Factor Five : Transforming the Global Economy through 80% Improvements in Resource Productivity

The 21st century will see monumental change. Either the human race will use its knowledge and skills and change the way it interacts with the environment, or the environment will change the way it interacts with its inhabitants. In the first case, the focus of this book, we would see our sophisticated understanding in areas such as physics, chemistry, engineering, biology, planning, commerce, business and governance accumulated over the last 1,000 years brought to bear on the challenge of dramatically reducing our pressure on the environment. The second case however is the opposite scenario, involving the decline of the planet’s ecosystems until they reach thresholds where recovery is not possible, and following which we have no idea what happens. For instance, if we fail to respond to Sir Nicolas Stern’s call to meet appropriate stabilisation trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions, and we allow the average temperature of our planets surface to increase by 4-6 degrees Celsius, we will see staggering changes to our environment, including rapidly rising sea level, withering crops, diminishing water reserves, drought, cyclones, floods… allowing this to happen will be the failure of our species, and those that survive will have a deadly legacy. In this update to the 1997 International Best Seller, Factor Four, Ernst von Weizsäcker again leads a team to present a compelling case for sector wide advances that can deliver significant resource productivity improvements over the coming century. The purpose of this book is to inspire hope and to then inform meaningful action in the coming decades to respond to the greatest challenge our species has ever faced – that of living in harmony with our planet and its other inhabitants.

Energy productivity and decarbonization of the global economy: Factor five resource productivity

In the 21st Century much of the world will experience untold wealth and prosperity that could not even be conceived only some three centuries before. However as with most, if not all, of the human civilisations, increases in prosperity have accumulated significant environmental impacts that threaten to result in environmentally induced economic decline. A key part of the world’s response to this challenge is to rapidly decarbonise economies around the world, with options to achieve 60-80 per cent improvements (i.e. in the order of Factor 5) in energy and water productivity now available and proven in every sector. Drawing upon the 2009 publication “Factor 5”, in this paper we discuss how to realise such large-scale improvements, involving complexity beyond technical and process innovation. We begin by considering the concept of greenhouse gas stabilisation trajectories that include reducing current greenhouse gas emissions to achieve a ‘peaking’ of global emissions, and subsequent ‘tailing’ of emissions to the desired endpoint in ‘decarbonising’ the economy. Temporal priorities given to peaking and tailing have significant implications for the mix of decarbonising solutions and the need for government and market assistance in causing them to be implemented, requiring careful consideration upfront. Within this context we refer to a number of examples of Factor 5 style opportunities for energy productivity and decarbonisation, and then discuss the need for critical economic contributions to take such success from examples to central mechanisms in decarbonizing the global economy.

Analysis of resource efficiency : a production frontier approach

This article integrates the material/energy flow analysis into a production frontier framework to quantify resource efficiency (RE). The emergy content of natural resources instead of their mass content is used to construct aggregate inputs. Using the production frontier approach, aggregate inputs will be optimised relative to given output quantities to derive RE measures. This framework is superior to existing RE indicators currently used in the literature. Using the exergy/emergy content in constructing aggregate material or energy flows overcomes a criticism that mass content cannot be used to capture different quality of differing types of resources. Derived RE measures are both ‘qualitative’ and ‘quantitative’, whereas existing RE indicators are only qualitative. An empirical examination into the RE of 116 economies was undertaken to illustrate the practical applicability of the new framework. The results showed that economies, on average, could reduce the consumption of resources by more than 30% without any reduction in per capita gross domestic product (GDP). This calculation occurred after adjustments for differences in the purchasing power of national currencies. The existence of high variations in RE across economies was found to be positively correlated with participation of people in labour force, population density, urbanisation, and GDP growth over the past five years. The results also showed that economies of a higher income group achieved higher RE, and those economies that are more dependent on imports and primary industries would have lower RE performance.

Mining resource profiles from event logs

Human resources are often responsible for the execution of business processes. In order to evaluate resource performance and identify best practices as well as opportunities for improvement, managers need objective information about resource behaviours. Companies often use information systems to support their processes and these systems record information about process execution in event logs. We present a framework for analysing and evaluating resource behaviour through mining such event logs. The framework provides a method for extracting descriptive information about resource skills, utilisation, preferences, productivity and collaboration patterns; a method for analysing relationships between different resource behaviours and outcomes; and a method for evaluating the overall resource productivity, tracking its changes over time and comparing it with the productivity of other resources. To demonstrate the applicability of our framework we apply it to analyse behaviours of employees in an Australian company and evaluate its usefulness by a survey among managers in industry.

How transit route passenger load and distance can together influence quality of service

This paper investigates: - correlation between transit route passenger loading and travel distance - its implications on quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity. It uses Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data across a weekday on a premium bus line in Brisbane, Australia. A composite load-distance factor is proposed as a new measure for profiling transit route on-board passenger comfort QoS. Understanding these measures and their correlation is important for planning, design, and operational activities.

How transit route passenger load and distance can together influence quality of service

This paper investigates quality of service and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel distance. Weekday Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate correlation between load factor and distance factor. Relationships between boardings and transit work indicate that distance factor generally increases with load factor. Time series analysis is then presented by examining each direction on an hour by hour basis. Inbound correlation is medium to strong across the entire span of service and strong for daytime services up to 19:30, while outbound correlation is strong across the entire span. Passengers tend to be making longer distance, peak direction commuter trips under the least comfortable conditions under stretched peak schedules than off-peak. Therefore productivity gains may be possible by adjusting fleet utilization during off-peak times. Weekday profiles by direction are established for a composite load-distance factor. A threshold corresponding to standing passengers on the Maximum Load Segment reveals that on-board loading and travel distance combined are more severe during the morning inbound peak than evening outbound peak, although the sharpness of the former suggests that encouraging shoulder peak travel during the morning would be more effective than evening peak. Further research suggested includes: consideration of travel duration factor, relating noise within hour to Peak Hour Factor, profiling load-distance factor across a range of case studies, and relating load-distance factor threshold to line length.

Whole System Design : An Integrated Approach to Sustainable Engineering

Whole System Design is increasingly being seen as one of the most cost effective ways to both increase the productivity and reduce the negative environmental impacts of an engineered system. A focus on design is critical, as the output from this stage of the project locks-in most of the economic and environmental performance of the designed system throughout its life, which can span from a few years to many decades. Indeed, it is now widely acknowledged that all designers – particularly engineers, architects and industrial designers – need to be able to understand and implement a whole system design approach. This book provides a clear design methodology, based on leading efforts in the field, and is supported by worked examples that demonstrate how advances in energy, materials and water productivity can be achieved through applying an integrated approach to sustainable engineering. Chapters 1–5 outline the approach and explain how it can be implemented to enhance the established Systems Engineering framework. Chapters 6–10 demonstrate, through detailed worked examples, the application of the approach to industrial pumping systems, passenger vehicles, electronics and computer systems, temperature control of buildings, and domestic water systems.

Decoupling 2 : technologies, opportunities and policy options

This report was produced by the Decoupling Working Group of the International Resource Panel. It explores technological possibilities and opportunities for both developing and developed countries to accelerate decoupling and reap the environmental and economic benefits of increased resource productivity. It also examines several policy options that have proved to be successful in helping different countries to improve resource productivity in various sectors of their economy, avoiding negative impacts on the environment. It does not seem possible for a global economy based on the current unsustainable patterns of resource use to continue into the future. The economic consequences of these patterns are already apparent in three areas: increases in resource prices, increased price volatility and disruption of environmental systems. The environment impacts of resource use are also leading to potentially irreversible changes to the world’s ecosystems, often with direct effects on people and the economy – for example through damage to health, water shortages, loss of fish stocks or increased storm damage. But there are alternatives to these scary patterns. Many decoupling technologies and techniques that deliver resource productivity increases as high as 5 to 10-fold are already available, allowing countries to pursue their development strategies while significantly reducing their resource footprint and negative impacts on the environment. This report shows that much of the policy design “know-how” needed to achieve decoupling is present in terms of legislation, incentive systems, and institutional reform. Many countries have tried these out with tangible results, encouraging others to study and where appropriate replicate and scale up such practices and successes.

Transit route occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time for quality of service assessment

This paper investigates quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel time. It highlights the value of occupancy load factor as a direct passenger comfort QoS measure. Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate time series correlation between occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time. Correlation is strong across the entire span of service in both directions. Passengers tend to be making longer, peak direction commuter trips under significantly less comfortable conditions than off-peak. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual uses segment based load factor as a measure of onboard loading comfort QoS. This paper provides additional insight into QoS by relating the two route based dimensions of occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time together in a two dimensional format, both from the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives. Future research will apply Value of Time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent onboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling. The methodology can be readily applied in a practical setting where AFC data for fixed scheduled routes is available. The study outcomes also provide valuable research and development directions.

Transit route occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time for quality of service assessment

This presentation investigates quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel time. It highlights the value of occupancy load factor as a direct passenger comfort QoS measure. Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate time series correlation between occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time. Correlation is strong across the entire span of service in both directions. Passengers tend to be making longer, peak direction commuter trips under significantly less comfortable conditions than off-peak. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual uses segment based load factor as a measure of onboard loading comfort QoS. This paper provides additional insight into QoS by relating the two route based dimensions of occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time together in a two dimensional format, both from the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives. Future research will apply Value of Time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent onboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling. The methodology can be readily applied in a practical setting where AFC data for fixed scheduled routes is available. The study outcomes also provide valuable research and development directions.

A taste of best practice in engineering sustainable solutions

This paper asks the question to what scale and speed does society need to reduce its ecological footprint and improve resource productivity to prevent further overshoot and return within the ecological limits of the earth’s ecological life support systems? How fast do these changes need to be achieved? The paper shows that now a large range of studies find that engineering sustainable solutions need to be roughly an order or magnitude resource productivity improvement (sometimes called a Factor of 10, or a 90% reduction) by 2050 to achieve real and lasting ecological sustainability. This marks a significant challenge for engineers – indeed all designers and architects, where best practice in engineering sustainable solutions will need to achieve large resource productivity targets. The paper brings together examples of best practice in achieving these large targets from around the world. The paper also highlights key resources and texts for engineers who wish to learn how to do it. But engineers need to be realistic and patient. Significant barriers exist to achieving Factor 4-10 such as the fact that infrastructure and technology rollover and replacement is often slow. This slow rollover of the built environment and technology is the context within which most engineers work, making the goal of achieving Factor 10 all the more challenging. However, the paper demonstrates that by using best practice in engineering sustainable solutions and by addressing the necessary market, information and institutional failures it is possible to achieve Factor 10 over the next 50 years. This paper draws on recent publications by The Natural Edge Project (TNEP) and partners, including Hargroves, K. Smith, M. (Eds) (2005) The Natural Advantage of Nations: Business Opportunities, Innovation and Governance for the 21st Century, and the TNEP Engineering Sustainable Solutions Program - Critical Literacies for Engineers Portfolio. Both projects have the significant support of Engineers Australia. its College of Environmental Engineers and the Society of Sustainability and Environmental Engineering.

Making the profitable transition towards sustainable business practice

The last three decades have been difficult for companies and industry. In an increasingly competitive international business climate with shifting national environmental regulations, higher standards are being demanded by the consumer and community groups, not-to-mention the escalating cost of primary resources such as water, steel and minerals. The cause of these pressures is the traditional notion held by business executives and engineers that there is an inherent trade off between eco-efficiency and improving the economic bottom line. However there is significant evidence and examples of best practice to show that there is in fact no trade-off between the environment and the economy if sustainable development through continual improvement is adopted. It is highly possible therefore for companies to make a profitable transition towards sustainable business practice, where along the transition significant business opportunities can be taken advantage of. Companies are by their very nature dynamic, influential and highly capable of adapting to change. Making an organisational transformation to a sustainable business is not outside the capacity of the typical company, who know much of what is needed already to change their activities to satisfy current market demands while achieving competitiveness. However in order to make the transition towards sustainable business practice companies require some key mechanisms such as accurate information on methodologies and opportunities, understanding of the financial and non-financial incentives, permission from stakeholders and shareholders, understanding of the emerging market opportunities, a critical mass of leaders in their sector and demonstrated case studies, and awarding appropriate risk-taking activities undertaken by engineers and CEOs. Satisfying these requirements will adopt an innovative culture within the company that strives for continual improvement and successfully transforms itself to achieve competitiveness in the 21st Century. This paper will summarise the experiences of The Natural Edge Project (TNEP) and its partners in assisting organisations to make a profitable transition towards sustainable business practice through several initiatives. The Natural Advantage of Nations publication provides the critical information required by business leaders and engineers to set the context of sustainable business practice. The Profiting in a Carbon Constrained World report, developed with Natural Capitalism Inc led by Hunter Lovins, summarises the opportunities available to companies to take advantage of the carbon trading market mechanisms such as the Chicago Climate Exchange and European Climate Exchange. The Sustainability Helix then guides the company through the transition by identifying the key tools and methodologies required by companies to reduce environmental loading while dramatically improving resource productivity and achieving competitiveness. Finally, the Engineering Sustainable Solutions Program delivers the key engineering information required by companies and university departments to deliver sustainable engineering solutions. The initiatives are of varying complexity and level of application, however all are designed to provide key staff the critical information required to make a profitable transition towards sustainable business practice. It is then their responsibility to apply and teach their knowledge to the rest of the organisation.

Assessment of transit quality of service with occupancy load factor and passenger travel time measures

This paper investigates quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel time. It highlights the value of occupancy load factor as a direct passenger comfort QoS measure. Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate time series correlation between occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time. Correlation is strong across the entire span of service in both directions. Passengers tend to be making longer, peak direction commuter trips under significantly less comfortable conditions than off-peak. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual uses segment based load factor as a measure of onboard loading comfort QoS. This paper provides additional insight into QoS by relating the two route based dimensions of occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time together in a two dimensional format, both from the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives. Future research will apply Value of Time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent onboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling. The methodology can be readily applied in a practical setting where AFC data for fixed scheduled routes is available. The study outcomes also provide valuable research and development directions.

Factor five - Towards global sustainability through doing much more with much less

This is a revised text of the third lecture of the 2014 public lecture series, "The Path Toward a Global Civilzation" hosted by the Institute of Oriental Philosophy on October 2 in Tokyo. Dr Desha is a research principal of the Australian team at the Natural Edge Project which published Factor 5: Transforming the Global Economy through 80% Increase in Resource Productivity (2009) in collaboration with Dr Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker.

Diverse urban plantings managed with sufficient resource availability can increase plant productivity and arthropod diversity

Buildings structures and surfaces are explicitly being used to grow plants, and these “urban plantings” are generally designed for aesthetic value. Urban plantings also have the potential to contribute significant “ecological values” by increasing urban habitat for animals such as arthropods and by increasing plant productivity. In this study, we evaluated how the provision of these additional ecological values is affected by plant species richness; the availability of essential resources for plants, such as water, light, space; and soil characteristics. We sampled 33 plantings located on the exterior of three buildings in the urban center of Brisbane, Australia (subtropical climatic region) over 2, 6 week sampling periods characterized by different temperature and rainfall conditions. Plant cover was estimated as a surrogate for productivity as destructive sampling of biomass was not possible. We measured weekly light levels (photosynthetically active radiation), plant CO2 assimilation, soil CO2 efflux, and arthropod diversity. Differences in plant cover were best explained by a three-way interaction of plant species richness, management water regime and sampling period. As the richness of plant species increased in a planter, productivity and total arthropod richness also increased significantly—likely due to greater habitat heterogeneity and quality. Overall we found urban plantings can provide additional ecological values if essential resources are maintained within a planter such as water, light and soil temperature. Diverse urban plantings that are managed with these principles in mind can contribute to the attraction of diverse arthropod communities, and lead to increased plant productivity within a dense urban context.