Varianza analitica y aproximada del costo total de un proyecto

La varianza estadística del costo total de un proyecto usualmente se estima por medio de la simulación de Monte Carlo, bajo el supuesto de que los acercamientos analíticos son demasiado complicados. Este artículo analiza este supuesto y muestra que, contrario a lo esperado, la solución analítica es relativamente directa. También se muestra que el coeficiente de variación no se ve afectado por el tamaño (área superficial) del proyecto cuando se usan los costos de los componentes estandarizados. Se provee un caso de estudio en el cual se analizan los costos reales de los componentes para obtener la varianza del costo total requerida. Los resultados confirman trabajos previos al mostrar que la aproximación del segundo momento (varianza) bajo el supuesto de independencia subestima considerablemente el valor exacto. El análisis continua examinando los efectos del juicio profesional y con los datos simulados utilizados, la aproximación resulta razonablemente exacta - el juicio profesional absorbe la mayor parte de las intercorrelaciones involucradas. También se da un ejemplo en el cual las cantidades de los componentes unitarios son valoradas por sus costos unitarios promedios y muestra, una vez más, que la aproximación es cercana al valor real. Finalmente, el trabajo se extiende mostrando cómo obtener, para cada proyecto, las varianzas exactas del costo total.

Desafios Para A Implementação Do Processo De Projeto Colaborativo: Análise Do Fator Humano

The ineffectiveness of current design processes has been well studied and has resulted in widespread calls for the evolution and development of new management processes. Perhaps one problem is that with the advent of BIM we are moving from one stage to another without necessarily having resolved all the issues. CAD design technology, if well handled, could have significantly raised the level of quality and efficiency of current processes, but in practice this was not fully realized. Therefore, technology alone can´t solve all the problems and the advent of BIM could result in a similar bottleneck. For a precise definition of the problem to be solved we should start by understanding what are the main current bottlenecks that have yet to be overcome by either new technologies or management processes, and the impact of human behavior related issues despite the advent of new technologies. The fragmented and dispersed nature of the AEC sector and the huge number of small organizations that comprise it would probably be a major limiting factor. Several authors have addressed this issue and more recently IDDS has been defined as the highest level of achievement. However, what is written on IDDS shows an extremely ideal situation on a state to be achieved; it shows a holistic utopian proposition with the intent to create the research agenda to move towards that state. Key to IDDS is the framing of a new management model which should address the problems associated with key aspects: technology, processes, policies and people. One of the primary areas to be further studied is the process of collaborative work and understanding, together with the development of proposals to overcome the many cultural barriers that currently exist and impede the advance of new management methods. The purpose of this paper is to define and delimit problems to be solved so that it is possible to implement a new management model for a collaborative design process.