The politics of foreign aid: A median voter perspective

The paper presents a model where the median voter in the donor country determines the support of foreign aid. It is first established that an individual in the donor country is affected by the direct benefits (due to altruism) and costs (due to taxes) of giving aid, and by the indirect benefits or costs of a change in the terms of trade. Then it is shown that the latter effect works through changing both the donor country's average income and its distribution of income. Given the stylized facts of a capital-abundant donor country and relatively capital-poor median voter, it is shown how redistribution-of-income effects soften the impact of terms-of-trade changes on the political support for foreign aid.

Voter behaviour and constitutional change in Australia since 1967

Australian Constitutional referendums have been part of the Australian political system since federation. Up to the year 1999 (the time of the last referendum in Australia), constitutional change in Australia does not have a good history of acceptance. Since 1901, there have been 44 proposed constitutional changes with eight gaining the required acceptance according to section 128 of the Australian Constitution. In the modern era since 1967, there have been 20 proposals over seven referendum votes for a total of four changes. Over this same period, there have been 13 federal general elections which have realised change in government just five times. This research examines the electoral behaviour of Australian voters from 1967 to 1999 for each referendum. Party identification has long been a key indicator in general election voting. This research considers whether the dominant theory of voter behaviour in general elections (the Michigan Model) provides a plausible explanation for voting in Australian referendums. In order to explain electoral behaviour in each referendum, this research has utilised available data from the Australian Electoral Commission, the 1996 Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data, and the 1999 Australian Constitutional Referendum Study. This data has provided the necessary variables required to measure the impact of the Michigan Model of voter behaviour. Measurements have been conducted using bivariate and multivariate analyses. Each referendum provides an overview of the events at the time of the referendum as well as the =yes‘ and =no‘ cases at the time each referendum was initiated. Results from this research provide support for the Michigan Model of voter behaviour in Australian referendum voting. This research concludes that party identification, as a key variable of the Michigan Model, shows that voters continue to take their cues for voting from the political party they identify with in Australian referendums. However, the outcome of Australian referendums clearly shows that partisanship is only one of a number of contributory factors in constitutional referendums.

The impact of fatigue caused by sprint running on the median power frequency of the hamstring muscle group

Hamstring strain injuries (HSI) are the predominant non-contact injury in many sports. Intermittent running has been shown to result in preferential reductions in eccentric hamstring strength, which increase the risk of sustaining a HSI. The eccentric specific nature of this decline in hamstring function implicates central mechanisms, as peripheral fatigue mechanisms tend to impact upon both concentric and eccentric contractions modes. However, neural function of the hamstrings, such as the median power frequency (MPF) of the surface electromyography signal has yet to be examined in the fatigued hamstring following intermittent sprint running. AIM: To determine the impact of fatigue induced by intermittent sprinting on the MPF of the medial and lateral hamstring muscles. METHODS: Fifteen recreationally active males completed 18 × 20m overground sprints. Maximal strength (concentric and eccentric knee flexor and concentric knee extensor) was determined isokinetically at the velocities of ±180.s-1 and ±60.s- while hamstring muscle activation was assessed using surface electromyography, before and 15 minutes after the running protocol. RESULTS: Overground intermittent running caused a significant reduction in eccentric knee flexor strength (27.2 Nm; 95% CI = 11.2 to 43.3; p=0.0001) but not concentric strength (9.3 Nm; 95% CI = -6.7 to 25.3; P=0.6361). Following the overground running, MPF of the lateral hamstrings showed a significant decline eccentrically (0.86; 95% CI = 0.59 to 1.54; P=0.038) and concentrically (0.76; 95%CI = 0.66 to 0.83; P=0.039). Similar declines in MPF were also noted in the medial hamstrings eccentrically (1.54; 95% CI = 0.59 to 7.9; P=0.005) and concentrically (1.18; 95% CI = 0.44 to 6.8; P=0.040). CONCLUSION: Whilst sprint running induced fatigue led to a eccentric specific reduction in knee flexor torque, MPF was suppressed across both contraction modes. This would indicate that factors associated with the decline in MPF do not appear to explain the contraction mode-specific loss of strength after intermittent sprints. This would implicate other central mechanisms, such as declines in voluntary activation, in explaining the eccentric specific decline in strength seen following sprint running.

Leadership change, policy issues and voter defection in the 2010 Australian election

Leadership change formed the backdrop to the 2010 Australian federal election, with the replacement of Kevin Rudd as prime minister by Julia Gillard, the country’s first female prime minister. This article uses the 2010 Australian Election Study, a post-election survey of voters, to examine patterns of voter defection between the 2007 and 2010 elections. The results show that the predominant influence on defection was how voters rated the leaders. Julia Gillard was particularly popular among female voters and her overall impact on the vote was slightly greater than that of Tony Abbott. Policy issues were second in importance after leadership, particularly for those moving from the Coalition to Labor, who were concerned about health and unemployment. Labor defectors to the Greens particularly disliked Labor’s education policies. Overall, the results point to the enduring importance of leaders as the predominant influence on how voters cast their ballot.

Bounded rationality and voting decisions over 160 years : voter behavior and increasing complexity in decision-making

Using a quasi-natural voting experiment encompassing a 160-year period (1848–2009) in Switzerland, we investigate whether a higher level of complexity leads to increased reliance on trusted parliamentary representatives. We find that when more referenda are held on the same day, constituents are more likely to refer to parliamentary recommendations when making their decisions. This finding holds true even when we narrow our focus to referenda with a relatively lower voter turnout on days on which more than one referendum is held. We also demonstrate that when constituents face a higher level of complexity, they follow the parliamentary recommendations rather than those of interest groups. "Viewed as a geometric figure, the ant’s path is irregular, complex, hard to describe. But its complexity is really a complexity in the surface of the beach, not a complexity in the ant." ([1] p. 51)

Indoor exposure to submicrometer particles and PM2.5 in residential houses in Brisbane, Australia

As part of a large study investigating indoor air in residential houses in Brisbane, Australia, the purpose of this work was to quantify indoor exposure to submicrometer particles and PM2.5 for the inhabitants of 14 houses. Particle concentrations were measured simultaneously for more than 48 hours in the kitchens of all the houses by using a condensation particle counter (CPC) and a photometer (DustTrak). The occupants of the houses were asked to fill in a diary, noting the time and duration of any activity occurring throughout the house during measurement, as well as their presence or absence from home. From the time series concentration data and the information about indoor activities, exposure to the inhabitants of the houses was calculated for the entire time they spent at home as well as during indoor activities resulting in particle generation. The results show that the highest median concentration level occurred during cooking periods for both particle number concentration (47.5´103 particles cm-3) and PM2.5 concentration (13.4 mg m-3). The highest residential exposure period was the sleeping period for both particle number exposure (31%) and PM2.5 exposure (45.6%). The percentage of the average residential particle exposure level in total 24h particle exposure level was approximating 70% for both particle number and PM2.5 exposure.

Particle and gaseous emissions from compressed natural gas and ultralow sulphur diesel-fuelled buses at four steady engine loads

Exhaust emissions from thirteen compressed natural gas (CNG) and nine ultralow sulphur diesel in-service transport buses were monitored on a chassis dynamometer. Measurements were carried out at idle and at three steady engine loads of 25%, 50% and 100% of maximum power at a fixed speed of 60 kmph. Emission factors were estimated for particle mass and number, carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen for two types of CNG buses (Scania and MAN, compatible with Euro 2 and 3 emission standards, respectively) and two types of diesel buses (Volvo Pre-Euro/Euro1 and Mercedez OC500 Euro3). All emission factors increased with load. The median particle mass emission factor for the CNG buses was less than 1% of that from the diesel buses at all loads. However, the particle number emission factors did not show a statistically significant difference between buses operating on the two types of fuel. In this paper, for the very first time, particle number emission factors are presented at four steady state engine loads for CNG buses. Median values ranged from the order of 1012 particles min-1 at idle to 1015 particles km-1 at full power. Most of the particles observed in the CNG emissions were in the nanoparticle size range and likely to be composed of volatile organic compounds The CO2 emission factors were about 20% to 30% greater for the diesel buses over the CNG buses, while the oxides of nitrogen emission factors did not show any difference due to the large variation between buses.

Long-term trends in fine particle number concentrations in the urban atmosphere of Brisbane : the relevance of traffic emissions and new particle formation

The measurement of submicrometre (< 1.0 m) and ultrafine particles (diameter < 0.1 m) number concentration have attracted attention since the last decade because the potential health impacts associated with exposure to these particles can be more significant than those due to exposure to larger particles. At present, ultrafine particles are not regularly monitored and they are yet to be incorporated into air quality monitoring programs. As a result, very few studies have analysed their long-term and spatial variations in ultrafine particle concentration, and none have been in Australia. To address this gap in scientific knowledge, the aim of this research was to investigate the long-term trends and seasonal variations in particle number concentrations in Brisbane, Australia. Data collected over a five-year period were analysed using weighted regression models. Monthly mean concentrations in the morning (6:00-10:00) and the afternoon (16:00-19:00) were plotted against time in months, using the monthly variance as the weights. During the five-year period, submicrometre and ultrafine particle concentrations increased in the morning by 105.7% and 81.5% respectively whereas in the afternoon there was no significant trend. The morning concentrations were associated with fresh traffic emissions and the afternoon concentrations with the background. The statistical tests applied to the seasonal models, on the other hand, indicated that there was no seasonal component. The spatial variation in size distribution in a large urban area was investigated using particle number size distribution data collected at nine different locations during different campaigns. The size distributions were represented by the modal structures and cumulative size distributions. Particle number peaked at around 30 nm, except at an isolated site dominated by diesel trucks, where the particle number peaked at around 60 nm. It was found that ultrafine particles contributed to 82%-90% of the total particle number. At the sites dominated by petrol vehicles, nanoparticles (< 50 nm) contributed 60%-70% of the total particle number, and at the site dominated by diesel trucks they contributed 50%. Although the sampling campaigns took place during different seasons and were of varying duration these variations did not have an effect on the particle size distributions. The results suggested that the distributions were rather affected by differences in traffic composition and distance to the road. To investigate the occurrence of nucleation events, that is, secondary particle formation from gaseous precursors, particle size distribution data collected over a 13 month period during 5 different campaigns were analysed. The study area was a complex urban environment influenced by anthropogenic and natural sources. The study introduced a new application of time series differencing for the identification of nucleation events. To evaluate the conditions favourable to nucleation, the meteorological conditions and gaseous concentrations prior to and during nucleation events were recorded. Gaseous concentrations did not exhibit a clear pattern of change in concentration. It was also found that nucleation was associated with sea breeze and long-range transport. The implications of this finding are that whilst vehicles are the most important source of ultrafine particles, sea breeze and aged gaseous emissions play a more important role in secondary particle formation in the study area.

Investigating the links between muscle strength, sun exposure, dietary vitamin D intake and the vitamin D status of ambulatory older adults in South East Queensland

Vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency are now seen as a contemporary health problem in Australia with possible widespread health effects not limited to bone health1. Despite this, the Vitamin D status (measured as serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D)) of ambulatory adults has been overlooked in this country. Serum 25(OH)D status is especially important among this group as studies have shown a link between Vitamin D and fall risk in older adults2. Limited data also exists on the contributions of sun exposure via ultraviolet radiation and dietary intake to serum 25(OH)D status in this population. The aims of this project were to assess the serum 25(OH)D status of a group of older ambulatory adults in South East Queensland, to assess the association between their serum 25(OH)D status and functional measures as possible indicators of fall risk, obtain data on the sources of Vitamin D in this population and assess whether this intake was related to serum 25(OH)D status and describe sun protection and exposure behaviors in this group and investigate whether a relationship existed between these and serum 25(OH)D status. The collection of this data assists in addressing key gaps identified in the literature with regard to this population group and their Vitamin D status in Australia. A representative convenience sample of participants (N=47) over 55 years of age was recruited for this cross-sectional, exploratory study which was undertaken in December 2007 in south-east Queensland (Brisbane and Sunshine coast). Participants were required to complete a sun exposure questionnaire in addition to a Calcium and Vitamin D food frequency questionnaire. Timed up and go and handgrip dynamometry tests were used to examine functional capacity. Serum 25(OH)D status and blood measures of Calcium, Phosphorus and Albumin were determined through blood tests. The Mean and Median serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) for all participants in this study was 85.8nmol/L (Standard Deviation 29.7nmol/L) and 81.0nmol/L (Range 22-158nmol/L), respectively. Analysis at the bivariate level revealed a statistically significant relationship between serum 25(OH)D status and location, with participants living on the Sunshine Coast having a mean serum 25(OH)D status 21.3nmol/L higher than participants living in Brisbane (p=0.014). While at the descriptive level there was an apparent trend towards higher outdoor exposure and increasing levels of serum 25(OH)D, no statistically significant associations between the sun measures of outdoor exposure, sun protection behaviors and phenotypic characteristics and serum 25(OH)D status were observed. Intake of both Calcium and Vitamin D was low in this sample with sixty-eight (68%) of participants not meeting the Estimated Average Requirements (EAR) for Calcium (Median=771.0mg; Range=218.0-2616.0mg), while eighty-seven (87%) did not meet the Adequate Intake for Vitamin D (Median=4.46ug; Range=0.13-30.0ug). This raises the question of how realistic meeting the new Adequate Intakes for Vitamin D is, when there is such a low level of Vitamin D fortification in this country. However, participants meeting the Adequate Intake (AI) for Vitamin D were observed to have a significantly higher serum 25(OH)D status compared to those not meeting the AI for Vitamin D (p=0.036), showing that meeting the AI for Vitamin D may play a significant role in determining Vitamin D status in this population. By stratifying our data by categories of outdoor exposure time, a trend was observed between increased importance of Vitamin D dietary intake as a possible determinant of serum 25(OH)D status in participants with lower outdoor exposures. While a trend towards higher Timed Up and Go scores in participants with higher 25(OH) D status was seen, this was only significant for females (p=0.014). Handgrip strength showed statistically significant association with serum 25(OH)D status. The high serum 25(OH)D status in our sample almost certainly explains the limited relationship between functional measures and serum 25(OH)D. However, the observation of an association between slower Time Up and Go speeds, and lower serum 25(OH)D levels, even with a small sample size, is significant as slower Timed Up and Go speeds have been associated with increased fall risk in older adults3. Multivariable regression analysis revealed Location as the only significant determinant of serum 25(OH)D status at p=0.014, with trends (p=>0.1) for higher serum 25(OH)D being shown for participants that met the AI for Vitamin D and rated themselves as having a higher health status. The results of this exploratory study show that 93.6% of participants had adequate 25(OH)D status-possibly due to measurement being taken in the summer season and the convenience nature of the sample. However, many participants do not meet their dietary Calcium and Vitamin D requirements, which may indicate inadequate intake of these nutrients in older Australians and a higher risk of osteoporosis. The relationship between serum 25(OH)D and functional measures in this population also requires further study, especially in older adults displaying Vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency.

On-road ultrafine particle concentration in the M5 East road tunnel, Sydney, Australia

The human health effects following exposure to ultrafine (<100nm) particles (UFPs) produced by fuel combustion, while not completely understood, are generally regarded as detrimental. Road tunnels have emerged as locations where maximum exposure to these particles may occur for the vehicle occupants using them. This study aimed to quantify and investigate the determinants of UFP concentrations in the 4km twin-bore (eastbound and westbound) M5 East tunnel in Sydney, Australia. Sampling was undertaken using a condensation particle counter (CPC) mounted in a vehicle traversing both tunnel bores at various times of day from May through July, 2006. Supplementary measurements were conducted in February, 2008. Over three hundred transects of the tunnel were performed, and these were distributed evenly between the bores. Additional comparative measurements were conducted on a mixed route comprising major roads and shorter tunnels, all within Sydney. Individual trip average UFP concentrations in the M5 East tunnel bores ranged from 5.53 × 104 p cm-3 to 5.95 × 106 p cm-3. Data were sorted by hour of capture, and hourly median trip average (HMA) UFP concentrations ranged from 7.81 × 104 p cm-3 to 1.73 × 106 p cm-3. Hourly median UFP concentrations measured on the mixed route were between 3.71 × 104 p cm-3 and 1.55 × 105 p cm-3. Hourly heavy diesel vehicle (HDV) traffic volume was a very good determinant of UFP concentration in the eastbound tunnel bore (R2 = 0.87), but much less so in the westbound bore (R2 = 0.26). In both bores, the volume of passenger vehicles (i.e. unleaded gasoline-powered vehicles) was a significantly poorer determinant of particle concentration. When compared with similar studies reported previously, the measurements described here were among the highest recorded concentrations, which further highlights the contribution road tunnels may make to the overall UFP exposure of vehicle occupants.

Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.

The influence of MTV

MTV has had a key impact on advertising, not only from the point of view that commercials are aired during its programmes, but also because videos themselves can be viewed as advertisements. Music videos came about as a result of the music industry being in a recession during the early eighties. Initially MTV’s incentive to develop music television was advertiser led (Goodwin, 1992, p.38). One needs to remember that television is in the business to make money - not to entertain (Allen, 1992); and that viewers are in effect sold to the advertisers (White, 1992), and MTV is an influential media forces on their targets audience of between the ages twelve and thirty-four, with a median age of twenty-three (Englis et al., 1994). The reason why MTV is such an effective advertising medium, is that it utilises music, mood, visual elements, popular culture and the socialising effect of television, to sell its message in a susceptible/ passive manner. Its primary goal is to promote the artist or band performing in the video clip, so that consumers will purchase their CDs, as well as other band related products. But more often than not, the video clip sells much more than just that. Lifestyles, fashion, cosmetics, cars, consumer and social behaviour are all promoted in an unsuspecting manner. Advertisers, as a result, have looked to MTV for ideas on how to better communicate with the youth market; adopting similar styles to get their message across. The following looks at how and why, the fusion of MTV and advertising works so well together by considering past research.

CSI Lincoln : an investigation into a declining housing market

The residential property market in New Zealand has been experiencing a boom and bubble period from 2001 through to mid 2007. Following a number of increases in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank and a decline in net migration numbers the housing market was perceived to be over inflated and due for a major correction. Numerous media, Government Departments, property experts and economists have been predicting significant reductions in the median price of residential property throughout New Zealand. This paper will analyse house prices in specific socio-economic locations within Christchurch over the past 12 months to determine how significant the current housing decline is. This study will review the change in residential property prices, variations in property listings since April 2008, sale volumes and days on the market across a range of housing sectors to determine the extent and range of any residential property downturn in the NZ recession.

Psychological treatment dropout among pathological gamblers

Premature dropout from treatments for pathological gambling is potentially of significant importance, if it occurs before substantial progress has been made in addressing the problem. A systematic review of current research on dropout from psychological treatments for pathological gambling identified 12 studies from five countries. Dropout ranged from 14% to 50%, with a median of dropout 26%. Overall, 31% of the participants dropped out of treatment. Few studies distinguish between dropouts at different stages of participation. The evidence on specific variables that predict dropout is limited or inconsistent, and is characterised by a lack of a coherent, gambling-specific model and by methodological problems. Two studies that attempted to apply motivational and compliance-enhancing techniques were found. Both showed promising effects on reduction of dropout and improvement of short-term impact of treatment, but inconsistent results on longer-term outcomes were obtained. The review highlighted a need for more rigorous investigation of the extent of dropout and of variables associated with dropout from pathological gambling treatment programs. Further research on interventions to enhance retention and reduce dropout from psychological treatment is also required.

The prognostic significance of quality of life following breast cancer [Conference Abstract]

Introduction: Evidence suggests a positive association between quality of life (QOL). and overall survival(OS). among metastatic breast cancer (BC). patients, although the relationship in early-stage BC is unclear. This work examines the association between QOL and OS following a diagnosis of early-stage BC. ----- Methods: A population-based sample of Queensland women (n=287). with early-stage, invasive, unilateral BC, were prospectively observed for a median of 6.6 years. QOL was assessed at six and 18 months post-diagnosis using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy, Breast FACT-B+4. questionnaire. Raw scores for the FACT-B+4 scales were computed and individuals were categorised according to whether QOL declined, remained stable or improved over time. OS was measured from the date of diagnosis to the date of death or was censored at the date of last follow-up. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). for the association between QOL and OS were obtained using Cox proportional hazards survival models adjusted for confounding characteristics. ----- Results: A total of 27 (9.4%). women died during the follow-up period. Three baseline QOL scales (emotional, general and overall QOL) were significantly associated with OS, with RRs ranging between 0.89 95% CI: 0.81, 0.98; P=0.01. and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96, 0.99; P=0.03),indicating a 2%-11% reduced risk of death for every one unit increase in QOL. When QOL was categorised according to changes between six and 18 months post-diagnosis, analyses showed that for those who experienced declines in functional and physical QOL, risk of death increased by two- (95% CI: 1.43, 12.52; P<0.01) and four-fold (95% CI: 1.15, 7.19; P=0.02), respectively. Conclusions: This work indicates that specific QOL scales at six months post-diagnosis, and changes in certain QOL scales over the subsequent 12-month period (as measured by the FACT-B+4), are associated with overall survival in women with early-stage breast cancer.