Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grains

BACKGROUND: The presence of insects in stored grains is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspections of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and therefore to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grains, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper we demonstrate a sampling methodology that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grains. RESULTS: We show that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling program to detect insects in bulk grains. Our results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. We also demonstrate that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grains increases as the number of sub-samples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models.

Modeling crash outcome probabilities at rural intersections: Application of hierarchical binomial logistic models

It is important to examine the nature of the relationships between roadway, environmental, and traffic factors and motor vehicle crashes, with the aim to improve the collective understanding of causal mechanisms involved in crashes and to better predict their occurrence. Statistical models of motor vehicle crashes are one path of inquiry often used to gain these initial insights. Recent efforts have focused on the estimation of negative binomial and Poisson regression models (and related deviants) due to their relatively good fit to crash data. Of course analysts constantly seek methods that offer greater consistency with the data generating mechanism (motor vehicle crashes in this case), provide better statistical fit, and provide insight into data structure that was previously unavailable. One such opportunity exists with some types of crash data, in particular crash-level data that are collected across roadway segments, intersections, etc. It is argued in this paper that some crash data possess hierarchical structure that has not routinely been exploited. This paper describes the application of binomial multilevel models of crash types using 548 motor vehicle crashes collected from 91 two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia. Crash prediction models are estimated for angle, rear-end, and sideswipe (both same direction and opposite direction) crashes. The contributions of the paper are the realization of hierarchical data structure and the application of a theoretically appealing and suitable analysis approach for multilevel data, yielding insights into intersection-related crashes by crash type.

Sparseness vs estimating conditional probabilities : some asymptotic results

One of the nice properties of kernel classifiers such as SVMs is that they often produce sparse solutions. However, the decision functions of these classifiers cannot always be used to estimate the conditional probability of the class label. We investigate the relationship between these two properties and show that these are intimately related: sparseness does not occur when the conditional probabilities can be unambiguously estimated. We consider a family of convex loss functions and derive sharp asymptotic results for the fraction of data that becomes support vectors. This enables us to characterize the exact trade-off between sparseness and the ability to estimate conditional probabilities for these loss functions.

Effective adsorption of sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS) by hydrocalumite (CaAl-LDH-Cl) induced by self-dissolution and re-precipitation mechanism

Hydrocalumite (CaAl-LDH-Cl) were synthesized through a rehydration method involving a freshly prepared tricalcium aluminate (C3A) with CaCl2 solution. To understand the intercalation behaviour of sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS) with CaAl-LDH-Cl, X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscope (TEM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometer (ICP) and elemental analysis have been undertaken. The sorption isotherms with SDS reveal that the maximum sorption amount of SDS by CaAl-LDH-Cl could reach 3.67 mmol•g-1. The results revealed that CaAl-LDH-Cl holds a self-dissolution property, about 20-30% of which is dissolved. And the dissolved Ca2+, Al3+ ions are combined with SDS to form CaAl-SDS or Ca-SDS precipitation. It has been highlighted that the composition of resulting products is strongly dependent upon the SDS concentration. With increasing SDS concentrations, the main resulting product changes from CaAl-SDS to Ca-SDS, and the value of interlayer spacing increased to 3.27 nm.

Discriminating stromatolite formation modes using rare earth element geochemistry: Trapping and binding versus in situ precipitation of stromatolites from the Neoproterozoic Bitter Springs Formation, Northern Territory, Australia

Stromatolites consist primarily of trapped and bound ambient sediment and/or authigenic mineral precipitates, but discrimination of the two constituents is difficult where stromatolites have a fine texture. We used laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry to measure trace element (rare earth element – REE, Y and Th) concentrations in both stromatolites (domical and branched) and closely associated particulate carbonate sediment in interspaces (spaces between columns or branches) from bioherms within the Neoproterozoic Bitter Springs Formation, central Australia. Our high resolution sampling allows discrimination of shale-normalised REE patterns between carbonate in stromatolites and immediately adjacent, fine-grained ambient particulate carbonate sediment from interspaces. Whereas all samples show similar negative La and Ce anomalies, positive Gd anomalies and chondritic Y/Ho ratios, the stromatolites and non-stromatolite sediment are distinguishable on the basis of consistently elevated light REEs (LREEs) in the stromatolitic laminae and relatively depleted LREEs in the particulate sediment samples. Additionally, concentrations of the lithophile element Th are higher in ambient sediment samples than in stromatolites, consistent with accumulation of some fine siliciclastic detrital material in the ambient sediment but a near absence in the stromatolites. These findings are consistent with the stromatolites consisting dominantly of in situ carbonate precipitates rather than trapped and bound ambient sediment. Hence, high resolution trace element (REE + Y, Th) geochemistry can discriminate fine-grained carbonates in these stromatolites from coeval non-stromatolitic carbonate sediment and demonstrates that the sampled stromatolites formed primarily from in situ precipitation, presumably within microbial mats/biofilms, rather than by trapping and binding of ambient sediment. Identification of the source of fine carbonate in stromatolites is significant, because if it is not too heavily contaminated by trapped ambient sediment, it may contain geochemical biosignatures and/or direct evidence of the local water chemistry in which the precipitates formed.

A spectroscopic comparison of YBCO superconductors synthesised by solid-state and co-precipitation methods

Raman spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction (XRD), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) have been used to compare samples of YBa2Cu3O7 (YBCO) synthesised by the solid-state method and a novel co-precipitation technique. XRD results indicate that YBCO prepared by these two methods are phase pure, however the Raman and SEM results show marked differences between these samples.

Manufacture of specific BSCCO powder compositions by co-precipitation

A co-precipitation process for large-scale manufacture of bismuth-based HTSC powders has been demonstrated. Powders manufactured by this process have a high phase purity and precisely reproducible stoichiometry. Controlled time and temperature variations are used to convert precursors to HTSC compounds and to obtain specific particle-size distributions. The process has been demonstrated for a variety of compositions in the BSCCO system. Electron microscopy X-ray diffraction, inductively coupled plasma spectroscopy and magnetic-susceptibility measurements are used to characterize the powders.

Calcite precipitation induced by clay-bleach cation exchange in andesitic reservoir rocks

Experiments were carried out on the sodium hypochlorite bleach sensitivity of a deep subsurface andesitic reservoir in order to predict possible deleterious mineral transformations during a downhole clean-up job. Experiments involved examination of core samples from the reservoir using an Environmental Scanning Electron Microscope (ESEM) with an attached Energy Dispersive Spectrometer (EDS) before and after the samples were immersed in bleach. Bleach immersion of whole-rock samples resulted in rapid (less than 1 min) precipitation of abundant 3.0-10.0-μm-wide calcite rhombs within clay-associated micropores and on clay and feldspar grain surfaces. Abundant microporefilling calcite rhombs also formed in pure separates of constituent chlorite/corrensite, whereas no calcite formed in a pure separate of constituent zeolite. These experiments indicate that corrensite is the likely calcium source in this experimental fluid-rock system. Formation of calcite occurs via a cation exchange reaction in which calcium in the smectitic interlayers of corrensite exchanges for sodium in the bleach. Serious formation damage due to calcite precipitation would have occurred in the andesite reservoir had it been exposed to bleach. This finding gives credence to earlier suggestions that cation exchange reactions have the potential to cause calcite precipitation in some sandstone reservoirs when exposed to drilling, completion or stimulation fluids. © 1993.