Using approximate Bayesian computation to estimate transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.

Interrupting malaria transmission: quantifying the impact of interventions in regions of low to moderate transmission

Malaria has been eliminated from over 40 countries with an additional 39 currently planning for, or committed to, elimination. Information on the likely impact of available interventions, and the required time, is urgently needed to help plan resource allocation. Mathematical modelling has been used to investigate the impact of various interventions; the strength of the conclusions is boosted when several models with differing formulation produce similar data. Here we predict by using an individual-based stochastic simulation model of seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission that transmission can be interrupted and parasite reintroductions controlled in villages of 1,000 individuals where the entomological inoculation rate is <7 infectious bites per person per year using chemotherapy and bed net strategies. Above this transmission intensity bed nets and symptomatic treatment alone were not sufficient to interrupt transmission and control the importation of malaria for at least 150 days. Our model results suggest that 1) stochastic events impact the likelihood of successfully interrupting transmission with large variability in the times required, 2) the relative reduction in morbidity caused by the interventions were age-group specific, changing over time, and 3) the post-intervention changes in morbidity were larger than the corresponding impact on transmission. These results generally agree with the conclusions from previously published models. However the model also predicted changes in parasite population structure as a result of improved treatment of symptomatic individuals; the survival probability of introduced parasites reduced leading to an increase in the prevalence of sub-patent infections in semi-immune individuals. This novel finding requires further investigation in the field because, if confirmed, such a change would have a negative impact on attempts to eliminate the disease from areas of moderate transmission.

Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Climate variability and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in northeastern China

Background: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission. ---------- Objective: We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China. ---------- Methods: We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission. ----------- Results: Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS. ---------- Conclusions: Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

Systematic Review Protocol : "Are community-based interventions effective in identifying and responding to emerging zoonotic infectious diseases?"

Review question/objective The objective of this review is to identify the effectiveness of surveillance systems and community-based interventions in identifying and responding to emerging and re-emerging zoonotic infections in Southeast Asia (SE Asia). More specifically the research questions are: 1. What is the effectiveness of community-based surveillance interventions designed to identify emerging zoonotic infectious diseases? 2. What is the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical community-based interventions designed to prevent transmission of emerging zoonotic infectious diseases? 3. How do factors related to the emergence and management of emerging zoonotic infectious diseases impact the effectiveness of interventions designed to identify and respond to them?

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Cough-generated aerosols of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and other Gram Negative Bacteria from cystic fibrosis patients.

Background: Pseudomonas aeruginosa is the most common bacterial pathogen in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. Current infection control guidelines aim to prevent transmission via contact and respiratory droplet routes and do not consider the possibility of airborne transmission. We hypothesized that with coughing, CF subjects produce viable, respirable bacterial aerosols. Methods: Cross-sectional study of 15 children and 13 adults with CF, 26 chronically infected with P. aeruginosa. A cough aerosol sampling system enabled fractioning of respiratory particles of different size, and culture of viable Gram negative non-fermentative bacteria. We collected cough aerosols during 5 minutes voluntary coughing and during a sputum induction procedure when tolerated. Standardized quantitative culture and genotyping techniques were used. Results: P. aeruginosa was isolated in cough aerosols of 25 (89%) subjects of whom 22 produced sputum samples. P. aeruginosa from sputum and paired cough aerosols were indistinguishable by molecular typing. In 4 cases the same genotype was isolated from ambient room air. Approximately 70% of viable aerosols collected during voluntary coughing were of particles ≤ 3.3 microns aerodynamic diameter. P. aeruginosa, Burkholderia cenocepacia Stenotrophomonas maltophilia and Achromobacter xylosoxidans were cultivated from respiratory particles in this size range. Positive room air samples were associated with high total counts in cough aerosols (P=0.003). The magnitude of cough aerosols were associated with higher FEV1 (r=0.45, P=0.02) and higher quantitative sputum culture results (r=0.58, P=0.008). Conclusion: During coughing, CF patients produce viable aerosols of P. aeruginosa and other Gram negative bacteria of respirable size range, suggesting the potential for airborne transmission.

Green energy : sustainable energy sources and alternative technologies

Despite the general evolution and broadening of the scope of the concept of infrastructure in many other sectors, the energy sector has maintained the same narrow boundaries for over 80 years. Energy infrastructure is still generally restricted in meaning to the transmission and distribution networks of electricity and, to some extent, gas. This is especially true in the urban development context. This early 20th century system is struggling to meet community expectations that the industry itself created and fostered for many decades. The relentless growth in demand and changing political, economic and environmental challenges require a shift from the traditional ‘predict and provide’ approach to infrastructure which is no longer economically or environmentally viable. Market deregulation and a raft of demand and supply side management strategies have failed to curb society’s addiction to the commodity of electricity. None of these responses has addressed the fundamental problem. This chapter presents an argument for the need for a new paradigm. Going beyond peripheral energy efficiency measures and the substitution of fossil fuels with renewables, it outlines a new approach to the provision of energy services in the context of 21st century urban environments.

A transport protocol for real-time applications in wireless networked control systems

A Networked Control System (NCS) is a feedback-driven control system wherein the control loops are closed through a real-time network. Control and feedback signals in an NCS are exchanged among the system’s components in the form of information packets via the network. Nowadays, wireless technologies such as IEEE802.11 are being introduced to modern NCSs as they offer better scalability, larger bandwidth and lower costs. However, this type of network is not designed for NCSs because it introduces a large amount of dropped data, and unpredictable and long transmission latencies due to the characteristics of wireless channels, which are not acceptable for real-time control systems. Real-time control is a class of time-critical application which requires lossless data transmission, small and deterministic delays and jitter. For a real-time control system, network-introduced problems may degrade the system’s performance significantly or even cause system instability. It is therefore important to develop solutions to satisfy real-time requirements in terms of delays, jitter and data losses, and guarantee high levels of performance for time-critical communications in Wireless Networked Control Systems (WNCSs). To improve or even guarantee real-time performance in wireless control systems, this thesis presents several network layout strategies and a new transport layer protocol. Firstly, real-time performances in regard to data transmission delays and reliability of IEEE 802.11b-based UDP/IP NCSs are evaluated through simulations. After analysis of the simulation results, some network layout strategies are presented to achieve relatively small and deterministic network-introduced latencies and reduce data loss rates. These are effective in providing better network performance without performance degradation of other services. After the investigation into the layout strategies, the thesis presents a new transport protocol which is more effcient than UDP and TCP for guaranteeing reliable and time-critical communications in WNCSs. From the networking perspective, introducing appropriate communication schemes, modifying existing network protocols and devising new protocols, have been the most effective and popular ways to improve or even guarantee real-time performance to a certain extent. Most previously proposed schemes and protocols were designed for real-time multimedia communication and they are not suitable for real-time control systems. Therefore, devising a new network protocol that is able to satisfy real-time requirements in WNCSs is the main objective of this research project. The Conditional Retransmission Enabled Transport Protocol (CRETP) is a new network protocol presented in this thesis. Retransmitting unacknowledged data packets is effective in compensating for data losses. However, every data packet in realtime control systems has a deadline and data is assumed invalid or even harmful when its deadline expires. CRETP performs data retransmission only in the case that data is still valid, which guarantees data timeliness and saves memory and network resources. A trade-off between delivery reliability, transmission latency and network resources can be achieved by the conditional retransmission mechanism. Evaluation of protocol performance was conducted through extensive simulations. Comparative studies between CRETP, UDP and TCP were also performed. These results showed that CRETP significantly: 1). improved reliability of communication, 2). guaranteed validity of received data, 3). reduced transmission latency to an acceptable value, and 4). made delays relatively deterministic and predictable. Furthermore, CRETP achieved the best overall performance in comparative studies which makes it the most suitable transport protocol among the three for real-time communications in a WNCS.

Linear and nonlinear propagation of localised plasmon in metallic nanostructures

A major challenge in modern photonics and nano-optics is the diffraction limit of light which does not allow field localisation into regions with dimensions smaller than half the wavelength. Localisation of light into nanoscale regions (beyond its diffraction limit) has applications ranging from the design of optical sensors and measurement techniques with resolutions as high as a few nanometres, to the effective delivery of optical energy into targeted nanoscale regions such as quantum dots, nano-electronic and nano-optical devices. This field has become a major research direction over the last decade. The use of strongly localised surface plasmons in metallic nanostructures is one of the most promising approaches to overcome this problem. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to investigate the linear and non-linear propagation of surface plasmons in metallic nanostructures. This thesis will focus on two main areas of plasmonic research –– plasmon nanofocusing and plasmon nanoguiding. Plasmon nanofocusing – The main aim of plasmon nanofocusing research is to focus plasmon energy into nanoscale regions using metallic nanostructures and at the same time achieve strong local field enhancement. Various structures for nanofocusing purposes have been proposed and analysed such as sharp metal wedges, tapered metal films on dielectric substrates, tapered metal rods, and dielectric V-grooves in metals. However, a number of important practical issues related to nanofocusing in these structures still remain unclear. Therefore, one of the main aims of this thesis is to address two of the most important of issues which are the coupling efficiency and heating effects of surface plasmons in metallic nanostructures. The method of analysis developed throughout this thesis is a general treatment that can be applied to a diversity of nanofocusing structures, with results shown here for the specific case of sharp metal wedges. Based on the geometrical optics approximation, it is demonstrated that the coupling efficiency from plasmons generated with a metal grating into the nanofocused symmetric or quasi-symmetric modes may vary between ~50% to ~100% depending on the structural parameters. Optimal conditions for nanofocusing with the view to minimise coupling and dissipative losses are also determined and discussed. It is shown that the temperature near the tip of a metal wedge heated by nanosecond plasmonic pulses can increase by several hundred degrees Celsius. This temperature increase is expected to lead to nonlinear effects, self-influence of the focused plasmon, and ultimately self-destruction of the metal tip. This thesis also investigates a different type of nanofocusing structure which consists of a tapered high-index dielectric layer resting on a metal surface. It is shown that the nanofocusing mechanism that occurs in this structure is somewhat different from other structures that have been considered thus far. For example, the surface plasmon experiences significant backreflection and mode transformation at a cut-off thickness. In addition, the reflected plasmon shows negative refraction properties that have not been observed in other nanofocusing structures considered to date. Plasmon nanoguiding – Guiding surface plasmons using metallic nanostructures is important for the development of highly integrated optical components and circuits which are expected to have a superior performance compared to their electronicbased counterparts. A number of different plasmonic waveguides have been considered over the last decade including the recently considered gap and trench plasmon waveguides. The gap and trench plasmon waveguides have proven to be difficult to fabricate. Therefore, this thesis will propose and analyse four different modified gap and trench plasmon waveguides that are expected to be easier to fabricate, and at the same time acquire improved propagation characteristics of the guided mode. In particular, it is demonstrated that the guided modes are significantly screened by the extended metal at the bottom of the structure. This is important for the design of highly integrated optics as it provides the opportunity to place two waveguides close together without significant cross-talk. This thesis also investigates the use of plasmonic nanowires to construct a Fabry-Pérot resonator/interferometer. It is shown that the resonance effect can be achieved with the appropriate resonator length and gap width. Typical quality factors of the Fabry- Pérot cavity are determined and explained in terms of radiative and dissipative losses. The possibility of using a nanowire resonator for the design of plasmonic filters with close to ~100% transmission is also demonstrated. It is expected that the results obtained in this thesis will play a vital role in the development of high resolution near field microscopy and spectroscopy, new measurement techniques and devices for single molecule detection, highly integrated optical devices, and nanobiotechnology devices for diagnostics of living cells.

Excess power circulation in distribution networks containing distributed energy resources

The presence of large number of single-phase distributed energy resources (DERs) can cause severe power quality problems in distribution networks. The DERs can be installed in random locations. This may cause the generation in a particular phase exceeds the load demand in that phase. Therefore the excess power in that phase will be fed back to the transmission network. To avoid this problem, the paper proposes the use of distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) that needs to be connected at the first bus following a substation. When operated properly, the DSTATCOM can facilitate a set of balanced current flow from the substation, even when excess power is generated by DERs. The proposals are validated through extensive digital computer simulation studies using PSCAD and MATLAB.

Generator interconnection procedures at the Midwest ISO

The Midwestern US is a wind-rich resource and wind power is being developed in this region at a very brisk pace. Transporting this energy resource to load centers invariably requires massive transmission lines. This issue of developing additional transmission to support reliable integration of wind on to the power grid provides a multitude of interesting challenges spanning various areas of power systems such as transmission planning, real-time operations and cost-allocation for new transmission. The Midwest ISO as a regional transmission provider is responsible for processing requests to interconnect proposed generation on to the transmission grid under its purview. This paper provides information about some of the issues faced in performing interconnection planning studies and Midwest ISO's efforts to improve its generator interconnection procedures. Related cost-allocation efforts currently ongoing at the Midwest ISO to streamline integration of bulk quantities of wind power in to the transmission grid are also presented.

A non-linear dynamic analysis of heavy haul track line sleepers under wheel flat

Significant wheel-rail dynamic forces occur because of imperfections in the wheels and/or rail. One of the key responses to the transmission of these forces down through the track is impact force on the sleepers. Dynamic analysis of nonlinear systems is very complicated and does not lend itself easily to a classical solution of multiple equations. Trying to deduce the behaviour of track components from experimental data is very difficult because such data is hard to obtain and applies to only the particular conditions of the track being tested. The finite element method can be the best solution to this dilemma. This paper describes a finite element model using the software package ANSYS for various sized flat defects in the tread of a wheel rolling at a typical speed on heavy haul track. The paper explores the dynamic response of a prestressed concrete sleeper to these defects.

Efficient route update and maintenance processes for multipath routing in large-scale industrial wireless sensor networks

Reliable communications is one of the major concerns in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Multipath routing is an effective way to improve communication reliability in WSNs. However, most of existing multipath routing protocols for sensor networks are reactive and require dynamic route discovery. If there are many sensor nodes from a source to a destination, the route discovery process will create a long end-to-end transmission delay, which causes difficulties in some time-critical applications. To overcome this difficulty, the efficient route update and maintenance processes are proposed in this paper. It aims to limit the amount of routing overhead with two-tier routing architecture and introduce the combination of piggyback and trigger update to replace the periodic update process, which is the main source of unnecessary routing overhead. Simulations are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed processes in improvement of total amount of routing overhead over existing popular routing protocols.