General order conditions for stochastic Runge-Kutta methods for both commuting and non-commuting stochastic ordinary differential equation systems

In many modeling situations in which parameter values can only be estimated or are subject to noise, the appropriate mathematical representation is a stochastic ordinary differential equation (SODE). However, unlike the deterministic case in which there are suites of sophisticated numerical methods, numerical methods for SODEs are much less sophisticated. Until a recent paper by K. Burrage and P.M. Burrage (1996), the highest strong order of a stochastic Runge-Kutta method was one. But K. Burrage and P.M. Burrage (1996) showed that by including additional random variable terms representing approximations to the higher order Stratonovich (or Ito) integrals, higher order methods could be constructed. However, this analysis applied only to the one Wiener process case. In this paper, it will be shown that in the multiple Wiener process case all known stochastic Runge-Kutta methods can suffer a severe order reduction if there is non-commutativity between the functions associated with the Wiener processes. Importantly, however, it is also suggested how this order can be repaired if certain commutator operators are included in the Runge-Kutta formulation. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. and IMACS. All rights reserved.

Exact series solutions of reactive transport models with general initial conditions

Exact solutions of partial differential equation models describing the transport and decay of single and coupled multispecies problems can provide insight into the fate and transport of solutes in saturated aquifers. Most previous analytical solutions are based on integral transform techniques, meaning that the initial condition is restricted in the sense that the choice of initial condition has an important impact on whether or not the inverse transform can be calculated exactly. In this work we describe and implement a technique that produces exact solutions for single and multispecies reactive transport problems with more general, smooth initial conditions. We achieve this by using a different method to invert a Laplace transform which produces a power series solution. To demonstrate the utility of this technique, we apply it to two example problems with initial conditions that cannot be solved exactly using traditional transform techniques.

Order conditions of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods by B-series

In this paper, general order conditions and a global convergence proof are given for stochastic Runge Kutta methods applied to stochastic ordinary differential equations ( SODEs) of Stratonovich type. This work generalizes the ideas of B-series as applied to deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to the stochastic case and allows a completely general formalism for constructing high order stochastic methods, either explicit or implicit. Some numerical results will be given to illustrate this theory.

Preventing the selection of “deaf embryos” under the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act 2008 : problematizing disability?

Section 14(4) of the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act 2008 imposes – within the general licensing conditions listed in the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act 1990 – a prohibition to prevent the selection and implantation of embryos for the purpose of creating a child who will be born with a “serious disability.” This article offers a perspective that demonstrates the problematic nature of the consultation, review, and legislative reform process surrounding s 14(4). The term “serious disability” is not defined within the legislation, but we highlight the fact that s 14(4) was passed with the case of selecting deaf children in mind. We consider some of the literature on the topic of disability and deafness, which, we think, casts some doubt on the view that deafness is a “serious disability.” The main position we advance is that the lack of serious engagement with alternative viewpoints during the legislative process was unsatisfactory. We argue that the contested nature of deafness necessitates a more robust consultation process and a clearer explanation and defence of the normative position that underpins s 14(4).

An anticipative reactive control strategy to deal with unforeseen obstacles during a multi-sensor-based navigation task

We address the problem of the rangefinder-based avoidance of unforeseen static obstacles during a visual navigation task. We extend previous strategies which are efficient in most cases but remain still hampered by some drawbacks (e.g., risks of collisions or of local minima in some particular cases, etc.). The key idea is to complete the control strategy by adding a controller providing the robot some anticipative skills to guarantee non collision and by defining more general transition conditions to deal with local minima. Simulation results show the proposed strategy efficiency.

Optimism about safety and group-serving interpretations of safety among pedestrians and cyclists in relation to road use in general and under low light conditions

Drivers are known to be optimistic about their risk of crash involvement, believing that they are less likely to be involved in a crash than other drivers. However, little comparative research has been conducted among other road users. In addition, optimism about crash risk is conceptualised as applying only to an individual’s assessment of his or her personal risk of crash involvement. The possibility that the self-serving nature of optimism about safety might be generalised to the group-level as a cyclist or a pedestrian, i.e., becoming group-serving rather than self-serving, has been overlooked in relation to road safety. This study analysed a subset of data collected as part of a larger research project on the visibility of pedestrians, cyclists and road workers, focusing on a set of questionnaire items administered to 406 pedestrians, 838 cyclists and 622 drivers. The items related to safety in various scenarios involving drivers, pedestrians and cyclists, allowing predictions to be derived about group differences in agreement with items based on the assumption that the results would exhibit group-serving bias. Analysis of the responses indicated that specific hypotheses about group-serving interpretations of safety and responsibility were supported in 22 of the 26 comparisons. When the nine comparisons relevant to low lighting conditions were considered separately, seven were found to be supported. The findings of the research have implications for public education and for the likely acceptance of messages which are inconsistent with current assumptions and expectations of pedestrians and cyclists. They also suggest that research into group-serving interpretations of safety, even for temporary roles rather than enduring groups, could be fruitful. Further, there is an implication that gains in safety can be made by better educating road users about the limitations of their visibility and the ramifications of this for their own road safety, particularly in low light.

Good clinical endpoints with denosumab in osteoporosis and cancer

Background: Bone loss associated with low oestrogen levels in postmenopausal women, and with androgen deprivation therapy in men with hormone-sensitive prostate cancer, result in an increased incidence of fractures. Denosumab has been shown to increase bone mineral density in these two conditions. Objectives/methods: The objective of this evaluation is to review the clinical trials that have studied clinical endpoints in these conditions. Results: FREEDOM (Fracture Reduction Evaluation of Denosumab in Osteoporosis Every 6 Months) was an International Phase III clinical trial that measured the clinical endpoints with denosumab in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. At 36 months, new vertebral fractures had occurred in 7.2% of subjects in the placebo group and this was lowered to 2.3% of subjects treated with denosumab. HALT (Denosumab Hormone Ablation Bone Loss Trial) studied the clinical endpoints in men with non-metastatic prostate cancer receiving androgen-deprivation therapy. The incidence of vertebral fractures was significantly lower in the denosumab group (1.5%) than in the placebo group (3.9%). The incidence of adverse effects with denosumab in both clinical trials was low. Conclusions: Denosumab reduces the incidence of fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and in men with non-metastatic prostate cancer receiving androgen-deprivation therapy. Denosumab is well tolerated.

A pilot randomised control trial of general practitioner and exercise physiologist interventions to reduce primary cardiovascular risk in overweight patients [Abstract]

Aims & Rationale/Objectives: With the knowledge that overweight is a major public health concern in Australia, that a multidisciplinary team approach to the management of lifestyle-related conditions is supported, and that the Australian Government recently recognised the role of the exercise physiologist (EP) in reducing the health burden of disease by their inclusion for reimbursement under the Medicare Plus scheme, this study sought to undertake a pilot RCT to compare GP and EP interventions to reduce primary cardiovascular risk in the overweight general practice population. Methods and Measures: Overweight patients recruited by a convenience sample of GPs were randomised into one of three arms: the control group, or the GP or EP intervention group (in which patients received either five GP or five EP consultations over 24 weeks). Patients had baseline, 12- and 24-week measures of body composition and cardio-respiratory fitness, and completed baseline and end-of-study surveys, fasting lipids and glucose. GPs and EPs completed an end-of-study survey. Results:Sixty-seven patients attended the baseline assessment. Overall retention rate was 67%. Patients were generally satisfied with the effectiveness of the interventions and their weight reduction. Favourable trends in BMI, weight, glucose and exercise levels for GP and EP intervention groups and in physical activity levels for all groups Conclusions: This study supports the feasibility of a RCT of GP and EP interventions for decreasing primary cardiovascular risk in the overweight general practice population.

A general approach to control a positive buck-boost converter to achieve robustness against input voltage fluctuations and load changes

A Positive Buck-Boost converter is a known DC-DC converter which may be controlled to act as Buck or Boost converter with same polarity of the input voltage. This converter has four switching states which include all the switching states of the above mentioned DC-DC converters. In addition there is one switching state which provides a degree of freedom for the positive Buck-Boost converter in comparison to the Buck, Boost, and inverting Buck-Boost converters. In other words the Positive Buck-Boost Converter shows a higher level of flexibility for its inductor current control compared to the other DC-DC converters. In this paper this extra degree of freedom is utilised to increase the robustness against input voltage fluctuations and load changes. To address this capacity of the positive Buck-Boost converter, two different control strategies are proposed which control the inductor current and output voltage against any fluctuations in input voltage and load changes. Mathematical analysis for dynamic and steady state conditions are presented in this paper and simulation results verify the proposed method.

A general-purpose simulator for train operations

Computer simulation has been widely accepted as an essential tool for the analysis of many engineering systems. It is nowadays perceived to be the most readily available and feasible means of evaluating operations in real railway systems. Based on practical experience and theoretical models developed in various applications, this paper describes the design of a general-purpose simulation system for train operations. Its prime objective is to provide a single comprehensive computer-aided engineering tool for most studies on railway operations so that various aspects of the railway systems with different operation characteristics can be investigated and analysed in depth. This system consists of three levels of simulation. The first is a single-train simulator calculating the running time of a train between specific points under different track geometry and traction conditions. The second is a dual-train simulator which is to find the minimum headway between two trains under different movement constraints, such as signalling systems. The third is a whole-system multi-train simulator which carries out process simulation of the real operation of a railway system according to a practical or planned train schedule or headway; and produces an overall evaluation of system performance.

Attitudes to living and working in pandemic conditions among emergency prehospital medical care personnel

Introduction: Little is known about the risk perceptions and attitudes of healthcare personnel, especially of emergency prehospital medical care personnel, regarding the possibility of an outbreak or epidemic event. Problem: This study was designed to investigate pre-event knowledge and attitudes of a national sample of the emergency prehospital medical care providers in relation to a potential human influenza pandemic, and to determine predictors of these attitudes. Methods: Surveys were distributed to a random, cross-sectional sample of 20% of the Australian emergency prehospital medical care workforce (n = 2,929), stratified by the nine services operating in Australia, as well as by gender and location. The surveys included: (1) demographic information; (2) knowledge of influenza; and (3) attitudes and perceptions related to working during influenza pandemic conditions. Multiple logistic regression models were constructed to identify predictors of pandemic-related risk perceptions. Results: Among the 725 Australian emergency prehospital medical care personnel who responded, 89% were very anxious about working during pandemic conditions, and 85% perceived a high personal risk associated with working in such conditions. In general, respondents demonstrated poor knowledge in relation to avian influenza, influenza generally, and infection transmission methods. Less than 5% of respondents perceived that they had adequate education/training about avian influenza. Logistic regression analyses indicate that, in managing the attitudes and risk perceptions of emergency prehospital medical care staff, particular attention should be directed toward the paid, male workforce (as opposed to volunteers), and on personnel whose relationship partners do not work in the health industry. Conclusions: These results highlight the potentially crucial role of education and training in pandemic preparedness. Organizations that provide emergency prehospital medical care must address this apparent lack of knowledge regarding infection transmission, and procedures for protection and decontamination. Careful management of the perceptions of emergency prehospital medical care personnel during a pandemic is likely to be critical in achieving an effective response to a widespread outbreak of infectious disease.

General self-efficacy influences affective task reactions during a work simulation : the temporal effects of changes in workload at different levels of control

This study investigated the effects of workload, control, and general self-efficacy on affective task reactions (i.e., demands-ability fit, active coping, and anxiety) during a work simulation. The main goals were: (1) to determine the extent general self-efficacy moderates the effects of demand and control on affective task reactions, and; (2) to determine if this varies as a function of changes in workload. Participants (N=141) completed an inbox activity under conditions of low or high control and within low and high workload conditions. The order of trials varied so that workload increased or decreased. Results revealed individuals with high general self-efficacy reported better demands-abilities fit and active coping as well as less anxiety. Three interactive effects were found. First, it was found that high control increased demands-abilities fit from trial 1 to trial 2, but only when workload decreased. Second, it was found that low efficacious individuals active coping increased in trial 2, but only under high control. Third, it was found that high control helped high efficacious individuals manage anxiety when workload decreased. However, for individuals with low general self-efficacy, neither high nor low control alleviated anxiety (i.e., whether workload increased or decreased over time).

A contextualised general systems theory

A system is something that can be separated from its surrounds, but this definition leaves much scope for refinement. Starting with the notion of measurement, we explore increasingly contextual system behaviour, and identify three major forms of contextuality that might be exhibited by a system: (a) between components; (b) between system and experimental method, and; (c) between a system and its environment. Quantum Theory is shown to provide a highly useful formalism from which all three forms of contextuality can be analysed, offering numerous tests for contextual behaviour, as well as modelling possibilities for systems that do indeed display it. I conclude with the introduction of a Contextualised General Systems Theory based upon an extension of this formalism.

Marginal costs of hospital-acquired conditions : information for priority-setting for patient safety programmes and research

Objective: To estimate the relative inpatient costs of hospital-acquired conditions. Methods: Patient level costs were estimated using computerized costing systems that log individual utilization of inpatient services and apply sophisticated cost estimates from the hospital's general ledger. Occurrence of hospital-acquired conditions was identified using an Australian ‘condition-onset' flag for diagnoses not present on admission. These were grouped to yield a comprehensive set of 144 categories of hospital-acquired conditions to summarize data coded with ICD-10. Standard linear regression techniques were used to identify the independent contribution of hospital-acquired conditions to costs, taking into account the case-mix of a sample of acute inpatients (n = 1,699,997) treated in Australian public hospitals in Victoria (2005/06) and Queensland (2006/07). Results: The most costly types of complications were post-procedure endocrine/metabolic disorders, adding AU$21,827 to the cost of an episode, followed by MRSA (AU$19,881) and enterocolitis due to Clostridium difficile (AU$19,743). Aggregate costs to the system, however, were highest for septicaemia (AU$41.4 million), complications of cardiac and vascular implants other than septicaemia (AU$28.7 million), acute lower respiratory infections, including influenza and pneumonia (AU$27.8 million) and UTI (AU$24.7 million). Hospital-acquired complications are estimated to add 17.3% to treatment costs in this sample. Conclusions: Patient safety efforts frequently focus on dramatic but rare complications with very serious patient harm. Previous studies of the costs of adverse events have provided information on ‘indicators’ of safety problems rather than the full range of hospital-acquired conditions. Adding a cost dimension to priority-setting could result in changes to the focus of patient safety programmes and research. Financial information should be combined with information on patient outcomes to allow for cost-utility evaluation of future interventions.

Limitations of a laboratory scale model in predicting optimal pilot scale conditions for dilute acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse

Pilot and industrial scale dilute acid pretreatment data can be difficult to obtain due to the significant infrastructure investment required. Consequently, models of dilute acid pretreatment by necessity use laboratory scale data to determine kinetic parameters and make predictions about optimal pretreatment conditions at larger scales. In order for these recommendations to be meaningful, the ability of laboratory scale models to predict pilot and industrial scale yields must be investigated. A mathematical model of the dilute acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse has previously been developed by the authors. This model was able to successfully reproduce the experimental yields of xylose and short chain xylooligomers obtained at the laboratory scale. In this paper, the ability of the model to reproduce pilot scale yield and composition data is examined. It was found that in general the model over predicted the pilot scale reactor yields by a significant margin. Models that appear very promising at the laboratory scale may have limitations when predicting yields on a pilot or industrial scale. It is difficult to comment whether there are any consistent trends in optimal operating conditions between reactor scale and laboratory scale hydrolysis due to the limited reactor datasets available. Further investigation is needed to determine whether the model has some efficacy when the kinetic parameters are re-evaluated by parameter fitting to reactor scale data, however, this requires the compilation of larger datasets. Alternatively, laboratory scale mathematical models may have enhanced utility for predicting larger scale reactor performance if bulk mass transport and fluid flow considerations are incorporated into the fibre scale equations. This work reinforces the need for appropriate attention to be paid to pilot scale experimental development when moving from laboratory to pilot and industrial scales for new technologies.