Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Discharge parameters and dominant electron conductivity mechanism in a low-pressure planar magnetron discharge

Parameters of a discharge sustained in a planar magnetron configuration with crossed electric and magnetic fields are studied experimentally and numerically. By comparing the data obtained in the experiment with the results of calculations made using the proposed theoretical model, conclusion was made about the leading role of the turbulence-driven Bohm electron conductivity in the low-pressure operation mode (up to 1 Pa) of the discharge in crossed electric and magnetic fields. A strong dependence of the width of the cathode sputter trench, associated with the ionization region of the magnetron discharge, on the discharge parameters was observed in the experiments. The experimental data were used as input parameters in the discharge model that describes the motion of secondary electrons across the magnetic field in the ionization region and takes into account the classical, near-wall, and Bohm mechanisms of electron conductivity.

Intracellular effects of atmospheric-pressure plasmas on melanoma cancer cells

Gas discharge plasmas formed at atmospheric pressure and near room temperature have recently been shown as a promising tool for cancer treatment. The mechanism of the plasma action is attributed to generation of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species, electric fields, charges, and photons. The relative importance of different modes of action of atmospheric-pressure plasmas depends on the process parameters and specific treatment objects. Hence, an in-depth understanding of biological mechanisms that underpin plasma-induced death in cancer cells is required to optimise plasma processing conditions. Here, the intracellular factors involved in the observed anti-cancer activity in melanoma Mel007 cells are studied, focusing on the effect of the plasma treatment dose on the expression of tumour suppressor protein TP73. Over-expression of TP73 causes cell growth arrest and/or apoptosis, and hence can potentially be targeted to enhance killing efficacy and selectivity of the plasma treatment. It is shown that the plasma treatment induces dose-dependent up-regulation of TP73 gene expression, resulting in significantly elevated levels of TP73 RNA and protein in plasma-treated melanoma cells. Silencing of TP73 expression by means of RNA interference inhibited the anticancer effects of the plasma, similar to the effect of caspase inhibitor z-VAD or ROS scavenger N-acetyl cysteine. These results confirm the role of TP73 protein in dose-dependent regulation of anticancer activity of atmospheric-pressure plasmas.