A sequential Monte Carlo approach to the sequential design for discriminating between rival continuous data models

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian sequential design for the incorporation of model uncertainty. The methodology is demonstrated through the development and implementation of two model discrimination utilities; mutual information and total separation, but it can also be applied more generally if one has different experimental aims. A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is run for each rival model (in parallel), and provides a convenient estimate of the marginal likelihood (of each model) given the data, which can be used for model comparison and in the evaluation of utility functions. A major benefit of this approach is that it requires very little problem specific tuning and is also computationally efficient when compared to full Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. This research is motivated by applications in drug development and chemical engineering.

Sponsoring a rival has benefits too: A longitudinal study of changes in fan attitudes toward favored-and opposing-team sponsor brands

A longitudinal field experiment examined sports fans’ attitudes toward favored- and opposing-team sponsors across time. Measurements at five timepoints showed fans’ attitudes were more positive toward their favored-team sponsors, but that attitudes improved across time toward both favored-team sponsors and opposing-team sponsors. This occurred regardless of intensity of fan identification.