Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Chemical and bioanalytical assessment of coal seam gas associated water

A comprehensive study was undertaken involving chemical (inorganic and organic) and bioanalytical (a suite of 14 in vitro bioassays) assessments of coal seam gas (coal bed methane) associated water (CSGW) in Queensland, Australia. CSGW is a by-product of the gas extraction process and is generally considered as water of poor quality. This was done to better understand what is known about the potential biological and environmental effects associated with the organic constituents of CSGW in Australia. In Queensland, large amounts of associated water must be withdrawn from coal seams to allow extraction of the gas. CSGW is disposed of via release to surface water, reinjected to groundwater or reused for irrigation of crops or pasture, supplied for power station cooling and or reinjected specifically to augment drinking water aquifers. Groundwater samples were collected from private wells tapping into the Walloon Coal Measures, the same coal aquifer exploited for coal seam gas production in the Surat Basin, Australia. The inorganic characteristics of these water samples were almost identical to the CSGW entering the nearby gas company operated Talinga-Condabri Water Treatment Facility. The water is brackish with a pH of 8 to 9, high sodium, bicarbonate and chloride concentrations but low calcium, magnesium and negligible sulphate concentrations. Only low levels of polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were detected in the water samples, and neither phenols nor volatile organic compounds were found. Results from the bioassays showed no genotoxicity, protein damage, or activation of hormone receptors (with the exception of the estrogen receptor). However, five of the 14 bioassays gave positive responses: an arylhydrocarbon-receptor gene activation assay (AhR-CAFLUX), estrogenic endocrine activity (ERα-CALUX), oxidative stress response (AREc32), interference with cytokine production (THP1-CPA) and non-specific toxicity (Microtox). The observed effects were benchmarked against known water sources and were similar to secondary treated wastewater effluent, stormwater and surface water. As mixture toxicity modelling demonstrated, the detected PAHs explained less than 5% of the observed biological effects.

Sexual selection in a tropical fruit fly : role of a plant derived chemical in mate choice

The specific mechanisms by which selective pressures affect individuals are often difficult to resolve. In tephritid fruit flies, males respond strongly and positively to certain plant derived chemicals. Sexual selection by female choice has been hypothesized as the mechanism driving this behaviour in certain species, as females preferentially mate with males that have fed on these chemicals. This hypothesis is, to date, based on studies of only very few species and its generality is largely untested. We tested the hypothesis on different spatial scales (small cage and seminatural field-cage) using the monophagous fruit fly, Bactrocera cacuminata. This species is known to respond to methyl eugenol (ME), a chemical found in many plant species and one upon which previous studies have focused. Contrary to expectation, no obvious female choice was apparent in selecting ME-fed males over unfed males as measured by the number of matings achieved over time, copulation duration, or time of copulation initiation. However, the number of matings achieved by ME-fed males was significantly greater than unfed males 16 and 32 days after exposure to ME in small cages (but not in a field-cage). This delayed advantage suggests that ME may not influence the pheromone system of B. cacuminata but may have other consequences, acting on some other fitness consequence (e.g., enhancement of physiology or survival) of male exposure to these chemicals. We discuss the ecological and evolutionary implications of our findings to explore alternate hypotheses to explain the patterns of response of dacine fruit flies to specific plant-derived chemicals.

Stretching-induced orientation to improve mechanical properties of electrospun pan nanocomposites

Partially aligned and oriented polyacrylonitrile(PAN)-based nanofibers were electrospun from PAN and SWNTs/PAN in the solution of dimethylformamide(DMF) to make the carbon nanofibers. The as-spun nanofibers were hot-stretched in an oven to enhance its orientation and crystallinity. Then it were stabilized at 250 square under a stretched stress, and carbonized at 1000 square in N-2 atmosphere by fixing the length of the stabilized nanofiber to convert them into carbon nanofibers. With this hot-stretched process and with the introduction of SWNTs, the mechanical properties will be enhanced correspondingly. The crystallinity of the stretched fibers confirmed by X-ray diffraction has also increased. For PAN nanofibers, the improved fiber alignment and crystallinity resulted in the increased mechanical properties, such as the modulus and tensile strength of the nanofibers. It was concluded that the hot-stretched nanofiber and the SWNTs/PAN nanofibers can be used as a potential precursor to produce high-performance carbon composites.

Developing within-company information and communication technologies (ICT) innovation diffusion networks : a study of three Australian major contractors

The innovation diffusion and knowledge management literature strongly supports the importance of communities of practice (COP) for enabling knowledge about how to use and adopt innovation initiatives. One of the most powerful tools for innovation diffusion is word-of-mouth wisdom from committed individuals who mentor and support each other. Close proximity for face-to-face interaction is highly effective, however, many organisations are geographically dispersed with projects being virtual linked sub-organisations using ICT to communicate. ICT has also introduced a useful facilitating technology for developing knowledge networks. This paper presents findings from a research program concentrating on ICT innovation diffusion in the Australian construction industry. One way in which ICT diffusion is taking place was found to be through within-company communities of practice. We undertook in-depth unstructured interviews with three of the major 10 to 15 contractors in Australia to discuss their ICT diffusion strategies. We discovered that in all three cases,within company networked communities of practice was a central strategy. Further, effective diffusion of ICT groupware tools can be critical in developing COP where they are geographically dispersed.

A study of Australian company responses to email complaints

As businesses and organisations move online, many question how to use Internet communication tools effectively, such as Web sites and electronic mail (Porter, 2001). Where and how should they invest their time and money in technology? This research explores a small part of this broad question, online complaining and electronic customer service. This paper extends prior US-based research of consumer complaints by email (Strauss and Hill, 2001) in several ways. First, it replicates their research in an Australian setting. Second, this research addresses several future research issues that Strauss and Hill (2001) raised. And third, this paper uses diffusion of innovation (Rogers, 1995) to explain some of the results. The results partially support the findings of Strauss and Hill (2001), take a small step towards further investigation of effective email responses and provide practical suggestions for better email customer service.

Frameworks in regulating company directors : rethinking the philosophical foundations to enhance accountability

Sets out a system of corporate governance regulation, aimed at combining legal and social methods of governing director behaviour and at creating a framework flexible enough to accommodate different business and ethical cultures. Outlines the theoretical basis of corporate governance and the broad responsibilities of directors, and discusses the extent to which they can and should be regulated. Discusses the constitution of a regulatory framework encompassing law, soft law and best practice, and ethics.

Internships in marketing: Goals, structures and assessment - student, company and academic perspectives

Work-integrated learning in the form of internships is increasingly important for universities as they seek to compete for students, and seek links with industries. Yet, there is surprisingly little empirical research on the details of internships: (1) What they should accomplish? How they should be structure? (3) How students performance should be assess? There is also surprisingly little conceptual analysis of these key issues, either for business internships in general. or for marketing internships in particular. Furthermore, the "answers" on these issues may differ depending upon the perspective if the three stakeholders: students, business managers and university academics. There is not study in the marketing literature which surveys all three groups on these important aspects of internships. To fill these gaps, this paper discusses and analyses internships goals, internship structure, and internship assessment or undergraduate marketing internships, and then reports on a survey of the views of all three stakeholder groups on these issues. There are a considerable variety of approaches for internships, but generally there is consensus among the stake holder groups, with some notable differences. Managerial implication include recognition of the importance of having and academic aspects in internships; mutual understanding concerning needs and constraints; and the requirement that companies, students, and academics take a long-term view of internship programs to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes.

The new wave : a Brisbane perspective : La Boite Theatre Company's distinctive contribution

In 1967 Brisbane Repertory Theatre made a decision that was to change the city's cultural landscape in a significant and lasting way. Faced with crippling theatre rental costs, Brisbane Rep. found a realistic solution by converting one of its properties - an old Queenslander - into a unique theatre space. The theatre-in-the box that emerged, aptly called La Boite, opened on 23 June 1967 with a production of John Osborne's Look Back in Anger. This experimental space excited the imagination of a new, younger audience not previously interested in Brisbane Rep's essentially conservative fare. It attracted a new group of directors and actors keen to be part of a changing repertoire that embraced more radical, non-mainstream productions, some of which were of Australian plays. The decade after 1967 was a period of change and development unprecedented in La Boite's history. Since then the company has sustained and grown its commitment to Australian plays and the commissioning of new works. To what extent was this most significance moment in La Boite's transformational journey influenced by southern 'new waves' of change? With the benefit of hindsight, it is now time for a re-consideration of Brisbane's distinctive contribution to the New Wave.