The missing link of crime analysis: A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses

Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating evidence in a scientific fashion. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining a method (the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses) of systematically analysing multiple explanations for crime problems. The method is systematic, avoids many cognitive errors common in analysis, and is explicit. It is argued that the implementation of this approach makes analytic products audit-able, the reasoning underpinning them transparent, and provides intelligence managers a rational professional development tool for individual analysts.

Effects of air pollution exposure on adult bicycle commuters : an investigation of respiratory health, motorised traffic proximity and the utility of commute re-routing

Bicycle commuting has the potential to be an effective contributing solution to address some of modern society’s biggest issues, including cardiovascular disease, anthropogenic climate change and urban traffic congestion. However, individuals shifting from a passive to an active commute mode may be increasing their potential for air pollution exposure and the associated health risk. This project, consisting of three studies, was designed to investigate the health effects of bicycle commuters in relation to air pollution exposure, in a major city in Australia (Brisbane). The aims of the three studies were to: 1) examine the relationship of in-commute air pollution exposure perception, symptoms and risk management; 2) assess the efficacy of commute re-routing as a risk management strategy by determining the exposure potential profile of ultrafine particles along commute route alternatives of low and high proximity to motorised traffic; and, 3) evaluate the feasibility of implementing commute re-routing as a risk management strategy by monitoring ultrafine particle exposure and consequential physiological response from using commute route alternatives based on real-world circumstances; 3) investigate the potential of reducing exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP; < 0.1 µm) during bicycle commuting by lowering proximity to motorised traffic with real-time air pollution and acute inflammatory measurements in healthy individuals using their typical, and an alternative to their typical, bicycle commute route. The methods of the three studies included: 1) a questionnaire-based investigation with regular bicycle commuters in Brisbane, Australia. Participants (n = 153; age = 41 ± 11 yr; 28% female) reported the characteristics of their typical bicycle commute, along with exposure perception and acute respiratory symptoms, and amenability for using a respirator or re-routing their commute as risk management strategies; 2) inhaled particle counts measured along popular pre-identified bicycle commute route alterations of low (LOW) and high (HIGH) motorised traffic to the same inner-city destination at peak commute traffic times. During commute, real-time particle number concentration (PNC; mostly in the UFP range) and particle diameter (PD), heart and respiratory rate, geographical location, and meteorological variables were measured. To determine inhaled particle counts, ventilation rate was calculated from heart-rate-ventilation associations, produced from periodic exercise testing; 3) thirty-five healthy adults (mean ± SD: age = 39 ± 11 yr; 29% female) completed two return trips of their typical route (HIGH) and a pre-determined altered route of lower proximity to motorised traffic (LOW; determined by the proportion of on-road cycle paths). Particle number concentration (PNC) and diameter (PD) were monitored in real-time in-commute. Acute inflammatory indices of respiratory symptom incidence, lung function and spontaneous sputum (for inflammatory cell analyses) were collected immediately pre-commute, and one and three hours post-commute. The main results of the three studies are that: 1) healthy individuals reported a higher incidence of specific acute respiratory symptoms in- and post- (compared to pre-) commute (p < 0.05). The incidence of specific acute respiratory symptoms was significantly higher for participants with respiratory disorder history compared to healthy participants (p < 0.05). The incidence of in-commute offensive odour detection, and the perception of in-commute air pollution exposure, was significantly lower for participants with smoking history compared to healthy participants (p < 0.05). Females reported significantly higher incidence of in-commute air pollution exposure perception and other specific acute respiratory symptoms, and were more amenable to commute re-routing, compared to males (p < 0.05). Healthy individuals have indicated a higher incidence of acute respiratory symptoms in- and post- (compared to pre-) bicycle commuting, with female gender and respiratory disorder history indicating a comparably-higher susceptibility; 2) total mean PNC of LOW (compared to HIGH) was reduced (1.56 x e4 ± 0.38 x e4 versus 3.06 x e4 ± 0.53 x e4 ppcc; p = 0.012). Total estimated ventilation rate did not vary significantly between LOW and HIGH (43 ± 5 versus 46 ± 9 L•min; p = 0.136); however, due to total mean PNC, accumulated inhaled particle counts were 48% lower in LOW, compared to HIGH (7.6 x e8 ± 1.5 x e8 versus 14.6 x e8 ± 1.8 x e8; p = 0.003); 3) LOW resulted in a significant reduction in mean PNC (1.91 x e4 ± 0.93 x e4 ppcc vs. 2.95 x e4 ± 1.50 x e4 ppcc; p ≤ 0.001). Commute distance and duration were not significantly different between LOW and HIGH (12.8 ± 7.1 vs. 12.0 ± 6.9 km and 44 ± 17 vs. 42 ± 17 mins, respectively). Besides incidence of in-commute offensive odour detection (42 vs. 56 %; p = 0.019), incidence of dust and soot observation (33 vs. 47 %; p = 0.038) and nasopharyngeal irritation (31 vs. 41 %; p = 0.007), acute inflammatory indices were not significantly associated to in-commute PNC, nor were these indices reduced with LOW compared to HIGH. The main conclusions of the three studies are that: 1) the perception of air pollution exposure levels and the amenability to adopt exposure risk management strategies where applicable will aid the general population in shifting from passive, motorised transport modes to bicycle commuting; 2) for bicycle commuting at peak morning commute times, inhaled particle counts and therefore cardiopulmonary health risk may be substantially reduced by decreasing exposure to motorised traffic, which should be considered by both bicycle commuters and urban planners; 3) exposure to PNC, and the incidence of offensive odour and nasopharyngeal irritation, can be significantly reduced when utilising a strategy of lowering proximity to motorised traffic whilst bicycle commuting, without significantly increasing commute distance or duration, which may bring important benefits for both healthy and susceptible individuals. In summary, the findings from this project suggests that bicycle commuters can significantly lower their exposure to ultrafine particle emissions by varying their commute route to reduce proximity to motorised traffic and associated combustion emissions without necessarily affecting their time of commute. While the health endpoints assessed with healthy individuals were not indicative of acute health detriment, individuals with pre-disposing physiological-susceptibility may benefit considerably from this risk management strategy – a necessary research focus with the contemporary increased popularity of both promotion and participation in bicycle commuting.

A multiscale road map of cancer spheroids : incorporating experimental and mathematical modelling to understand cancer progression

Computational models represent a highly suitable framework, not only for testing biological hypotheses and generating new ones but also for optimising experimental strategies. As one surveys the literature devoted to cancer modelling, it is obvious that immense progress has been made in applying simulation techniques to the study of cancer biology, although the full impact has yet to be realised. For example, there are excellent models to describe cancer incidence rates or factors for early disease detection, but these predictions are unable to explain the functional and molecular changes that are associated with tumour progression. In addition, it is crucial that interactions between mechanical effects, and intracellular and intercellular signalling are incorporated in order to understand cancer growth, its interaction with the extracellular microenvironment and invasion of secondary sites. There is a compelling need to tailor new, physiologically relevant in silico models that are specialised for particular types of cancer, such as ovarian cancer owing to its unique route of metastasis, which are capable of investigating anti-cancer therapies, and generating both qualitative and quantitative predictions. This Commentary will focus on how computational simulation approaches can advance our understanding of ovarian cancer progression and treatment, in particular, with the help of multicellular cancer spheroids, and thus, can inform biological hypothesis and experimental design.

The complexities of knowing what it is you are trapping

The effectiveness of any trapping system is highly dependent on the ability to accurately identify the specimens collected. For many fruit fly species, accurate identification (= diagnostics) using morphological or molecular techniques is relatively straightforward and poses few technical challenges. However, nearly all genera of pest tephritids also contain groups of species where single, stand-alone tools are not sufficient for accurate identification: such groups include the Bactrocera dorsalis complex, the Anastrepha fraterculus complex and the Ceratitis FAR complex. Misidentification of high-impact species from such groups can have dramatic consequences and negate the benefits of an otherwise effective trapping program. To help prevent such problems, this chapter defines what is meant by a species complex and describes in detail how the correct identification of species within a complex requires the use of an integrative taxonomic approach. Integrative taxonomy uses multiple, independent lines of evidence to delimit species boundaries, and the underpinnings of this approach from both the theoretical speciation literature and the systematics/taxonomy literature are described. The strength of the integrative approach lies in the explicit testing of hypotheses and the use of multiple, independent species delimitation tools. A case is made for a core set of species delimitation tools (pre- and post-zygotic compatibility tests, multi-locus phylogenetic analysis, chemoecological studies, and morphometric and geometric morphometric analyses) to be adopted as standards by tephritologists aiming to resolve economically important species complexes. In discussing the integrative approach, emphasis is placed on the subtle but important differences between integrative and iterative taxonomy. The chapter finishes with a case study that illustrates how iterative taxonomy applied to the B. dorsalis species complex led to incorrect taxonomic conclusions, which has had major implications for quarantine, trade, and horticultural pest management. In contrast, an integrative approach to the problem has resolved species limits in this taxonomically difficult group, meaning that robust diagnostics are now available.

The neuroscience of inspirational leadership: the importance of collective-oriented language and shared group membership

Effective leaders are believed to inspire followers by providing inclusive visions of the future that followers can identify with. In the present study, we examined the neural mechanisms underlying this process, testing key hypotheses derived from transformational and social identity approaches to leadership. While undergoing functional MRI, supporters from the two major Australian political parties (Liberal vs. Labor) were presented with inspirational collective-oriented and noninspirational personal-oriented statements made by in-group and out-group leaders. Imaging data revealed that inspirational (rather than noninspirational) statements from in-group leaders were associated with increased activation in the bilateral rostral inferior parietal lobule, pars opercularis, and posterior midcingulate cortex: brain areas that are typically implicated in controlling semantic information processing. In contrast, for out-group leaders, greater activation in these areas was associated with noninspirational statements. In addition, noninspirational statements by in-group (but not out-group) leaders resulted in increased activation in the medial prefrontal cortex, an area typically associated with reasoning about a person’s mental state. These results show that followers processed identical statements qualitatively differently as a function of leaders’ group membership, thus demonstrating that shared identity acts as an amplifier for inspirational leadership communication.

Performance-Based Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) Acceptance Procedures for In-Place Soil Testing Phase 3

One of the objectives of this study was to evaluate soil testing equipment based on its capability of measuring in-place stiffness or modulus values. As design criteria transition from empirical to mechanistic-empirical, soil test methods and equipment that measure properties such as stiffness and modulus and how they relate to Florida materials are needed. Requirements for the selected equipment are that they be portable, cost effective, reliable, a ccurate, and repeatable. A second objective is that the selected equipment measures soil properties without the use of nuclear materials.The current device used to measure soil compaction is the nuclear density gauge (NDG). Equipment evaluated in this research included lightweight deflectometers (LWD) from different manufacturers, a dynamic cone penetrometer (DCP), a GeoGauge, a Clegg impact soil tester (CIST), a Briaud compaction device (BCD), and a seismic pavement analyzer (SPA). Evaluations were conducted over ranges of measured densities and moistures.Testing (Phases I and II) was conducted in a test box and test pits. Phase III testing was conducted on materials found on five construction projects located in the Jacksonville, Florida, area. Phase I analyses determined that the GeoGauge had the lowest overall coefficient of variance (COV). In ascending order of COV were the accelerometer-type LWD, the geophone-type LWD, the DCP, the BCD, and the SPA which had the highest overall COV. As a result, the BCD and the SPA were excluded from Phase II testing.In Phase II, measurements obtained from the selected equipment were compared to the modulus values obtained by the static plate load test (PLT), the resilient modulus (MR) from laboratory testing, and the NDG measurements. To minimize soil and moisture content variability, the single spot testing sequence was developed. At each location, test results obtained from the portable equipment under evaluation were compared to the values from adjacent NDG, PLT, and laboratory MR measurements. Correlations were developed through statistical analysis. Target values were developed for various soils for verification on similar soils that were field tested in Phase III. The single spot testing sequence also was employed in Phase III, field testing performed on A-3 and A-2-4 embankments, limerock-stabilized subgrade, limerock base, and graded aggregate base found on Florida Department of Transportation construction projects. The Phase II and Phase III results provided potential trend information for future research—specifically, data collection for in-depth statistical analysis for correlations with the laboratory MR for specific soil types under specific moisture conditions. With the collection of enough data, stronger relationships could be expected between measurements from the portable equipment and the MR values. Based on the statistical analyses and the experience gained from extensive use of the equipment, the combination of the DCP and the LWD was selected for in-place soil testing for compaction control acceptance. Test methods and developmental specifications were written for the DCP and the LWD. The developmental specifications include target values for the compaction control of embankment, subgrade, and base materials.

Operationalizing the resource based view for nascent and young firms : developing scales for resource advantages and disadvantages

Principal Topic: It is well known that most new ventures suffer from a significant lack of resources, which increases the risk of failure (Shepherd, Douglas and Shanley, 2000) and makes it difficult to attract stakeholders and financing for the venture (Bhide & Stevenson, 1999). The Resource-Based View (RBV) (Barney, 1991; Wernerfelt, 1984) is a dominant theoretical base increasingly drawn on within Strategic Management. While theoretical contributions applying RBV in the domain of entrepreneurship can arguably be traced back to Penrose (1959), there has been renewed attention recently (e.g. Alvarez & Busenitz, 2001; Alvarez & Barney, 2004). This said, empirical work is in its infancy. In part, this may be due to a lack of well developed measuring instruments for testing ideas derived from RBV. The purpose of this study is to develop a measurement scales that can serve to assist such empirical investigations. In so doing we will try to overcome three deficiencies in current empirical measures used for the application of RBV to the entrepreneurship arena. First, measures for resource characteristics and configurations associated with typical competitive advantages found in entrepreneurial firms need to be developed. These include such things as alertness and industry knowledge (Kirzner, 1973), flexibility (Ebben & Johnson, 2005), strong networks (Lee et al., 2001) and within knowledge intensive contexts, unique technical expertise (Wiklund and Shepard, 2003). Second, the RBV has the important limitations of being relatively static and modelled on large, established firms. In that context, traditional RBV focuses on competitive advantages. However, newly established firms often face disadvantages, especially those associated with the liabilities of newness (Aldrich & Auster, 1986). It is therefore important in entrepreneurial contexts to expand to an investigation of responses to competitive disadvantage through an RBV lens. Conversely, recent research has suggested that resource constraints actually have a positive effect on firm growth and performance under some circumstances (e.g., George, 2005; Katila & Shane, 2005; Mishina et al., 2004; Mosakowski, 2002; cf. also Baker & Nelson, 2005). Third, current empirical applications of RBV measured levels or amounts of particular resources available to a firm. They infer that these resources deliver firms competitive advantage by establishing a relationship between these resource levels and performance (e.g. via regression on profitability). However, there is the opportunity to directly measure the characteristics of resource configurations that deliver competitive advantage, such as Barney´s well known VRIO (Valuable, Rare, Inimitable and Organized) framework (Barney, 1997). Key Propositions and Methods: The aim of our study is to develop and test scales for measuring resource advantages (and disadvantages) and inimitability for entrepreneurial firms. The study proceeds in three stages. The first stage developed our initial scales based on earlier literature. Where possible, we adapt scales based on previous work. The first block of the scales related to the level of resource advantages and disadvantages. Respondents were asked the degree to which each resource category represented an advantage or disadvantage relative to other businesses in their industry on a 5 point response scale: Major Disadvantage, Slight Disadvantage, No Advantage or Disadvantage, Slight Advantage and Major Advantage. Items were developed as follows. Network capabilities (3 items) were adapted from (Madsen, Alsos, Borch, Ljunggren & Brastad, 2006). Knowledge resources marketing expertise / customer service (3 items) and technical expertise (3 items) were adapted from Wiklund and Shepard (2003). flexibility (2 items), costs (4 items) were adapted from JIBS B97. New scales were developed for industry knowledge / alertness (3 items) and product / service advantages. The second block asked the respondent to nominate the most important resource advantage (and disadvantage) of the firm. For the advantage, they were then asked four questions to determine how easy it would be for other firms to imitate and/or substitute this resource on a 5 point likert scale. For the disadvantage, they were asked corresponding questions related to overcoming this disadvantage. The second stage involved two pre-tests of the instrument to refine the scales. The first was an on-line convenience sample of 38 respondents. The second pre-test was a telephone interview with a random sample of 31 Nascent firms and 47 Young firms (< 3 years in operation) generated using a PSED method of randomly calling households (Gartner et al. 2004). Several items were dropped or reworded based on the pre-tests. The third stage (currently in progress) is part of Wave 1 of CAUSEE (Nascent Firms) and FEDP (Young Firms), a PSED type study being conducted in Australia. The scales will be tested and analysed with a random sample of approximately 700 Nascent and Young firms respectively. In addition, a judgement sample of approximately 100 high potential businesses in each category will be included. Findings and Implications: The paper will report the results of the main study (stage 3 – currently data collection is in progress) will allow comparison of the level of resource advantage / disadvantage across various sub-groups of the population. Of particular interest will be a comparison of the high potential firms with the random sample. Based on the smaller pre-tests (N=38 and N=78) the factor structure of the items confirmed the distinctiveness of the constructs. The reliabilities are within an acceptable range: Cronbach alpha ranged from 0.701 to 0.927. The study will provide an opportunity for researchers to better operationalize RBV theory in studies within the domain of entrepreneurship. This is a fundamental requirement for the ability to test hypotheses derived from RBV in systematic, large scale research studies.

The S.T.A.B. Trial - Standardised Testing of Artificial Blood. A comparative study of various products that may be used as artificial blood for high fidelity simulation training in the critical care setting

Aim: In the current climate of medical education, there is an ever-increasing demand for and emphasis on simulation as both a teaching and training tool. The objective of our study was to compare the realism and practicality of a number of artificial blood products that could be used for high-fidelity simulation. Method: A literature and internet search was performed and 15 artificial blood products were identified from a variety of sources. One product was excluded due to its potential toxicity risks. Five observers, blinded to the products, performed two assessments on each product using an evaluation tool with 14 predefined criteria including color, consistency, clotting, and staining potential to manikin skin and clothing. Each criterion was rated using a five-point Likert scale. The products were left for 24 hours, both refrigerated and at room temperature, and then reassessed. Statistical analysis was performed to identify the most suitable products, and both inter- and intra-rater variability were examined. Results: Three products scored consistently well with all five assessors, with one product in particular scoring well in almost every criterion. This highest-rated product had a mean rating of 3.6 of 5.0 (95% posterior Interval 3.4-3.7). Inter-rater variability was minor with average ratings varying from 3.0 to 3.4 between the highest and lowest scorer. Intrarater variability was negligible with good agreement between first and second rating as per weighted kappa scores (K = 0.67). Conclusion: The most realistic and practical form of artificial blood identified was a commercial product called KD151 Flowing Blood Syrup. It was found to be not only realistic in appearance but practical in terms of storage and stain removal.

Testing the effectiveness of a Practice Development intervention on changing the culture of evidence based practice in an acute care environment

In this age of evidence-based practice, nurses are increasingly expected to use research evidence in a systematic and judicious way when making decisions about patient care practices. Clinicians recognise the role of research when it provides valid, realistic answers in practical situations. Nonetheless, research is still perceived by some nurses as external to practice and implementing research findings into practice is often difficult. Since its conceptual platform in the 1960s, the emergence and growth of Nursing Development Units, and later, Practice Development Units has been described in the literature as strategic, organisational vehicles for changing the way nurses think about nursing by promoting and supporting a culture of inquiry and research-based practice. Thus, some scholars argue that practice development is situated in the gap between research and practice. Since the 1990s, the discourse has shifted from the structure and outcomes of developing practice to the process of developing practice, using a Practice Development methodology; underpinned by critical social science theory, as a vehicle for changing the culture and context of care. The nursing and practice development literature is dominated by descriptive reports of local practice development activity, typically focusing on reflection on processes or outcomes of processes, and describing perceived benefits. However, despite the volume of published literature, there is little published empirical research in the Australian or international context on the effectiveness of Practice Development as a methodology for changing the culture and context of care - leaving a gap in the literature. The aim of this study was to develop, implement and evaluate the effectiveness of a Practice Development model for clinical practice review and change on changing the culture and context of care for nurses working in an acute care setting. A longitudinal, pre-test/post-test, non-equivalent control group design was used to answer the following research questions: 1. Is there a relationship between nurses' perceptions of the culture and context of care and nurses' perceptions of research and evidence-based practice? 2. Is there a relationship between engagement in a facilitated process of Practice Development and change in nurses' perceptions of the culture and context of care? 3. Is there a relationship between engagement in a facilitated process of Practice Development and change in nurses' perceptions of research and evidence-based practice? Through a critical analysis of the literature and synthesis of the findings of past evaluations of Nursing and Practice Development structures and processes, this research has identified key attributes consistent throughout the chronological and theoretical development of Nursing and Practice Development that exemplify a culture and context of care that is conducive to creating a culture of inquiry and evidence-based practice. The study findings were then used in the development, validation and testing of an instrument to measure change in the culture and context of care. Furthermore, this research has also provided empirical evidence of the relationship of the key attributes to each other and to barriers to research and evidence-based practice. The research also provides empirical evidence regarding the effectiveness of a Practice Development methodology in changing the culture and context of care. This research is noteworthy in its contribution to advancing the discipline of nursing by providing evidence of the degree to which attributes of the culture and context of care, namely autonomy and control, workplace empowerment and constructive team dynamics, can be connected to engagement with research and evidence-based practice.

Testing a belief-based intervention encouraging sun safety among adolescents in a high risk area

Objective. To provide a preliminary test of a Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) belief-based intervention to increase adolescents’ sun protective behaviors in a high risk area, Queensland, Australia. Methods. In the period of October-November, 2007 and May-June, 2008, 80 adolescents (14.53 ± 0.69 years) were recruited from two secondary schools (one government and one private) in Queensland after obtaining student, parental, and school informed consent. Adolescents were allocated to either a control or intervention condition based on the class they attended. The intervention comprised three, one hour in-school sessions facilitated by Cancer Council Queensland employees with sessions covering the belief basis of the TPB (i.e., behavioral, normative, and control [barrier and motivator] sun-safe beliefs). Participants completed questionnaires assessing sun-safety beliefs, intentions, and behavior pre- and post-intervention. Repeated Measures Multivariate Analysis of Variance was used to test the effect of the intervention across time on these constructs. Results. Students completing the intervention reported stronger sun-safe normative and motivator beliefs and intentions and the performance of more sun-safe behaviors across time than those in the control condition. Conclusion. Strengthening beliefs about the approval of others and motivators for sun protection may encourage sun-safe cognitions and actions among adolescents.

Examining psychosocial influences on speeding in Australian and Chinese contexts : a social learning approach

Speeding remains a significant contributing factor to road trauma internationally, despite increasingly sophisticated speed management strategies being adopted around the world. Increases in travel speed are associated with increases in crash risk and crash severity. As speed choice is a voluntary behaviour, driver perceptions are important to our understanding of speeding and, importantly, to designing effective behavioural countermeasures. The four studies conducted in this program of research represent a comprehensive approach to examining psychosocial influences on driving speeds in two countries that are at very different levels of road safety development: Australia and China. Akers’ social learning theory (SLT) was selected as the theoretical framework underpinning this research and guided the development of key research hypotheses. This theory was chosen because of its ability to encompass psychological, sociological, and criminological perspectives in understanding behaviour, each of which has relevance to speeding. A mixed-method design was used to explore the personal, social, and legal influences on speeding among car drivers in Queensland (Australia) and Beijing (China). Study 1 was a qualitative exploration, via focus group interviews, of speeding among 67 car drivers recruited from south east Queensland. Participants were assigned to groups based on their age and gender, and additionally, according to whether they self-identified as speeding excessively or rarely. This study aimed to elicit information about how drivers conceptualise speeding as well as the social and legal influences on driving speeds. The findings revealed a wide variety of reasons and circumstances that appear to be used as personal justifications for exceeding speed limits. Driver perceptions of speeding as personally and socially acceptable, as well as safe and necessary were common. Perceptions of an absence of danger associated with faster driving speeds were evident, particularly with respect to driving alone. An important distinction between the speed-based groups related to the attention given to the driving task. Rare speeders expressed strong beliefs about the need to be mindful of safety (self and others) while excessive speeders referred to the driving task as automatic, an absent-minded endeavour, and to speeding as a necessity in order to remain alert and reduce boredom. For many drivers in this study, compliance with speed limits was expressed as discretionary rather than mandatory. Social factors, such as peer and parental influence were widely discussed in Study 1 and perceptions of widespread community acceptance of speeding were noted. In some instances, the perception that ‘everybody speeds’ appeared to act as one rationale for the need to raise speed limits. Self-presentation, or wanting to project a positive image of self was noted, particularly with respect to concealing speeding infringements from others to protect one’s image as a trustworthy and safe driver. The influence of legal factors was also evident. Legal sanctions do not appear to influence all drivers to the same extent. For instance, fear of apprehension appeared to play a role in reducing speeding for many, although previous experiences of detection and legal sanctions seemed to have had limited influence on reducing speeding among some drivers. Disregard for sanctions (e.g., driving while suspended), fraudulent demerit point use, and other strategies to avoid detection and punishment were widely and openly discussed. In Study 2, 833 drivers were recruited from roadside service stations in metropolitan and regional locations in Queensland. A quantitative research strategy assessed the relative contribution of personal, social, and legal factors to recent and future self-reported speeding (i.e., frequency of speeding and intentions to speed in the future). Multivariate analyses examining a range of factors drawn from SLT revealed that factors including self-identity (i.e., identifying as someone who speeds), favourable definitions (attitudes) towards speeding, personal experiences of avoiding detection and punishment for speeding, and perceptions of family and friends as accepting of speeding were all significantly associated with greater self-reported speeding. Study 3 was an exploratory, qualitative investigation of psychosocial factors associated with speeding among 35 Chinese drivers who were recruited from the membership of a motoring organisation and a university in Beijing. Six focus groups were conducted to explore similar issues to those examined in Study 1. The findings of Study 3 revealed many similarities with respect to the themes that arose in Australia. For example, there were similarities regarding personal justifications for speeding, such as the perception that posted limits are unreasonably low, the belief that individual drivers are able to determine safe travel speeds according to personal comfort with driving fast, and the belief that drivers possess adequate skills to control a vehicle at high speed. Strategies to avoid detection and punishment were also noted, though they appeared more widespread in China and also appeared, in some cases, to involve the use of a third party, a topic that was not reported by Australian drivers. Additionally, higher perceived enforcement tolerance thresholds were discussed by Chinese participants. Overall, the findings indicated perceptions of a high degree of community acceptance of speeding and a perceived lack of risk associated with speeds that were well above posted speed limits. Study 4 extended the exploratory research phase in China with a quantitative investigation involving 299 car drivers recruited from car washes in Beijing. Results revealed a relatively inexperienced sample with less than 5 years driving experience, on average. One third of participants perceived that the certainty of penalties when apprehended was low and a similar proportion of Chinese participants reported having previously avoided legal penalties when apprehended for speeding. Approximately half of the sample reported that legal penalties for speeding were ‘minimally to not at all’ severe. Multivariate analyses revealed that past experiences of avoiding detection and punishment for speeding, as well as favourable attitudes towards speeding, and perceptions of strong community acceptance of speeding were most strongly associated with greater self-reported speeding in the Chinese sample. Overall, the results of this research make several important theoretical contributions to the road safety literature. Akers’ social learning theory was found to be robust across cultural contexts with respect to speeding; similar amounts of variance were explained in self-reported speeding in the quantitative studies conducted in Australia and China. Historically, SLT was devised as a theory of deviance and posits that deviance and conformity are learned in the same way, with the balance of influence stemming from the ways in which behaviour is rewarded and punished (Akers, 1998). This perspective suggests that those who speed and those who do not are influenced by the same mechanisms. The inclusion of drivers from both ends of the ‘speeding spectrum’ in Study 1 provided an opportunity to examine the wider utility of SLT across the full range of the behaviour. One may question the use of a theory of deviance to investigate speeding, a behaviour that could, arguably, be described as socially acceptable and prevalent. However, SLT seemed particularly relevant to investigating speeding because of its inclusion of association, imitation, and reinforcement variables which reflect the breadth of factors already found to be potentially influential on driving speeds. In addition, driving is a learned behaviour requiring observation, guidance, and practice. Thus, the reinforcement and imitation concepts are particularly relevant to this behaviour. Finally, current speed management practices are largely enforcement-based and rely on the principles of behavioural reinforcement captured within the reinforcement component of SLT. Thus, the application of SLT to a behaviour such as speeding offers promise in advancing our understanding of the factors that influence speeding, as well as extending our knowledge of the application of SLT. Moreover, SLT could act as a valuable theoretical framework with which to examine other illegal driving behaviours that may not necessarily be seen as deviant by the community (e.g., mobile phone use while driving). This research also made unique contributions to advancing our understanding of the key components and the overall structure of Akers’ social learning theory. The broader SLT literature is lacking in terms of a thorough structural understanding of the component parts of the theory. For instance, debate exists regarding the relevance of, and necessity for including broader social influences in the model as captured by differential association. In the current research, two alternative SLT models were specified and tested in order to better understand the nature and extent of the influence of differential association on behaviour. Importantly, the results indicated that differential association was able to make a unique contribution to explaining self-reported speeding, thereby negating the call to exclude it from the model. The results also demonstrated that imitation was a discrete theoretical concept that should also be retained in the model. The results suggest a need to further explore and specify mechanisms of social influence in the SLT model. In addition, a novel approach was used to operationalise SLT variables by including concepts drawn from contemporary social psychological and deterrence-based research to enhance and extend the way that SLT variables have traditionally been examined. Differential reinforcement was conceptualised according to behavioural reinforcement principles (i.e., positive and negative reinforcement and punishment) and incorporated concepts of affective beliefs, anticipated regret, and deterrence-related concepts. Although implicit in descriptions of SLT, little research has, to date, made use of the broad range of reinforcement principles to understand the factors that encourage or inhibit behaviour. This approach has particular significance to road user behaviours in general because of the deterrence-based nature of many road safety countermeasures. The concept of self-identity was also included in the model and was found to be consistent with the definitions component of SLT. A final theoretical contribution was the specification and testing of a full measurement model prior to model testing using structural equation modelling. This process is recommended in order to reduce measurement error by providing an examination of the psychometric properties of the data prior to full model testing. Despite calls for such work for a number of decades, the current work appears to be the only example of a full measurement model of SLT. There were also a number of important practical implications that emerged from this program of research. Firstly, perceptions regarding speed enforcement tolerance thresholds were highlighted as a salient influence on driving speeds in both countries. The issue of enforcement tolerance levels generated considerable discussion among drivers in both countries, with Australian drivers reporting lower perceived tolerance levels than Chinese drivers. It was clear that many drivers used the concept of an enforcement tolerance in determining their driving speed, primarily with the desire to drive faster than the posted speed limit, yet remaining within a speed range that would preclude apprehension by police. The quantitative results from Studies 2 and 4 added support to these qualitative findings. Together, the findings supported previous research and suggested that a travel speed may not be seen as illegal until that speed reaches a level over the prescribed enforcement tolerance threshold. In other words, the enforcement tolerance appears to act as a ‘de facto’ speed limit, replacing the posted limit in the minds of some drivers. The findings from the two studies conducted in China (Studies 2 and 4) further highlighted the link between perceived enforcement tolerances and a ‘de facto’ speed limit. Drivers openly discussed driving at speeds that were well above posted speed limits and some participants noted their preference for driving at speeds close to ‘50% above’ the posted limit. This preference appeared to be shaped by the perception that the same penalty would be imposed if apprehended, irrespective of what speed they travelling (at least up to 50% above the limit). Further research is required to determine whether the perceptions of Chinese drivers are mainly influenced by the Law of the People’s Republic of China or by operational practices. Together, the findings from both studies in China indicate that there may be scope to refine enforcement tolerance levels, as has happened in other jurisdictions internationally over time, in order to reduce speeding. Any attempts to do so would likely be assisted by the provision of information about the legitimacy and purpose of speed limits as well as risk factors associated with speeding because these issues were raised by Chinese participants in the qualitative research phase. Another important practical implication of this research for speed management in China is the way in which penalties are determined. Chinese drivers described perceptions of unfairness and a lack of transparency in the enforcement system because they were unsure of the penalty that they would receive if apprehended. Steps to enhance the perceived certainty and consistency of the system to promote a more equitable approach to detection and punishment would appear to be welcomed by the general driving public and would be more consistent with the intended theoretical (deterrence) basis that underpins the current speed enforcement approach. The use of mandatory, fixed penalties may assist in this regard. In many countries, speeding attracts penalties that are dependent on the severity of the offence. In China, there may be safety benefits gained from the introduction of a similar graduated scale of speeding penalties and fixed penalties might also help to address the issue of uncertainty about penalties and related perceptions of unfairness. Such advancements would be in keeping with the principles of best practice for speed management as identified by the World Health Organisation. Another practical implication relating to legal penalties, and applicable to both cultural contexts, relates to the issues of detection and punishment avoidance. These two concepts appeared to strongly influence speeding in the current samples. In Australia, detection avoidance strategies reported by participants generally involved activities that are not illegal (e.g., site learning and remaining watchful for police vehicles). The results from China were similar, although a greater range of strategies were reported. The most common strategy reported in both countries for avoiding detection when speeding was site learning, or familiarisation with speed camera locations. However, a range of illegal practices were also described by Chinese drivers (e.g., tampering with or removing vehicle registration plates so as to render the vehicle unidentifiable on camera and use of in-vehicle radar detectors). With regard to avoiding punishment when apprehended, a range of strategies were reported by drivers from both countries, although a greater range of strategies were reported by Chinese drivers. As the results of the current research indicated that detection avoidance was strongly associated with greater self-reported speeding in both samples, efforts to reduce avoidance opportunities are strongly recommended. The practice of randomly scheduling speed camera locations, as is current practice in Queensland, offers one way to minimise site learning. The findings of this research indicated that this practice should continue. However, they also indicated that additional strategies are needed to reduce opportunities to evade detection. The use of point-to-point speed detection (also known as sectio

Conducting statistical tests of hypotheses : five common misconceptions found in transportation research

Most statistical methods use hypothesis testing. Analysis of variance, regression, discrete choice models, contingency tables, and other analysis methods commonly used in transportation research share hypothesis testing as the means of making inferences about the population of interest. Despite the fact that hypothesis testing has been a cornerstone of empirical research for many years, various aspects of hypothesis tests commonly are incorrectly applied, misinterpreted, and ignored—by novices and expert researchers alike. On initial glance, hypothesis testing appears straightforward: develop the null and alternative hypotheses, compute the test statistic to compare to a standard distribution, estimate the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and then make claims about the importance of the finding. This is an oversimplification of the process of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing as applied in empirical research is examined here. The reader is assumed to have a basic knowledge of the role of hypothesis testing in various statistical methods. Through the use of an example, the mechanics of hypothesis testing is first reviewed. Then, five precautions surrounding the use and interpretation of hypothesis tests are developed; examples of each are provided to demonstrate how errors are made, and solutions are identified so similar errors can be avoided. Remedies are provided for common errors, and conclusions are drawn on how to use the results of this paper to improve the conduct of empirical research in transportation.

Power network in loop : a paradigm for real-time simulation and hardware testing

This paper discusses a new paradigm of real-time simulation of power systems in which equipment can be interfaced with a real-time digital simulator. In this scheme, one part of a power system can be simulated by using a real-time simulator; while the other part is implemeneted as a physical system. The only interface of the physical system with the computer-based simulator is through data-acquisition system. The physical system is driven by a voltage-source converter (VSC)that mimics the power system simulated in the real-time simulator. In this papar, the VSC operates in a voltage-control mode to track the point of common coupling voltage signal supplied by the digital simulator. This type of splitting a network in two parts and running a real-time simulation with a physical system in parallel is called a power network in loop here. this opens up the possibility of study of interconnection o f one or several distributed generators to a complex power network. The proposed implementation is verified through simulation studies using PSCAD/EMTDC and through hardware implementation on a TMS320G2812 DSP.

On-board mass monitoring of heavy vehicles : results of testing program

The Transport Certification Australia on-board mass feasibility project is testing various on-board mass devices in a range of heavy vehicles (HVs). Extensive field tests of on-board mass measurement systems for HVs have been conducted during 2008. These tests were of accuracy, robustness and tamper-evidence of heavy vehicle on-board mass telematics. All the systems tested showed accuracies within approximately +/- 500 kg of gross combination mass or approximately +/- 2% of the attendant weighbridge reading. Analysis of the dynamic data also showed encouraging results and has raised the possibility of use of such dynamic information in tamper evidence in two areas. This analysis was to determine if the use of averaged dynamic data could identify potential tampering or incorrect operating procedures as well as the possibility of dynamic measurements flagging a tamper event by the use of metrics including a tampering index (TIX). Technical and business options to detect tamper events will now be developed during implementation of regulatory OBM system application to Australian heavy vehicles (HVs).