion experimental tests. The electrical resistance of the sensor electrode was dramatically changed due to corrosion. The novel sensor is expected to effectively detect corrosion in structures based on the measurement of electrical impedances of the CNT composite.

PALLAS : limiting indications for dronedarone treatment of atrial fibrillation.

Atrial fibrillation increases the risk of stroke. Dronedarone has been shown to reduce the composite of hospitalizations due to cardiovascular events or death, in subjects with intermittent atrial fibrillation or flutter. Recently, dronedarone has been tested in subjects with permanent atrial fibrillation in the PALLAS (permanent atrial fibrillation outcome study using dronedarone on top of standard therapy) trial, and this clinical trial is evaluated in this paper. PALLAS was stopped early as there was an increased incidence of cardiovascular events in the dronedarone group. Dronedarone also increased the rate of hospitalizations in PALLAS. As a result of PALLAS, dronedarone has been contraindicated in permanent atrial fibrillation. The outcomes of PALLAS highlight a discontinuity between dronedarone actions in permanent and intermittent atrial fibrillation. The mechanism(s) underlying the detrimental effects of dronedarone in permanent atrial fibrillation are unknown at present and need to be investigated.

Formation of nanostructured porous Cu-Au surfaces : the influence of cationic sites on (electro)-catalysis

The fabrication of nanostructured bimetallic materials through electrochemical routes offers the ability to control the composition and shape of the final material that can then be effectively applied as (electro)-catalysts. In this work a clean and transitory hydrogen bubble templating method is employed to generate porous Cu–Au materials with a highly anisotropic nanostructured interior. Significantly, the co-electrodeposition of copper and gold promotes the formation of a mixed bimetallic oxide surface which does not occur at the individually electrodeposited materials. Interestingly, the surface is dominated by Au(I) oxide species incorporated within a Cu2O matrix which is extremely effective for the industrially important (electro)-catalytic reduction of 4-nitrophenol. It is proposed that an aurophilic type of interaction takes place between both oxidized gold and copper species which stabilizes the surface against further oxidation and facilitates the binding of 4-nitrophenol to the surface and increases the rate of reaction. An added benefit is that very low gold loadings are required typically less than 2 wt% for a significant enhancement in performance to be observed. Therefore the ability to create a partially oxidized Cu–Au surface through a facile electrochemical route that uses a clean template consisting of only hydrogen bubbles should be of benefit for many more important reactions.

Carbon nanotube composite sensor for structural health monitoring of bridge structures

Bridges are important infrastructures of all nations and are required for transportation of goods as well as human. A catastrophic failure can result in loss of lives and enormous financial hardship to the nation. Although various kinds of sensors are now available to monitor the health of the structures due to corrosion, they do not provide permanent and long term measurements. This paper investigates the fabrication of Carbon Nanotube (CNT) based composite sensors for corrosion detection of structures. Multi-wall CNT (MWCNT)/Nafion composite sensors were fabricated to evaluate their electrical properties for corrosion detection. The test specimens were subjected to real life corrosion experimental tests and the results confirm that the electrical resistance of the sensor electrode was dramatically changed due to corrosion.

Responsible reconstruction : The architect's role

This paper investigates the role of the architect in post-disaster reconstruction and questions their ability to facilitate per- manent building solutions. There is an ever-increasing population of refugees and internally displaced persons due to disasters and conflicts who have a basic need for shelter. To date, housing solutions for such people has tended to focus on short-term, temporary shelter solutions that have been largely unsuccessful. This increasing demand for shelter has led to an emerging group of architects skilled in post-disaster reconstruction. These architects acknowledge that shelter is critical to survival, but believe architects should focus on rebuilding in a manner that is quick, durable but permanent. They believe that an architect skilled in post-disaster reconstruction can produce solutions that meet the requirement of the emergency phase, through to semi-permanent and even permanent homes, without wasting time and money on interim shelters. Case Study Research was used to examine and evaluate the assistance provided by Emergency Architects Australia (EAA) to the Kei Gold community in the Solomon Islands after the 2007 earthquake and tsunami. The results indicate that an architect’s response to a disaster must go beyond providing temporary shelter; they must create permanent building solutions that respond to the site and the culture while servicing the needs of the communi- ty. The vernacular reconstruction methods implemented by EAA in Kei Gold Village have been successful in develop- ing permanent housing solutions. Further research and development is required to gain a broader understanding of the role of the architect in disasters of varying scales and typologies.