The applicability of biased estimation in model and model order selection

Biased estimation has the advantage of reducing the mean squared error (MSE) of an estimator. The question of interest is how biased estimation affects model selection. In this paper, we introduce biased estimation to a range of model selection criteria. Specifically, we analyze the performance of the minimum description length (MDL) criterion based on biased and unbiased estimation and compare it against modern model selection criteria such as Kay's conditional model order estimator (CME), the bootstrap and the more recently proposed hook-and-loop resampling based model selection. The advantages and limitations of the considered techniques are discussed. The results indicate that, in some cases, biased estimators can slightly improve the selection of the correct model. We also give an example for which the CME with an unbiased estimator fails, but could regain its power when a biased estimator is used.

Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Acoustic identification of 12 species of echolocating bat by discriminant function analysis and artificial neural networks

We recorded echolocation calls from 14 sympatric species of bat in Britain. Once digitised, one temporal and four spectral features were measured from each call. The frequency-time course of each call was approximated by fitting eight mathematical functions, and the goodness of fit, represented by the mean-squared error, was calculated. Measurements were taken using an automated process that extracted a single call from background noise and measured all variables without intervention. Two species of Rhinolophus were easily identified from call duration and spectral measurements. For the remaining 12 species, discriminant function analysis and multilayer back-propagation perceptrons were used to classify calls to species level. Analyses were carried out with and without the inclusion of curve-fitting data to evaluate its usefulness in distinguishing among species. Discriminant function analysis achieved an overall correct classification rate of 79% with curve-fitting data included, while an artificial neural network achieved 87%. The removal of curve-fitting data improved the performance of the discriminant function analysis by 2 %, while the performance of a perceptron decreased by 2 %. However, an increase in correct identification rates when curve-fitting information was included was not found for all species. The use of a hierarchical classification system, whereby calls were first classified to genus level and then to species level, had little effect on correct classification rates by discriminant function analysis but did improve rates achieved by perceptrons. This is the first published study to use artificial neural networks to classify the echolocation calls of bats to species level. Our findings are discussed in terms of recent advances in recording and analysis technologies, and are related to factors causing convergence and divergence of echolocation call design in bats.

Acoustic identification of twelve species of echolocating bat by discriminant function analysis and artificial neural networks

We recorded echolocation calls from 14 sympatric species of bat in Britain. Once digitised, one temporal and four spectral features were measured from each call. The frequency-time course of each call was approximated by fitting eight mathematical functions, and the goodness of fit, represented by the mean-squared error, was calculated. Measurements were taken using an automated process that extracted a single call from background noise and measured all variables without intervention. Two species of Rhinolophus were easily identified from call duration and spectral measurements. For the remaining 12 species, discriminant function analysis and multilayer back-propagation perceptrons were used to classify calls to species level. Analyses were carried out with and without the inclusion of curve-fitting data to evaluate its usefulness in distinguishing among species. Discriminant function analysis achieved an overall correct classification rate of 79% with curve-fitting data included, while an artificial neural network achieved 87%. The removal of curve-fitting data improved the performance of the discriminant function analysis by 2 %, while the performance of a perceptron decreased by 2 %. However, an increase in correct identification rates when curve-fitting information was included was not found for all species. The use of a hierarchical classification system, whereby calls were first classified to genus level and then to species level, had little effect on correct classification rates by discriminant function analysis but did improve rates achieved by perceptrons. This is the first published study to use artificial neural networks to classify the echolocation calls of bats to species level. Our findings are discussed in terms of recent advances in recording and analysis technologies, and are related to factors causing convergence and divergence of echolocation call design in bats.

Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate unconditional skewness. We consider modeling the unconditional mean and variance using models that respond nonlinearly or asymmetrically to shocks. We investigate the implications of these models on the third-moment structure of the marginal distribution as well as conditions under which the unconditional distribution exhibits skewness and nonzero third-order autocovariance structure. In this respect, an asymmetric or nonlinear specification of the conditional mean is found to be of greater importance than the properties of the conditional variance. Several examples are discussed and, whenever possible, explicit analytical expressions provided for all third-order moments and cross-moments. Finally, we introduce a new tool, the shock impact curve, for investigating the impact of shocks on the conditional mean squared error of return series.

Characterization of anomalous relaxation using the time-fractional Bloch equation and multiple echo T2 *-weighted magnetic resonance imaging at 7T

PURPOSE To study the utility of fractional calculus in modeling gradient-recalled echo MRI signal decay in the normal human brain. METHODS We solved analytically the extended time-fractional Bloch equations resulting in five model parameters, namely, the amplitude, relaxation rate, order of the time-fractional derivative, frequency shift, and constant offset. Voxel-level temporal fitting of the MRI signal was performed using the classical monoexponential model, a previously developed anomalous relaxation model, and using our extended time-fractional relaxation model. Nine brain regions segmented from multiple echo gradient-recalled echo 7 Tesla MRI data acquired from five participants were then used to investigate the characteristics of the extended time-fractional model parameters. RESULTS We found that the extended time-fractional model is able to fit the experimental data with smaller mean squared error than the classical monoexponential relaxation model and the anomalous relaxation model, which do not account for frequency shift. CONCLUSIONS We were able to fit multiple echo time MRI data with high accuracy using the developed model. Parameters of the model likely capture information on microstructural and susceptibility-induced changes in the human brain.

An Artificial Neutral Network (ANN) model for predicting biodiesel kinetic viscosity as a function of temperature and chemical compositions

An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a computational modeling tool which has found extensive acceptance in many disciplines for modeling complex real world problems. An ANN can model problems through learning by example, rather than by fully understanding the detailed characteristics and physics of the system. In the present study, the accuracy and predictive power of an ANN was evaluated in predicting kinetic viscosity of biodiesels over a wide range of temperatures typically encountered in diesel engine operation. In this model, temperature and chemical composition of biodiesel were used as input variables. In order to obtain the necessary data for model development, the chemical composition and temperature dependent fuel properties of ten different types of biodiesels were measured experimentally using laboratory standard testing equipments following internationally recognized testing procedures. The Neural Networks Toolbox of MatLab R2012a software was used to train, validate and simulate the ANN model on a personal computer. The network architecture was optimised following a trial and error method to obtain the best prediction of the kinematic viscosity. The predictive performance of the model was determined by calculating the absolute fraction of variance (R2), root mean squared (RMS) and maximum average error percentage (MAEP) between predicted and experimental results. This study found that ANN is highly accurate in predicting the viscosity of biodiesel and demonstrates the ability of the ANN model to find a meaningful relationship between biodiesel chemical composition and fuel properties at different temperature levels. Therefore the model developed in this study can be a useful tool in accurately predict biodiesel fuel properties instead of undertaking costly and time consuming experimental tests.

Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.

Estimation of biodiesel properties from chemical composition – An artificial neural network (ANN) approach

Biodiesel, produced from renewable feedstock represents a more sustainable source of energy and will therefore play a significant role in providing the energy requirements for transportation in the near future. Chemically, all biodiesels are fatty acid methyl esters (FAME), produced from raw vegetable oil and animal fat. However, clear differences in chemical structure are apparent from one feedstock to the next in terms of chain length, degree of unsaturation, number of double bonds and double bond configuration-which all determine the fuel properties of biodiesel. In this study, prediction models were developed to estimate kinematic viscosity of biodiesel using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modelling technique. While developing the model, 27 parameters based on chemical composition commonly found in biodiesel were used as the input variables and kinematic viscosity of biodiesel was used as output variable. Necessary data to develop and simulate the network were collected from more than 120 published peer reviewed papers. The Neural Networks Toolbox of MatLab R2012a software was used to train, validate and simulate the ANN model on a personal computer. The network architecture and learning algorithm were optimised following a trial and error method to obtain the best prediction of the kinematic viscosity. The predictive performance of the model was determined by calculating the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared (RMS) and maximum average error percentage (MAEP) between predicted and experimental results. This study found high predictive accuracy of the ANN in predicting fuel properties of biodiesel and has demonstrated the ability of the ANN model to find a meaningful relationship between biodiesel chemical composition and fuel properties. Therefore the model developed in this study can be a useful tool to accurately predict biodiesel fuel properties instead of undertaking costly and time consuming experimental tests.

Prediction of GMA welding characteristic parameter by artificial neural network system

Nowadays, demand for automated Gas metal arc welding (GMAW) is growing and consequently need for intelligent systems is increased to ensure the accuracy of the procedure. To date, welding pool geometry has been the most used factor in quality assessment of intelligent welding systems. But, it has recently been found that Mahalanobis Distance (MD) not only can be used for this purpose but also is more efficient. In the present paper, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) has been used for prediction of MD parameter. However, advantages and disadvantages of other methods have been discussed. The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm was found to be the most effective algorithm for GMAW process. It is known that the number of neurons plays an important role in optimal network design. In this work, using trial and error method, it has been found that 30 is the optimal number of neurons. The model has been investigated with different number of layers in Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) architecture and has been shown that for the aim of this work the optimal result is obtained when using MLP with one layer. Robustness of the system has been evaluated by adding noise into the input data and studying the effect of the noise in prediction capability of the network. The experiments for this study were conducted in an automated GMAW setup that was integrated with data acquisition system and prepared in a laboratory for welding of steel plate with 12 mm in thickness. The accuracy of the network was evaluated by Root Mean Squared (RMS) error between the measured and the estimated values. The low error value (about 0.008) reflects the good accuracy of the model. Also the comparison of the predicted results by ANN and the test data set showed very good agreement that reveals the predictive power of the model. Therefore, the ANN model offered in here for GMA welding process can be used effectively for prediction goals.

Assessment of body composition in Sri Lankan children: Validation of a bioelectrical impedance prediction equation

Objective: To develop bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations to predict total body water (TBW) and fat-free mass (FFM) of Sri Lankan children. Subjects/Methods: Data were collected from 5- to 15-year-old healthy children. They were randomly assigned to validation (M/F: 105/83) and cross-validation (M/F: 53/41) groups. Height, weight and BIA were measured. TBW was assessed using isotope dilution method (D2 O). Multiple regression analysis was used to develop preliminary equations and cross-validated on an independent group. Final prediction equation was constructed combining the two groups and validated by PRESS (prediction of sum of squares) statistics. Impedance index (height2/impedance; cm2/Ω), weight and sex code (male = 1; female = 0) were used as variables. Results: Independent variables of the final prediction equation for TBW were able to predict 86.3% of variance with root means-squared error (RMSE) of 2.1l. PRESS statistics was 2.1l with press residuals of 1.2l. Independent variables were able to predict 86.9% of variance of FFM with RMSE of 2.7 kg. PRESS statistics was 2.8 kg with press residuals of 1.4 kg. Bland Altman technique showed that the majority of the residuals were within mean bias±1.96 s.d. Conclusions: Results of this study provide BIA equation for the prediction of TBW and FFM in Sri Lankan children. To the best of our knowledge there are no published BIA prediction equations validated on South Asian populations. Results of this study need to be affirmed by more studies on other closely related populations by using multi-component body composition assessment.

Dopamine and visually regulated eye growth in chick

Retinal image properties such as contrast and spatial frequency play important roles in the development of normal vision. For example, visual environments comprised solely of low contrast and/or low spatial frequencies induce myopia. The visual image is processed by the retina and it then locally controls eye growth. In terms of the retinal neurotransmitters that link visual stimuli to eye growth, there is strong evidence to suggest involvement of the retinal dopamine (DA) system. For example, effectively increasing retinal DA levels by using DA agonists can suppress the development of form-deprivation myopia (FDM). However, whether visual feedback controls eye growth by modulating retinal DA release, and/or some other factors, is still being elucidated. This thesis is chiefly concerned with the relationship between the dopaminergic system and retinal image properties in eye growth control. More specifically, whether the amount of retinal DA release reduces as the complexity of the image degrades was determined. For example, we investigated whether the level of retinal DA release decreased as image contrast decreased. In addition, the effects of spatial frequency, spatial energy distribution slope, and spatial phase on retinal DA release and eye growth were examined. When chicks were 8-days-old, a cone-lens imaging system was applied monocularly (+30 D, 3.3 cm cone). A short-term treatment period (6 hr) and a longer-term treatment period (4.5 days) were used. The short-term treatment tests for the acute reduction in DA release by the visual stimulus, as is seen with diffusers and lenses, whereas the 4.5 day point tests for reduction in DA release after more prolonged exposure to the visual stimulus. In the contrast study, 1.35 cyc/deg square wave grating targets of 95%, 67%, 45%, 12% or 4.2% contrast were used. Blank (0% contrast) targets were included for comparison. In the spatial frequency study, both sine and square wave grating targets with either 0.017 cyc/deg and 0.13 cyc/deg fundamental spatial frequencies and 95% contrast were used. In the spectral slope study, 30% root-mean-squared (RMS) contrast fractal noise targets with spectral fall-off of 1/f0.5, 1/f and 1/f2 were used. In the spatial alignment study, a structured Maltese cross (MX) target, a structured circular patterned (C) target and the scrambled versions of these two targets (SMX and SC) were used. Each treatment group comprised 6 chicks for ocular biometry (refraction and ocular dimension measurement) and 4 for analysis of retinal DA release. Vitreal dihydroxyphenylacetic acid (DOPAC) was analysed through ion-paired reversed phase high performance liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection (HPLC-ED), as a measure of retinal DA release. For the comparison between retinal DA release and eye growth, large reductions in retinal DA release possibly due to the decreased light level inside the cone-lens imaging system were observed across all treated eyes while only those exposed to low contrast, low spatial frequency sine wave grating, 1/f2, C and SC targets had myopic shifts in refraction. Amongst these treatment groups, no acute effect was observed and longer-term effects were only found in the low contrast and 1/f2 groups. These findings suggest that retinal DA release does not causally link visual stimuli properties to eye growth, and these target induced changes in refractive development are not dependent on the level of retinal DA release. Retinal dopaminergic cells might be affected indirectly via other retinal cells that immediately respond to changes in the image contrast of the retinal image.

Effect of orthokeratology on peripheral aberrations of the eye

Purpose: To investigate the effect of orthokeratology on peripheral aberrations in two myopic volunteers. Methods: The subjects wore reverse geometry orthokeratology lenses overnight and were monitored for 2 weeks of wear. They underwent corneal topography, peripheral refraction (out to ±34° along the horizontal visual field) and peripheral aberration measurements across the 42° × 32° central visual field using a modified Hartmann-Shack aberrometer. Results: Spherical equivalent refraction was corrected for the central 25° of the visual fields beyond which it gradually returned to its preorthokeratology values. There were increases in axial coma, spherical aberration, higher order root mean square aberrations, and total root-mean-squared aberrations (excluding defocus). The rates of change of vertical and horizontal coma across the field changed in sign. Total root mean square aberrations showed a quadratic rate of change across the visual field which was greater subsequent to orthokeratology. Conclusion: Although orthokeratology can correct peripheral relative hypermetropia it induces dramatic increases in higher-order aberrations across the field

Modeling videokeratoscopic height data with spherical harmonics

Purpose: All currently considered parametric models used for decomposing videokeratoscopy height data are viewercentered and hence describe what the operator sees rather than what the surface is. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the applicability of an object-centered representation to modeling of corneal surfaces. Methods: A three-dimensional surface decomposition into a series of spherical harmonics is considered and compared with the traditional Zernike polynomial expansion for a range of videokeratoscopic height data. Results: Spherical harmonic decomposition led to significantly better fits to corneal surfaces (in terms of the root mean square error values) than the corresponding Zernike polynomial expansions with the same number of coefficients, for all considered corneal surfaces, corneal diameters, and model orders. Conclusions: Spherical harmonic decomposition is a viable alternative to Zernike polynomial decomposition. It achieves better fits to videokeratoscopic height data and has the advantage of an object-centered representation that could be particularly suited to the analysis of multiple corneal measurements.

The modulation of outdoor running speed : the influence of gradient

This thesis aimed to investigate the way in which distance runners modulate their speed in an effort to understand the key processes and determinants of speed selection when encountering hills in natural outdoor environments. One factor which has limited the expansion of knowledge in this area has been a reliance on the motorized treadmill which constrains runners to constant speeds and gradients and only linear paths. Conversely, limits in the portability or storage capacity of available technology have restricted field research to brief durations and level courses. Therefore another aim of this thesis was to evaluate the capacity of lightweight, portable technology to measure running speed in outdoor undulating terrain. The first study of this thesis assessed the validity of a non-differential GPS to measure speed, displacement and position during human locomotion. Three healthy participants walked and ran over straight and curved courses for 59 and 34 trials respectively. A non-differential GPS receiver provided speed data by Doppler Shift and change in GPS position over time, which were compared with actual speeds determined by chronometry. Displacement data from the GPS were compared with a surveyed 100m section, while static positions were collected for 1 hour and compared with the known geodetic point. GPS speed values on the straight course were found to be closely correlated with actual speeds (Doppler shift: r = 0.9994, p < 0.001, Δ GPS position/time: r = 0.9984, p < 0.001). Actual speed errors were lowest using the Doppler shift method (90.8% of values within ± 0.1 m.sec -1). Speed was slightly underestimated on a curved path, though still highly correlated with actual speed (Doppler shift: r = 0.9985, p < 0.001, Δ GPS distance/time: r = 0.9973, p < 0.001). Distance measured by GPS was 100.46 ± 0.49m, while 86.5% of static points were within 1.5m of the actual geodetic point (mean error: 1.08 ± 0.34m, range 0.69-2.10m). Non-differential GPS demonstrated a highly accurate estimation of speed across a wide range of human locomotion velocities using only the raw signal data with a minimal decrease in accuracy around bends. This high level of resolution was matched by accurate displacement and position data. Coupled with reduced size, cost and ease of use, the use of a non-differential receiver offers a valid alternative to differential GPS in the study of overground locomotion. The second study of this dissertation examined speed regulation during overground running on a hilly course. Following an initial laboratory session to calculate physiological thresholds (VO2 max and ventilatory thresholds), eight experienced long distance runners completed a self- paced time trial over three laps of an outdoor course involving uphill, downhill and level sections. A portable gas analyser, GPS receiver and activity monitor were used to collect physiological, speed and stride frequency data. Participants ran 23% slower on uphills and 13.8% faster on downhills compared with level sections. Speeds on level sections were significantly different for 78.4 ± 7.0 seconds following an uphill and 23.6 ± 2.2 seconds following a downhill. Speed changes were primarily regulated by stride length which was 20.5% shorter uphill and 16.2% longer downhill, while stride frequency was relatively stable. Oxygen consumption averaged 100.4% of runner’s individual ventilatory thresholds on uphills, 78.9% on downhills and 89.3% on level sections. Group level speed was highly predicted using a modified gradient factor (r2 = 0.89). Individuals adopted distinct pacing strategies, both across laps and as a function of gradient. Speed was best predicted using a weighted factor to account for prior and current gradients. Oxygen consumption (VO2) limited runner’s speeds only on uphill sections, and was maintained in line with individual ventilatory thresholds. Running speed showed larger individual variation on downhill sections, while speed on the level was systematically influenced by the preceding gradient. Runners who varied their pace more as a function of gradient showed a more consistent level of oxygen consumption. These results suggest that optimising time on the level sections after hills offers the greatest potential to minimise overall time when running over undulating terrain. The third study of this thesis investigated the effect of implementing an individualised pacing strategy on running performance over an undulating course. Six trained distance runners completed three trials involving four laps (9968m) of an outdoor course involving uphill, downhill and level sections. The initial trial was self-paced in the absence of any temporal feedback. For the second and third field trials, runners were paced for the first three laps (7476m) according to two different regimes (Intervention or Control) by matching desired goal times for subsections within each gradient. The fourth lap (2492m) was completed without pacing. Goals for the Intervention trial were based on findings from study two using a modified gradient factor and elapsed distance to predict the time for each section. To maintain the same overall time across all paced conditions, times were proportionately adjusted according to split times from the self-paced trial. The alternative pacing strategy (Control) used the original split times from this initial trial. Five of the six runners increased their range of uphill to downhill speeds on the Intervention trial by more than 30%, but this was unsuccessful in achieving a more consistent level of oxygen consumption with only one runner showing a change of more than 10%. Group level adherence to the Intervention strategy was lowest on downhill sections. Three runners successfully adhered to the Intervention pacing strategy which was gauged by a low Root Mean Square error across subsections and gradients. Of these three, the two who had the largest change in uphill-downhill speeds ran their fastest overall time. This suggests that for some runners the strategy of varying speeds systematically to account for gradients and transitions may benefit race performances on courses involving hills. In summary, a non – differential receiver was found to offer highly accurate measures of speed, distance and position across the range of human locomotion speeds. Self-selected speed was found to be best predicted using a weighted factor to account for prior and current gradients. Oxygen consumption limited runner’s speeds only on uphills, speed on the level was systematically influenced by preceding gradients, while there was a much larger individual variation on downhill sections. Individuals were found to adopt distinct but unrelated pacing strategies as a function of durations and gradients, while runners who varied pace more as a function of gradient showed a more consistent level of oxygen consumption. Finally, the implementation of an individualised pacing strategy to account for gradients and transitions greatly increased runners’ range of uphill-downhill speeds and was able to improve performance in some runners. The efficiency of various gradient-speed trade- offs and the factors limiting faster downhill speeds will however require further investigation to further improve the effectiveness of the suggested strategy.