Asset health prediction using condition indicators and operating environment indicators : a case study

Prognostics and asset life prediction is one of research potentials in engineering asset health management. We previously developed the Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) to effectively and explicitly predict asset life using three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators. We have formerly studied the application of both the semi-parametric EHM and non-parametric EHM to the survival probability estimation in the reliability field. The survival time in these models is dependent not only upon the age of the asset monitored, but also upon the condition and operating environment information obtained. This paper is a further study of the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs to the hazard and residual life prediction of a set of resistance elements. The resistance elements were used as corrosion sensors for measuring the atmospheric corrosion rate in a laboratory experiment. In this paper, the estimated hazard of the resistance element using the semi-parametric EHM and the non-parametric EHM is compared to the traditional Weibull model and the Aalen Linear Regression Model (ALRM), respectively. Due to assuming a Weibull distribution in the baseline hazard of the semi-parametric EHM, the estimated hazard using this model is compared to the traditional Weibull model. The estimated hazard using the non-parametric EHM is compared to ALRM which is a well-known non-parametric covariate-based hazard model. At last, the predicted residual life of the resistance element using both EHMs is compared to the actual life data.

Raman spectroscopy of the copper chloride minerals nantokite, eriochalcite and claringbullite - implications for copper corrosion

The application of Raman spectroscopy to the study of the copper chloride minerals nantokite, eriochalcite and claringbullite has enabled the vibrational modes for the CuCl, CuOH and CuOH2 to be determined. Nantokite is characterised by bands at 205 and 155 cm-1 attributed to the transverse and longitudinal optic vibrations. Nantokite also has an intense band at 463 cm-1, eriochalcite at 405 and 390 cm-1 and claringbullite at 511 cm-1. These bands are attributed to CuO stretching modes. Water librational bands at around 672 cm-1 for eriochalcite have been identified and hydroxyl deformation modes of claringbullite at 970, 906 and 815 cm-1 are observed. Spectra of the three minerals are so characteristically different that the minerals are readily identified by Raman spectroscopy. The minerals are often determined in copper corrosion products by X-ray diffraction. Raman spectroscopy offers a rapid, in-situ technique for the identification of these corrosion products.

Corrosion studies on the plasma-sprayed nanostructured titanium dioxide coating

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to report the resistance of plasma-sprayed titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanostructured coatings in a corrosive environment.----- Design/methodology/approach: Weight loss studies are performed according to ASTM G31 specifications in 3.5?wt% NaCl. Electrochemical polarization resistance measurements are made according to ASTM G59-91 specifications. Corrosion resistance in a humid and corrosive environment is determined by exposing the samples in a salt spray chamber for 100?h. Microstructural studies are carried out using an atomic force microscope and scanning electron microscope.----- Findings: The nanostructured TiO2 coatings offer good resistance to corrosion, as shown by the results of immersion, electrochemical and salt spray studies. The corrosion resistance of the coating is dictated primarily by the geometry of splat lamellae, density of unmelted nanoparticles, magnitude of porosity and surface homogeneity.----- Practical implications: The TiO2 nanostructured coatings show promising potential for use as abrasion, wear-resistant and thermal barrier coatings for service in harsh environments.----- Originality/value: The paper relates the corrosion resistance of nanostructured TiO2 coatings to their structure and surface morphology.

Characterisation of soluble components and PAH in PM10 atmospheric particulate matter in Brisbane

Fours sets of PM10 samples were collected in three sites in SEQ from December 2002 to August 2004. Three of these sets of samples were collected by QLD EPA as a part of their regular air monitoring program at Woolloongabba, Rocklea and Eagle Farm. Half of the samples were used in this study for the analysis of water-soluble ions, which are Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, NH4 +, Cl-, NO3 -, SO4 2-, F-, Br-, NO2 -, PO4 -3 and the other half was retained by QLD EPA. The fourth set of samples was collected at Rocklea, specifically for this study. A quarter of the samples obtained from this set of samples were used to analyse water-soluble ions; a quarter of the sample was used to analyse Pb, Cu, Al, Fe, Mn and Zn; and the rests were used to analyse US EPA 16 priority PAHs. The water-soluble ions were extracted ultrasonically with water and the major watersoluble anions as well as NH4 + were analysed using IC. Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+ Pb, Cu, Al, Fe, Mn and Zn were analysed using ICP-AES while PAHs were extracted by acetonitrile and analysed using HPLC. Of the analysed water-soluble ions, Cl-, NO3 -, SO4 2-, Na+, K+, Mg2+ and Ca2+ were high in concentration and determined in all the samples. F-, Br-, NO2 -, PO4 -3 and NH4 + ions were lower in concentration and determined only in some samples. Na+ and Cl- were high in all samples indicating the importance of a marine source. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to examine the temporal variations of the water-soluble ions at the three sites. The results indicated that there was no major difference between the three sites. However, comparing the average concentrations of ions and Cl-/Na+ it was concluded that Woolloongabba had more marine influence than the other sites. Al, Fe and Zn were detected in all samples. Al and Fe were high in all samples indicating the significance of a source of crustal matter. Cu, Mn and Pb were in low concentrations and were determined only in some samples. The lower Pb concentrations observed in the study than in previous studies indicate that the phasing-out of leaded petrol had an appreciable impact on Pb levels in SEQ. This study reports for the first time, simultaneous data on the water-soluble, metal ion and PAH levels of PM10 aerosols in Brisbane, and provides information on the most likely sources of these chemical species. Such information can be used alongside those that already exist to formulate PM10 pollution reduction strategies for SEQ in order to protect the community from the adverse effects of PM pollution.

Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Atmospheric deposition as a source of stormwater pollution in Gold Coast, Australia

Atmospheric deposition is one of the most important pollutant pathways for urban stormwater pollution. Atmospheric deposition can be in the form of dry and wet depositions which have distinct characteristics in terms of pollutant types, pollutant sources and influential parameters. This paper discusses the outcomes of a comprehensive study undertaken to identify the characteristics of wet and dry deposition of pollutants. Sample collection was undertaken at eight study sites with distinct characteristics. Four sites were close to road sites with varying traffic characteristics, whilst the other four sites had different land use characteristics. Dry deposition samples were collected for different antecedent dry days and wet deposition samples were collected immediately after rainfall events. The dry deposition was found to increase with the antecedent dry days and consisted of relatively coarser particles (greater than 1 µm) when compared to wet deposition. The wet deposition showed a strong affinity to rainfall depth, but was not related to the antecedent dry period. It was also found that smaller size particles (less than 1 µm) travel much longer distances from the source and deposit mainly with the wet deposition