Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Dark-energy constraints and correlations with systematics from CFHTLS weak lensing, SNLS supernovae Ia and WMAP5

Aims We combine measurements of weak gravitational lensing from the CFHTLS-Wide survey, supernovae Ia from CFHT SNLS and CMB anisotropies from WMAP5 to obtain joint constraints on cosmological parameters, in particular, the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter w. We assess the influence of systematics in the data on the results and look for possible correlations with cosmological parameters. Methods We implemented an MCMC algorithm to sample the parameter space of a flat CDM model with a dark-energy component of constant w. Systematics in the data are parametrised and included in the analysis. We determine the influence of photometric calibration of SNIa data on cosmological results by calculating the response of the distance modulus to photometric zero-point variations. The weak lensing data set is tested for anomalous field-to-field variations and a systematic shape measurement bias for high-redshift galaxies. Results Ignoring photometric uncertainties for SNLS biases cosmological parameters by at most 20% of the statistical errors, using supernovae alone; the parameter uncertainties are underestimated by 10%. The weak-lensing field-to-field variance between 1 deg2-MegaCam pointings is 5-15% higher than predicted from N-body simulations. We find no bias in the lensing signal at high redshift, within the framework of a simple model, and marginalising over cosmological parameters. Assuming a systematic underestimation of the lensing signal, the normalisation increases by up to 8%. Combining all three probes we obtain -0.10 < 1 + w < 0.06 at 68% confidence ( -0.18 < 1 + w < 0.12 at 95%), including systematic errors. Our results are therefore consistent with the cosmological constant . Systematics in the data increase the error bars by up to 35%; the best-fit values change by less than 0.15.

The mechanism of breath aerosol formation

Background: Aerosol production during normal breathing is often attributed to turbulence in the respiratory tract. That mechanism is not consistent with a high degree of asymmetry between aerosol production during inhalation and exhalation. The objective was to investigate production symmetry during breathing. Methods: The aerosol size distribution in exhaled breath was examined for different breathing patterns including normal breathing, varied breath holding periods and contrasting inhalation and exhalation rates. The aerosol droplet size distribution measured in the exhaled breath was examined in real time using an aerodynamic particle sizer. Results and Conclusions: The dependence of the particle concentration decay rate on diameter during breath holding was consistent with gravitational settling in the alveolar spaces. Also, deep exhalation resulted in a 4 to 6 fold increase in concentration and rapid inhalation produced a further 2 to 3 fold increase in concentration. In contrast rapid exhalation had little effect on the measured concentration. A positive correlation of the breath aerosol concentration with subject age was observed. The results were consistent with the breath aerosol being produced through fluid film rupture in the respiratory bronchioles in the early stages of inhalation and the resulting aerosol being drawn into the alveoli and held before exhalation. The observed asymmetry of production in the breathing cycle with very little aerosol being produced during exhalation, is inconsistent with the widely assumed turbulence induced aerosolization mechanism.

Distribution of respiratory droplets in enclosed environments under different air distribution methods

Dispersion characteristics of respiratory droplets in indoor environments are of special interest in controlling transmission of airborne diseases. This study adopts an Eulerian method to investigate the spatial concentration distribution and temporal evolution of exhaled and sneezed/coughed droplets within the range of 1.0~10.0μm in an office room with three air distribution methods, i.e. mixing ventilation (MV), displacement ventilation (DV), and under-floor air distribution (UFAD). The diffusion, gravitational settling, and deposition mechanism of particulate matters are well accounted in the one-way coupling Eulerian approach. The simulation results find that exhaled droplets with diameters up to 10.0μm from normal respiration process are uniformly distributed in MV, while they are trapped in the breathing height by thermal stratifications in DV and UFAD, resulting in a high droplet concentration and a high exposure risk to other occupants. Sneezed/coughed droplets are diluted much slower in DV/UFAD than in MV. Low air speed in the breathing zone in DV/UFAD can lead to prolonged residence of droplets in the breathing zone.

Simulation and development of a mock circulation loop with variable compliance

Heart disease is attributed as the highest cause of death in the world. Although this could be alleviated by heart transplantation, there is a chronic shortage of donor hearts and so mechanical solutions are being considered. Currently, many Ventricular Assist Devices (VADs) are being developed worldwide in an effort to increase life expectancy and quality of life for end stage heart failure patients. Current pre-clinical testing methods for VADs involve laboratory testing using Mock Circulation Loops (MCLs), and in vivo testing in animal models. The research and development of highly accurate MCLs is vital to the continuous improvement of VAD performance. The first objective of this study was to develop and validate a mathematical model of a MCL. This model could then be used in the design and construction of a variable compliance chamber to improve the performance of an existing MCL as well as form the basis for a new miniaturised MCL. An extensive review of literature was carried out on MCLs and mathematical modelling of their function. A mathematical model of a MCL was then created in the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. This model included variable features such as resistance, fluid inertia and volumes (resulting from the pipe lengths and diameters); compliance of Windkessel chambers, atria and ventricles; density of both fluid and compressed air applied to the system; gravitational effects on vertical columns of fluid; and accurately modelled actuators controlling the ventricle contraction. This model was then validated using the physical properties and pressure and flow traces produced from a previously developed MCL. A variable compliance chamber was designed to reproduce parameters determined by the mathematical model. The function of the variability was achieved by controlling the transmural pressure across a diaphragm to alter the compliance of the system. An initial prototype was tested in a previously developed MCL, and a variable level of arterial compliance was successfully produced; however, the complete range of compliance values required for accurate physiological representation was not able to be produced with this initial design. The mathematical model was then used to design a smaller physical mock circulation loop, with the tubing sizes adjusted to produce accurate pressure and flow traces whilst having an appropriate frequency response characteristic. The development of the mathematical model greatly assisted the general design of an in vitro cardiovascular device test rig, while the variable compliance chamber allowed simple and real-time manipulation of MCL compliance to allow accurate transition between a variety of physiological conditions. The newly developed MCL produced an accurate design of a mechanical representation of the human circulatory system for in vitro cardiovascular device testing and education purposes. The continued improvement of VAD test rigs is essential if VAD design is to improve, and hence improve quality of life and life expectancy for heart failure patients.

Design and evaluation of an MRI compatible axial compression device for 3D assessment of spinal deformity and flexibility

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) offers a valuable research tool for the assessment of 3D spinal deformity in AIS, however the horizontal patient position imposed by conventional scanners removes the axial compressive loading on the spine which is an important determinant of deformity shape and magnitude in standing scoliosis patients. The objective of this study was to design, construct and test an MRI compatible compression device for research into the effect of axial loading on spinal deformity using supine MRI scans. The compression device was designed and constructed, consisting of a vest worn by the patient, which was attached via straps to a pneumatically actuated footplate. An applied load of 0.5 x bodyweight was remotely controlled by a unit in the scanner operator’s console. The entire device was constructed using non-metallic components for MRI compatibility. The device was evaluated by performing unloaded and loaded supine MRI scans on a series of 10 AIS patients. The study concluded that an MRI compatible compression device had been successfully designed and constructed, providing a research tool for studies into the effect of axial loading on 3D spinal deformity in scoliosis. The 3D axially loaded MR imaging capability developed in this study will allow future research investigations of the effect of axial loading on spinal rotation, and for imaging the response of scoliotic spinal tissues to axial loading.

Modelling water droplet movement on a leaf surface

Modelling droplet movement on leaf surfaces is an important component in understanding how water, pesticide or nutrient is absorbed through the leaf surface. A simple mathematical model is proposed in this paper for generating a realistic, or natural looking trajectory of a water droplet traversing a virtual leaf surface. The virtual surface is comprised of a triangular mesh structure over which a hybrid Clough-Tocher seamed element interpolant is constructed from real-life scattered data captured by a laser scanner. The motion of the droplet is assumed to be affected by gravitational, frictional and surface resistance forces and the innovation of our approach is the use of thin-film theory to develop a stopping criterion for the droplet as it moves on the surface. The droplet model is verified and calibrated using experimental measurement; the results are promising and appear to capture reality quite well.

Investigating the change in three dimensional deformity for idiopathic scoliosis using axially loaded MRI

Background: Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is a complex three-dimensional deformity, involving a lateral deformity in the coronal plane and axial rotation of the vertebrae in the transverse plane. Gravitational loading plays an important biomechanical role in governing the coronal deformity, however, less is known about how they influence the axial deformity. This study investigates the change in three-dimensional deformity of a series of scoliosis patients due to compressive axial loading. Methods: Magnetic resonance imaging scans were obtained and coronal deformity (measured using the coronal Cobb angle) and axial rotations measured for a group of 18 scoliosis patients (Mean major Cobb angle was 43.4 o). Each patient was scanned in an unloaded and loaded condition while compressive loads equivalent to 50% body mass were applied using a custom developed compressive device. Findings: The mean increase in major Cobb angle due to compressive loading was 7.4 o (SD 3.5 o). The most axially rotated vertebra was observed at the apex of the structural curve and the largest average intravertebral rotations were observed toward the limits of the coronal deformity. A level-wise comparison showed no significant difference between the average loaded and unloaded vertebral axial rotations (intra-observer error = 2.56 o) or intravertebral rotations at each spinal level. Interpretation: This study suggests that the biomechanical effects of axial loading primarily influence the coronal deformity, with no significant change in vertebral axial rotation or intravertebral rotation observed between the unloaded and loaded condition. However, the magnitude of changes in vertebral rotation with compressive loading may have been too small to detect given the resolution of the current technique.

On the effective hydraulic conductivity and macrodispersivity for density-dependent groundwater flow

In this paper, semi-analytical expressions of the effective hydraulic conductivity ( KE) and macrodispersivity ( αE) for 3D steady-state density-dependent groundwater flow are derived using a stationary spectral method. Based on the derived expressions, we present the dependence of KE and αE on the density of fluid under different dispersivity and spatial correlation scale of hydraulic conductivity. The results show that the horizontal KE and αE are not affected by density-induced flow. However, due to gravitational instability of the fluid induced by density contrasts, both vertical KE and αE are found to be reduced slightly when the density factor ( γ ) is less than 0.01, whereas significant decreases occur when γ exceeds 0.01. Of note, the variation of KE and αE is more significant when local dispersivity is small and the correlation scale of hydraulic conductivity is large.

Segmental torso masses and coronal plane joint torques in the adolescent scoliotic spine

Introduction. Calculating segmental (vertebral level-by-level) torso masses in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine during relaxed standing to be determined. This study used CT scans of AIS patients to measure segmental torso masses and explores how joint moments in the coronal plane are affected by changes in the position of the intervertebral joint’s axis of rotation; particularly at the apex of a scoliotic major curve. Methods. Existing low dose CT data from the Paediatric Spine Research Group was used to calculate vertebral level-by-level torso masses and joint torques occurring in the spine for a group of 20 female AIS patients (mean age 15.0 ± 2.7 years, mean Cobb angle 53 ± 7.1°). Image processing software, ImageJ (v1.45 NIH USA) was used to threshold the T1 to L5 CT images and calculate the segmental torso volume and mass corresponding to each vertebral level. Body segment masses for the head, neck and arms were taken from published anthropometric data. Intervertebral (IV) joint torques at each vertebral level were found using principles of static equilibrium together with the segmental body mass data. Summing the torque contributions for each level above the required joint, allowed the cumulative joint torque at a particular level to be found. Since there is some uncertainty in the position of the coronal plane Instantaneous Axis of Rotation (IAR) for scoliosis patients, it was assumed the IAR was located in the centre of the IV disc. A sensitivity analysis was performed to see what effect the IAR had on the joint torques by moving it laterally 10mm in both directions. Results. The magnitude of the torso masses from T1-L5 increased inferiorly, with a 150% increase in mean segmental torso mass from 0.6kg at T1 to 1.5kg at L5. The magnitudes of the calculated coronal plane joint torques during relaxed standing were typically 5-7 Nm at the apex of the curve, with the highest apex joint torque of 7Nm being found in patient 13. Shifting the assumed IAR by 10mm towards the convexity of the spine, increased the joint torque at that level by a mean 9.0%, showing that calculated joint torques were moderately sensitive to the assumed IAR location. When the IAR midline position was moved 10mm away from the convexity of the spine, the joint torque reduced by a mean 8.9%. Conclusion. Coronal plane joint torques as high as 7Nm can occur during relaxed standing in scoliosis patients, which may help to explain the mechanics of AIS progression. This study provides new anthropometric reference data on vertebral level-by-level torso mass in AIS patients which will be useful for biomechanical models of scoliosis progression and treatment. However, the CT scans were performed in supine (no gravitational load on spine) and curve magnitudes are known to be smaller than those measured in standing.

Segmental torso masses and gravity-induced coronal plane joint moments in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Introduction: Calculating segmental (vertebral level-by-level) torso masses in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine during relaxed standing to be estimated. This study used supine CT scans of AIS patients to measure segmental torso masses and explored the joint moments in the coronal plane, particularly at the apex of a scoliotic major curve. Methods: Existing low dose CT data from the Paediatric Spine Research Group was used to calculate vertebral level-by-level torso masses and joint moments occurring in the spine for a group of 20 female AIS patients with right sided thoracic curves. The mean age was 15.0 ± 2.7 years and all curves were classified Lenke Type 1 with a mean Cobb angle 52 ± 5.9°. Image processing software, ImageJ (v1.45 NIH USA) was used to create reformatted coronal plane images, reconstruct vertebral level-by-level torso segments and subsequently measure the torso volume corresponding to each vertebral level. Segment mass was then determined by assuming a tissue density of 1.04x103 kg/m3. Body segment masses for the head, neck and arms were taken from published anthropometric data (Winter 2009). Intervertebral joint moments in the coronal plane at each vertebral level were found from the position of the centroid of the segment masses relative to the joint centres with the segmental body mass data. Results and Discussion: The magnitude of the torso masses from T1-L5 increased inferiorly, with a 150% increase in mean segmental torso mass from 0.6kg at T1 to 1.5kg at L5. The magnitudes of the calculated coronal plane joint moments during relaxed standing were typically 5-7 Nm at the apex of the curve, with the highest apex joint torque of 7Nm. The CT scans were performed in the supine position and curve magnitudes are known to be 7-10° smaller than those measured in standing, due to the absence of gravity acting on the spine. Hence, it can be expected that the moments produced by gravity in the standing individual will be greater than those calculated here.

Segmental torso masses and joint torques produced by gravity in the adolescent scoliotic spine

Introduction Calculating segmental torso masses in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine during relaxed standing to be estimated. Methods Low dose CT data was used to calculate vertebral level-by-level torso masses and spinal joint torques for 20 female AIS patients (mean age 15.0 ± 2.7 years, mean Cobb angle 53 ± 7.1°). ImageJ software (v1.45 NIH USA) was used to threshold the T1 to L5 CT images and calculate the segmental torso volume and mass for each vertebral level. Masses for the head, neck and arms were taken from published data.1 Intervertebral joint torques in the coronal and sagittal planes at each vertebral level were found from the position of the centroid of the segment masses relative to the joint centres (assumed to be at the centre of the intervertebral disc). The joint torque at each level was found by summing torque contributions for all segments above that joint. Results Segmental torso mass increased from 0.6kg at T1 to 1.5kg at L5. The coronal plane joint torques due to gravity were 5-7Nm at the apex of the curve; sagittal torques were 3-5.4Nm. Conclusion CT scans were in the supine position and curve magnitudes are known to be smaller than those in standing.2 Hence, this study has shown that gravity produces joint torques potentially of higher than 7Nm in the coronal plane and 5Nm in the sagittal plane during relaxed standing in scoliosis patients. The magnitude of these torques may help to explain the mechanics of AIS progression and the mechanics of bracing. This new data on torso segmental mass in AIS patients will assist biomechanical models of scoliosis.

Experimental verification of the modified spring-mass theory of fiber Bragg grating accelerometers using transverse forces

A fiber Bragg grating (FBG) accelerometer using transverse forces is more sensitive than one using axial forces with the same mass of the inertial object, because a barely stretched FBG fixed at its two ends is much more sensitive to transverse forces than axial ones. The spring-mass theory, with the assumption that the axial force changes little during the vibration, cannot accurately predict its sensitivity and resonant frequency in the gravitational direction because the assumption does not hold due to the fact that the FBG is barely prestretched. It was modified but still required experimental verification due to the limitations in the original experiments, such as the (1) friction between the inertial object and shell; (2) errors involved in estimating the time-domain records; (3) limited data; and (4) large interval ∼5 Hz between the tested frequencies in the frequency-response experiments. The experiments presented here have verified the modified theory by overcoming those limitations. On the frequency responses, it is observed that the optimal condition for simultaneously achieving high sensitivity and resonant frequency is at the infinitesimal prestretch. On the sensitivity at the same frequency, the experimental sensitivities of the FBG accelerometer with a 5.71 gram inertial object at 6 Hz (1.29, 1.19, 0.88, 0.64, and 0.31 nm/g at the 0.03, 0.69, 1.41, 1.93, and 3.16 nm prestretches, respectively) agree with the static sensitivities predicted (1.25, 1.14, 0.83, 0.61, and 0.29 nm/g, correspondingly). On the resonant frequency, (1) its assumption that the resonant frequencies in the forced and free vibrations are similar is experimentally verified; (2) its dependence on the distance between the FBG’s fixed ends is examined, showing it to be independent; (3) the predictions of the spring-mass theory and modified theory are compared with the experimental results, showing that the modified theory predicts more accurately. The modified theory can be used more confidently in guiding its design by predicting its static sensitivity and resonant frequency, and may have applications in other fields for the scenario where the spring-mass theory fails.

Energy-based positioning control of underactuated vehicles using manifold regulation

In this paper, we consider the problem of position regulation of a class of underactuated rigid-body vehicles that operate within a gravitational field and have fully-actuated attitude. The control objective is to regulate the vehicle position to a manifold of dimension equal to the underactuation degree. We address the problem using Port-Hamiltonian theory, and reduce the associated matching PDEs to a set of algebraic equations using a kinematic identity. The resulting method for control design is constructive. The point within the manifold to which the position is regulated is determined by the action of the potential field and the geometry of the manifold. We illustrate the performance of the controller for an unmanned aerial vehicle with underactuation degree two-a quadrotor helicopter.