Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investi gating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones), rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably) a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

Energy polarization and popular representation: Evidence from the Russian Duma

In this article we introduce the term “energy polarization” to explain the politics of energy market reform in the Russian Duma. Our model tests the impact of regional energy production, party cohesion and ideology, and electoral mandate on the energy policy decisions of the Duma deputies (oil, gas, and electricity bills and resolution proposals) between 1994 and 2003. We find a strong divide between Single-Member District (SMD) and Proportional Representation (PR) deputies High statistical significance of gas production is demonstrated throughout the three Duma terms and shows Gazprom's key position in the post-Soviet Russian economy. Oil production is variably significant in the two first Dumas, when the main legislative debates on oil privatization occur. There is no constant left–right continuum, which is consistent with the deputies' proclaimed party ideology. The pro- and anti-reform poles observed in our Poole-based single dimensional scale are not necessarily connected with liberal and state-oriented regulatory policies, respectively. Party switching is a solid indicator of Russia's polarized legislative dynamics when it comes to energy sector reform.

A simple orientation robust transmit polarization signalling scheme

A special transmit polarization signalling scheme is presented to alleviate the power reduction as a result of polarization mismatch from random antenna orientations. This is particularly useful for hand held mobile terminals typically equipped with only a single linearly polarized antenna, since the average signal power is desensitized against receiver orientations. Numerical simulations also show adequate robustness against incorrect channel estimations.

Validation Gating for Non-Linear Non-Gaussian Target Tracking

This paper develops a general theory of validation gating for non-linear non-Gaussian mod- els. Validation gates are used in target tracking to cull very unlikely measurement-to-track associa- tions, before remaining association ambiguities are handled by a more comprehensive (and expensive) data association scheme. The essential property of a gate is to accept a high percentage of correct associ- ations, thus maximising track accuracy, but provide a su±ciently tight bound to minimise the number of ambiguous associations. For linear Gaussian systems, the ellipsoidal vali- dation gate is standard, and possesses the statistical property whereby a given threshold will accept a cer- tain percentage of true associations. This property does not hold for non-linear non-Gaussian models. As a system departs from linear-Gaussian, the ellip- soid gate tends to reject a higher than expected pro- portion of correct associations and permit an excess of false ones. In this paper, the concept of the ellip- soidal gate is extended to permit correct statistics for the non-linear non-Gaussian case. The new gate is demonstrated by a bearing-only tracking example.

Polarization dependent photorefractive amplitude modulation production in MgO:LiNbO 3 phase modulators

We present experimental and theoretical results of the intensity dependence of residual amplitude modulation (RAM) production in electro-optic phase modulators. By utilizing the anisotropy of the medium, we show that RAM has a photorefractive origin.

Spin-polarization and ferromagnetism of graphitic carbon nitride materials

Polymeric graphitic carbon nitride materials have attracted increasing attention in recent years owning to their potential applications in energy conversion, environment protection, and so on. Here, from first-principles calculations, we report the electronic structure modification of graphitic carbon nitride (g-C3N4) in response to carbon doping. We showed that each dopant atom can induce a local magnetic moment of 1.0 μB in non-magnetic g-C3N4. At the doping concentration of 1/14, the local magnetic moments of the most stable doping configuration which has the dopant atom at the center of heptazine unit prefer to align in a parallel way leading to long-range ferromagnetic (FM) ordering. When the joint N atom is replaced by C atom, the system favors an antiferromagnetic (AFM) ordering at unstrained state, but can be tuned to ferromagnetism (FM) by applying biaxial tensile strain. More interestingly, the FM state of the strained system is half-metallic with abundant states at the Fermi level in one spin channel and a band gap of 1.82 eV in another spin channel. The Curie temperature (Tc) was also evaluated using a mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulations within the Ising model. Such tunable electron spin-polarization and ferromagnetism are quite promising for the applications of graphitic carbon nitride in spintronics.

Non-invasive assessment of corneal crosslinking changes using polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography

Collagen crosslinking (CXL) has shown promising results in the prevention of the progression of keratoconus and corneal ectasia. However, techniques for in vivo and in situ assessment of the treatment are limited. In this study, ex vivo porcine eyes were treated with a chemical CXL agent (glutaraldehyde), during which polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography (PS-OCT) recordings were acquired simultaneously to assess the sensitivity of the technique to assess changes in the cornea. The results obtained in this study suggest that PS-OCT may be a suitable technique to measure CXL changes in situ and to assess the local changes in the treated region of the cornea.

Gene Silencing in Arabidopsis Spreads from the Root to the Shoot, through a Gating Barrier, by Template-Dependent, Nonvascular, Cell-to-Cell Movement

Upward long-distance mobile silencing has been shown to be phloem mediated in several different solanaceous species. We show that the Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) seedling grafting system and a counterpart inducible system generate upwardly spreading long-distance silencing that travels not in the phloem but by template-dependent reiterated short-distance cell-to-cell spread through the cells of the central stele. Examining the movement of the silencing front revealed a largely unrecognized zone of tissue, below the apical meristem, that is resistant to the silencing signal and that may provide a gating or protective barrier against small RNA signals. Using a range of auxin and actin transport inhibitors revealed that, in this zone, alteration of vesicular transport together with cytoskeleton dynamics prevented or retarded the spread of the silencing signal. This suggests that small RNAs are transported from cell to cell via plasmodesmata rather than diffusing from their source in the phloem.

Collagen in the scarless fetal skin wound : detection with picrosirius-polarization

Our group has developed an ovine model of deep dermal, partial-thickness burn where the fetus heals scarlessly and the lamb heals with scar. The comparison of collagen structure between these two different mechanisms of healing may elucidate the process of scarless wound healing. Picrosirius staining followed by polarized light microscopy was used to visualize collagen fibers, with digital capture and analysis. Collagen deposition increased with fetal age and the fibers became thicker, changing from green (type III collagen) to yellow/red (type I collagen). The ratio of type III collagen to type I was high in the fetus (166), whereas the lamb had a much lower ratio (0.2). After burn, the ratios of type III to type I collagen did not differ from those in control skin for either fetus or lamb. The fetal tissue maintained normal tissue architecture after burn while the lamb tissue showed irregular collagen organization. In conclusion, the type or amount of collagen does not alter significantly after injury. Tissue architecture differed between fetal and lamb tissue, suggesting that scar development is related to collagen cross-linking or arrangement. This study indicates that healing in the scarless fetal wound is representative of the normal fetal growth pattern, rather than a "response" to burn injury.

Orientation robust transmit polarization diversity techniques

Polarisation diversity is a technique to improve the quality of mobile communications, but its reliability is suboptimal because it depends on the mobile channel and the antenna orientations at both ends of the mobile link. A method to optimise the reliability is established by minimising the dependency on antenna orientations. While the mobile base station can have fixed antenna orientation, the mobile terminal is typically a handheld device with random orientations. This means orientation invariance needs to be established at the receiver in the downlink, and at the transmitter in the uplink. This research presents separate solutions for both cases, and is based on the transmission of an elliptically polarised signal synthesised from the channel statistics. Complete receiver orientation invariance is achieved in the downlink. Effects of the transmitter orientation are minimised in the uplink.

Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

Primary and secondary neural networks of auditory prepulse inhibition: a functional magnetic resonance imaging study of sensorimotor gating of the human acoustic startle response

Feedforward inhibition deficits have been consistently demonstrated in a range of neuropsychiatric conditions using prepulse inhibition (PPI) of the acoustic startle eye-blink reflex when assessing sensorimotor gating. While PPI can be recorded in acutely decerebrated rats, behavioural, pharmacological and psychophysiological studies suggest the involvement of a complex neural network extending from brainstem nuclei to higher order cortical areas. The current functional magnetic resonance imaging study investigated the neural network underlying PPI and its association with electromyographically (EMG) recorded PPI of the acoustic startle eye-blink reflex in 16 healthy volunteers. A sparse imaging design was employed to model signal changes in blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) responses to acoustic startle probes that were preceded by a prepulse at 120 ms or 480 ms stimulus onset asynchrony or without prepulse. Sensorimotor gating was EMG confirmed for the 120-ms prepulse condition, while startle responses in the 480-ms prepulse condition did not differ from startle alone. Multiple regression analysis of BOLD contrasts identified activation in pons, thalamus, caudate nuclei, left angular gyrus and bilaterally in anterior cingulate, associated with EMGrecorded sensorimotor gating. Planned contrasts confirmed increased pons activation for startle alone vs 120-ms prepulse condition, while increased anterior superior frontal gyrus activation was confirmed for the reverse contrast. Our findings are consistent with a primary pontine circuitry of sensorimotor gating that interconnects with inferior parietal, superior temporal, frontal and prefrontal cortices via thalamus and striatum. PPI processes in the prefrontal, frontal and superior temporal cortex were functionally distinct from sensorimotor gating.

Disrupted sensory gating in pathological gambling

Background Some neurochemical evidence as well as recent studies on molecular genetics suggest that pathologic gambling may be related to dysregulated dopamine neurotransmission. Methods The current study examined sensory (motor) gating in pathologic gamblers as a putative measure of endogenous brain dopamine activity with prepulse inhibition of the acoustic startle eye-blink response and the auditory P300 event-related potential. Seventeen pathologic gamblers and 21 age- and gender-matched healthy control subjects were assessed. Both prepulse inhibition measures were recorded under passive listening and two-tone prepulse discrimination conditions. Results Compared to the control group, pathologic gamblers exhibited disrupted sensory (motor) gating on all measures of prepulse inhibition. Sensory motor gating deficits of eye-blink responses were most profound at 120-millisecond prepulse lead intervals in the passive listening task and at 240-millisecond prepulse lead intervals in the two-tone prepulse discrimination task. Sensory gating of P300 was also impaired in pathologic gamblers, particularly at 500-millisecond lead intervals, when performing the discrimination task on the prepulse. Conclusions In the context of preclinical studies on the disruptive effects of dopamine agonists on prepulse inhibition, our findings suggest increased endogenous brain dopamine activity in pathologic gambling in line with previous neurobiological findings.