Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Attitudes towards American brands and brand America

A study of 556 students at colleges and universities in Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore explored the relationship between attitude towards the United States and brand attitudes and preferences. Singaporean student attitudes towards both the US Government and US people were higher than were those of the Australian and Hong Kong students. Coke, Nike and McDonald's were among both the most-liked and disliked US brands among the international students, a finding suggesting that brands may possess both a 'lovemark' status, as described in the literature, and its opposite — 'loathemark' status — within the same demographic group. US brand preference scores did not offer support for the belief that international consumers 'vote with their pocketbooks' by refusing to purchase US brands if they have a negative attitude towards the United States. Among Hong Kong and Singaporean students, favourable attitudes towards the purchase of US brands was found to be positively related to favourability towards the US Government.

Diversity management for innovation in social enterprises in the UK

This paper examines the linkages between diversity management (DM), innovation and high performance in social enterprises. These linkages are explicated beyond traditional framing of DM limited to workforce composition, to include discussions of innovation through networked diversity practices; reconciliation; and funding options. The paper draws upon a UK-based national survey and the case study data. Multiple data collection methods were used, including semi-structured interviews, questionnaires and workshops with participant observation. NVivo and SPSS software packages were utilized in order to analyse the qualitative and quantitative data, respectively. We used thematic coding and cropping techniques in analysing the case studies in the paper. A broad range of conflicting and supporting literature was enfolded into the conversations and discussion. The paper demonstrates that social enterprises exhibit unique characteristics in terms of size and location, as well as their double remit to add value both economically and socially. As a conclusion, we argue for social enterprises to consider options for DM in the interests of maximization of innovation and business performance. We contend that further research is needed to describe how social entrepreneurs draw upon their various ‘diversity resources’ in the process of innovation

Business Process Data Compliance

Most approaches to business process compliance are restricted to the analysis of the structure of processes. It has been argued that full regulatory compliance requires information on not only the structure of processes but also on what the tasks in a process do. To this end Governatori and Sadiq[2007] proposed to extend business processes with semantic annotations. We propose a methodology to automatically extract one kind of such annotations; in particular the annotations related to the data schema and templates linked to the various tasks in a business process.

Exeter short stems compared with standard length Exeter stems : experience from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry

The standard Exeter stem has a length of 150mm with offsets 37.5mm to 56mm. Shorter stems of lengths 95mm, 115mm and 125mm with offsets 35.5mm or less are available for patients with smaller femurs. Concern has been raised regarding the behaviour of the smaller implants. This paper analysed data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry comparing survivorship of stems of offset 35.5mm or less with the standard stems of 37.5mm offset or greater. At seven years there was no significant difference in the Cumulative Percent Revision Rate in the short stems (3.4%, 95% CI 2.4-4.8%) compared with the standard length stems (3.5%, 95% CI 3.3-3.8%) despite its use in a greater proportion of potentially more difficult developmental dysplasia of the hip cases.

Outcomes following inpatient rehabilitation : a seven year perspective

Introduction: Improving physical and cognitive functioning is a key objective of multi-disciplinary inpatient geriatric rehabilitation. Outcomes relevant to minimum functional ability required for older adults to successfully participate in the community have been reported. However, there has been little investigation reporting outcomes of older inpatients receiving multi-disciplinary rehabilitation being discharged home from geriatric rehabilitation units. This study aims to investigate characteristics and physical and cognitive outcomes of this cohort. Method: The Princess Alexandra Hospital Geriatric and Rehabilitation Unit is the largest rehabilitation unit in Queensland. Multidisciplinary health professionals enter admission and discharge functional and clinical outcomes along with demographic information into a purpose designed database for all patients. Data collected between 2005 and 2011 was analysed using descriptive statistics. Results: During the seven-year period, 4120 patients were admitted for rehabilitation; 2126 (52%) were female, mean age of 74 years (Standard Deviation 14). Primary reasons for admission were for reconditioning post medical illness or surgical admission (n = 1285, 31%), and 30% (n = 1233) admitted for orthopaedic reasons. Of these orthopaedic admissions, 6.6% (n = 82) were for elective surgery, and 46% (n = 565) were for fractured neck-of-femurs. 76% (n = 3130) of patients were discharged home, 13% (n = 552) to residential care facilities and 10% (n = 430) were discharged to an alternative hospital setting or passed away during their admission. Mean length of stay was 44 days (SD 39) Preliminary analysis of FIM outcomes shows a mean motor score of 53 (SD = 19) on admission which significantly improved to 71 (SD = 18) by discharge. There was no change on FIM cognitive score (28 (SD7) vs 29 (SD 6). Conclusion: Geriatric patients have significant functional limitations even on discharge from inpatient rehabilitation; though overall cognition is relatively intact. Orthopaedic conditions and general deconditioning from medical/surgical admissions are the main reasons for admission. The majority of people receiving rehabilitation are discharged home.

Cooking enhances but the degree of ripeness does not affect provitamin A carotenoid bioavailability from bananas

Banana is a staple crop in many regions where vitamin A deficiency is prevalent, making it a target for provitamin A biofortification. However, matrix effects may limit provitamin A bioavailability from bananas. The retinol bioefficacies of unripe and ripe bananas (study 1A), unripe high-provitamin A bananas (study 1B), and raw and cooked bananas (study 2) were determined in retinol-depleted Mongolian gerbils (n = 97/study) using positive and negative controls. After feeding a retinol-deficient diet for 6 and 4 wk in studies 1 and 2, respectively, customized diets containing 60, 30, or 15% banana were fed for 17 and 13 d, respectively. In study 1A, the hepatic retinol of the 60% ripe Cavendish group (0.52 ± 0.13 μmol retinol/liver) differed from baseline (0.65 ± 0.15 μmol retinol/liver) and was higher than the negative control group (0.39 ± 0.16 μmol retinol/liver; P < 0.0065). In study 1B, no groups differed from baseline (0.65 ± 0.15 μmol retinol/liver; P = 0.20). In study 2, the 60% raw Butobe group (0.68 ± 0.17 μmol retinol/liver) differed from the 60% cooked Butobe group (0.87 ± 0.24 μmol retinol/liver); neither group differed from baseline (0.80 ± 0.27 μmol retinol/liver; P < 0.0001). Total liver retinol was higher in the groups fed cooked bananas than in those fed raw (P = 0.0027). Body weights did not differ even though gerbils ate more green, ripe, and raw bananas than cooked, suggesting a greater indigestible component. In conclusion, thermal processing, but not ripening, improves the retinol bioefficacy of bananas. Food matrix modification affects carotenoid bioavailability from provitamin A biofortification targets.

Normative requirements for business process compliance

Norms regulate the behaviour of their subjects and define what is legal and what is illegal. Norms typically describe the conditions under which they are applicable and the normative effects as a results of their applications. On the other hand, process models specify how a business operation or service is to be carried out to achieve a desired outcome. Norms can have significant impact on how business operations are conducted and they can apply to the whole or part of a business process. For example, they may impose conditions on the different aspects of a process (e.g., perform tasks in a specific sequence (control-flow), at a specific time or within a certain time frame (temporal aspect), by specific people (resources)). We propose a framework that provides the formal semantics of the normative requirements for determining whether a business process complies with a normative document (where a normative document can be understood in a very broad sense, ranging from internal policies to best practice policies, to statutory acts). We also present a classification of normal requirements based on the notion of different types of obligations and the effects of violating these obligations.

Risky driving behavior among university students and staff in the Sultanate of Oman

Background: There is a well developed literature on research investigating the relationship between various driving behaviours and road crash involvement. However, this research has predominantly been conducted in developed economies dominated by western types of cultural environments. To date no research has been published that has empirically investigated this relationship within the context of the emerging economies such as Oman. Objective: The present study aims to investigate driving behaviour as indexed in the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) among a group of Omani university students and staff. Methods: A convenience non-probability self- selection sampling approach was utilized with Omani university students and staff. Results: A total of 1003 Omani students (n= 632) and staff (n=371) participated in the survey. Factor analysis of the BDQ revealed four main factors that were errors, speeding violation, lapses and aggressive violation. In the multivariate logistic backward regression analysis, the following factors were identified as significant predictors of being involved in causing at least one crash: driving experience, history of offences and two DBQ components i.e. errors and aggressive violation. Conclusion: This study indicates that errors and aggressive violation of the traffic regulations as well as history of having traffic offences are major risk factors for road traffic crashes among the sample. While previous international research has demonstrated that speeding is a primary cause of crashing, in the current context, the results indicate that an array of factors is associated with crashes. Further research using more rigorous methodology is warranted to inform the development of road safety countermeasures in Oman that improves overall traffic safety culture.

A methodological evaluation of business process compliance management frameworks

Existing compliance management frameworks (CMFs) offer a multitude of compliance management capabilities that makes difficult for enterprises to decide on the suitability of a framework. Making a decision on the suitability requires a deep understanding of the functionalities of a framework. Gaining such an understanding is a difficult task which, in turn, requires specialised tools and methodologies for evaluation. Current compliance research lacks such tools and methodologies for evaluating CMFs. This paper reports a methodological evaluation of existing CMFs based on a pre-defined evaluation criteria. Our evaluation highlights what existing CMFs offer, and what they cannot. Also, it underpins various open questions and discusses the challenges in this direction.

Modeling obligations with event-calculus

Time plays an important role in norms. In this paper we start from our previously proposed classification of obligations, and point out some shortcomings of Event Calculus (EC) to represent obligations. We proposed an extension of EC that avoids such shortcomings and we show how to use it to model the various types of obligations.

Ongoing outbreak of dengue serotype 3 in Solomon Islands, January to May 2013

Introduction In January 2013, clinicians in Honiara, Solomon Islands noted several patients presenting with dengue-like illness. Serum from three cases tested positive for dengue by rapid diagnostic test. Subsequent increases in cases were reported, and the outbreak was confirmed as being dengue serotype-3 by further laboratory tests. This report describes the ongoing outbreak investigation, findings and response. Methods Enhanced dengue surveillance was implemented in the capital, Honiara, and in the provinces. This included training health staff on dengue case definitions, data collection and reporting. Vector surveillance was also conducted. Results From 3 January to 15 May 2013, 5254 cases of suspected dengue were reported (101.8 per 10 000 population), including 401 hospitalizations and six deaths. The median age of cases was 20 years (range zero to 90), and 86% were reported from Honiara. Both Aedes aegyti and Aedes albopictus were identified in Honiara. Outbreak response measures included clinical training seminars, vector control activities, implementation of diagnostic and case management protocols and a public communication campaign. Discussion This was the first large dengue outbreak documented in Solomon Islands. Factors that may have contributed to this outbreak include a largely susceptible population, the presence of a highly efficient dengue vector in Honiara, a high-density human population with numerous breeding sites and favourable weather conditions for mosquito proliferation. Although the number of cases has plateaued since 1 April, continued enhanced nationwide surveillance and response activities are necessary.